...

Page 1 京都大学 京都大学学術情報リポジトリ 紅

by user

on
Category: Documents
50

views

Report

Comments

Transcript

Page 1 京都大学 京都大学学術情報リポジトリ 紅
Title
Author(s)
Citation
Issue Date
URL
The Profitability of Eucalyptus Farm Forest in Northeast
Thailand
Ubukata, Fumikazu; Takeda, Shinya; Watanabe, Hiroyuki;
Jamroenprucksa, Monton
森林研究 = Forest research, Kyoto (1998), 70: 35-42
1998-12-28
http://hdl.handle.net/2433/192810
Right
Type
Textversion
Departmental Bulletin Paper
publisher
Kyoto University
35
森 林 研 究70:35-42,lgg8
一
論( ) 文
The Profitability
of Eucalyptus Farm Forest in Northeast Thailand
Fumikazu UBUKATA*,Shinya
TAKEDA*,Hiroyuki
and Monton JAMROENPRUCKSA
WATANABE
タ イ東 北部 にお け るユ ー カ リ農 家林 経営 の収 益 性
生 方 史 数*・
竹 田 晋 也*・
渡 辺 弘 之*・Monton
JAMRoENPRucKsA**
The Profitabilityof Eucalyptus Farm Forest in Northeast Thailand: Recently Eucalyptus farm forest has rapidly expanded in
Thailand, especially in eastern and northeastern regions. This research analyzed the recent change in profitabilitybetween
Eucalyptus plantingand cassava cultivation,
by focusing on changes in production prices,factor pricesand factorcosts.Two sources,
a1994 reference survey on the profitability
of Eucalyptus and cassava in the northeast region,and a fieldsurvey on farm forest
management conducted in 1996, were analyzed. First,itwas found that Eucalyptus farm forest provided labor savings for farmers.
Second, the decreasing trend in the cassava farm gate price from the mid 1980s to early 1990s improved the relativeprofitability
of
Eucalyptus planting.
Key words:Northeast Thailand, Eucalyptus, Farm Forest, Profitability
近 年 タ イ で は 農 家 に よ るユ ー カ リ林 業 経 営(農
家 林 経 営)が
東 部 や 東 北 部 を 中 心 に 急 速 に広 ま っ て い る 。 本 研 究 で は 、 東 北 部 に
お け る1994年 の ユ ー カ リ ・キ ャ ッサ バ の 費 用 ・収 益 に 関 す る文 献 資 料 と 、1996年
に行 っ た 農 家 林 経 営 に 関 す る 聞 き取 り調 査 を も と
に 、 要 素 費 用 と生 産 物 価 格 の 変 化 に着 目 して 、 近 年 の ユ ー カ リ農 家 林 経 営 とキ ャ ッ サ バ 耕 作 との 収 益 性 の 比 較 を行 っ た 。 ユ ー カ リ
農 家 林 経 営 は 農 家 に と っ て 労 働 節 約 的 な 経 営 で あ る こ と 、80年 代 後 半 か ら90年 代 前 半 に か け て の キ ャ ッサ バ 庭 先 価 格 の 相 対 的 下 落
が 、 ユ ー カ リの 収 益 性 を相 対 的 に 改 善 した こ とが 明 ら か と な っ た。
キ ー ワ ー ド:タ イ 東 北 部 、 ユ ー カ リ、 農 家 林 、 収 益 性
1
1ntroduction:Expansion
of Eucalyptus
farm
forest in Thailand
used for pulp, construction poles, furniture and wood
chips in Thailand. It has been in the spotlight since
the late 19$Os, in accordance with the price hike of
Recently the area under farm forest has rapidly
expanded
in Thailand, even
though
Thailand
has
pulp
product
markets.
The
experienced serious deforestation since 1960s. The
Eucalyptus
expansion
crops, which
in northeast region is one of the most
recent and
drastic examples. NAGATA
(1996)estimated
rai=0.16ha)of
farm
and
KONG
that approximately 550,000 rai(1
Eucalyptus private forest,of which
forest is considered
established between
1991
This figure;110,000
the largest part, was
and
1996
in northeast.
rai per year, is more than the
in both
domestic
government
has
and
international
also
promoted
planting to replace various agricultural
have
been
facing marketing problem
(such as cassava), for structural adjustment in the
agriculturalsector.
