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山岡耕春座長 提供資料
委員提供資料 山岡 耕春 座長 提供資料 －1－ 2009ᖺ䝷䜽䜲䝷䛾ᆅ㟈䛸 ᐇ⏝ⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛻㛵䛩䜛ᅜ㝿ጤဨ Operational Earthquake Forecasting State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization by International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) ྡྂᒇᏛ⎔ቃᏛ◊✲⛉ᆅ㟈ⅆᒣ◊✲䝉䞁䝍䞊 ᒣᒸ⪔ Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection Thomas H. Jordan 䠄ᗙ㛗 ༡䜹䝸䝣䜷䝹䝙䜰Ꮫ䠅 Yun-Tai Chen 䠄୰ᅜᆅ㟈ᒁ䠅 Paolo Gasparini, 䠄ົᒁ 䝘䝫䝸Ꮫ䠅 Raul Madariaga 䠄䝟䝸㧗➼ᖌ⠊Ꮫᰯ䠅 Ian Main 䠄䜶䝆䞁䝞䝷Ꮫ䠅 Warner Marzocchi 䠄䜲䝍䝸䜰ᅜ❧ⅆᒣᆅ⌫≀⌮◊✲ᡤ䠅 Gerassimos Papadopoulos 䠄䜰䝔䝛ᅜ❧ほ ᡤ䠅 Gennady Sobolev 䠄䝻䝅䜰⛉Ꮫ㝔䠅 Koshun Yamaoka 䠄ྡྂᒇᏛ䠅 Jochen Zschau 䠄䝗䜲䝒ᆅ⌫⛉Ꮫ◊✲䝉䞁䝍䞊䠅 ጤဨタ❧䛾⫼ᬒ 2009.4.6 䝷䜽䜲䝷ᆅ㟈(Mw6.3) Ṛ⪅⣙300䚸༙ቯ20000Ჷ䚸㑊㞴65000ே άⓎ䛺๓㟈䜢క䛳䛶䛔䛯 ᆅඖ䛾◊✲⪅䛾䝷䝗䞁ほ 䛻䜘䜛䛂ᆅ㟈ண▱Ⓨ⾲䛃䛻䜘䜛ΰ INGV䜔ᕷẸᏳᒁ䠄DPC䠅䛻䜘䜛ⅆᾘ䛧ሗ ጤဨ䛾䝭䝑䝅䝵䞁 ᆅ㟈䛾▷ᮇண▱䛸ண 䛻㛵䛩䜛▱ぢ䛾ᩚ⌮ つᶍᆅ㟈䛾ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗☜⋡ホ౯䛾⏝ ᆅ㟈䛾᭷ຊ䛺๓⌧㇟䜢ά⏝䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾䜺䜲䝗䝷䜲䞁䛾ᥦ♧ ᭱⤊ሗ࿌᭩䜢2011.5.20 䛻DPC䛻ᥦฟ+බ⾲ (Annals of Geophysics, 54,4,2011; doi;10.4401 / ag-5350) 䝃䝬䝸䞊䛸ᥦゝ䠖2009.10.2䛻グ⪅Ⓨ⾲ ⱥヂ䛿௨ୗ䛾䝃䜲䝖䛻䛒䜛 http://www.protezionecivile.it/cms/attach/ex_sum_fi nale_eng1.pdf ヂ䛿ᆅ㟈Ꮫ䝙䝳䞊䝈䝺䝍䞊䠄Vol.21 No.6䠅䛻ᥖ㍕ ㆟䠄䛺䜒䛾䠅 䠎䠌䠌䠕䠊䠑䠊䠍䠎䠍䠏 䝷䜽䜲䝷 䠎䠌䠌䠕䠊䠔䠊䠏䠍䠕䠊䠎 䝻䞊䝬 䠎䠌䠌䠕䠊䠕䠊䠏䠌䠍䠌䠊䠎 䝷䜽䜲䝷 1 －2－ Ỵᐃㄽ䛛䜙☜⋡ㄽ䜈 ゝⴥ䛾ᐃ⩏ ண▱䠖Ỵᐃㄽⓗ ண 䠖☜⋡ㄽⓗ ᆅ㟈䛾Ⓨ⏕㐣⛬䛿ኚ」㞧 デ᩿ⓗ๓䛻䜘䜛Ỵᐃㄽⓗண▱䛿ᅔ㞴 ☜⋡ⓗ䞉ᐃ㔞ⓗண 䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜛 ᐇ⏝ⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛾⌧≧ ᐇ⏝ⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛾┠ⓗ ₯ᅾⓗ䛻㉳䛣䜚䛖䜛◚ቯⓗᆅ㟈䛻ඛ䛰䛳䛶ពᚿỴᐃ䛷 䛝䜛䜘䛖䛻䚸ᆅᇦ♫䛻ᑐ䛧ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾 ሗ䜢ᥦ౪䛩䜛䛣䛸 䜲䝍䝸䜰䛾ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑 䝥䠄INGV) ᪥ᮏ䛾ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥䠄ᆅ 㟈ᮏ㒊䠅 㛫㠀౫Ꮡ䛾ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥 䜼䝸䝅䝱䚸䜲䝍䝸䜰䚸䝻䝅䜰 㛫౫Ꮡ䛾ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥 ᪥ᮏ䚸୰ᅜ䚸⡿ᅜ ᆅ㟈άື䛻ᇶ䛵䛟▷ᮇண 䜹䝸䝣䜷䝹䝙䜰ᕞ 䜹䝸䝣䜷䝹䝙䜰ᕞ䛾ᆅ㟈▷ ᮇண ᅗ䠄ETH, SCEC, USGS) 2 ICEF䝺䝫䞊䝖䛾⫼ᬒ 䞊 L’Aquila ᆅ㟈 • • • • • 2009/6/3 3:32AM (Local Time) Abruzzo region㤳㒔䛾 L’Aquila ㏆ഐ䛜㟈※ Mw 6.3 Ṛ⪅300ே䚸⿕ᐖᐙᒇ20000Ჷ䚸65000ே䛜ᐙ䜢ኻ䛖 ከ䛟䛾Ṕྐⓗᘓ㐀≀䛻⿕ᐖ 䠄ICEF䝺䝫䞊䝖䜘䜚䠅 3 －3－ 㻸䇻㻭㼝㼡㼕㼘㼍㻌ᆅ㟈䛾㟈※䛸䜲䝍䝸䜰䛾☜⋡ⓗᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥 䠑䠌ᖺ㛫䛾䠍䠌䠂䛾☜⋡䛷䛷㉸䛘䜛ຍ㏿ᗘ䜢⾲♧ INGV April 6 L'Aquila Eq. 4 ๓㟈䞉ᮏ㟈䞉వ㟈䛾㟈※ศᕸ 䠄ICEF䝺䝫䞊䝖䜘䜚䠅 5 －4－ ICEF䝺䝫䞊䝖䛾⫼ᬒ 䞊 䛂ᆅ㟈ண▱䛃 㻞㻜㻜㻥ᖺ䠍᭶䛛䜙⩌Ⓨᆅ㟈䛜Ⓨ⏕ ఫẸ䛿ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕䜢ᚰ㓄 䊻 Ꮫᰯ䛾㑊㞴䜔䛭䛾ᑐ⟇䛜䛺䛥䜜䜛 䠏᭶䠏䠌᪥ 㻹㻠㻚㻝㻘㻌㻹㻟㻚㻡㻘㻌㻹㻟㻚㻥䛾ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕ ᆅඖ䛾◊✲⪅䛜䝷䝗䞁ほ 䜢ඖ䛻䛂ᆅ㟈ண▱䛃䚹♫ⓗ㛵ᚰ䜢㞟䜑䜛䚹 䠏᭶䠏䠍᪥䛻㻯㻳㻾䠄つᶍ⅏ᐖᑐ⟇ጤဨ䠅䛜ྜ䚹䛂䛝䛺ᆅ㟈䛻䛴䛺䛜䜛⌮⏤ 䛿䛺䛔䛃䛸⤖ㄽ • 䠐᭶䠒᪥ 㻹㻢㻚㻟㻌 㻸䇻㻭㼝㼡㼕㼘㼍㻌㼑㼍㼞㼠㼔㼝㼡㼍㼗㼑 • • • • • 䛴䛝䛴䛡䜙䜜䛯ㄢ㢟䠄㻵㻯㻱㻲㻌㼞㼑㼜㼛㼞㼠䜘䜚䠅 • 䛝䛺ᆅ㟈䛸వ㟈䜢ண 䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻᭱䜒Ⰻ䛔⛉Ꮫⓗ᪉ἲ䛿ఱ䛛 • ᆅ㟈䜢䚸㜵⅏䛻ᙺ❧䛴⛬ᗘ䛻▷ᮇⓗ䛻ண 䛩䜛䛣䛸䛿ྍ⬟䛛 • ᆅ㟈䛾ண ሗ䜢䚸ᨻᗓ䛜㜵⅏䛻ᙺ❧䛶䜛䛯䜑䛻䛿䛹䛖䛧䛯䜙䜘䛔䛛 • 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᆅ㟈ண ሗ䜢ὶ㏻䛥䛫䛯䜙䜘䛔䛛 6 䜲䝍䝸䜰㜵⅏ᒁ(DPC)䛾ㅎၥෆᐜ 