Comments
Description
Transcript
Hank Paulson, ON THE BRINK
Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol. 20, No. 2, March 2011 97 ᦠ ⹏ *CPM2CWNUQP106*'$4+0-+PUKFGVJG4CEGVQ5VQRVJG%QNNCRUGQHVJG )NQDCN(KPCPEKCN5[UVGO$WUKPGUU2NWU ࡋࡦࡐ࡞࠰ࡦ⾐ޔ ሶ⸶ ࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޡ࿁㘈㍳ޢᣣᧄ⚻ᷣᣂ⡞␠ ޔᐕ ੩ㇺቇᄢቇ ⚻ᷣቇㇱ ችᎹ ㊀⟵ ᧄᦠߪ╙ ઍᄢ⛔㗔࡚ࠫࠫޔ㨃ࡉ࠶ࠪࡘߩᮭᧃᦼ ޔᐕ ߦ╙ ઍ⽷ോ㐳ቭߦዞછߒޔ ࠕࡦࠣࡦࠬࡄࡦㅪ㌁⼏㐳ࠍߒߡ ޟᐕߦ৻ᐲߚߒࠊ⸒ߣޠ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߣᚢߞߚ↵ߩ‛⺆ߢ ࠆޕ ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߘߩ߽ߩߪߢ߹ࠇߎޔ⇇ߩᄙߊߩ࿖ߢ➅ࠅߒ߈ߡࠆߩߘޕઍ⊛ߥ߽ߩߪޔ ᐕߩ㧺㨅ߩᩣଔ⪭ߦᆎ߹ࠆ⇇ᄢᕟᘓ ޔᐕઍߩࠕࡔࠞߩ㧿㧒㧸㊄Ⲣෂᯏ ޔᐕ೨ᓟߩർ᰷ ߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏ ޔᐕߩࠕࠫࠕ㊄Ⲣෂᯏ߇ࠊޔ࿖ߩ ᐕ߆ࠄߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߥߤߢࠆߦࠄࠇߘޕ㑐ߔࠆ ⎇ⓥߪᢙᄙߊߥߐࠇߡ߅ࠅޔ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߦኻߔࠆ⎇ⓥ⠪㑆ߢࠄࠇࠆ߅߅ࠃߘߩวᗧߪޔᰴߩࠃ߁ߦ߹ߣ ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆߢࠈ߁ޕ ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߩ೨ߦߪࡃࡉ࡞߇ࠅߪ࡞ࡉࡃޔ㊄Ⲣ✭ߣ㊄Ⲣⷙ✭ߦࠃߞߡ߽ߚࠄߐࠇࠆ߇࡞ࡉࡃޕ ⊒↢ߔࠇ߫ޔᔅߕߘߩᓟߦࡃࡉ࡞፣უ߇↢ߓ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߦਇ⦟ௌᮭ߇⊒↢ߔࠆޕਇ⦟ௌᮭߩ⊒↢ߪ㊄Ⲣࠪ ࠬ࠹ࡓߩᷙੂࠍ↢ߺ⚻ޔᷣᵴേߦ⪺ߒᖡᓇ㗀ࠍ߷ߔޕ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߪ߹ߕޔᵹേᕈෂᯏ㧔㊄ߩਇ⿷㧕 ߣ߁ᒻߢ⊒↢ߒޔᵹേᕈෂᯏߪ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩ⚻༡ᖡൻࠍ߽ߚࠄߔᡰᛄ⢻ജෂᯏ㧔⾗ᧄߩਇ⿷㧕ߦ⊒ዷߔ ࠆߕ߹ޔߢߎߘޕᵹേᕈෂᯏߦኻߒߡਛᄩ㌁ⴕߪᕁಾߞߚ㊄Ⲣ✭╷ߦࠃߞߡᵹേᕈߩଏ⛎ࠍታⴕ ߔࠆߎߣઁޔᣇᡰᛄ⢻ജෂᯏߦኻߒߡߪޔᐭ㧔⽷ോ⋭㧕߇⊛⾗㊄ߦࠃࠅⓍᭂ⊛ߦ㗴㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߦⓍ ᭂ⊛ߦ⾗ᧄᵈߔߴ߈ޕࠆߢߩ߽߁ߣޔ ᄢᕟᘓ߇ߩࠃ߁ߦᷓೞߥਇᴫߦ߹ߢ⪭ߜㄟࠎߢߞߚߩߪޔ ᐕߩᣂᄢ⛔㗔ዞછ߹ߢߎߩ㧞ߟߩ ╷߇ਔᣇߣ߽ታᣉߐࠇߥ߆ߞߚߚߢࠅ߇ࠊߚ߹ޔ࿖ߩ⚻ᷣ߇ ᐕએ㒠㐳ᦼߦࠊߚߞߡṛߒ ⛯ߌߚߩߪޔ㊄Ⲣ✭߇ਇචಽߢࠅ⾗⊛ߟ߆ޔ㊄ߩዉ߇࿖᳃ߩᒝኻߦળ ޔᐕߩෂᯏߩ⊒ ↢߹ߢߥߐࠇߥ߆ߞߚߎߣߢࠆߦࠇߎޕኻߒߡ ޔᐕߩർ᰷ߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߢߪޔ㊄Ⲣ✭ߣ⊛⾗ᧄߩ ዉ߇ㅦ߿߆ߦ߶߷หᤨߦታᣉߐࠇߚߩߢ᥊᳇࿁ᓳߪㅦ߆ߞߚ⚻ߩࠄࠇߎޕ㛎ߪߕࠇ߽ޔਛᄩ㌁ⴕߩ ᄢⷙᮨߥ㊄Ⲣ✭ߦࠃࠆޔᵹേᕈߩଏ⛎ߣਗࠎߢޔᐭߦࠃࠆ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩᢇᷣ߇߆ߦ㊀ⷐߢࠆ߆ࠍ ᢎ߃ߡߊࠇࠆޕ ߐߡޔ࿁ߩࠕࡔࠞߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߢߪ ޔᐕ㗃ࠃࠅࠨࡉࡊࠗࡓࡠࡦ㗴߇ᷓೞൻߔࠆਛޔㅪ㇌ 1 