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地球温暖化問題懐疑論へのコメント - 東北大学 東北アジア研究センター
地球温暖化問題懐疑論へのコメント 2007 ᖳ 6 ᭮ 15 Ver.2.31 （http://www.cir.tohoku.ac.jp/~asuka/） ᮶ኬᏕ ᪺㤮ኑᕖ Ẵ㇗◂✪ᡜ ྚᮟ⣟ ᾇὊ◂✪㛜Ⓠᶭᵋ ቌ⏛⪌ୌ ᾇὊ◂✪㛜Ⓠᶭᵋ ἑᐋᮅ▩⏍ ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜ ỜᏬḿኣ ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜ 㔕Ἁᚥ ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜ 㧏ᶣ₡ ࣀ࣭ࣁ࣭ࢺኬᏕ ເṂྍ 㸱さ ᪠㸳 ெⅥ㉫″ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝࢅཋᅄ࡛ࡊ࡙ᆀ⌣ぞᶅ࡚ẴುῺᬦࡌࡾ࡛࠷࠹ࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾ ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦㄵ࡞ᑊࡊࠉ ᠔Ⓩ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢྫྷᏽⓏぜよࢅ࡛ࡾㄵㄕᮇᅗහ࡚ࡵᏋᅹࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ♣ఌ࠾ࡼࡡಘ㢏࡞ࡐࡡὩິᇱ┑ࢅ⨠ࡂ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࢤ࣐ࣖࢼࢷࡢࠉࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ⌟≟ࢅᗑっࡌࡀ࡚ ࡢ࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉᮇ✇࡚ࡢࡆࡿࡼࡡㄵㄕ࠾ࡼㄵⅤࢅᣘ࠷୕ࡅࠉୌ᪁Ⓩࠉ ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㛣㐢ࡖࡒヾㆉ࡞ᇱࡘࡂᘿ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏཬㄵࢅ⾔࠹ࠊ 1 ࡢࡋࡴ࡞ ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦၡ㢗㸝௧ୖ࡚ࡢῺᬦၡ㢗㸞࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉኣࡂࡡ☔ᐁᛮṟࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ ῺᬦࡡெⅥⓏさᅄࡷᑊ➿ࡡᚪさᛮ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉࡆࡿࡱ࡚ࡡ▩ぜࢅ↋っࡌࡾ࠾ࡡࡻ࠹㆗ㄵࡵᩋ ぜࡈࡿࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉᵕࠍㄵⅤࢅᩒ⌦ࡊࠉ᩺ࡒ▩ぜࢅ⣺ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉῺᬦ ၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡌࡾᘋスⓏ㆗ㄵࢅ᥆㐅ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡡ㔔さᛮࡢ㧏࠷࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ ࡐࡡࡒࡴࠉᮇ✇࡚ࡢࠉ⌟ᅹ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾῺᬦࡡさᅄࢅࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁௧㜾ࡡெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ ࡡᤴฝࢅさᅄ࡛ࡌࡾ⩻࠻᪁㸝௧ୖ࡚ࡢࠉࠔெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࠕ࡛ࡩ㸞࡞ᑊ ࡊ࡙ࠉ᠔Ⓩ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢྫྷᏽⓏゕㄕ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾᵌ⏛㸝1999ࠉ2004ࠉ2005aࠉ2005bࠉ2006ࠉ2007㸞 ࠉ ⷾᖅ㝌㸝2002㸞 ࠉῳ㎰㸝2005ࠉ2006㸞ࠉ⸠㸝2003ࠉ2005ࠉ2006㸞 ࠉ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࠉờ⏛㸝2006㸞 ࠉ ▦Ἁ㸝2007㸞ࠉLenoir㸝2001㸞 ࠉLomborg㸝2001ࠉ2005㸞ࠉṂ⏛㸝2007㸞ࠉCrichton㸝2007㸞ࢅ ୯ᚨ࡞ࠉᙴࡼࡡ㆗ㄵ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࢅ௧ୖࡡࡻ࠹࡞ฦࡄ࡙ᩒ⌦ࡊࡒࠊ 1. Ὼᬦၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔྙណࠕ 2. Ὼᬦ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐ሒ㐠 3. Ὼᬦၡ㢗ࡡ⛁ᏕⓏᇱ♇ 3.1. 㐛ཡ࠽ࡻࡦ⌟ᅹࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ 3.2. ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌ 3.3. ᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡᵋ㏸࣬කᏕ≁ᛮ 4. Ὼᬦၡ㢗ࡡඁ㡨న ᮇ✇ࡢࠉ2005 ᖳᗐ⎌ሾ⤊ῥ࣬ᨳ➿Ꮥఌ㸝2005 ᖳ 9 ᭮᮶ா㸞࡚ࡡゞㄵ㈠ᩩ࠽ࡻࡦ 2006 ᖳ 2 ᭮ 18 ࡞᮶ாࡡ㧏༐✉ኬᏕ࡚㛜തࡈࡿࡒ᪺㤮ኑᕖ࣬ྚᮟ⣟࡛ᵌ⏛ᩌ࣬୯ᮇḿୌ᭹୦Ắ࡞ࡻࡾࠔᆀ ⌣Ὼᬦ࡞㛭ࡌࡾප㛜ゞㄵఌࠕࡡ᪺㤮࣬ྚᮟഁ࠾ࡼࡡ㈠ᩩࢅࡵ࡛࡞ಞḿ࣬ຊ➱ࢅ⾔ࡖࡒࡵࡡ ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉᮇ࣭࣋ࣂ࣭࡛࡛ࡵ࡞ࠉࡆࡡࠔᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ࡞㛭ࡌࡾප㛜ゞㄵఌࠕࡡⓆ⾪㈠ ᩩࢅྙࢂࡎ࡙ࡇୌㄖ࠷ࡒࡓࡄࡾ࡛ࠉ᠔ㄵ ᣚࡗㄵ⌦ᩒྙᛮ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ⌦よࡱࡾ㸝᪺㤮 ኑᕖ࣬ྚᮟ⣟ࡡࣂ࣭࣠࣎ࣤࢹⓆ⾪㈠ᩩࡢࠉhttp://www.cir.tohoku.ac.jp/omura-p/omuraCDM/ ࠾ࡼࢱ࣭ࣤࣞࢺྊ⬗㸞ࠊ ࡱࡒࠉྜྷᵕࡡ㉻᪠࡚␏ࡖࡒㄖ⩽ᒒࢅᑊ㇗࡞ࠉ᪺㤮ࡼ㸝2006㸞ࠉቌ⏛ࡼ㸝2006㸞⥪ㄕࢅ ᇮ➱ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ⡷ᅗࡡ➠ୌ⥲ࡡ◂✪⩽ࡼ୯ᚨ࡞ࡖ࡙㐘ႜࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࣇࣞࢡ “Real Climate”㸝http://www.realclimate.org㸞࡚ࡢࠉῺᬦ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜࡷ㆗ㄵࢹࣅࢴࢠࡇ࡛ ࡞よㄕࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ᠔ㄵ⩽࡞ࡻࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࡷࡐࡿ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࢅㄖࡳࡆ࡛ฝᮮࡾ ࡡ࡚⮾࠷ࠊ ௧ୖ࡞ࠉῺᬦၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡌࡾ▩ㆉࣝ࣊ࣜ࡞ᚺࡋࡒ᥆ⷸ࢘ࣇࢦࢹࡡୌのࢅࡱ࡛ࡴࡒࠊࡇཤ ↯࠷ࡒࡓࡄࡿࡣᖶ࠷࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 2 1㸞Ὼᬦၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢิᚨ⩽ࡡெྡྷࡄ NCAR: Weather and climate basics http://www.eo.ucar.edu/basics/index.html Oxford University: The basics of climate prediction http://www.begbroke.ox.ac.uk/climate/interface.html Pew Center: Global Warming basics http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/ NASA: Global Warming update http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarmingUpdate/ ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜᆀ⌣⎌ሾࢬࣤࢰ࣭: ぜ࡙ࠉㄖࢆ࡚ࠉ⌦よࡌࡾ ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ㈠ᩩ㞗 http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/ws/opening.html Wikipedia: Global Warming http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming 2㸞࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡢ▩ㆉࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾெྡྷࡄ The IPCC AR4: Frequently Asked Questions http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html Hadley Centre: Climate change and the greenhouse effect-A briefing http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/ Royal Society: Guide to facts and fictions about climate change http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/page.asp?id=2986 ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜᆀ⌣⎌ሾࢬࣤࢰ࣭: ࢤࢤ▩ࡽࡒ࠷Ὼᬦ http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/qa/qa_index-j.html 3㸞࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡢ▩ㆉࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉࡻࡽࡴࡒ࠷ெྡྷࡄ IPCC 第四次報告書（AR4 2007）http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html IPCC 第三次報告書（TAR 2001）http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm. 4㸞Ὼᬦၡ㢗ࢅᕙࡾ⛁ᏕࡡṌྍࢅ▩ࡽࡒ࠷ெྡྷࡄ Spencer Weart's "Discovery of Global Warming" (AIP) http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html 5㸞࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡢ▩ㆉࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷࡙ࠉ࠾ࡗ᠔Ὤࡡᘿ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏ࡞ཬ㥅ࡊࡒ࠷ெྡྷࡄ Coby Beck's How to talk to Global Warming Skeptic http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics 3 New Scientist: Climate Change: A guide for the perplexed http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462 RealClimate: Response to common contrarian arguments http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Responses NERC (UK): Climate change debate summary http://www.nerc.ac.uk/about/consult/debate/climatechange/summary.asp A Few Things Ill Considered http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/ ெࡡ࢞ࣔࣂࢨࢷ࡞ࡢ㝀⏲࠵ࡽࠉ᩺ࡒ▩ぜࡵḗࠍ࡛⌟ࡿࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉᮇ✇ࡢ࠵ࡂ ࡱ࡚ࡵ ver.2.3 ࡚࠵ࡽࠉౚ࠻ࡣῺᬦၡ㢗ࡡ⛁ᏕⓏᇱ♇࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉᮇẴ㇗Ꮥఌࡡሔ࡚ࡡ ⤽⤾Ⓩ㆗ㄵᚪさࡓ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ࠽ࠉᮇ✇ࡡ 