From
the farmer's point of view, it is quite
natural to say that a change in terms of profitability
may
affect a change
researches
analyzed
in agricultural crops. Some
profitability of
Eucalyptus
annual forest depletion in this region during 1991
plantation and that of cassava, the most competitive
and 1993.
crop with Eucalyptus.
Eucalyptus
(Eucalyptus camaldulensis)is mainly
串
Grad.
蔀*
Fac.
Sch.
of
Agric.,
Kyoto
of For., Kasetsart
Univ.
Univ.
Kyoto
Bangkok
串京 都 大 学 大 学 院 農 学 研 究 科
・#タ イ 王 国 カ セ サ ー ト大 学 林 学 部
606-8502
10903
Thailand
First, based on a field survey in eastern region,
36
FOR.
MAKARABHIROM(1994)suggested
that Eucalyptus was
profitability.
The
following
indices
RES.,KYOTO
701998
are calculated.
more profitable than cassava under the 12%discount
rate. However, whether a research in eastern region is
adaptable to the northeastern
region
remains
Net Profit(NP)and
Net Present Value(NPV)
in
Production costs here are defined as variable
question. In addition, detailed data (especially factor
costs,which are basically categorized into three parts;
costs)on
labor, material and others. This includes non-cash
cassava production were not presented in
the analysis.
Taking
costs
a theoretical approach, a Finnish group
pointed out that profitabilityof Eucalyptus was higher
than that of cassava under the 12% interest rate,
although the market
order(NISKANEN,
interest rate(18%)changed
in
(e.g. unpaid
family
labor,
materials
not
purchased). For cassava cultivation, revenue is
calculated by multiplying farm gate price(Baht/kg;1
Baht=US$0.4,
in 1996)by
(kg/rai).Then
the amount of production
based on production cost and benefit,
et.al.,1993). However, because of
Net Profit(NP)is
calculated by revenue minus costs.
lack of field survey, the research of Finnish group
Since Eucalyptus
is a perennial crop, Net Present
used estimated data in calculation,some part of which
Value
did not reflect field data. For
profit by
formula.
optimum
rotation period
(8
instance, it used
and
10
years
for
(NPV)is
pulpwood
and sawlog production in farm forest,
respectively),while the most farmers cut and sold the
northeast
region
eagerly planted
Eucalyptus,
NP;
since the old data(basically during 1980s)was
r
To date, few researchers analyzed the factors
affecting the change of the relative profitability
northeast
Thailand.
In
addition, factor cost
=NP
in year i,i=1,2,3,..., n
= Interestrate
Annual
between Eucalyptus planting and cassava cultivation
in
Net
Since
crop
Profit(ANP)
cassava
in
modified
into
further account of farmer's decision-making behavior,
with
NP
were
in
not
calculated
to
provide
in
the
previous
explanations
research.
for
recent
expansion of Eucalyptus farm forest management
in
the
each
is generally
Thailand,
efficiencyand recent trends in factor costs, that took
Therefore,
the following
Where,
especially during the early 1990s, was not analyzed
used.
time. It is calculated by
nNPiNPV=i=i(1+r)i
trees within 5 years. Besides, the reason why farmers
in
used to determine the discounted
annual
of
year
Eucalyptus
NPV
of
terms
so
cassava
as
is
as
Eucalyptus
that
cultivation.
constant,
planting
regarded
Annual
calculated
annual
should
it can
be
Regarding
Net
an
be
compared
Revenue
Profit(ANP)of
by
the
following
formula.
northeast region, this research aims to discuss the
factors affectingrecent change in profitabilitybetween
Eucalyptus
farm forest and cassava cultivation,by
focusing on changes in production prices,factor prices
and factor costs.
2 Methodology and Data Source
NP
V
ANP=n
Σ(1+が
i=1
Benefit cost ratio(B/C-R)
Benefit cost ratio(B/C-R)is used to analyze the
cost efficiency of the investment. It is calculated by
dividing the discounted cost into discounted revenue
2-1Methodology
First,based on referencesand interviews,
the
farmer'smanagement of Eucalyptusfarm forestis
described,and the productioncosts of Eucalyptus
(benefit).
