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Proprietary
Baron Hurricane Index
Atlantic Case Studies
NOAA SBIR Phase II
7/18/2013
1
Hurricane Sandy
October 25, 2012
Advisory 13
Hurricane Sandy had weakened from a 100 knot
hurricane to a 70 knot hurricane at the time
Advisory 13 was issued. Although Sandy
weakened, its size grew after it passed the
Bahamas. As Sandy traveled east of the Eastern
Seaboard, it eventually regained hurricane
strength winds 2 days after the advisory was
issued. Over the next few days Sandy interacted
with air masses, a stationary boundary to its
northwest, and a warm front to its northeast, all
providing various forms of convection to sustain
Sandy. When Sandy turned towards landfall, it
intensified due to baroclinic forcing, as opposed
to typical tropical causes. Sandy made landfall
in New Jersey with winds of 70 knots.
7/18/2013
2
SST
Baron Hurricane Index
15Z 10/25/2012
003-hr Forecast
15Z 10/25/2012 003-hr Forecast
Wind Shear
15Z 10/25/2012
003-hr Forecast
Advisory 13 INITIAL was issued as Sandy’s
position was southeast of The Bahamas. At
Sandy’s current position, Wind Shear is
moderately high, SST is high, and Ocean Heat
Content has little to no effect. Therefore, the
BHI algorithm indicates that Sandy is in an
environment that is mostly “Unfavorable”, with
“Favorable” spots for strengthening where the
Sea Surface Temps are warm enough.
(NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point
in time.)
ACTUAL: Sandy is presently a 90 knot Hurricane,
it had weakened since before this forecast: 12
hours ago Sandy had 100 knot winds.
NHC Forecast Track
Actual Track
OHC
15Z 10/25/2012
003-hr Forecast
Initial
Hurricane Sandy Advisory 13
October 25, 2012, 15 UTC
INIT 25/1500Z 22.4N 75.5W
12H 26/0000Z 24.4N 75.6W
24H 26/1200Z 26.2N 76.4W
36H 27/0000Z 27.4N 76.9W
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.3W
72H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.5W
96H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W
120H 30/1200Z 39.5N 73.5W
7/18/2013
90 KT 105 MPH
90 KT 105 MPH
80 KT 90 MPH
75 KT 85 MPH
70 KT 80 MPH
65 KT 75 MPH
65 KT 75 MPH
60 KT 70 MPH
3
SST
Baron Hurricane Index
15Z 10/25/2012
048-hr Forecast
15Z 10/25/2012 048-hr Forecast
Wind Shear
15Z 10/25/2012
048-hr Forecast
FORECAST: Advisory 13 48HR is a FORECAST for
Sandy’s position and strength at 12z on
10/27/12. Sandy spent the past 48 hours in
conditions that were mostly “Unfavorable” for
strengthening with areas of “Highly Unfavorable”
conditions. Sandy is moving into cooler SST,
where Ocean Heat Content is not a factor, and
Wind Shear is increasing. Sandy is entering a
“Highly Unfavorable” environment for
intensification.
(NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point
in time.)
ACTUAL: Overall, Sandy lost strength the past 48
hours from 90 knots to 70 knots.
48 Hr
OHC
15Z 10/25/2012
048-hr Forecast
Hurricane Sandy Advisory 13
October 25, 2012, 15 UTC
NHC Forecast Track
Actual Track
7/18/2013
INIT 25/1500Z 22.4N 75.5W
12H 26/0000Z 24.4N 75.6W
24H 26/1200Z 26.2N 76.4W
36H 27/0000Z 27.4N 76.9W
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.3W
72H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.5W
96H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W
120H 30/1200Z 39.5N 73.5W
90 KT 105 MPH
90 KT 105 MPH
80 KT 90 MPH
75 KT 85 MPH
70 KT 80 MPH
65 KT 75 MPH
65 KT 75 MPH
60 KT 70 MPH
4
SST
Baron Hurricane Index
15Z 10/25/2012
096-hr Forecast
15Z 10/25/2012 096-hr Forecast
Wind Shear
96 Hr
15Z 10/25/2012
096-hr Forecast
FORECAST: Advisory 13 96HR is a FORECAST for
Sandy’s position and strength at 12z on
10/29/12. Sandy is in High Shear, Cold Sea
Surface Temps, and low Ocean Heat Content.
According to BHI, Sandy is in a “Highly
Unfavorable” environment for intensification.
(NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point
in time.)
ACTUAL: Despite being in “Highly Unfavorable”
conditions, Sandy gained strength to 80 knots.
Sandy’s pressure had been steadily falling for the
past 3 days. Sandy during this time was losing
Tropical characteristics and gaining strength from
non-tropical baroclinic processes.
OHC
15Z 10/25/2012
096-hr Forecast
Hurricane Sandy Advisory 13
October 25, 2012, 15 UTC
NHC Forecast Track
Actual Track
7/18/2013
INIT 25/1500Z 22.4N 75.5W
12H 26/0000Z 24.4N 75.6W
24H 26/1200Z 26.2N 76.4W
36H 27/0000Z 27.4N 76.9W
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.3W
72H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.5W
96H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W
120H 30/1200Z 39.5N 73.5W
90 KT 105 MPH
90 KT 105 MPH
80 KT 90 MPH
75 KT 85 MPH
70 KT 80 MPH
65 KT 75 MPH
65 KT 75 MPH
60 KT 70 MPH
5