1ࠉ2ࠉ4 ࡢ᪺㤮ᢰᙔࡊ࡙ᇮ➱ࡊࠉ3 ࡢධ ဤ࡚ฦᢰࡊ࡙ᇮ➱ࡊࡒࠊ 4 1. Ὼᬦၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔྙណࠕ ㆗ㄵ 1. Ὼᬦࠉ≁࡞ῺᬦࡡெⅥⓏᙫ㡢࡞㛭ࡌࡾୠ⏲Ⓩྙណࡢ࠷ࠊ ッᣈ 1. ධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡඔఌ㛏㸝Frederick Seitz㸞 㸝ࡵ㸞ா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡ࢅྫྷᏽࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ ୠ⏲࡚ࡢࠉῺᬦ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙᠔Ⓩ㆗ㄵὩⓆ࡞ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.74㸰▦Ἁ 2007㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ➠ୌ࡞ࠉ௫࡞ࡐࡡெ∸ࡡ⫢᭡ࡀర࡚࠵ࢀ࠹࡛ࠉୌெࡡெࡡណぜࡌ࡙ࡡណぜࢅ⾪ࡌ ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ➠࡞ࠉOreskes㸝2004㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ ͆Global Climate Change͇࡛࠷࠹࣭࣭࢞࣠ ࢺ࡚ࠉ1993 ᖳ࠾ࡼ 2003 ᖳࡱ࡚࡞Ⓠ⾪ࡈࡿࠉISI ࢸ࣭ࢰ࣭࣊ࢪ࡞Ⓡ㘋ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾᰕㄖࡀࡡ࣭࣋ ࣂ࣭ࢅฦᯊࡊࡒ࡛ࡆࢀࠉ928 ࣭࣋ࣂ࣭ルᙔࡊࠉ࠾ࡗࠉࡐࡡ୯࡚Ὼᬦ࡞ᑊࡌࡾெⅥⓏᙫ㡢 ࡡᏋᅹࢅྫྷᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡࡢୌࡗࡵ࠾ࡖࡒࠊ➠࡞ࠉ⡷ᅗ࡚ࡢࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡ࡞ࠉ the American Meteorological Societyࠉthe American Geophysical Unionࠉthe American Association for the Advancement of the Science ࡡࡻ࠹ᏕఌࡵࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅᨥᣚࡌࡾපᘟ ᩝ᭡ࢅⓆ⾪ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉୠ⏲ࡡᏕ⾙ᅆమྙྜྷ࡚ெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅᨥᣚࡌ ࡾኇ᪺ࢅฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝http://www.scj.go.jp/ja/info/kohyo/pdf/kohyo-19-s1027w.pdf㸞ࠊ ࡌࢂࡔࠉᑛࡂ࡛ࡵୠ⏲࠽ࡻࡦ⡷ᅗහࡡ࢜ࢸ࣐࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠔྙណࡢ࠵ࡾࠕ࡛ࡌࡾ᪁ ≟Ἓヾㆉ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡢḿ☔࡚࠵ࡾࠊୌ᪁ࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾ᠔ㄵ⩽ࡡ᪁ࠍࡢᅸⓏᑛᩐὬ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠾ࡗ ධࡂฦ㔕␏ࡾᑍ㛓አࡡ◂✪⩽࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㟸◂✪⩽࡚࠵ࡾሔྙᑛࡂ࠷ࠊ ࡵࡔࢀࢆࠉࡐࡡࡻ࠹᪁ࠍ㆗ㄵࢅࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷ࡄ࠷ࠉ࡛࠷࠹ណ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ⚶ࡒࡔゕ࠷ࡒ ࠷ࡡࡢࠉ㆗ㄵࢅࡌࡾࡡࡼࠉୠ⏲୯ࡡᵕࠍฦ㔕ࡡᏕ⏲࡞࠽࠷࡙ኣࡂࡡ◂✪⩽⾔ࡖ࡙ࡀࡒ㆗ ㄵࡡᖉ⤎ࡷ᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜࢅ༎ฦ࡞㊻ࡱ࠻ࡒ୕࡚㆗ㄵࢅࡊ࡙ࡊ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉࡆࡡ ࡻ࠹࡞さ᭻ࡌࡾࡡࡢῺᬦ࡞㛭ࢂࡾ◂✪࡞ᚉࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡛ࡊ࡙ᶋᬸឺᗐ࡚ࡢ࠷࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ ࠽ࠉெⅥᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦࡡཋᅄ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾッᣈࢅ♟ࡎࠉ࡛࠷࠹ᢀึ࠵ࡾ ࠷ࡢさịࢅࡻࡂ⪲ࡂࠉῺᬦࡡࢦ࢙ࣤࢪ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙␏ࡾ▩ㆉࣝ࣊ࣜࢅᣚࡗᵕࠍ᠔ㄵ⩽ ࠉୌమరࢅᣚࡖ࡙ࠔ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦࡡཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾッᣈࠕ࡛ヾࡴࡾࡡ࠾᪺☔࡚࠷ࡒ ࡴర࡛ࡵ➽࠻ࡻ࠹࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡡ⋙├ཬᚺ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉ௫࡞ᢀึ⩽ࠉ⏍∸ࡷᏕࡡᑊ ↯ᐁ㥺ࡡ⤎ᯕࡡࡻ࠹ࣝ࣊ࣜࡡࠔッᣈࠕࢅさịࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉᆀ⌣ࡵ࠹ୌࡗ࡛ኬᆵࡡ ࢰ࣑࣏ࢨࣤᚪさ࡛ࡾࠊ ࠔ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࠾ࡼ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾῺᬦࡢ㓗⅛⣪ཋᅄࠕ࡛࠷࠹ெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪ ῺᬦㄕࡢࠉᩐᏕࡡᏽ⌦ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ཚᐠ࡞ッ᪺ࡈࡿࡒࡵࡡ࡚ࡢࡂࠉ⛁Ꮥࡡ㆗ㄵࡡኬ㒂ฦ࡛ྜྷᵕࠉ ௫ㄕ࡚࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠻ࡾࠊࡒࡓࡊࠉࡆࡡ㆗ㄵࡢࠉࡥ࡛ࡗࡡỬᏽⓏッᣈ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙┷അᏽࡱࡾࡻ࠹ ௫ㄕ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉᵕࠍふῼᐁࠉ∸⌦Ἢ์ࠉࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ⤎ᯕ࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ ࡙ࠉẴು࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ࠻ࡾᅄᏄ㸝㓗⅛⣪ࠉࣆࣞࣤࠉ࣒ࢰࣤࠉỀⵠẴࠉኯ㝟Ὡິࠉ◪㯜㓗∸ࠉ ࡌࡌ㸞ࡡኬࡀࡈࢅ⥪ྙⓏ࡞ㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡞⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡒ௫ㄕ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉධ ࡙ࡡẴುᏕ⩽ྜྷណࡊࡒ㆗ㄵ࡚ࡵ࠵ࡽࠉᑛࡂ࡛ࡵ⌟Ⅴ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉࡐࡡಘ៨ᛮࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾ ࡻ࠹ふῼᐁࡢⓑ↋࡞➴ࡊ࠷ࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉ࠷ࡱ⚶ࡒࡔ࡞ịࡴࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹≟Ἓ 5 ࡡࡵ࡛࡚ࡡ㜭ཋ์࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ࡒᨳ➿Ⓩึ᩷࡞ࡻࡾࣛࢪࢠ⟮⌦ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ッᣈ 2. ࠔா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡࡞ᢀࡌࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹Ⴟ㢢᭡㸝࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡㸞࡞ 1 ᩐ༐ெࡡ⛁Ꮥ⩽ ࡡ⨣ྞ㞗ࡱࡖࡒ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.74㸰▦Ἁ 2007㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 1998 ᖳ࡞⡷ᅗࡡࢨࣤࢠࢰࣤࢠ࡚࠵ࡾ Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine㸝OISM㸞⾔ࡖ ࡒ͆Oregon Petition͇ 㸝࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡㸞ࡢࠉ⡷ᅗ㆗ఌ࡞ࡻࡾா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡ᢀ㜴Ḿࢅ┘Ⓩ࡞⾔ࢂ 㸣㸣㸣 ࡿࡒ᠔Ὤ࡞ࡻࡾႿ㢢㐘ິ࡚࠵ࡽࠉႿ㢢᭡࠽ࡻࡦᚃ㏑ࡌࡾࣝࣄ࣭ࣖㄵᩝࡵࡀࢅ OISM ᩐ ெ࡞㒉㏞ࡊࡒ࡛ࡆࢀࠉ⣑ 1 7 ༐ெࡡࠔ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࠕࡡ⨣ྞ㞗ࡱࡖࡒ࡛႒ఎࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡒࡴ࡞ࠉ ᠔Ὤࡡᩐࡡኣࡈࡷເງࡡኬࡀࡈࢅ♟ࡌࡵࡡ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡊࡣࡊࡣ᠔Ὤ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᘤ⏕ࡈࡿࡾ㸝࢛ࣝ 㸣㸣㸣 ࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉႿ㢢᭡ࠉႿ㢢᭡࡛භ࡞㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒࣝࣄ࣭ࣖㄵᩝࡵࡀࠉ⨣ྞ⩽ࡡྞ๑ ࡡࡌ࡙ http://www.oism.org/pproject/࠾ࡼࢱ࣭ࣤࣞࢺྊ⬗㸞ࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡢࠉ ࠔ 㸝ࡆࡿ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙㸞てࡴࡒࠕ࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾ㸝p.74㸞ࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆࡡႿ㢢᭡ࡡಘ㢏ᛮ࡞ࡢኬࡀၡ➚ࡗࡂࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ 2001 ᖳ࡞⡷ Scientific American ヽࠉࡆࡡႿ㢢᭡࡞⨣ྞࡊࡒ୯࡚ Ph.D ಕᣚ⩽࡛ᘿࡌࡾ 1400 ெࡡ࠹ࡔࣚࣤࢱ࣑࡞ 30 ெࢅ㐽 ࢆ࡚㏛㊟ㄢᰕࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Musser 2001㸞ࠊࡆࡡㄢᰕ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉࡱࡍ 30 ெࡡ࠹ࡔ 26 ெᵕࠍ ࢸ࣭ࢰ࣭࣊ࢪ࡚☔ヾ࡚ࡀࠉࡆࡡ 26 ெࡡ࠹ࡔࡡ 11 ெࠉ⌟ᅹ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡵࠔႿ㢢ࠕ࡞ࡢ㈰ᠺ࡚ࠉ ࡐࡡ࠹ࡔࡡ 1 ெࡢ⌟ᅹ࡚ࡵὩິ୯ࡡẴುᏕ⩽ࠉ2 ெࡢ㛭౿ࡌࡾᏕၡฦ㔕࡚ࡡ◂✪⩽ࠉ8 ெࡢ ࣤࣆ࢚࣭࣏ࣜフ౮࡞ᇱࡘ࠷࡙Ⴟ㢢᭡࡞⨣ྞࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࠊୌ᪁ࠉ☔ヾࡈࡿࡒ 26 ெࡡ࠹ࡔ 6 ெࡢࠉ ⌟Ⅴ࡚࠵ࡿࡣ⨣ྞࡊ࠾ࡖࡒ࡛㏑ࠉ3 ெࡢႿ㢢᭡⮤మධࡂオ᠀࡞ࡂࠉ1 ெࡢࡌ࡚࡞Ṓ ஷࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࠊṟࡽࡡ 5 ெࡢరᅂࡵࢤࣤࢰࢠࢹࢅモࡲࡒࡵࡡࡡࠉరࡵ㏁➽࠾ࡖࡒࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ 30 ெࡡ࠹ࡔࠉ2001 ᖳⅤ࡚ࡵ✒ᴗⓏ᠔ㄵࢅᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾẴುᏕ⩽ࡢୌெࡊ࠾࠷࠷ࡆ࡛ ࡞ࡾ㸝㛭㏻ฦ㔕ࡡ◂✪⩽ࢅྱࡴࡿࡣ 3 ெ㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉ࠵ࡾࢩ࣭ࣔࢻࣛࢪࢹࡢࠔ10 ฦࡂࡼ࠷⨣ྞ ⩽ࡡࣛࢪࢹࢅࡔࡼࡖ࡛ぜࡒࡓࡄ࡚ࡵࠉྜྷጞྜྷྞ㸝ெࡡ Joe R.Eaglemansࠉ ெࡡ David Tompkins㸞ࠉ ጞ࠷ྞ๑㸝Biolchini㸞 ࠉఌ♣ࡡྞ๑㸝Graybeal & Sayre, Inc㸞 ࠉ᪺ࡼ࠾അྞ㸝Redwine, Ph.D.