䛸 ᅜ㝿ጤဨ䠄ICEF)䛾᪉㔪 䈄 ㅎၥෆᐜ 䇵 ⌧Ⅼ䛻䛚䛡䜛䚸ᆅ㟈䛾ண 䛸▷ᮇண▱䛻䛴䛔䛶䛾▱ぢ䜢ᩚ⌮ 䛩䜛 䇵 ๓⌧㇟㻔㻲㼛㼞㼑㼞㼡㼚㼚㼑㼞㼟㻕䜢㜵⅏䛻䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᙺ❧䛶䛯䜙䜘䛔䛛䚹 • ᳨ウ᪉㔪 • ᆅ㟈ண▱䛸ண 䛻㛵䛩䜛⛉Ꮫ䛾⌧≧䛸䛭䜜䜙䛜㜵⅏䛻㈉⊩䛷䛝 䜛⛬ᗘ䜢ホ౯䛩䜛 • ᆅ㟈䛜άⓎ䛺ᅜ䛻䛡䜛䚸ᐇ⏝ⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛾⌧≧䜢ホ౯䛩䜛 • ᪂䛯䛺⛉Ꮫⓗ▱ぢ䜢ᐇ⏝ⓗ䛺ᆅ㟈ண ᡭἲ䛸䛧䛶䛘䜛䜘䛖䛻 䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾䝻䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥䜢♧䛩䚹 • ᖹ᫆䛺ゝⴥ䛷່࿌䜢ฟ䛩䚹 7 －5－ ICEF䝺䝫䞊䝖䛾ෆᐜ 䜎䛘䛜䛝䛛䜙 Operational earthquake forecasting䛾⪃䛘᪉ 1. ᑗ᮶Ⓨ⏕䛧䛖䜛⿕ᐖᆅ㟈䛻㛵䛩䜛⥅⥆ⓗ䛺බᘧሗ䛾᭦᪂ 2. ⅏ᐖ㍍ῶᑐ⟇䛾䛯䜑䛾බᘧሗ䛾Ⓨಙ 䈄 බᘧሗ䛾↓䛔䛸䛣䜝䛷䚸◊✲⪅䛸ᕷẸ䜈㠀බᘧ䛾ሗ䛾䜔䜚䛸䜚䛜䛒䜚䚸ΰ䜢䜎䛽䛟䚹 䈄 䜲䝍䝸䜰䛾⛉Ꮫ⪅䛿䜎䛥䛻ᐇ⏝ⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛾ᚲせᛶ䛻㏕䜙䜜䛶䛚䜚䚸䛣䛾䝺䝫䞊䝖䜢సᡂ䛧䛯䚹 䈄 㻯㼞㼕㼟㼠㼑㼏㼔㼡㼞㼏㼔䜔㼀㼛㼔㼛㼗㼡䛾ᆅ㟈䛾๓䛻ᇳ➹䛥䜜䛯䛜䚸䛣䜜䜙䛾ᆅ㟈䜒㛫౫Ꮡ䛩䜛ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗 ሗ䛾ᚲせᛶ䜢♧䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 1. Introduction 䠄䠑䝨䞊䝆䠅 2. Science of Earthquake Forecasting and Prediction䠄28䝨䞊䝆䠅 3. Status of Operational Earthquake Forecasting䠄11䝨䞊䝆䠅 ୰ᅜ䞉䜼䝸䝅䝱䞉䜲䝍䝸䜰䞉᪥ᮏ䞉䝻䝅䜰䞉䜰䝯䝸䜹 – 4. Key Findings and Recommendation 䠄䠑䝨䞊䝆䠅 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 5. Need for Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting Earthquake Monitoring Research on Earthquake Predictability Development of Long Term Forecasting Models Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Verification of Earthquake Forecasting Methods Utilization of Earthquake Forecasts Public Communication of Earthquake Information Roadmap for Implementation䠄䠎䝨䞊䝆䠅 1. 