For cassava cultivation,cost and revenue are
not discounted by time. In the same manner,"benefit
planting are compared with that of cassava
cultivation.
labor cost(LC)and
Second,financial
analysisispresentedto measure
per labor cost"(B/LC)and"benefit
(B/MAC)are
per material cost"
defined to see the efficiencyin terms of
material cost(MAC).
Internal Rate of Return(IRR)
37
森 林 研 究701gg8
Choosing a discount rate is one of the problems
of
cassava
in profitabilityanalysis of investment. Using the
Internalrate of return(IRR)can avoid it.This gives
the rate that NPV of the investmentis equal to zero.
However, itis not zero value of money but net profit
of cassava that profitfrom Eucalyptus plantingshould
be compared with. Thus "the discounting rate that
offersequivalentreturn with net profitof cassava"
EuCalyptus
(IRRe=c)is definedand calculated.
ANPe=Annual
Sensitivity
analysis
In analysis,Four discount rates are used;0%,
5%,10%,and
15%. The latterthree discount rates
representrecent saving rate,12 months depositrate,
and lending rate in recent Thailand, respectively
that
offers
planting
production
are
following
equivalent
(Pe=c),
constant
provided
across
net
profit
that
COSt
time(Calculated
by
to
and
the
formula).
ANP。+α
PQ.。 ニ
Where,
Net
Cc
=
Production
Xc
=Amount
Profit
cost
of
of
Eucalyptus
cassava(variable
cost
is
used)
of cassava
Results are compared
production
per
rai
with average farm
gate
price of cassava (real value). If this index is higher
(Asian Development Bank, 1996). Each result is
compared with thatof cassava cultivation.
As shown in Figure 1, farm gate priceof cassava
than the average farm gate price, Eucalyptus offers
(realvalue)has fluctuated,while mill gate price of
Eucalyptus (real value) has been rather constant.
Some forms of time seriesanalysisare necessary to
analyze its impact on Eucalyptus plantingbehavior.
However, lack of data source does not allow such
analysis.Thus we calculatedthe realfarm gate price
Changes in the factor prices
better profits in the longer term.
Change
in the factor prices such as wage
material prices also plays an
and
important role in
profitabilitychange. Recent changes in factor prices,
such as agricultural wage and seedling price for
Eucalyptus farm forest, are described and discussed
38
on
FOR.
the basis
region in the crop year 1993/1994,
of field interviews.
agricultural
2-2Data Source
economics
was
used
701998
from office of
(Office
of
Agricultural Economics,1994).
Data was collected from two sources, references
on
RES.,KYOTO
profitabilityof Eucalyptus
and cassava
northeast region, and a field survey in Kosum
district,Mahasarakham
in the
Pisai
province.
Field survey was conducted in the southern part
of Kosum Pisai district,Mahasarakham
province in
1996.This
districtis located in the southeast of Khon
Kaen city, which is one of the central cities in this
From reference, information on cost and revenue
of both Eucalyptus planting and cassava cultivation
region (Fig.2). Since there are accessible markets
was obtained. On Eucalyptus farm forest,SONGANOK'S
for a pulp mill, Eucalyptus farm forest has rapidly
survey in 1994
expanded in this area. Socio-economic conditions were
was used, since it is currently the
most reliable data that can be compared
cassava (SONGANOK,
with that of
1994). For cassava cultivation,
data concerning production
costs in the northeast
around this area;construction pole and raw materials
mainly surveyed in Ban Hua Na Kham
farmer's management
surveyed
village,while
on Eucalyptus farm forest was
complementarily
in
several
villages
39
森 林 研 究701gg8
including
Ban
Hua
Na
Kham
Ploughing
village.
rainy
3
Result
and
discussion
season.
ploughing
and cost of Eucalyptus farm forest
First, interviews give the following insight into
the management
of Eucalyptus farm forest.
is
by
is
seedlings
Operations
after
operated
certain
water
immediately
varied
per
among
rai)is
planting
Eucalyptus
13years.
Cost
Share(%)
FactorCosts
Labor
Cost
Plough血9
135.61
1257
21.93
(26.85)
10.13
(12.40)
24.52
(30.02)
248.87
(28.59)
Planting
129.32
11.99
(27.26)
114.99
Maintenance
beforeHarvest-
112.98
10.47
(23.82)
27830
.