ߎߩᦠ⹏ߦ␜ߐࠇࠆࡍࠫߪᦨೋ߇⸶ᦠߢᓟ߇ේ⪺ߩ߽ߩߢࠆޕᒁ↪ᢥߪ߶߷⸶ᦠߦࠃࠆޕ ࡃࡉ࡞߅ࠃ߮ࡃࠬ࠻߇➅ࠅߒ߈ࠆߎߣࠍᱧผ⊛ߦࠄ߆ߦߒߚ㊀ⷐߥᢥ₂ߣߒߡޔ-KPFNGDGTIGT%JTCNGU2㧔㧕 ޔ ߹ߚᦨㄭߩਥⷐ࿖ߩࡃࡉ࡞ࠍ⺑ߒߚᢥ₂ߣߒߡޔ5JKIGOK㧔㧕߇ࠆ ޔߚ߹ޕᐕ೨ᓟߩർ᰷ߩࡃࡉ࡞ߣࡃࠬ࠻ࠍಽ ᨆߒߚᢥ₂ߣߒߡ)ޔWNDTCPUGP ޔ,QPWPI-KCPFGTCPF8CTVKC ޔችᎹ㧔㧕 ޔᄢᕟᘓߦ㑐ߔࠆ߽ߩߣߒߡޔ 2CTMGT㧔㧕 ޔችᎹ㧔㧕╬߇ࠆޕ 98 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol. 20, No. 2, March 2011 Ḱߣᐭߪߤߩࠃ߁ߦኻಣߒߚ߆ߢࠆޔߦߊߣޕ㗴ߪᛩ⾗㌁ⴕߦ㓸ਛߒߚޕᛩ⾗㌁ⴕߪၮᧄ⊛ߦ ⸽ળ␠ߢࠆ߇⽶ޔௌߦࠃࠅ⾗㊄⺞㆐ࠍߒ⽶ߩߘޔௌߦࠃߞߡࠬࠢߩ㜞ᛩ⾗ߦߩࠅㄟߺޔ㜞 ⋉ࠍߍߡ߈ߚ⥄ޕᏆ⾗ᧄߦኻߒߡߩߘޔᢙචߩᛩ⾗ࠍ߅ߎߥߞߡߚ⽶ޕௌߣ⥄Ꮖ⾗ᧄߩᲧ₸ߪ ࡃ࠶ࠫߣ߫ࠇޔ㜞ࡃ࠶ࠫߪ⋉ࠍߍߡࠆߣ߈ߪ㜞⋉ࠍ߽ߚࠄߔ߇ޔኻߦ៊ᄬ߇ ↢ߓߚߣ߈ߪ៊ߩߘޔᄬߪᄙ㗵ߦߥࠆޕฦᛩ⾗㌁ⴕ߇ޔ㕖Ᏹߦ㜞ࡃ࠶ࠫࠍ↪ߡߚߦ߽߆߆ࠊ ࠄߕߩߘޔᛩ⾗ᵴേ߇ⷙߩኻ⽎ߦߪߥߞߡߥ߆ߞߚߎߣ߇ᄢ߈ߥ㗴ߢߞߚޕ ᐕ ߦ⸽ൻᛩ⾗ߦߘߩ․ᓽࠍ߽ߜޔᄙ㗵ߩࠨࡉࡊࠗࡓࡠࡦ㑐ଥߩ⸽ࠍߒߡߚޔ ᛩ⾗㌁ⴕ╙ ߩࡌࠕࠬ࠲ࡦ࠭ $GCT5VGCTPUߦᦨೋߩෂᯏ߇⊒↢ߔࠆࠄ߆ߎߎߪ⺆‛ޕᆎ߹ࠆޕ ࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߪ⽷ോ㐳ቭߣߒߡߘߩᢇᷣߦᅁߔࠆޕᐭᢇᷣߣ߁ᚻᲑࠍ↪ߕߦߥࠎߣ߆ߘߩᢇᷣߒ ࠃ߁ߣߔࠆߩߎޕᲑ㓏ߢߪᐭ߇⊛⾗㊄ࠍ↪ߡߩᛩ⾗㌁ⴕࠍᢇᷣߔࠆߣ߁ᐲߪሽߖߕޔ ߹ߚᐭߦࠃࠆᢇᷣߩน⢻ᕈߔࠄ⠨ᘦߐࠇߡߥ߆ߞߚ(ޕ4$ ߿ (&+% ߽ᢇᷣߩኻ⽎ߪ㗍㊄㌁ⴕߢࠅޔ ᛩ⾗㌁ⴕߪߘߩኻ⽎ᄖߢࠆ߇ࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޔࠄ߇ߥߒ߆ߒޕㅀߴࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ ߇࠭ࡦ࠲ࠬࠕࡌޟ⎕↥ ߔࠇ߫ޔห␠ߩᩣᑼ߿␠ௌߩ⠪߇∩ᚻࠍ߁ߌࠆߛߌߢߪߔ߹ߥߛࠈ߁⾗Ⲣߩ߳ࠕࡌޕ⠪ࠕࡌޔ ߣᩣᑼޔௌޔࠫࠥࡕޔฦ⒳⸽ߥߤࠍขᒁߔࠆ⋧ᚻߪᢙ⊖ޔᢙජߦߩ߷ߞߡߚߩࠄࠇߘޕ㌁ ⴕ⸽ޔળ␠ޔ㒾ળ␠ޔᛩ⾗ା⸤ޔ࠼ࡦࠔࡈࠫ࠶ࡋޔฦᎺㇺᏒᄢડᬺߩᐕ㊄ၮ㊄ߪߺߥ߆ߕߺޔ ࠄ߽ήᢙߩขᒁ⋧ᚻࠍᛴ߃ߡߚ߇ࠕࡌޕୟ↥ߔࠇ߫ߪࠇߘޔขᒁ⋧ᚻ߇Ⲣ⾗߿ᜂߩ࿁ߦ㔐፣ࠍ ᛂߟޠ 㧔㧕ߎߣߦߥࠆߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޕ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩ⎕✋߇߆ߦ↟ᄢߥⵍኂࠍ߽ߚࠄߔ߆ޔᾫ⍮ ߒߡߚޔࠄ߆ߛޕᢇᷣ߇ᔅⷐߥߩߢࠆޔࠄ߇ߥߒ߆ߒޕᢇᷣߪ߆ߦ࿎㔍ߢޔ╷ᜂᒰ⠪ߚߜߩ⧰ ഭ߇߆ߦᄢᄌ߆ߣߒ߭ߒ߭ޔવࠊߞߡߊࠆޕ╷ߩᦨ㜞⽿છ⠪ߣߒߡߩࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߪޔ㧺㨅ㅪ㌁✚ⵙ ߩ࠹ࠖࡕࠪࠟࠗ࠻࠽㧔6KOQVJ[)GKVJPGT㧕 ࠭ࡦ࠲ࠬࠕࡌޔ%'1 ߩࠕࡦࠪࡘࡢ࡞࠷ #NCP 5EJYCTV\ޔ㧶㧼ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦߩ %'1 ࡦࡕࠗ࠳࠭ࡓࠚࠫޔ,COGU&KOQP࠷ࠗ࠼ޔ㌁ⴕߩ %'1㧘࡛ࡈ ࠕ࠶ࠞࡑࡦ ,QUGH#EMGTOCPPߩ㑆ߢ✕ᒛߒߚᷤ߇ᤨ㑆ߣߩ┹ߩਛߢ➅ࠅߐࠇࠆߞ߽ߢᦠᧄޕ ߣ߽⺒ߺᔕ߃ߩࠆᚲߢࠆޕዋߒߒߊߡߊߎߣߦߒࠃ߁ޕ ਇേ↥ଔᩰ߇ᣣߏߣߦૐਅߒ⸽ࠫࠥࡕޔ߇ਅ⪭ࠍ⛯ߌࡓࠗࡊࡉࠨޔ㗴߇ᷓೞߦߥࠆਛޔ ᐕ ߦߪޔ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩਛߢ߽․ߦࡌࠕࠬ࠲ࡦ࠭ߩ⚻༡ᖡൻ߇ࠄ߆ߦߥࠅᆎࠆޕ ޟᣣᦐ ᣣ߆ࠄ ᣣᦐᣣ߹ߢߦࡌࠕߩᩣଔߪ ࠼࡞߆ࠄ ࠼࡞߳ߣਅ⪭ߒ␠ߩ࡞࠼ਁ ޔௌߩ ⸽ᢱߪ ਁ ࠼࡞߆ࠄ ਁ ࠼࡞߳ߣ ㄭߊߦ〡ߨ߇ߞߡߚޠ 㧔㧕 ޕ ᣣߪࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߦߣߞߡᢿࠍㄼࠄࠇࠆᄢߥᣣߢߞߚ⾗ߪࠄ߆ࠕࡌޕ㊄ᵹ߇⛯߈ޔሽ ⛯ਇน⢻ߢࠆߣߩㅪ⛊߇ࠆࡘࠪ࠶ࡉޕᄢ⛔㗔߆ࠄߪߤ߁ߔࠆߩ߆ߣޔਇ᳇ߥ㔚߇ࠆޕඦᓟ ࿁ߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߩዷ㐿ࠬࠗ࡞࠻ࡦߪࡦࠗࡓࠗ࠲ޔㅪ㌁ߩਅ⸥ YGD ߦߒޕ JVVRVKOGNKPGUVNQWKUHGFQTIKPFGZEHO!RJQOG 㗍㊄ࠍฃߌࠆᬺ㌁ⴕߪ (4$ ߣ (&+% ߩⷙኻ⽎ߦߥࠆߩߢ⥄ޔᏆ⾗ᧄᲧ₸ࠍߪߓ෩ߒⷙࠍฃߌࠆޔߒ߆ߒޕᛩ⾗㌁ ⴕߪ㗍㊄ࠍฃߌߥߩߢߘߩኻ⽎ߦߪߥࠄߥޕᛩ⾗㌁ⴕߪ 5'%㧔755GEWTKVKGUCPF'ZEJCPIG%QOOKUUKQP⸽ޔขᒁᆔ ຬળ㧕ߩ⋙〈ਅߦࠆޕ ࠕࡔࠞߩᒰᤨߩ㧡ᄢᛩ⾗㌁ⴕߪᄢ߈㗅ߦࡑޔ࠴ࡦ࡞ࡔޔࡦ࠲ࠬࡦࠟ࡞ࡕޔࠬࠢ࠶ࠨࡦࡑ࠼࡞ࠧޔ ࡉࠩ࠭ޕߚߞߢޔ 6 ࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߪᓟߦࠍ࠭ࡦ࠲ࠬࠕࡌޔᢇᷣߒߥ߇ࠄࠍ࠭ࠩࡉࡦࡑߗߥޔ⎕↥ߐߖߚߩ߆ߣޔ෩ߒᛕ್ࠍᶎ߮ ࠆߎߣߦߥࠆ⼏ߪࠕ࠷࡞ࡔޔ߫߃ߣߚޕળߢࡑࡦߩ⎕↥ࠍ╷ߩᄬᢌߣᢿߓߡࠆޕMeltzer (2009)ࠍෳᾖޕ 3 Hank Paulson, ON THE BRINK: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System, Business Plus, 2010. 99 ᤨߦޔㅪ㌁⼏㐳ࡌࡦࡃ࠽ࡦࠠ $GP$GTPCPMGޔ5'% 5GEWTKV[CPF'ZEJCPIG%QOOKUUKQP⸽ขᒁ ᆔຬળᆔຬ㐳ࠢࠬ࠻ࡈࠔࠦ࠶ࠢࠬ㧔%JTKUVQRJGT%QZ㧕 ޔ㧺㨅ㅪ㌁✚ⵙ࠹ࠖࡕࠪࠟࠗ࠻࠽ ߣ㔚ળ⼏ࠍ߅ߎߥ߁ޔߢߎߘޕㅪ㌁߇ᕁಾߞߡᵹേᕈࠍᏒ႐ߦଏ⛎ߔࠆޕエ⌕㒽ߦ߃ߡṖ〝ߦ ᶖἫߩᵃࠍᢔᏓߔࠆ߇ߣߎ߁ߣޔ߹ࠆޕ ߩߘޟᄛએ㒠ޔㅪ㌁߅ࠃ߮⽷ോ⋭࠴ࡓߪ㊄Ⲣࠪࠬ࠹ࡓ ࠍᢇ߁ߚߦޔ⢗߇∩ࠃ߁ߥᤨ㑆ߣߩ㑵ߩߥ߆ߢᔀᄛࠍ㊀ߨࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޠ 㧔㧕 ࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޕ ߪ⧰ߒޕ ߩ⚻ޕߚߞ߆ߥࠇ⌁ߪߒߚࠊޟ㜞߱ࠅ߇㎾߹ࠄߕߦࠅ߈ߒޔኢࠅࠍᛂߟ߇ࠕࡌޕ⎕↥ ߒߚࠄߤߩࠃ߁ߥᏫ⚿ࠍ߽ߚࠄߔߩ߆ޔᐲߣߥߊ⠨߃ߕߦࠄࠇߥ߆ߞߚޕ ߩ࠭ࡦ࠲ࠬࠕࡌޠୟ ↥ߪ ␠ߛߌߩୟ↥ߢߪࠅ߃ߥߣࠕࡌޕขᒁ㑐ଥߦࠆᄙᢙߩ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩࠄࠇߘߪߦࠄߐޔขᒁ వߩડᬺޔᐕ㊄ၮ㊄߇৻ᢧߦ⾗㊄࿁ߒߚࠄߤ߁ߥࠆ߆ޕ⠉ ᣣߦߪޔᣧᦺ ᤨ߆ࠄ㔚ળ⼏߇ᆎ߹ ࠆߕ߹ޔߪ⺰⚿ߩߢߎߘޕㅪ㌁߇㧶㧼ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦߦⲢ⾗ࠍ߅ߎߥࠍࠇߘޔరᚻߦߒߡࡕ࡞ࠟࡦ߇ࡌࠕ ߦⲢ⾗ߔࠆߣ߁᩺ߢߞߚޕ ߘߩⲢ⾗ߪᜂࠍ߃ߚᷣ⟵ോࠍ⽶ࠊߥࡁࡦࠦࠬဳⲢ⾗ߦߔࠆ ߣ߹ߞߚ㧔㧕 ޕ ߒ߆ߒߥ߇ࠄߩߘޔታߪߒߡኈᤃߢߪߥ߆ߞߚࠃ߁ߛޔࠄߥߗߥޕㅪ㌁ߩⲢ⾗ߪᜂ⾗↥߇චಽ ߢࠆ႐วߩߺߢࠆ⽷ߪࠠࡦ࠽ࡃޔߡߞ߇ߚߒޕോ⋭ߦௌോ⸽ߩᔨߒࠍߒߡߊࠆߘޔߒ߆ߒޕ ߩࠃ߁ߥߎߣ߇ᴺᓞ⊛ߦน⢻߆ุ߆⼏ޔળߩᛚߥߒߦᄢਂᄦ߆್ޔᢿ߇ઃ߆ߥ߹߹ߦࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޔ ߪߣޠߛࠅ߽ߟࠆߔ߽ߢߣߎߥࠎߤޟ࿁╵ߔࠆ㧔㧕 ✕ޕㄼߒߚਔ⠪ߩ߿ࠅขࠅ߇⛯ߊޕㅪ㇌Ḱ ℂળ߇ᱜᑼߦⲢ⾗ߩᛚߦ〯ߺಾࠇߥߢࠆ㑆ߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޔ㧺㨅ㅪ㌁ߩࠟࠗ࠻࠽ߣ➅ࠅߒᖱ ႎ឵ࠍߔࠆޕᓐߪࠟࠗ࠻࠽߇㊄ⲢᏒ႐ߢߩߎࠇ߹ߢߩ⚻㛎ޔታ❣ࠍା㗬ߒߡߊࠇߡࠆߎߣࠍ༑ࠎ ߛ ޕᣣඦ೨ ᤨߦ㧶㧼ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦ߇ㅪ㌁ߣදജߒߡ߇ߥߒ߆ߒޕࠆࠇߐ⊒ࠍߣߎࠆߔ⾗Ⲣߦࠕࡌޔ ࠄޔᏒ႐ߩᔕߪᖡߊߩࠕࡌޔᩣଔߪඨ୯ㄭߊߩ ࠼࡞ࠍഀㄟߎߣߦߥߞߚޕᏒ႐ߪߎߩࠃ߁ߥ េഥ╷ߦ߽㑐ࠊࠄߕࡌࠕߩሽ⛯ߪࠅᓧߥߣ್ᢿߒߚޕ ࡌࠕ߆ࠄߩ⾗㊄ᵹߪ⛯ߊᤨޕ㑆ߣߩ┹ߢࠆ ࡦࠟ࡞ࡕߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޕ%'1 ߩ࠳ࠗࡕࡦߦㅳᧃਛ ߦࡌࠕ⾈ߩขࠅ߹ߣࠍߔࠆߎߣࠍᙣ㗿ߔࠆࡘࠪ࠶ࡉޕᄢ⛔㗔߆ࠄ߽ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦ⾈ߩଦ߇ߊࠆޕ ߔߴߡߩੱ߇⧦┙ߜὶߞߡࠆߦࠇߎޕኻߒߡ⥄ࠕࡌޔߪ߹ߛߩߎޔᯏߦࠎߢ߽ߥ߅ޔߥ⾈ వࠍᝡߔ᰼ࠍߖߡߚߦ߆߇ࠕࡌߢੱ ߣ࠽࠻ࠗࠟޕෂ㒾ߥ⁁ᴫߦࠆ߆⺑ࠍޔᓧߔࠆޕ ᣣඦ೨ ᤨߦޔ,2 ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦߣ (4$ ߇ㅪ៤ߒߡࡌࠕߦⲢ⾗ࠍታⴕߔࠆߣ⊒ߔࠆ߇ࠕࡌޔ ᩣߪਅߍᱛ߹ࠄߕޔᤤߏࠈߦߪඨ୯ㄭߊߩ ࠍഀࠅㄟࠎߛޕ㘈ቴ㔌ࠇ߇⛯߈ߩࠕࡌޔᚻᜬߜ㊄߇ ᕆㅦߦᷫዋߒߡߞߚޕ,2 ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦ߽⾈ߦᘕ㊀ߥᆫࠍߖઁޔᣇࡌࠕߩࠪࡘࡢ࡞࠷ %'1 ߽ᘒߩ ᷓೞߐࠍචಽ㘶ߺㄟࠎߢߥߎߣߦࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߪ⧦┙ߟޕ ࠷࡞ࡢࡘࠪޟ%'1 ߪߎߩᦼߦ߅ࠃࠎߢ߽ߥ ߅⾈ޔ⠪ࠍᝡߔߚߩ₈੍߇ ࡩ߽ࠆ߆ߩࠃ߁ߥᐛᗐࠍᛴߡࠆ࠷ࠗ࠼ޕ ޠ㌁ⴕ 㧔&GWVUEJG$CPM㧕߇ࡌࠕߩ⾈ߦ⥝ࠍ߽ߞߡࠆߣ߁ᖱႎ߇ࠅ࠷ࠗ࠼ޔ㌁ⴕߩ %'1 ࡛ࡈ ࠕ࠶ࠞࡑࡦ ,QUGH#EMGTOCPPߦ㔚ࠍ߆ߌࠆ߇ޔ ⛘ߪߌߛࠇߘޔߡߞ߆ߥࠊ⾈ࠍࠕࡌޟኻߦߒߥ ߦࠈࠈ߶߽ࠎߌߣޠᢿࠄࠇߡߒ߹߁㧔㧕 ޕ 7 ࡁࡦࠦࠬဳߣ߁ߩߪޔᷣ߇ਇ⢻ߦߥߞߚ႐วޔ୫ᚻߪᜂਇേ↥ߩߺࠍ᫈ߔࠇ߫ࠃߊߦ↥⾗ߩઁޔ㆚ߒߡ ᷣࠍ᳞ࠄࠇࠆߎߣ߇ߥ⾉ޕᚻߦߣߞߡߪ߈ࠊߡࠬࠢߩ㜞Ⲣ⾗ߣߥࠆߩߘޕኻ߇ࠦࠬဳߢࠆޔߡߞ߇ߚߒޕ ߎߩⲢ⾗ߪᦨ⚳⊛ߦߪ (4$ ߇ 㧑ࠬࠢࠍ⽶߁ߣ߁߽ߩߢࠆޕ 100 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol. 20, No. 2, March 2011 ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦ߇ᦨᓟ߹ߢߦࠫࠥࡕࠆߔߩࠕࡌޔ㔍⦡ࠍ␜ߒߚߚߦޔ0; ㅪ㌁߇ࡌࠕߩࡕࠥ ࠫ⾗↥ࠍᜂߦ ం࠼࡞Ⲣ⾗ߔࠆߣ߁ᦨ⚳᩺ࠍឭ␜ߒߚޔߪߦࠇߎޔߒ߆ߒޕ⽷⿒ሼᴺ #PVK&GHKEKGPE[#EVߦࠃࠅ⼏ޔળ߆ࠄᛚࠍᓧࠄࠇߚએᄖߩᡰߪߢ߈ߥߣޔᮮ߿ࠅ߇ߞߚޕ ߘߎߢޔᓐߪߪߡߟߦ↥⾗ࠫࠥࡕߩࠕࡌޔචಽߥ⺞ᩏ߇ߥߐࠇߪ⾗Ⲣޔㆡಾߥᜂߦࠃߞߡⵣ ઃߌߐࠇߡࠆߣߒ⽷ޔോ⋭ߪᑼߦ (4$ ߩఘࠍਈ߃ࠆߎߣߪߢ߈ߥ߇(ޔ4$ ߩភ⟎ࠍ⒓߃ᡰᜬߔ ࠆߣ߁ᣇଢࠍ↪ࠆޕᓐߪߎߩ⧰⡺ߩ╷ࠍߩ⾗Ⲣޟోት⸒ޠ 㧔#NNOQPG[KUITGGP̉NGVVGT㧕ߣ ࠎߛ㧔㧕 (ޕ4$ ߪ૬ߖߡࠖ࠺ࡑࠗࡊޔะߌߩⲢ⾗ᐲ㧔2TKOCT[&GCNGT%TGFKV (CEKNKV[2&%(㧕ߩታᣉࠍߚߢࠇߎޕᛩ⾗㌁ⴕ߽ㅪ㌁߆ࠄቯᱠวߢ⾉ࠍฃߌࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߦߥ ߞߚ ޕᣣߩᄛߦߪࡕ࡞ࠟࡦߣࡌࠕߩว૬วᗧߩㅦႎ߇ᵹࠇߚߩߘޕᓟ߽ࡌࠕߩᩣଔࠍߋߞ ߡᷙੂࠍ⛯ߌߥ߇ࠄ ߦ⊛⚳ᦨޔᣣߦࡌࠕߪ ,2 ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦߦ⾈ߐࠇࠆޕ ߎߩᢇᷣߦߪ෩ߒᗧ߇⛯ߒߚߣࠅ߬ߞ߈ޔߪߦࠇߎޔߒ߆ߒޕ⺰ߒߡࠆޕ ޟᐔߥᣇࠍ ߔࠆߥࠄ߽ߦߒߚࠊޔᛕ್⠪ߚߜߩᗧߪℂ⸃ߢ߈ࠆޕේೣߣߒߡߪ┆ࠄ߆ߕߺޔߦߪ߹ࠅㄟࠎߛᛩ ⾗㌁ⴕࠍᢇᷣߔࠆߚߦ⊛⾗㊄ࠍࠬࠢߦߐࠄߔߎߣߪ߽ߒߚࠊޔᓐࠄߣหߓߊࠄุቯ⊛ߢࠆޕ ߛ߇ޔߞߡ߅ߌ߫㊄Ⲣࠪࠬ࠹ࡓోߦㆊᄢߥෂ㒾߇߅ࠃ߱ߣᏒ႐⚻㛎ࠍ߽ߣߦ್ᢿߒߚࠊߌߢࠆߒޔ ᒰὼߥ߇ࠄ߽ߘߩ⠨߃ߦᄌࠊࠅߪߥޠ 㧔㧕 ߎ߁ߒߚਛߢ⚻ߩ࠭ࠩࡉࡦࡑޔ༡ᖡൻ߇㕙ൻߒߡߚߩࡦࡑߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޕળ㐳 %'1 ߩ࠴ࡖ㧙࠼ࡈࠔ࡞࠼㧔4KEJCTF(WNF㧕ߣߩߒวߩਛߢ⾈ޔవߣߒߡ ࡔࠞࡦࡃޔ$CPMQH #OGTKECࠍឭ␜ߔࠆߪࡔࠞࡦࡃޕᛩ⾗㌁ⴕᬺߩᄢࠍᦸࠎߢࠆߣ⠨߃ߚ߆ࠄߛߥ߁ࠃߩߎޕᘒߦ วࠊߖࠆࠃ߁ߦ( ࠗࡔ࠾ࠔࡈޔCPPKG/CGߣࡈ࠺ࠖࡑ࠶ࠢ (TGFFKG/CEߩ⚻༡ᖡൻ߇㕙ൻߒޔ ᣣߦߪਔⴕߩᩣଔߪ 㧑߽ਅ⪭ߒߚ ޕᣣߦߪࠗࡦ࠺ࠖࡑ࠶ࠢࡃࡦࠦࡊ +PF[/CE (GFGTCN$CPM߇ (&+% ߩ▤ℂਅߦߞߚࠞࡔࠕޕผ ⇟⋡ߩᄢ߈ߥ㌁ⴕ⎕✋ߢߞߚࡘࠪ࠶ࡉޕᄢ ⛔㗔߆ࠄߪޔਔⴕߩᢇᷣߪ߿ࠍᓧߥޔ ޟ 㧔ᦨఝవߦߪ㧕߹ߧߌߥᅛࠄࠍᢇ߁ߎߣߛ UCXGVJGKT CUUߣޠㅪ⛊߇ࠆ㧔㧕 ޕᄢ⛔㗔ߪ )5'ߩ⚻༡ߦਇḩࠍᜬߜߥ߇ࠄ߽ਔⴕࠍ⎕✋ߐߖࠆߣ⾗ᧄᏒ ႐ࠍᷙੂߐߖߣࠞࡔࠕޔ⇇ߦᄢ߈ߥⵍኂࠍ߽ߚࠄߔߎߣࠍ⍮ߞߡߚ ޕᣣߦᏂᄢቛ㊄Ⲣᯏ 㑐 ␠ߪ⊛▤ℂਅߦ⟎߆ࠇࠆߎߣߦߥߞߚޕ )5' ߩᢇᷣߪࡑࡦߦࡊࠬߊߣᕁࠊࠇߚ߇ޔ㖧࿖↥ᬺ㌁ⴕ㧔-QTGC&GXGNQROGPV$CPM-&$㧕߇ ⾗ߔࠆߣ߁ས߇ุቯߐࠇࠆߣޔᩣଔߪਅ߇ࠅ⛯ߌ ޔᣣߦߪ ࠼࡞ࠍഀࠈ߁ߣߒޔ%&5 ࠬࡊ ࠶࠼ߪࠍ⛯ߌߚ ߪ࠼࡞ࠔࡈޕᩣ ࠼࡞એਅߢߩᄁළࠍᜎߺ( ߦࠅ߈ߒޔ4$ ߆ࠄߩ⾗㊄ᚻᒰߡࠍ ᳞ߡߊࠆޕᐭ(ޔ4$ ߪ৻ಾᢇᷣߢ߈ߥߩߣࡔࠞࡦࡃޔᷤࠍ⛯ߌࠆࠃ߁ߦߣᒝߊ⺑ᓧߔࠆࡐޕ ࡞࠰ࡦߪࠟࠗ࠻࠽ߣߦ ࡔࠞࡦࡃޔ%'1 ߩࠤࡀࠬ࡞ࠗࠬ㧔-GPPGVJ.GYKU㧕ߣࡈࠔ࡞࠼ߦ৻ೞ߽ᣧ ߊ⾈ᚻ⛯߈ࠍታⴕߔࠆࠃ߁➅ߒ⺑ᓧߔࠆ৻ߩߘޕᣇߢ߇ࡦࡑޔ⎕↥ߒߚ႐วߩḰࠍߔߔࠆޕ ࡈࠔ࠾ࡔࠗߣࡈ࠺ࠖࡑ࠶ࠢߪ⊛㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߣ߁ශ⽎ࠍฃߌࠆ߇ޔၮᧄ⊛ߦߪ᳃㑆㌁ⴕߢࠅ)ޔ5' )QXGTPOGPV 5RQPUQTGF'PVGTRTKUGߣ߫ࠇࠆޕ 9 %&5 ࠬࡊ࠶࠼ߣߪ◲ޔනߦ⸒߃߫ޔਸ਼ߖ㊄㧔⸽ᢱ㧕ߩߎߣߢޔ⎕✋ࠬࠢ߇㜞߹ࠇ߫ߔࠆޕ%&5㧔ࠢ࠺ࠖ࠶ ࠻࠺ࡈࠜ࡞࠻ࠬࡢ࠶ࡊ㧕ߪ࠺ࡃ࠹ࠖࡉߢડᬺߩା↪ࠬࠢࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߡࠆޕ%&5 ߩ⾈ᚻߪࡊࡒࠕࡓߐ߃ᡰᛄߞߡ߅ ߌ߫ޔડᬺ߇⎕↥ߒߡ߽ௌോߩరᧄߪ⸽ߐࠇࠆޔߒ߽ޕᒰડᬺ߇⎕↥ߒߥߌࠇ߫ࡓࠕࡒࡊߩߘޔㇱಽ߇⋉ߣߥࠆޕડ ᬺߩା↪ࠬࠢ߇㜞߹ࠇ߫ࡓࠕࡒࡊߩߘޔ㧔ࠬࡊ࠶࠼㧕ߪߔࠆޕ Hank Paulson, ON THE BRINK: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System, Business Plus, 2010. 101 ࠃ߁߿ߊᘒߩᷓೞߐࠍℂ⸃ߒߚࡈࠔ࡞࠼ߪ⾈ߦ೨ะ߈ߦߥࠆ߇ߩࡔࠞࡦࡃޔᣇߪ৻ะߦㅴࠆ᳇㈩ ߇ࠄࠇߥޔߛ߹ޕ߽ㅪ⛊߇ߥߣὶࠆࡈࠔ࡞࠼ߦࠆࠁࠄޟᚻࠍዧߊߒߡࠆޔߖ߆⌕ߜ⪭ߣޠ ࡃࡦࠞࡔߩ࡞ࠗࠬߦ〈ଦߩ㔚ࠍߔࠆ㧔㧕 ޔߪࠄ߆ࠬࠗ࡞ޕ ♖ޟᩏߒߚߣߎࠈࠃ߅ߪࡦࡑޔ ߘ ం࠼࡞ߩ⾗ᧄਇ⿷߇ࠅ⾈߇ࡔࠞࡦࡃޔߔࠆߦߪ ం࠼࡞⋧ᒰߩ⾗↥ࠍ㒰ᄖߔࠆߎߣ߇᧦ઙ ߢࠅߪߦߚߩߘޔᐭߩ⾗㊄េഥ߇ਇนᰳߣޠવ߃ߡߊࠆޕ࿖᳃⼏ޔળߣ߽ߦޔ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ᢇᷣߦ ⊛⾗㊄ࠍ߁ߎߣߦኻߔࠆᛕ್ߪᒝ߹ߞߡߚߩဳ࠭ࡦ࠲ࠬࠕࡌߒ߽ޟߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޕᢇᷣએᄖߦ ㆬᛯ⢇߇ߥߩߥࠄࠍࠇߘޔㆬ߱ߟ߽ࠅߛߞߚ߇ࡦࡑޕ⎕✋ߒߚࠄߘߩᣇ߇⚊⒢⠪ߦߣߞߡ㜞ߊߟ ߊߩߛޠ 㧔㧕 ߥ߁ࠃߩߘޕਛߢߩࠬࠡࠗޔ㌁ⴕ ࠭ࠗࠢࡃޔ$CTENC[U߇ࡑࡦߦ㑐ᔃࠍ ߽ߞߡࠆߣߩᖱႎ߇ࠆߣ࠭ࠗࠢࡃߦ࠼࡞ࠔࡈޕᷤㅴࠆࠃ߁ࠕ࠼ࡃࠗࠬࠍߔࠆ߇࠼࡞ࠔࡈޔ ߪหߓ࿖ౝߩࡃࡦࠞࡔߦ㑐ᔃࠍ߽ߜޔᗱ߆ߦ߽⥄␠ߩ⾗↥ࠍ߹ߛ㜞ߊ⹏ଔߒߡߚޕ ߎߩࠃ߁ߥᘒߩਛߢ ,2 ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦޔࠖ࠹ࠪޔࠬࠢ࠶ࠨࡦࡑ࠼࡞ࠧޔࡦ࠲ࠬࡦࠟ࡞ࡕޔ ࡔ࡞ࡦ࠴ࠄߩਥߚࠆ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩ %'1 ߚߜߦࡑࡦᢇᷣࠍଐ㗬ߒߚ߇ࡦࡑޔߒ߽ޕ⎕✋ߔࠇ ߫ߩߎޔ႐ߦࠆోຬߦἴ㔍߇㒠ࠅ߆߆ࠆߣޔᒝ⺞ߒߚࠍᧄ⾗ߩ␠⥄ޕෂ㒾ߦߐࠄߔߎߣߦᙬ⇼⊛ߢ ࠅߩᧄ⾗⊛ޔᵈ߇ߥߎߣ߳ߩਇḩ߽ߺࠄࠇߚ࡞ࡃࠗࠆޔߦ߆ߒߚޕડᬺߩߩࠗࡃ࡞ડᬺ ߳ߩりᄁࠅࠍ⾗㊄㕙ߢഥߌࠆࠃ߁ⷐ⺧ߐࠇߡࠆߩߛߩߎޕળ⼏ߪ➅ࠅߒⴕࠊࠇߚ߇ߦࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޔ ߣߞߡߪ⾫ޔߢߒߚߚ߆ߥડᬺኅߚߜߩ⠨߃ߪᙘ᷹ߔࠆߒ߆ߥ߆ߞߚ㧔㧕 ޕ ᦨ⚳⊛ߦߪޔฦ␠ %'1 ߪਇ⦟⾗↥ൻߒߚᄢ㊂ߩਇേ↥ߣᧂ㐿ᩣࠍࡃࠢࠗ࠭ߩ⾈ኻ⽎߆ࠄߪߕ ߒޔߦߚߩߘޔ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߪᦨᄢ ం࠼࡞ߩ៊ᄬߦ⠴߃ࠆޔࠄ߇ߥߒ߆ߒޕߚߞ߹ߣ߹ߢߣߎ߁ߣޔ ᣣߦߪⷙߩࠬࠡࠗࠄ߆࠭ࠗࠢࡃޔᒰዪ(ޔ5# (KPCPEKCN5GTXKEG#WVJQTKV[㊄Ⲣࠨࡆ ࠬᯏ᭴߆ࠄ⾈ߩᛚࠍᜎุߐࠇߚߩߣޔㅪ⛊߇ࠅޔ0; ㅪ㌁ߩࠟࠗ࠻࠽߇ (5# ߩળ㐳ࠞࡓࡑ ࠶ࠞࠪ㧔%CNNWO/E%CTVJ[㧕ߦ⋥⺣್ߔࠆ߇⚿ޔዪᢿࠄࠇࠆ⥄ࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޕり߇ࠗࠡࠬߩ⽷ോ⋧ޔ ࠕࠬ࠲࠳ࠗࡦࠣ #NKUVCKT&CTNKPIߦ┆⁁ᛂ㐿ࠍ᳞ࠆ߇ߩࠬࠡࠗޔ㊄Ⲣᬺ⇇ో߇ࠕࡔ ࠞએߦᖡਛࠇߎޔએߩ⩄‛ࠍ⢛⽶߁ߎߣߦኻߢߞߚޕ ࡃࡦࠞࡔ⾈ޔߦ߽ߣ࠭ࠗࠢࡃޔ߆ࠄᚻࠍᒁߚߎߣߦࠃࠅߪࡦࡑޔୟ↥ߩࠍㆬ߱ߎߣߦ ߥࠆߪ࠼࡞ࠔࡈޕᔅᱫߦᙣ㗿ߒߡߊࠆޕ ޔࠢࡦࡂޟߣ߆ᵴ〝ࠍߒߡߊߛߐࠃ㧍ޠ 㧔㧕 ޕ ࡈޟ ࠔ࡞࠼ߦߪࡃࡦࠞࡔ߇⾈߆ࠄ᠗ㅌߒߚታ߇㘶ߺㄟߥ߆ߞߚߪߒߚࠊޕᖱߦᵹߐࠇߕߦߪࠄࠇߥ ߆ߞߚޕ ᢙජੱߦߩ߷ࠆࡑࡦߩᓥᬺຬߚߜߩりߩ߽ᕁࠊߕߦߪࠄࠇߥ߆ߞߚޕ ޠ 㧔㧕 ભᥜ߽ߥߊޔ⠉ᣣߦ੍ᗐߐࠇࠆᏒ႐ߩᷙੂࠍᦨዊ㒢ߦ㘩ᱛࠆദജ߇⛯ߌࠄࠇߚޔߦࠄߐޕㅊ ᛂߜࠍ߆ߌࠆࠃ߁ߦ࠴ࡦ࡞ࡔޔ㧔/GTTKNN.[PEJ㧕ߣ #+) #OGTKECP+PVGTPCVKQPCN)TQWRߩ┆⁁߇ ᶋߒߡ߈ߚ߇ࡦࡑޕ⎕↥ߔࠇ߫ޔᰴߪࡔ࡞ࡦ࠴ߛߣ੍ᗐߐࠇߚ࡞ࡔ߇ࡔࠞࡦࡃޔߒ߆ߒޕ ࡦ࠴ࠍ ం࠼࡞ߢ⾈ߔࠆㄟߺߣ߁ޔࠆ࠾ࡘࠬ߇⥰ㄟ ޕᐕ ᣣඦ೨ ᤨ ಽߪࡦࡑޔᐭ߆ࠄᢇᷣߩߪߥߣ߁ᦨᓟㅢ ࠍฃߌߡޔ⎕↥ᴺߩㆡ↪ࠍ↳⺧ߒߚ ޕ ᣣߦߪ #+) ߇Ꮒ㗵ߩ㊄ਇ⿷ߦ㒱ࠆߎߣ߇ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚߩߘ߽ߡߒߣࠎߥޕ⎕↥ࠍ㘩ᱛࠆߴߊദ ജ߇⛯ߌࠄࠇߚޕ#+) ߪⷙᮨ߇ᄢ߈ߊߩߘޔ⎕↥ߦࠃࠆᛂ᠄ߪࡑࡦߩᲧߢߪߥߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇߚࡃޕ 10 90 ᐕઍߩࠊ߇࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߢታᣉߐࠇߚޔਥⷐⴕߢ⾗㊄ࠍߒ․ቯߩ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ࠍᢇᷣߔࠆߣ߁ࠊࠁࠆᄺടᏭᣇᑼߢ ࠆޕ 102 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol. 20, No. 2, March 2011 ࠽ࡦࠠߪޟ㒾ળ␠ߩߦࡋ࠶ࠫࡈࠔࡦ࠼߇ਸ਼ߞ߆ߞߡࠆ⁁ᘒ +V̉UNKMGCJGFIGHWPFUGVVKPI QPVJGVQRQHCPKPUWTCPEGEQORCP[ߣޠㅀߴߚ ࡘࠪ࠶ࡉޕᄢ⛔㗔ߪޟᴦߩ࠳ࡔࠫࠍ ฃߌߡ߽ߢࠇߘߪࠇߘޔ᭴ࠊߥޠ 㧔㧕ߣ⸒ᧄ⾗⊛ޔዉߦᢿߒߚޕ#+) ߩ㒾ሶળ␠ࠍ ᜂߦߔࠇ߫(ޔ4$ ߩⲢ⾗ߪน⢻ߢࠆߣ್ᢿߐࠇߚޕ #+) ߩᢇᷣᓟ߽㊄Ⲣෂᯏߪ߹ࠄߕޔਛ࿖♽ߩ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩᄢߥ⾗㊄ᒁ߈឴ߍ߇⛯߈߇ੱࠞࡔࠕޔ ోߣߒߡ߽ߞߣ߽ࠃߊ↪ߔࠆޔ//( ߳ߩ⸃⚂߇ฦߢㅴߺࠍࠇߎޔ⟎ߔࠇ߫ޔડᬺޔ㒾ળ␠ޔ ᐕ㊄ၮ㊄⾗߇ޔ㊄ᒁߒߦᲕߒޔᄢࡄ࠾࠶ࠢ߇⊒↢ߔࠆߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇߚޔߦߐ߹ޕ ޟᏒ႐ߪಓࠅઃ ߡࠆ VJGOCTMGVUCTGHTQ\GPޠ 㧔㧕⁁ᴫߦ㒱ߞߚࡦࡑ࠼࡞ࠧޔࡦ࠲ࠬࡦࠟ࡞ࡕޕ ࠨ࠶߽ࠢࠬᢙᣣਛߦ⎕↥ߔࠆߩߢߪߥ߆ߣ੍ᗐߐࠇߚߦߊߣޕෂᯏࠍㄫ߃ߡߚࡕ࡞ࠟࡦᢇᷣߦߟ ߡߪਛ࿖ᛩ⾗㒢⽿છม %JKPC+PXGUVOGPV%QTRQTCVKQP߅ࠃ߮ਃ⪉ 7(, ߳ߩᛂ⸻߇ᆎ߹ࠆߩߎޕ ࠃ߁ߥ㕖Ᏹᘒߩਛ⽷ޔോ⋭ࠬ࠲࠶ࡈ߇ਛᔃߣߥࠅ⼏ޔળߣදജߒޔਇ⦟⾗↥ᢇᷣࡊࡠࠣࡓ㧔6TQWDNGF #UUGVU4GNKGH2TQITCO6#42㧕߇ᚑߐࠇࠆߩߘޔߒ߆ߒޕᚑ┙ߪኈᤃߢߪߥ߆ߞߚޕᒰᤨߪࠝࡃࡑ $CTCEM1DCOCߣࡑࠤࠗࡦ ,QJP/E%CKPߩᄢ⛔㗔ㆬߩᦨਛߢࠅࠍࠇߎߪࡦࠗࠤࡑޔᴦ⊛ߦ↪ߒޔ หࡊࡦࠍޟᗧࠆ⺑⽿છ߽ߥߒߦ ߦ‛ੱߩੱ ߚߞߚޔళ࠼࡞ߣ߁ᡰᮭ㒢ࠍਈ߃ࠆޔ೨ઍ ᧂ⡞ߩ߽ߩޠ 㧔㧕ߣߒޔỗߒኻߩὥἫࠍߍߡߚ⼏ޕળߢߩ⺑ߦ߽ᄙᄢߩᤨ㑆ࠍ⾌߿ߒ ߚޕ ޟ6#42 ߪ㊄Ⲣ␠ળਥ⟵⊛ߢࠕࡔࠞ␠ળߦߪ߰ߐࠊߒߊߥߤߥޠ෩ߒ⺰߽⛯߈ޔ㐳ᤨ㑆ߦ ߱ 㧔㧕 ޕ ࠝࡃࡑߪ6#42ߦၮᧄ⊛ߦ⾥ᚑߣ߁ᆫࠍߖޔ ࡐ࡞࠰ࡦࠍ႑ߐߖࠆ 㧔㧕 ޕ 6#42 ߪᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ⛊ߺߩᴦ㗴ߦ⊒ዷߒߡߞߚޕ ᣣߦ6#42 ᴺ᩺ߪࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߚߜߩദജߦ߽߆߆ࠊࠄߕޔ ਅ㒮ߦ߅ߡ ኻ ߢุߐࠇޔ Ꮢ႐ߪᷙੂߒߚ ޕᐕߩࡉ࠶ࠢࡑࡦ࠺એ㒠ᦨᖡߩਅߍࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚ ޔߒ߆ߒޕᣣߩ㒮ߢ ߪ ኻ ߩ⾥ᚑࠍᓧ ޔᣣߩਅ㒮ߢߩౣ⼏ߢޔ6#42 ࠍ❱ࠅㄟࠎߛ㊄Ⲣቯൻᴺ㧔'OGTIGPE[ 'EQPQOKE5VCDKNK\CVKQP#EVQH㧕߇ ኻ ߢนߒߚߩߘޕᓟᧄ⾗ޔᵈࡊࡠࠣࡓߪ (4$ ߿ (&+% ߣㅪ៤ߔࠆᒻߢޔ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ߩᢇᷣߦࠊࠇޔ㊄Ⲣࠪࠬ࠹ࡓࠍᓢߦޘቯߩᣇะߦዉߡⴕߊߎ ߣߦߥࠆޕ ߘࠇߢߪ߇ߌߛࡦࡑߗߥޔ⎕↥ߒ ߿ࠕࡌޔ#+) ߪᢇᷣߐࠇߚ߆ߢࠆ߇ߪࠄ߆ᦠᧄޔᰴߩࠃ߁ ߦ⺒ߺขࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆߩࠕࡌޔߕ߹ޕ႐วߢࠆ߇ޔԘ,2 ࡕ࡞ࠟࡦߣ߁⾈⠪߇ࠇ(ޔ4$ ߩᡰ េߩਅߢ⾈ࠍ⏕⚂ߒߚ(ޕ4$ ߪᐭ⸽߇ᦌᤒߥ߹߹ࠍ⾗Ⲣޔታⴕߒߚ(ޕ4$ ߪߎߩⲢ⾗ࠍ߆⇣ޟ ߟ✕ᕆߩ⁁ᴫਅ WPFGTWPWUWCNCPFGZKIGPVEKTEWOUVCPEGU?ߢߪน⢻ߣ߁ㅪ㇌Ḱᴺ╙ ᧦ 㗄 5GEVKQPQHVJG(GFGTCN4GUGTXG#EVߦၮߠ߈ታⴕߒߚޔԙ߹ߚ(ޔ4$ ߩⲢ⾗ߦ⠴߃߁ࠆᜂ⾗ ↥߇ሽߒߚ ߦ߉ߟޕ#+) ߩ႐วߢࠆ߇ޔԘ⎕✋ߩᓇ㗀߇ࡑࡦߩ႐วࠃࠅ߽㆝߆ߦᄢ߈ߣᄢ⛔ 㗔⥄ࠄ߇⼂ߒޔᐭ߇Ⓧᭂ⊛ߦേߚߎߣޔԙሶળ␠ߩ⾗ᧄ߇ (4$ ߩⲢ⾗ߦ⠴߃ࠄࠇࠆᜂߣߒߡච ಽߢࠅߩࠕࡌޔ႐วߣหߓㅪ㇌Ḱᴺࠍᩮߦ (4$ ߇Ⲣ⾗ࠍታⴕߒߚߎߣޕࠆߢޔ ߒ߆ߒߥ߇ࠄ⚿ޔዪࠕࡔࠞߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏ߇᧤ߔࠆߩߪޔ ޟ㊄Ⲣቯൻᴺ߇ޠታⴕߦ⒖ߐࠇߡ߆ࠄߢ 11 ਃ⪉ UFJ ߪᄙᄢߥࠬࠢࠍᛴ߃ߥ߇ࠄ߽ޔ10 13 ᣣߦࡕ࡞ࠟࡦࠬ࠲ࡦߦ⾗ߔࠆߎߣࠍࠆߦࠇߘޕవ┙ߟޔ 10 10 ᣣߩ㧳㧣㐿ᤨߦ߇ࠊߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޔ࿖ߩ⽷ോ㊄Ⲣᜂᒰ⋧ޔਛᎹᤘ৻ߦਃ⪉ UFJ ߦࠃࠆᢇᷣࠍᙣ㗿ߔࠆޕਛᎹߦ ߟߡޔ ޟ᳇ߐߊߢ⽕ߥශ⽎߇ࠅޔᚒߣޘห᭽ߦỗോߦߐࠄߐࠇߡߚߣޠㅀᙬߒߡࠆ㧔442, 347-8㧕 ޕ Hank Paulson, ON THE BRINK: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System, Business Plus, 2010. 