2. Underway Outstanding Action 8 ᅜ㝿ጤဨ䛾DPC䜈䛾່࿌ A. ☜⋡ㄽⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛾ά⏝ 䞉ᚲせ䛺䜲䞁䝣䝷䛸ᑓ㛛ⓗ▱㆑䜢ྲྀ䜚ධ䜜䜛䜉䛝 B. ᆅ㟈䛾䝰䝙䝍䝸䞁䜾 䞉DPC䛜ᆅ㟈Ꮫⓗ䞉 ᆅᏛⓗ䝕䞊䝍䜢㞟䜑䜙䜜䜛 䜘䛖䛻䛩䜉䛝 䞉㟈※䛸䜂䛪䜏㏿ᗘ䝬䝑䝥䛾㐺䛺సᡂ䛜䛷䛝䜛 䜘䛖䛻䛩䜛 䞉ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕䝥䝻䝉䝇◊✲䛾䛯䜑䛾䛂ኳ↛䛾ᐇ㦂ሙ䛃 䜢タ❧䛩䜛ᶵ䜢ᨭ䛩䜛䜉䛝 C. ᆅ㟈ண▱ྍ⬟ᛶ 䞉ᆅ㟈ཬ䜃ᆅ㟈ண▱ྍ⬟ᛶ䛻㛵䛩䜛ᇶ♏◊✲䝥䝻 䜾䝷䝮䜢䚸䝞䝷䞁䝇䛾ྲྀ䜜䛯ᅜᐙ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛾 ୍㒊䛸䛧䛶ᐇ䛩䜉䛝 D. 㛗ᮇண 䝰䝕䝹䛾㛤Ⓨ 䞉㛫㠀౫Ꮡ䚸㛫౫Ꮡ䛾ண 䝰䝕䝹䜢㛤Ⓨ䛩䜛 䛯䜑䛾◊✲䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䜢⥅⥆䛩䜉䛝 F. ᐇ⏝ண ᡭἲ䛾᳨ド 䞉䝕䞊䝍䛸↷ྜ䛧䛯⛉Ꮫⓗ᳨ド䜢ᚋ䜝ྥ䛝䛸๓ྥ䛝 䛾୧᪉䛻ᑐ䛧䛶⾜䛖䜉䛝 䞉ᆅ㟈ண ᡭἲ䛾๓ྥ䛝ヨ㦂䛾䛯䜑䛾ᅜ㝿䜲䞁䝣 䝷䜢᳨ド䝒䞊䝹䛸䛧䛶⏝䛩䜉䛝 G. ᆅ㟈ண 䛾ά⏝ 䞉ண ᡭἲ䛾ホ౯䛸ゎ㔘䛾䛯䜑䚸ᑓ㛛ᐙ➼䛻䜘䜛 ⊂❧䛧䛯ጤဨ䜢タ䛩䜉䛝 䞉ᆅ㟈☜⋡䛜㜈್䜢㉸䛘䛯㝿䛻ྲྀ䜛䜉䛝㜵⅏⾜ື 䜢ྵ䜑䛯ពᚿỴᐃ䛾䛯䜑䛻䚸ᐃ㔞ⓗ䛷㏱᫂ᛶ 䛾䛒䜛ᡭ㡰䜢☜❧䛩䜉䛝 H. ୍⯡ᕷẸ䜈䛾ᆅ㟈ሗ䛾ఏ㐩 䞉ሗఏ㐩䛻㛵䛩䜛♫⛉Ꮫⓗཎ๎䛻ᚑ䛔䚸☜⋡ ⓗᆅ㟈ண 䛻㛵䛩䜛ሗ䜢⥅⥆ⓗ䛻ఏ䛘䜛䜉 䛝 E. ▷ᮇண 䝰䝕䝹䛾㛤Ⓨ 䞉DPC䛿వ㟈䜢ண 䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾ᐇ⏝⬟ຊ䜢㓄ഛ䛩 䜛䜉䛝 䞉DPC䛿ᆅ㟈άື䛾ኚ䛻ᇶ䛵䛟ᆅ㟈ண ᡭἲ 䛾㛤Ⓨ䜢ᨭ䛩䜉䛝 9 －6－ 䛂ᥦ䛃䛾⪃䛘᪉䠄ᢤ⢋䠅 • ண▱䛸ண 䜢ᐃ⩏䛩䜛 – Prediction䠄ண▱䠅䠙 Ỵᐃㄽⓗ – Forecast䠄ண 䠅 䠙 ☜⋡ⓗ • ண 䛿☜⋡䛜⏝䛔䜙䜜䜛䜉䛝䛷䛒䜛 – Ỵᐃㄽⓗண▱䛿ᅔ㞴䛷䛒䜛 • ಙ㢗䛷䛝䜛デ᩿ⓗ๓⌧㇟(Diagnostic Precursor䠅䛿ぢ䛴䛛䛳䛶䛔䛺䛔 • 䛭䜜䛷䜒ᇶ♏ⓗ◊✲䛿⥅⥆䛩䜉䛝䛷䛒䜛 • 䛂䜖䛳䛟䜚䛸䛧䛯ື䛝䛃䛻ὀ┠䛩䜉䛝 • ᐇ⏝ⓗண 䝰䝕䝹䛿㛗ᮇⓗᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗ண 䛻ẚ㍑䛧䛶☜⋡ᚓ䛾䛒 䜛䝰䝕䝹䛷䛺䛡䜜䜀䛺䜙䛺䛔 – ண ἲ䛾ホ౯ᇶ‽䛜ᚲせ – Retrospective䛻ຍ䛘prospectiveホ౯䛜㔜せ • ண 䛾ホ౯ – 䛂ሙᡤ䛃䛂つᶍ䛃䛂ᮇ䛃䛾⠊ᅖ䜢Ỵ䜑䚸ண 䛾ᡂ⦼䜢ホ౯䛩䜛 – 䛂㛗ᮇホ౯䠄ண 䠅=ᅛ᭷ᆅ㟈䝰䝕䝹 and/or GR䛃䛻ᑐ䛧䛶☜⋡ᚓ䛜䛒䜛䛣 䛸䜢♧䛩 – ᇶ‽䜢Ỵ䜑䚸ᑗ᮶ண 䛷ホ౯䛩䜛 • 䠄䝀䞊䝮䛾㏵୰䛷䝹䞊䝹䜢ኚ䛘䛺䛔䠅 10 ྛᅜ䛾≧ἣ 䜲䝍䝸䜰 • • – Department of Civil Protection (DPC) – ᆅ᪉䝺䝧䝹䛷䛿ᑐฎ䛷䛝䛺䛔⅏ᐖ䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜛 – ⛉Ꮫⓗホ౯䛿CGR䠄National Commission for the Prediction and Prevention of Major Hazards)䛜ᢸᙜ • – • ୰ᅜ 㜵⅏䛾䛯䜑බᘧ䛾ᆅ㟈ሗ䜢ฟ䛩⤌⧊䛿 䠎䠍ே䛾ጤဨ䠄ᆅ㟈䞉᰾䞉ⅆᒣ䞉㢼Ỉᐖ䞉Ꮫ䞉㐠 ㍺䞉ᩥ㑇⏘䞉ᗣ⿕ᐖ䛻ᑐᛂ䠅 ᆅ㟈䞉ⅆᒣ䛾ほ 䞉◊✲䛿INGV䠄Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)䛜ᢸᙜ • ᆅ㟈䜔ⅆᒣ䛾ほ • ᆅ㟈䜔ⅆᒣ䝝䝄䞊䝗䛾ホ౯䠄ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑 䝥䛾సᡂ䛺䛹䠅 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ᐇ⏝ⓗண 䛜䛺䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䛛 – • ᘓ⠏ᇶ‽ἲ䠄2008)䛾సᡂ䛾ᇶ♏䝕䞊䝍䛸䛺䜛 • ᆅ㟈άື䞉ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕ྍ⬟ᛶ䞉ᆅ㟈Ἴ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊 ఏ㐩䜢⪃៖ • 㛫䛻౫Ꮡ䛧䛺䛔䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥䠄ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕䛿䝫 䜰䝋䞁㐣⛬䠅 • ά᩿ᒙㄪᰝ䛿㐍⾜୰ 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᕷẸ䛻ఏ䛘䜙䜜䜛䛛 • 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺Ⓨᒎ䛜ᮇᚅ䛥䜜䜛䛛 • • Long-term seismic hazard map (2004) • – • 㜵⅏䛾䛯䜑බᘧ䛾ᆅ㟈ሗ䜢ฟ䛩⤌⧊䛿 – China Earthquake Administration (CEA) – ᖺ䠍ᅇ䛾㆟䛷ྛ✀ほ 䝕䞊䝍䛾ホ౯䛸ண 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ᐇ⏝ⓗண 䛜䛺䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䛛 – 㛗ᮇ䞉୰ᮇ䞉▷ᮇ䞉┤๓ண 䜢⾜䛳䛶䛔䜛 – Seismic Intensity Zonation Map (ver.3) – ྛ✀ほ 䝕䞊䝍䜢⏝䛔䚸⤒㦂䛻䜘䜛ᆅ㟈ண▱ 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᕷẸ䛻ఏ䛘䜙䜜䜛䛛 – Act on the Management of Earthquake Prediction – ᆅ㟈ண▱䞉ண 䛾ᡭ⥆䛝䜢ᐃ䜑䜛 – ᑓ㛛ᐙ䛾ᙺ䛸㠀ᑓ㛛ᐙ䛾ᆅ㟈ண▱䛻䜘䜛♫䝁䝇 䝖䜢ᢚ䛘䜛 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺Ⓨᒎ䛜ᮇᚅ䛥䜜䜛䛛 – ᆅ㟈ண▱䛾㞴䛧䛥䛻┤㠃 – ほ 䝕䞊䝍䛻䜘䜛ᆅ㟈䛾⌮ゎ䜢䛩䛩䜑䜛 Web䛻䜘䜛ሗබ㛤䠄ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥䠅 11 －7－ ྛᅜ䛾≧ἣ 䜼䝸䝅䝱 • – – • Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO) • • 䝻䝅䜰 㜵⅏䛾䛯䜑බᘧ䛾ᆅ㟈ሗ䜢ฟ䛩⤌⧊䛿 㜵⅏䛾䛯䜑බᘧ䛾ᆅ㟈ሗ䜢ฟ䛩⤌⧊䛿 – ᆅ㟈ᑐ⟇䛾ᇶᮏ᪉㔪䚸ᆅ㟈䛾ண▱䞉ண 䛾 ホ౯ • VANண▱䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸ᨻᗓ䛿EPPO䛾䜒䛸䛻 ⛉Ꮫⓗᆅ㟈⅏ᐖ䞉䝸䝇䜽ホ౯ጤဨ䜢タ⨨䠄1992䠅 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ᐇ⏝ⓗண 䛜䛺䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䛛 – 䝻䝅䜰䛷䛿ᆅ㟈ண▱䞉ண ᡭἲ䛾㛤Ⓨ◊✲䛜䛥䛛䜣 䛷䛒䜛䚹䠅M8, RTL – ἲᚊ䛻๎䛳䛯䝹䞊䝖䛷䛂ண▱ሗ䛃䛜ᨻᗓ䛻ఏ䛘䜙䜜 䜛䚹 – 䛂Kamchatkaᆅᇦ䛾ᆅ㟈䛻ഛ䛘䜛䛃ィ⏬ 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ᐇ⏝ⓗண 䛜䛺䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䛛 – 㛫䛻౫Ꮡ䛧䛺䛔ᆅ㟈䝝䝄䞊䝗ண 䛸䚸䛭䜜䛻䜒䛸 䛵䛔䛯⪏㟈ᇶ‽ – ண▱䞉ண 䛻㛵䛩䜛බᘧ䛺䛧䛟䜏䛿䛺䛔 – ◊✲䝺䝧䝹䛾ண▱䛿EPPO䛻ᥦฟ䛥䜜䜛ጤဨ 䛷ホ౯䞉່࿌ 1. 2. • ほ 䞉ゎᯒ䛾ᙉ ᆅඖ䛾ᆅ㟈༴ᶵ⟶⌮యไ䛾ᙉ ㄽᩥ䛻ᥖ㍕䛥䜜䛯䛂ᆅ㟈ண▱䠙2007-2008 ᖺ䛻䕿䕿䛷M7䛾ᆅ㟈䛜㉳䛝䜛䛃䜢ホ౯䛧䛯 䛂䛣䛾ண▱䛿ᐇ⏝ᛶ䛻ஈ䛧䛔䜒䛾䛾䚸ほ 䛿ᙉ䛩䜉䛝䚹䛃䛸⤖ㄽ • 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᕷẸ䛻ఏ䛘䜙䜜䜛䛛 • 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺Ⓨᒎ䛜ᮇᚅ䛥䜜䜛䛛 • • Russian Expert Council for Earthquake prediction and Earthquake Hazard Assessment (REC) • 2008-2103ᖺ䛻Petropavlovsk-kamchatskiy 䛻M>7.5௨ୖ䛾ᆅ㟈䛜Ⓨ⏕䛩䜛☜⋡䛿50% • Modified M8 660km x 660km 䛾⠊ᅖ䛷 1993-1998䛻M>7.5䛾ᆅ㟈䛜㉳䛝䜛ྍ⬟ᛶ䛾 㧗䛔ሙᡤ䠄Zone of High Probability) … 䠘ண ሗᥦฟ䛾䠎䠌䞄᭶ᚋ䛻ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕䠚 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᕷẸ䛻ఏ䛘䜙䜜䜛䛛 – ᆅᇦ䛾ጤဨ䛜⛉Ꮫጤဨ䛸䛸䜒䛻ண▱ሗ䛾ホ ౯䛜⾜䜟䜜䜛 – REC䛻ሗᥦ౪䠄ᐇ䛿䚸ㄡ䛷䜒ᥦ౪䛷䛝䜛䠅 – ᐇ㝿䛻ᕷẸ䛻ఏ㐩䛥䜜䜛䛣䛸䛿ᕼ䛷䛒䜛 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺Ⓨᒎ䛜ᮇᚅ䛥䜜䜛䛛 – Russian Academy of Science䛻䜘䜚ᇶ♏ⓗ◊✲䛸 ほ 䛜᥎㐍䛥䜜䜛 12 ྛᅜ䛾≧ἣ ⡿ᅜ • • • • 㜵⅏䛾䛯䜑බᘧ䛾ᆅ㟈ሗ䜢ฟ䛩⤌⧊䛿 – USGS • ほ 䞉䝝䝄䞊䝗ホ౯䞉ᆅ㟈ண 䛾㈐௵ᶵ㛵 • Natinal Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)䛜1978ᖺ䛻タ❧ – 1990ᖺ௦䛛䜙άⓎ䚸2006ᖺ䛛䜙άື – CalEMA California Emergency Management Agency – CEPEC California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ᐇ⏝ⓗண 䛜䛺䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䛛 – National Seismic Hazard Map Project (NSHMP) 䞊 㐃㑥䝺䝧䝹 • ᘓ⠏ᇶ‽ἲ䞉ಖ㝤ᩱ⋡䞉㔜せᵓ㐀≀䞉ᆅ㟈⿕ᐖ◊✲䞉⪏㟈ᨵಟඃඛ㡰䞉ᅵᆅ⏝ィ⏬䛾つ‽䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔 䜛 • 㛫䛻౫Ꮡ䛧䛺䛔䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥 – UCERF2 䠄䜹䝸䝣䜷䝹䝙䜰䛾䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥 䞊 㛫౫Ꮡ+㛫㠀౫Ꮡ䛾䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥䠅 – 㐃㑥䝺䝧䝹䛷䛿䠈☜❧䛧䛯ᡭ㡰䛿䛺䛔 – 䜹䝸䝣䜷䝹䝙䜰ᕞ䛷䛿䚸CEPEC䛜ヨ⾜䚹 • 䠏᪥㛫䛾ᆅ㟈Ⓨ⏕☜⋡䜢䠐䛴䛾䝷䞁䜽D(0-0.1%), C(1-5%), B(5-25%), A(>25%) 䛷ホ౯䚹 • 2009ᖺ䠏᭶M4.8䛾䛒䛸䚸SAF䛾༡➃䛻䝺䝧䝹C䜢ฟ䛧䛯䚹 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛻ᕷẸ䛻ఏ䛘䜙䜜䜛䛛 – CEPEC – CalEMA䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸䛝䛱䜣䛸䛧䛯ᡭ㡰䛿Ỵ䜎䛳䛶䛔䛺䛔䚹 – STEP(Short-Term Earthquake Probability)䛿Web䛷බ㛤 䠄2005- ) • వ㟈䛻䜘䜛ᆅ㟈ື☜⋡ሗ䝃䞊䝡䝇 • ሙྜ䛻䜘䛳䛶䛿☜⋡ᚓ䛜䠍䠌䠍䠌䠌ಸ䛻䛺䜛䛣䛸䜒 䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺Ⓨᒎ䛜ᮇᚅ䛥䜜䜛䛛 – UCERF3 13 －8－