Harvest
O.00
0.00
(Fe血a)
Maintenance
96.42
(26.84)
8.94
血harvest
3.18
(3.89)
81.69
(100.00)
5.04
(54.25)
36.08
(20.33)
Labor Cost inTotal
Ma重erial Cost
21.92
248.78
(0。00)
474.33
Sood(D血ig)
43.97
(100:00)
438.24
927.02
40.62
幽57.15
(83.55)
Fertilizer
Pesticide
51.60
and
4.78
(9.84)
4.52
0.00
(o.00)
0.00
(0.86)
AgriculAUal
Tools,etc.
Mate血
(40.21)
0.42
W6edK聾1◎r
3.73
42.36
30.18
皿Cost血Total
2.80 .
(5:75)
524.54
0.51
5.84
(5.54)
48.62・
9.28
(100.00)
o.aa
(2.45)
105.35
(100.00)
0出els
】M㎞
血劉鵠凋鷹m{℃of
α00
α00
A顔 ㎝1tu国
Took
2.51
'(0.00)
Interestetc.
79.91
Others血Total
7.41
(100.00)
99.97
8.81
7.41
102。48
(97.55)
9.03
79。91
(100.00)
(100.00)
Total Cost
1078.78
100.00
1134.85
11f/
Nσtes
1:Data
2:
in
The
1994.
Source:SoNGANOK,1994
production
SONGANOK'S
data
cost
on
Eucalyptus,
博t for
COS[on
幽
and
Eucalyptus
Eucalyptus
northeast爬gion(ωta1α
3:Fbr
of
is
Office
is
based
an
on
of Agricultural
average
field
for
survey
Bconomibs,1994.
the
northeast
40
households
of
region.
in
the
13years)・
ma血
加 鵬皿 ㏄befo】
鵠ha四est
i8血e
to電組
血the
lst and
2口d
years(93.21,19.77Baht,respectively).
Cost on mainteaenceafterharvestisthe totalin
出e5db、8山and
4:Cost
cost
l l血 】
灘(4398,38.36,14ρ8
share
share
means
in factor
cost
share血
costs(96).
ω 憾cost(%),
Bahち
騨
w】圃b
▼ely>
oostls㎞
血P漁
驚heses
means
the
rainfall,
buffaloes
follows
recommended
Cassava
1year
Cost
Share(%)
of
farmers,
generally
Table 1: The Production Cost of Eucalyptus and Cassava (Baht/rai,%)
Items
during
amount
using
Planting
Spacing
×2m(400
a
operated
tillers.
ploughing.
planting
After
is
power
3-1Management
and
or
after
while
recognized.
by
Royal
2
40
FOR.
Forest
Department
include
annual
weeding
and
fertilizing.
However, interviews showed that l l out of
20
farmers used fertilizeronly during planting.5
RES.,KYOTO
701998
gate price of cassava(real value). Average farm gate
price during 1985-1989, 1990-1994
is O.83,0.71
Baht/kg, respectively. Under the O%,5%
and 10%
farmers did not use fertilizerat all.For weeding,5
discount rate, Pe=c became
0ut of 10 farmers said that they did not weed
average farm gate price of cassava during
planting. They
perceived
that
weeding
was
after
not
1994,because
necessary on the Eucalyptus farm forest.
15%
The rotation period of 3-5 years is shorter than
the recommended 5 years. Then the stand is sold to a
narrowed
middleman
through negotiation.As price per stand is
higher than O.71, the
1990-
of fallin cassava price.Even under the
discount
rate, the
difference dramatically
to only O.02 Baht/kg. This indicates that
Eucalyptus gained its competitiveness against cassava
during this period because of the relative fall in
generally recognized, felling is operated by a
middleman.
Regeneration is based
on coppice
cassava farm gate price.
regeneration,4-5
3-3 Recent changes in the factor prices in Kosum
shoots per stump
are left,while
other shoots are cut.