103 ࠆޔࠅ߹ߟޕ㊄Ⲣࠪࠬ࠹ࡓߩቯൻߩߚߦᐭߩ߇ᱜᑼߦࠄࠇߡ߆ࠄߢࠆޕ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐ࠍ ᐭ߇ᢇᷣߔࠆߩߪߣ߆ߊ㗴ⷞߐࠇࠆޕ㜞ࡃ࠶ࠫߢߩࠬࠠߥᛩ⾗ࠆࠃߦࠇߘޔ㜞㗵ႎ㈽ޔ ㊁ߒߦߐࠇߚᛩ⾗㌁ⴕߩታᘒࠍ⠨߃ࠆߣ߈߁ߘߦߊߣޔᕁࠊߑࠆࠍ߃ߥߩߎޔߒ߽ޔߒ߆ߒޕᴺ᩺ ߇߽ߞߣᣧᦼߦታߒߡߚߥࠄߥ߁ࠃߩߎޔ⇇⊛ἴාߪ߈ߥ߆ߞߚ߆߽ߒࠇߥߎޔࠎࠈߜ߽ޕ ࠇߪᓟ⍮ᕺߢࠆޕ ࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߪޔᐭߩ᳃㑆㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐߳ߩߦߟߡޔ ⽷ޟോ㐳ቭߣߒߡࡢࠪࡦ࠻ࡦߦછߒߚᤨ߽ޔ ߹߽↱⥄ޔᏒ႐ߩାᄺ⠪ߢࠆޠ 㧔㧕ߣߒߥ߇ࠄޔ ޟ 㧔ᐭ㧕ߦ⻢⟋ߪߒߥࠊࠍࠇߘޕ ߑࠆࠍ߃ߥ߆ߞߚߩߢࠆޕ ᦨఝవߔߴ߈ߪ⚻ᷣߩ࿁ᓳߢࠆޕ ࠕࡔࠞ⾗ᧄਥ⟵ߪޔ⋉ ㅊ᳞ဳߩᏒ႐ේℂߣߘࠇࠍߩߚߦ↢߆ߔ߁߃ߢᔅⷐߥ৻ㅪߩⷙ߿ᴺᓞߣࠍ߁߹ߊ⺞ߐߖࠆ ߎߣߦࠃࠅޔᱧผࠍ⚜ߢ߈ߚޕ ޠ 㧔㧕ߣ⚿ࠎߢࠆޕ ᦨᓟߦ↢߈㚍ߩ⌒ࠍᛮߊߣ߁࠙ࠝ࡞ⴝࠍ↢߈ᛮߡ߈ߚࡐ࡞࠰ࡦߩ߽߁৻ߟߩ㕙ࠍ⚫ߒ ߡߎߩᦠ⹏ࠍ⚳߃ߚޕ⡯ോߦᾲᔃߥ߹ࠅኅᐸߢߩᤨ㑆߇ዋߥߊߥࠅޔᆄߩ࠙ࠛࡦ࠺ࠖ߆ࠄߣߞ߽ޟ ᣧߊᏫቛߒߡሶଏߚߜߦᶎߐߖߺ⺒ࠍᧄޔ⡞߆ߖࠆࠃ߁ޠᒝߊ⸒ࠊࠇޔታ㓙ߦࡢࠢࠗࡈࡃࡦ ࠬࠍታߒߚߎߣ㧔㧕 ޕᷓᄛޔ㊀ࠍᒁ߈ߕࠅߦ࡞࠹ࡎޔᚯࠅߩ⚻ޔ㜞߱ࠅࠍᛥ߃ޔᾫ⌧ߔࠆ ߚߦߦ⮎⌁⌧ޔᚻࠍߛߘ߁ߣߔࠆ߇⮎ޔߩੂ↪ࠍߓࠆࠢࠬ࠴ࡖࡦߢࠆߎߣࠍᕁߒޔ ޟ㍤ ߣ↉ߩਛりߔߴߡࠍ࠻ࠗߦᵹߒߚߪߒߚࠊޕࠄ߆ߥ⌁ࠅࠍಾታߦ᳞ߡߚࠍޔߢߎߘޕ㗬ߞ ߡࠅࠍᝤߍࠆߎߣߦߒߚޠ 㧔㧕 ߩࡦࡑࠃࠃޕୟ↥߇ታߩ߽ߩߣߥࠅ߇ߡߴߔޔ፣უ ߔࠆਛߦࠖ࠺ࡦࠛ࠙ߪࡦ࠰࡞ࡐޔ㔚ࠍߔࠆޕ ޟ㊄Ⲣࠪࠬ࠹ࡓ߇უṌߒߚࠄߤ߁ߥࠆߩߛࠈ߁ޕߩ ਛ߆ࠄ৻りߦᵈ⋡ߐࠇߡࠆߣ߁ߩߦޔᛂ㐿╷߇߃ߡߎߥޕᕟᔺߢ⢷߇ߟ߹ࠅߘ߁ߛޠ ޕᆄߪޟᕟ ࠇߥߊߡ߽ࠊߩߚߥޕോߪߩᓮᔃޔή┆ߩᔃߦᴪ߁ߎߣߏߩޕട⼔ߦ㗬ࠇ߫ߢߒࠂ߁ޠ ߣ⸒ߥ߇ࠄޔᓐࠄ߇ߟ߽໒߃ࠆ⡛ᦠߩ ▵ࠍ໒߃ߡߊࠇࠆ㧔㧕 ޕ ෳ⠨ᢥ₂ )WNDTCPUGP-TKUVKP 0QTIGU$CPM%QPHGTGPEG1P$CPMKPI%TKUKU4GUQNWVKQP̆6JGQT[CPF 2QNKE[1UNQ,WPG ,QPWPI.CTU,CCMMQ-KCPFGTCPF2GPVVK8CTVKC GFU 6JG)TGCV(KPCPEKCN%TKUKUKP(KPNCPF CPF5YGFGP㧧6JG0QTFKE'ZRGTKGPEGQH(KPCPEKCN.KDGTCNK\CVKQP'FYCTF'NICT%JGNVGPJCO 7-̒0QTVJCORVQP/#75# -KPFNGDGTIGT%JTCNGU2㧔㧕/CPKCU2CPKEUCPF%TCUJGŬ#*KUVQT[QH(KPCPEKCN%TKUGU ̆VJGF2CNITCXG/CEOKNNCP ศ㊁ବᒾᧁ↭⸶ޡᾲ⁅ޔᕟᘓޔ፣უ㧧㊄Ⲣᕟᘓߩᱧ ผޢᣣᧄ⚻ᷣᣂ⡞␠㧚 /GNV\GT#NNCP* ̌4GIWNCVQT[4GHQTOCPFVJG(GFGTCN4GUGTXG̍6GUVKOQP[DGHQTGVJG 5WDEQOOKVVGGQP/QPGVCT[2QNKE[*QWUG%QOOKVVGGQP(KPCPEKCN5GTXKEGU,WN[ YYYJQWUGIQXCRRUNKUVJGCTKPIHKPCPEKCNUXEUAFGOOGNV\GTAVGUVKOQP[RFH 2CTMGT4CPFCNN' 6JG'EQPQOKEUQHVJG)TGCV&GRTGUUKQP#6YGPV[(KTUV%GPVWT[.QQM$CEM 104 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol. 20, No. 2, March 2011 CVVJG'EQPQOKEUQHVJG+PVGTYCT'TC%JGNVGPJCO7-'FYCTF'NICT 5JKIGOK; #UUGV+PHNCVKQPKP5GNGEVGF%QWPVTKGU$1,/QPGVCT[CPF'EQPQOKE5VWFKGU 8QN0Q ችᎹ㊀⟵㧔㧕 ޟᄢᕟᘓߣߘߩᢎ⸠ޠ ޡ੩ㇺቇᄢቇ⚻ᷣቇㇱ⺰㓸╙ޢᏎ╙ภRR㧚 ችᎹ㊀⟵㧔㧕 ޟ㊄Ⲣෂᯏ৻⠨ኤ̆ࠬࠞࡦ࠺ࠖ࠽ࡆࠕ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߩࠤࠬ̆ޠ ޡ੩ㇺቇᄢቇ⚻ᷣቇㇱ⺰㓸╙ޢᏎ╙ภRR㧚 9JGGNQEM&CXKF% .GUUQPU.GCTPGF!%QORCTKPIVJG(GFGTCN4GUGTXG̉ U4GURQPUGU VQVJG%TKUGUQH̆CPF̆(GFGTCN4GUGTXG$CPMQH5V.QWKU4GXKGY /CTEJ#RTKN RR̆