Pisai District
These results highlight the labor-saving aspect of
This hypothesis
Factor prices, as well as production prices, are
important signals affecting farmer's decision-making
is checked in Table l by comparing Eucalyptus and
behavior. Considering the difference in factor costs
cassava in terms of production cost per rai. The
between Eucalyptus planting and cassava cultivation,
amount and the share of the cost are presented.
(see Table 1),recent trends of wage and material costs
are clearly important.
Eucalyptus farm forest management.
First, even though production cost of Eucalyptus
considers 13 years of operation (4 years for lst
rotation,3years
production
thereafter),it is lower than annual
cost
of
cassava.
Second,
cassava
According to the interviews in Kosum
Pisai
district,many people of the younger generation had
moved to work in the urban sector, especially during
cultivation requires higher labor costs, both in terms
the early 1990s.
of share and amount, than Eucalyptus planting, while
the order changes in terms of material cost. Provided
period. Agricultural wages
increased from
50
baht/day in 1993 to 100 baht /day in 1996. It is
that wage rate is 50-60 Baht per day, the amount of
likely that the combined
labor that cassava cultivation requires is 15.5-18.5
and the labor shortage, contributed to an increase in
man-days, while 7.9-9.5 man-days
Eucalyptus as itis regarded as a labor-saving crop.
Eucalyptus. Thus
we
are required for
can conclude that Eucalyptus
Wage
hikes also started in this
effects of the wage increase
planting has cost-saving and labor-saving aspects for
In contrast, seedling price was around
l
baht/seedling during 1990s. Assuming
that the
farmers.
farmers did not change
the tree spacing, seedling
costs, which are the highest portion of the material
3-2
Profitability of
Eucalyptus
farm
forest in
northeast region
Table
2
costs for Eucalyptus planting, remained stable. Or if
we consider the inflationrate(annual rate is around
shows
profitability of
Eucalyptus
4-5%during
1990
to 1995), seedling costs decreased
20%within
5 years. In addition, one of the
planting and cassava cultivation in the northeast
region in 1994. All results on ANP, B/C-R, and B/LC
around
indicate that Eucalyptus is higher and more profitable.
the study
IRR and IRRe;calsoindicate
betterprofitability
for
numbers of seedlings from the project free of charge.
Eucalyptus planting.However, for B/MAC,
Figure 3 shows that 29%of
is higher only under the O%
The
remarkable
B/MAC
and 5%
differences between
Eucalyptus
discount rate.
B/LC
and
indicate the labor-saving nature of Eucalyptus
Eucalyptus
with average farm
area. Some
farmers
near
could get certain
respondents had received
seedlings from the government
agencies.
Although this figure needs to be considered cautiously
due to the small sample size,itsuggests that relatively
large number
planting.
Results on Pe.c are compared
forest extension projects was initiated in 1992
of farmers may benefit from government
agencies in this area. Thus the constant(or decreasing
41
森 林 研 究701998
Table
2:
The
Profitability
Cassava
(r=0%)
Revenue
and Cassava($aht/rai,1994)
of Eucalyptus
Eucalyptus Eucalyptus Eucalyptus
(r=5%)
(r=10%)
(r= 15%)
Eucalyptus
(r =0%)
1218.66
9745.73
6478.65
4502.31
3251.20
1034.88
998.87
927.23
868.91
819.93
NP
183.78
8746.86
5551.42
3633.40
ANP
183.78
672.84
590.98
511.50
435.47
B/C-R
1.18
9.76
6.99
5.18
3.97
B2C
1.31
20.55
15.15
11.48
18.58
12.97
9.44
7.13
n.a.
0.80
0.76
0.72
0.69
璽RR(%)
n.a.
53.26
53.26
53.26
53.26
IRRex(%)
n.a.
34.30
34.30
34.30
34.30
Cost
1L57
B/MAC
Pe=c(Baht/kg)
2431.27
8.941
Notes
1:Calculation
is based
on"interest
rate.
rate
As
etc."is
cassava
is used
2:The
the
faml
n.a.=Not
gate
price
1994.The
revenues
ANP,
and
2 in Table
costs
within
are
also
2. In cost
calculation,
discounted
a year(around
of
are
7-12
and
in
RR
by
months),
cost
the
discount
no
discount
of
amoロnt
Agricultural
of
production
of
Thailand
Economics,1994),
per
rai
Crop
in
Year
respectively
are,2374.23,2331.4,2340.1,and
from
SONGANOK'S
used.
Eucalyptus
analysis.
of
the
2700
in
Baht/rai,
for
respectively(Sortcnxox,1994).
are
SONGANOK'S
in definitions
of
years,
different
and
Bah!ノkg(Agricultura】S重a重js重ics
Eucalyptus
13th
in SONGANOK'Sarticle
B/C。R,
in Thailand,
kg/rai(Office
and
results
differences
note
available
cassava
a即e,057
2138
4th,7th,10th
respectively
Revenues
harvested
of
region
and
described
l and
it.
noRheast
3:The
in Table
excluded.
rate,
l994195),
the
data
is usually
for
r=Discount
on
calculation,
analysis,
For
is
example,
3636.91,512.80
Although
they
are
Such
almost
under
although
the
the
Baht,5.20
differences
negligible.
data
10%interest
sources
rate,
and
may
reflect
NP,
53.42%,
slight
42
FOR.
in real value) trend of seedling costs, and
extension project might
the
References
Asian
Clearly, the changes in the factor prices and costs
the
early
1990's
were
Eucalyptus planting in Kosum
favorable
Bank
Developing
for
Pisai district.
Development
Asian
Asian
Conclusion
and
of
Bank,
Contract
on
labor productivity was
much
in some
area
where
increased and material price decreased. Second, it was
NAGATA,
and
Culture
Y.,
found that the decreasing trend in cassava prices from
Plantation
the mid
of
1980s
to early 1990s
had
relative profitability of Eucalyptus
compared
improved
the
planting when
Field interviews provided useful information that
imply a relationship between Eucalyptus planting and
alone does
addition, new
may
not account
crisis.More
Acta
Office
information for future studies.
of
Program.
Education,
Science
Expansion
Northeast
of
Thailand:An
Village
Tree
Application
Information
System
・ ド ラ イ ゾ ー ン の 地 域 形
LUUKKANEN,0.,
S.
of
Forestalia
of
「総 合 的 地
Cost
of
1-28
in
the
Trees.
Northeast
Agricultural
(1994)
1994(ln
Economics,
Cooperatives,
Production
of
and
of
Tropical
Economics
of Cassava
Agricultural
and
Agricultural
Evaluation
Fast-Growing
R.(1994)Feasibility
Planting
Journal
(1993)
O.
Fenica.241:1-38.
Agriculture
SONGANOK,
SAASTAMOINEN,
Agricultural
Office
baseline
Study
Research;
Tokyo,100-142.
Thailand
Profitability
recent
provide
the
Scientific
Y.(1996)
BHUMBHAMON,
Production
crisis, and
Socio-economic
Research
南 ア ジ ア
A.,
current analysis, provide insight into the effects of
economic
Southeast
域 研 究 」 総 括 班).187.219.
economic
detailed field surveys would extend the
in
In
と 発 展 一 地 域 発 展 の 固 有 論 理(3)一.219pp,文
NISKANEN,
trends of rural socio-economic change
of the 1997
Thailand.
of
for
Japan,
Patterns:
部 省 科 学 研 究 費 補 助 金 重 点 領 域 研 究
for this relationship. In
occur as a consequence
in
Northeast
成
rural socio-economic change. Nevertheless profitability
of
of
Report
Ministry
KONG,
(NETVIS).(東
to cassava.
course
Scientific
S.(eds.),
NAGATA,
the
in
Patterns
Grant-ln-Aid
International
the labor wage
Farming
Final
Conducted,
cassava. This might help to improve profitabilityof
Eucalyptus
in
Development.
higher than that of
Countries.435pp.
Utilization
Utilization
Asia:Changes
of
Manila.
Tree
Forest
Indicators
Pacific
P.(1994)Forest
Study
First, it was found that Eucalyptus farm forest
management had labor-saving aspects for farmers. Its
(1996)Key
Development
MAKARABHIROM,
Case
4
701998
also contribute to reduce
material costs of Eucalyptus planting in this area.
during
RES.,KYOTO
The
Thai).52pp.
Ministry
of
Bangkok.
of
Fast-Growing
under
System
Economics
Tree
Restructuring
Project(ln
Research
Thai).
17:
Fly UP