㸞 ぜࡗ࠾ࡾࠕ࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Shelly 2005㸞 ࠊ ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ࡢࠉ⨣ྞ⩽ࡢྞ๑ࡡࡲ᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡓࡄ࡚ࠉᡜᒌࠉ⤊ Ṍࠉ㏻⤙ࡢࡌ࡙᪺࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉⴥࡊࡂ㏩᪺ᛮ࡞Ḗࡄࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡵࡐ ࡵಘ㢏ᛮனࠍࢅ㆗ㄵ࡚ࡀࡾࣝ࣊ࣜࡡࡵࡡ࡚ࡈ࠻࠷ࠊ ࠽ࠉࡆࡡ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ᐍ⩽࡛ࡊ࡙㛭ࢂࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ Frederick Seitz ࡚࠵ࡽࠉᙴࣞ ࢴࢠࣆ࣭࢘ࣚኬᏕࡡᏕ㛏ࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡒ㝷࡞ࠉ ኬᏕࡢࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࠾ࡼ 4500 ࢺࣜࡡ⊡㔘ࢅུࡄ࡙ࠉ ᙴ⮤㌗ࡢࠉኬᏕࢅ㎙ࡴࡾᑛࡊ๑࡞ࠉࡐࡡࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࡛᭯⤝ࡡ㝀ࡊࢤࣤࢦࣜࢰࣤࢹ࡛ࡊ࡙㞘 ⏕ዉ⣑ࢅ⤎ࢆ࡚࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉᙴࡢࠔ㛣႖↦ࡡᗛ⿍ᐐࡢ࠷ࠕ࡛ᙁࡂᘿࡊ⤾ࡄ࡙࠷ࡒࡒ ࡴࠉཬࢰࣁࢤᅆమ࠾ࡼࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࡛ࡡ㔘㖱Ⓩ⒭╌ࢅᣞᦤࡈࡿ⤾ࡄ࡙ࡀࡒெ∸࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ᐁࡢࠉࢰࣁࢤ࡛Ὼᬦ᠔Ὤ࡛ࡡ㛭౿ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞⮾ࡂࠉ⡷ᅗࡡ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࢡ࣭ࣜࣈࠔ៎ࡌࡾ ⛁Ꮥ⩽ྜྷ┍㸝Union of Concerned Scientist㸞 ࠕࠉ2007 ᖳ 1 ᭮࡞࢙ࢠࢮ࣓࣭ࣤࣄࣜ♣࡛᠔Ὤ࡛ 6 ࡡࡗࡽ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㟸ᖏ࡞レ⣵࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹࢅฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Union of Concerned Scientist 2007㸞ࠊ ᐁ㝷࡞ࠉ㈠㔘″࡛ࡖ࡙⡷ᅗࡡῺᬦ᠔Ὤࢅ᧧ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢ▴ἔ࣒ࢩ࣭ࣔࡡ࢙ࢠࢮ࣓࣭ࣤࣄ ࣜ♣࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ࿔▩ࡡᐁ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡆࡡ࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ࠾ࡗ࡙ࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࡛ࡖࡒ ᡋ␆࡛࢙ࢠࢮ࣓࣭ࣤࣄࣜ♣࡛ࡖࡒᡋ␆ࡢ㓖జࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡡ୯ᚨெ∸ࡵࠉ๑ฝࡡ Frederick Seitz ᩐெࡓࡩࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡆࡿࡼࡡᐁࡓࡄ࡚ࡵࠉ࠾࠾ࠔࡀࢂ࠷ࠕࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠉᐁࡢ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ࡢࠉ௧ୖ ࡡࡻ࠹ࡵࡖ࡛ࡀࢂ࠷Ⅴ࠵ࡾ1ࠊ ➠ୌ࡞ࠉႿ㢢᭡࡛ୌ⥬࡞ “Research Review of the Global Warming Evidence” ࡛ࡊ࡙㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒ 㸣㸣㸣 ࣝࣄ࣭ࣖㄵᩝࡵࡀ ࡢࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ฝ∟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾᏕఌヽ Proceedings of National 㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣 Academy of Science㸝PNAS 㸞࡞ᰕㄖࡀ࡚᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࢛ࣆࢨࣔࣜㄵᩝࡡᵕᘟ࡛ධࡂྜྷࡋ 㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣 ࡻ࠹ᵕᘟ࡚༰ใࡈࡿ࡙㒼ࡼࡿࡒࡒࡴࠉᑛ࠾ࡼெࠔPNAS ࡡᰕㄖࢅ㏳ࡖࡒㄵᩝࡡืใࡽࠕ ࠔධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭࠽ቕࡀࢅ࠻ࡒㄵᩝࠕ࡛࠷࠹༰㇗ࢅུࡄࡒࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡῦአᢰᙔ࡚࠵ࡾ F. Sherwood Rowland㸝ᙴ⮤㌗ࡢኬẴᏕࡡ◂✪⩽㸞ࡢࠉࠔㄵᩝࢅུࡄ ཱིࡖࡒ◂✪⩽ࡢࠉㄙ࠾⮤ฦࡒࡔࢅࡓࡱࡐ࠹࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷࠾࡛⩻࠻ࡒࠕ࡛㏑࡙࠷ࡾ 㸝Lambert 2004㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉ࢜ࣁ࣭࣬ࣝࢰ࣭ࡡᕣࡊฝࡊெ࡚࠵ࡾ Frederick Seitz ࡡ⫢᭡ࡀࠔඔධ ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ఌ㛏ࠕ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡒࡒࡴࠉࠔᙴࡱࡓධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡ㐘ႜ࡞㛭౿ࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹༰㇗ࡵ࠻ࡒ㸝ఌ㛏ࢅຸࡴࡒࡡࡢ 60 ᖳ࡚ࠉ⌟ᅹࡡᖳ㱃ࡢ 95 ᡧ㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡼࡡㄏ よࢅよࡂࡒࡴ࡞ࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡢࠉ ࠔOISM ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒㄵᩝ࡛ධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢜ࢸ࣐ ࣭ࡢධࡂ㛭౿ࡂࠉㄵᩝࡢ PNAS ࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿࡒᰕㄖࡀㄵᩝ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹␏ౚࡡኇ᪺ࢅࡌ ࡃ࡞ฝࡈࡉࡾࢅᚋ࠾ࡖࡒ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ➠࡞ࠉ㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒㄵᩝࡡ➠ୌⴥ⩽࡚࠵ࡾ Arthur Robinson ࡢ⏍Ꮥ⩽࡚ࠉ➠ࠉ➠ࡡⴥ⩽ ࡚࠵ࡾ Sallie Baliunas ࡛ Willie Soon ࡢࠉᏫᏼ∸⌦Ꮥ⩽࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉ▴ἔఌ♣ࢪ࣎ࣤࢦ࣭ ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࢨࣤࢠࢰࣤࢠ࡛࠷ࡗࡽࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ➠ᄿⴥ⩽ࡡ Zachary W. Robinson ࡢࠉ ➠ୌⴥ⩽ࡡ Arthur Robinson ࡡᏄ࡚࠵ࡽࠉShelly㸝2005㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ⛁Ꮥ⩽࡛ࡊ࡙ࡡࣈࣞࣆ࢘ ࢴࢨࣘࢻࣜࢹ࣭ࣝࢼࣤࢡࡢུࡄ࡙࠷࠷ெ∸࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ➠࡞ࠉㄵᩝࡡහᐖࡓࠉࡆࡿࡢ “Research Review of the Global Warming Evidence”࡛ࡊ࡙㒼 ᕱࡈࡿࡒࡵࡡࡡࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢࠉ“Research Review of the Evidence against Global Warming”࡛ࡩ ࡀහᐖ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉⴥ⩽ࡒࡔࡢῺᗐ୕᪴࡞㛭ࡊ࡙㸝ᙔࡢ୕᪴ലྡྷࢅぜࡎ࡙࠷࠷ ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡒ㸞⾠᫅ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡡࡲࢅ㍍ࡎࠉᆀ⾪㟻࡚ࡡῺᗐ୕᪴ࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡢ⣺ࡊ࡙࠷ ࠷㸝᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉNOAA ࡡ⾠᫅ࢸ࣭ࢰ࠽ࡻࡦẴ⌣࡞ࡻࡾࢸ࣭ࢰࡡ᪁࡞ㄏࡽ࠵ࡖࡒࡆ ࡛᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᮇ✇ࡡ㆗ㄵ 4 ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻ㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺ࡞ࡻࡾᙫ㡢ࢅ ᙁㄢࡊࠉNASA ࡞ࡻࡾࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺࡡᙫ㡢ࢅ༎ฦ࡞⩻៎ࡊ࡙ࡽᘤ࠷࡙షᠺࡈࡿࡒῺᗐ୕ 1 ࡆࡡ㒂ฦࡡオ㏑ࡢࠉWikipedia ࡚ࡡ Frederick Seitz ࡞㛭ࡌࡾㄕ᪺㸯http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Seitz 㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮ 21 㸞 ࠉ Leipzig Declaration ࡞㛭ࡌࡾㄕ᪺㸯http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leipzig_Declaration㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮ 21 㸞ࠉShelly㸝2005㸞ࠉMusser㸝2001㸞ࠉLambert㸝2004㸞࡞౪ᣈࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊFrederick Seitz ࡛ࢰࣁ ࢤఌ♣࡛ࡡ㛭౿࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉhttp://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Seitz_Tobacco_Crimes.html ࢅཤ↯ࠊ࠽ࠉᙴࡢࠉ㛣 ႖↦ࡡ࡞ࠉࢪ࣊ࢪࢹࡡ༱㝜ᛮࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡻ࠹ㄵᩝࡵ᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾࠊ 7 ᪴ࢸ࣭ࢰࡵ⣺ࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ㟸ᖏ࡞೩ࡖࡒࣝࣄ࣭ࣖ࡞ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ➠ᄿ࡞ࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡ࡡᐍ⩽ഁ࡚࠵ࡾ OISM ࡢࠉࡐࡡ OISM ࡂ㛭౿ࡌࡾ㞟ヽࡡ࣭࣌ ࣑࣭࣋ࢩ୕㸝http://www.accesstoenergy.com/view/ate/s41p31.htm㸞࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠔ㸝࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡ࡢ㸞 1 7 ༐ெࡡ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࠉῺᬦࡢࠉ⛁ᏕⓏ᰷ᣈరࡵ࠷ࢮ࡛ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡾࠕ࡛ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ཋᩝࡢࠉ“See over 17,000 scientists declare that global warming is a lie with no scientific basis whatsoever”㸞ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡ࡡᩝ❮ࡢࠉࡻࡂㄖࡳ࡛͆There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate͇࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾ࡞ࡌࡁ࠷ࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ࡢ ࠔ⌟ᅹࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪ࠉ࣒ࢰࣤࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡡᤴฝ࢜ࢰࢪࢹࣞࣆ࡞ ࡾࡻ࠹Ὼᗐ୕᪴࠽ࡻࡦᆀ⌣ࡡẴುࡡᓻቪࢅࡵࡒࡼࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ foreseeable future ࡞ ࠽࠷࡙ࠉࡐࡡࡻ࠹Ὼᗐ୕᪴ࡷẴುࡡᓻቪࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌ convincing ⛁ᏕⓏッᣈࡢ ࠷ࠕ࡛᭡࠷࡙࠵ࡾࡓࡄ࡚ࠉࠔῺᬦࡢࢮࠕ࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡻ࠹ࡢୌว᭡࠾ࡿ࡙࠷࠷ࠊࡆࡿ ࡢࠉOISM ࡢࠉ⮤ࡼࡡႿ㢢᭡ࡡහᐖࢅഅࡖ࡙ᐃఎࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅណࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ࡛ࡽ࠵࠻ࡍႿ 㢢᭡ࡢ⨣ྞ⩽ࢅ㞗ࡴࡷࡌ࠷ࡻ࠹ᩝ❮࡞ࡊ࡙࠽࠷࡙ࠉ⨣ྞ⩽㞗ࡱࡖࡒࡼᠺᐁ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠔῺ ᬦࡢࢮ࡚࠵ࡾッᣈࠕ࡛ࡊ࡙Ⴟ㢢᭡ࢅࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡛జࡒࡻ࠹ࡵࡡ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉFrederick Seitz ࡛ྜྷࡋࡂࢰࣁࢤࡡ㛣႖↦࡞ࡻࡾ ᗛ⿍ᐐࢅྫྷᏽࡊࠉࢠࣞࣞࣆ࢛࣭ࣜࣞ࢜࣍ࣤ㸝CFCsࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾࣆࣞࣤ࢝ࢪ㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࢛ࢯࣤᒒ◒ ቪࡷ⣰አ⥲࡞ࡻࡾ⓮⭭࢝ࣤࡡⓆ⏍ࡡྊ⬗ᛮ࡞ࡵ␏ࢅ၌࠻࡙࠷ࡒெ∸࡛ࡊ࡙᭯ྞ Fred Singer ᐍࡊࡒ͆Leipzig Declaration͇㸝ࣚࣈࢲࣃᐃゕ㸞࠵ࡾ2ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉ1995 ᖳ࡛ 1997 ᖳ࡞⾔ࢂࡿࡒῺᬦᑊ➿ࡷா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬᑊ⨣ྞ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ80 ெࡡ◂✪⩽࡛ 25 ெࡡẴ㇗ ሒኃ⨣ྞࡊࡒ࡛ࡈࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡵࠉࢸ࣏࣭ࣤࢠࡡࢷࣝࣄᑻ㸝DR1㸞Ḛᕗᅹపࡡ⨣ ྞ⩽ 33 ெࡡ㏛㊟ㄢᰕࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ࡆࡡࢸ࣏࣭ࣤࢠࡡࢷࣝࣄఌ♣โషࡊࡒ␊⤄ࡢࠉᮇࡡ NHK ࡚ᩐᖳ๑࡞ᨲ᫆ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸞ࠊࡐࡿ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ33 ெࡡ࠹ࡔ 4 ெ☔ヾ࡚ࡀࡍࠉ12 ெ⨣ྞ ࡊࡒࡆ࡛ࢅྫྷᏽࡊࠉరெ࠾ࡢࠉࠔᐃゕࠕ⮤మࢅ⪲࠷ࡒࡆ࡛࠾ࡖࡒࠊ⨣ྞࡊࡒெࡡ⫃ᴏࡢࠉ ༈⩽ࠉᰶ∸⌦Ꮥ⩽ࠉ᪳Ꮥ⩽࡚࠵ࡖࡒࠊ ࡆࡡࡻ࠹ெࠍࠔ᠔Ὤࠕࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 㸝ᢰᙔᇮ➱⩽㸯᪺㤮ኑᕖ㸞 2 Fred Singer ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉhttp://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Singer-Nightline.html ࡷ Wikipedia ࡚ࡡᙴࡡㄕ᪺㸯 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_SingerࠉLeipzig Declaration ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ http://www.sepp.org/policy%20declarations/leipzig.html ࡷ Wikipedia ࡚ࡡㄕ᪺㸯 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leipzig_Declaration ࢅࡐࡿࡑࡿཤ↯㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮ 21 㸞 8 2. Ὼᬦၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡌࡾ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐ሒ㐠 ㆗ㄵ 2. ࠔ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐࡚ࡢࠉ᭩㎾࡞ࡖ࡙ࠉெⅥⓏῺᬦ࡞ᑊࡌࡾᢀึࡡオฝࡾࡻ࠹࡞ ࡖࡒ㸝ౚ࠻ࡣࠉẎ᩺⪲ 05 ᖳ 11 ᭮ 29 㸞ࠕ 㸝ᵌ⏛ 2006, p.138㸞 ࠔ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐࡞ࡢᏬࡼࡄࡿࡣ ࡼ࠷ኬཋ์࠵ࡾࠊࡵࡔࢀࢆࠉࡐࡡୌࡗࡢࠔᐁࢅሒ㐠ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࠕࡓࠉࡵ࠹ୌࡗࡢࠔ␏ ࡾぜよ࠵ࡾ࡞ࡢ∞᪁ࡓࡄࢅሒ㐠ࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷ࡄ࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡓࠕ 㸝Ṃ⏛ 2007, p.117㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ௧ୖࡢࠉཬㄵ࡛࠷࠹ࡻࡽࡵࠉ⚶ࡒࡔ࠾ࡼ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐㛭౿⩽ࡡ᪁ࠍࡡ࠽㢢࠷࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ⡷ᅗ࡚ࡢ࠷࡞ࡊ࡙ࡵࠉᮇ࡚ࡵࠔሒ㐠࡞࠽ࡄࡾࣁࣚࣤࢪࠕࠔᑛᩐណぜࡡᑕ㔔ࠕࢅ ⌦⏜࡞ࠉࡊࡣࡊࡣῺᬦ᠔Ὤࡡណぜ᩺⪲࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉౚ࠻ࡣḚᕗ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉ⡷ᅗࡷᮇࡡ࣒ࢸ࡛Ẓ㍉ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ᠔Ⓩ㆗ㄵཱིࡽ ୕ࡅࡼࡿࡾᶭఌࡢᴗ❻࡞ᑛ࠷ࠊࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉⱝࣆࢻࣤࢨࣔࣜࢰ࣑ࢫ⣤ࡡオ⩽࡚⎌ሾ ฦ㔕ᢰᙔࡡ Fiona Harvey ࡢࠉࠔḚᕗࡡ࣒ࢸࣁࣚࣤࢪ࡞Ḗࡄ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ᠔Ὤࡡ ㆗ㄵࢅྜྷࡋࡻ࠹࡞ཱིࡽ୕ࡅ࡙ࡊࡱ࠹࡛ࠉ㸝ᐁ㝷ࡢࡐ࠹࡚ࡢ࠷ࡡ࡞㸞ᙴ➴࢜ࢸ࣐ࢴࢠࡡୠ ⏲࡚ࡵኬࡀເງࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛࠷࠹㛣㐢ࡖࡒ༰㇗ࢅㄖ⩽࡞࠻࡙ࡊࡱ࠹ࡆ࡛࡞ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼࡓࠕ࡛᪺☔࡞㏑࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Thacker 2006㸞ࠊ ࡵࡔࢀࢆࠉరࢅཱིࡽ୕ࡅࡾ࠾ࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢࡡࡻ࠹オࢅ᭡ࡂ࠾ࡢெࡡධࡂ⮤⏜࡚࠵ࡽࠉ ⚶ࡒࡔࡡណぜࢅᢪࡊࡗࡄࡾẴࡢẗ㢄࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ᠔ㄵ࣒ࢸཱི࡚ࡽ୕ࡅࡼࡿࡾ ࡡࡢࠉῺᬦၡ㢗࡞ᵕࠍெࠍኬࡀ㛭ᚨࢅᐞࡎ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࡡッᕞ࡛ࡵ⩻࠻ࡼࡿࠉࡐࡡណ ࡚ࡢḴ㎼ࡌࡀࡆ࡛ࡡ࠾ࡵࡊࡿ࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ࣒ࢸ㛭౿ࡡெࠍ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉ᠔Ὤࡡ㆗ㄵ ࢅ᩺⪲࡚⣺ࡌࡾ๑࡞ࠉ1㸞᠔ㄵࡡ୯㌗ࡷ᠔ㄵ⩽ࡡ⫴ᬊ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡵ࠹ᑛࡊຫᙁࡊ࡙ḟ ࡊ࠷ࠉ2㸞ᚪࡍࡊࡵ⌟ᅹࡡ⛁Ꮥ▩ㆉࢅࡻࡂ⾪ࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࡡ࡚ࠍࡡㄵᩝ(᭩࡚᩺࠵ࡖ࡙ ࡵ)ࡡ⤎ㄵࢅ㔔っࡊࡌࡁ࠷࡚ࡊ࠷ࠉࢅ࠽㢢࠷ࡌࡾࡡࡢỬࡊ࡙㐛ኬさị࡚ࡢ࠷࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ ౚ࠻ࡣࠉࠔῺᬦࡢ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷࠷ࠕࡷࠔῺᗐ୕᪴ࡡࢡࣚࣆ࡞ࡢᾇࡷ⏛⯃ࡡࢸ࣭ࢰථࡖ࡙࠷ ࠷ࠕ࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡻ࠹㢦ࡡ㆗ㄵࡢࠉᮇ✇࡚ࡵㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉIPCC ࡷ NASA ࡡ࣭࣑࣭࣌࣋ࢩ ࡞ࢠࢬࢪࡌࡿࡣࡌࡃ㛣㐢࠷ࡓ࡛ฦ࠾ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ᠔ㄵࡡኣࡂྜྷ⛸ࡡᮇࡷ⡷ᅗࡡ᠔Ὤࡡ࣌ ࣭࣑࣭࣋ࢩ࠾ࡼࡡུࡄࡽ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉ᰷ᣈࡷฝᫍࡵࡡ࡛ࢆ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡵᙴ ➴ࡡⴥ᭡ࡡᘤ⏕ᩝ⊡ࢅぜࡿࡣୌ┘▉↓࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡐࡵࡐࡵࠉኬ㒂ฦࡡ᠔ὬࡢࠉẴು⛁Ꮥࡷ ᆀ⌣⛁Ꮥࢅᑍ㛓࡛ࡌࡾ◂✪⩽࡚ࡢࡂࠉ㸝ᑛࡂ࡛ࡵḚ⡷࡚ࡢ㸞≁ᏽࡡฺ─ᅆమ࡛⤎ࡦࡗ࠷ࡒ ெࡒࡔ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ᠔Ὤࡡ୯࡞ࡢࠉᏕ⾙ヽ࡞࠽ࡄࡾᰕㄖโᗐࢅᢀึࡊࠉ᠔Ⓩහᐖࡡㄵᩝ᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࠷⌦ ⏜ࢅᏕఌࣆࢨࢫ࣑ࡡࡎ࠷࡞ࡌࡾெࡒࡔ࠷ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᐁ㝷࡞ᑍ㛓ⓏᏕఌ࡞ཤຊࡊ࡙ࠉㄵ ᩝࢅ┷㟻┘࡞Ꮥ⾙ヽᢖ✇ࡊࡻ࠹࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ᠔Ὤࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ᑛ࠷㸝ᮇ࡚ࡢୌெ࠾ெ㸞ࠊ ᢖ✇ㄵᩝᏕ⾙ヽ࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࠷⌦⏜ࡵࠉࡒࡓ༟࡞ㄵᩝࡡỀ‵࠷ࡒࡴ࡚࠵ࡽࠉᏕఌࣆࢨ ࢫ࣑࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡻ࠹ᢀึࡢ⿍ᐐዱ࡛⮤ಘ㐛ࡡ㈱∸௧አࡡర∸࡚ࡵ࠷ࠊ ᚋᶊ─ṒᏬࢅ┘Ⓩ࡛ࡊࡒᡋ␆Ⓩ᠔Ὤࡡ┷ࡡࢰ࣭ࢣࢴࢹࡵᑍ㛓ᐓࡷᏕఌ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊᙴ➴ࡡ 9 ┘ⓏࡢῺᬦᑊ➿ࡡᚪさᛮ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ♣ఌヾㆉࢅ࡚ࡀࡾࡓࡄᕵࡵࡡ࡞ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡡ࡚ࠉࡐࡿ ࢅᐁ⌟ࡌࡾࡒࡴࡡᡋ␆࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉ࡛࡞࠾ࡂࠔῺᬦၡ㢗ࡢࢆ࡛ࡂ☔ᐁᛮኬࡀ࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ ᾐ࠻࡞ࡂ࠷࣒࣭ࢩࢅୠ㛣ୌ⯙ࡡெࠍࡡ㢄ࡡ୯࡞᳔࠻ࡄࡻ࠹࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉṟᛍࡆ ࡛࡞ࠉ↋ណㆉࡡ࠹ࡔ࡞ࠉࡐࡡࡻ࠹ᚋᶊ─ṒᏬࢅ┘Ⓩ࡛ࡊࡒெࠍࡡ∞Ფࢅᢰ࠷࡚ࡊࡱࡖ࡙࠷ ࡾࢻ࣭ࣇ᠔Ὤࡡெࠍᮇ࡞ࡢᑛࡂ࠷ࠊ ⛁Ꮥ࡛♣ఌ࡛ࡡࢤ࣐ࣖࢼࢢ࣭ࢨࣘࣤ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࡡഁ࠾ࡼࡡຑງᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ ゕࢅಖࡒ࠷ࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉṟᛍࡼῺᬦၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉᴣࡊ࡙ᮇ࡚ࡢࠉ㛭㏻ฦ㔕ࡡᑍ㛓ᐓ ඖฦຑງࢅᡮࡖ࡙࠷ࡒ࡛ࡢᚪࡍࡊࡵゕ࠻࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉర࡛ゕࡖ࡙ࡵ࣒ࢸࡡᙫ㡢ງࡢ ⤧ኬ࡚࠵ࡾࠊῺᬦᑊ➿ࡡᚪさᛮቌࡌ୯ࠉࠔெ≗࡞ჱࡲࡗ࠷ࡒࠕࡡࢿࣛࡓࡄ࡚Ὼᬦ᠔ ㄕࢅཱིࡽ୕ࡅࡾࡆ࡛ࡓࡄࡢ㟸࡛ࡵࡷࡴ࡙ḟࡊ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡡ⚶ࡒࡔࡡวᐁ㢢࠷࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 㸝ᢰᙔᇮ➱⩽㸯᪺㤮ኑᕖ㸞 10 3. Ὼᬦၡ㢗ࡡ⛁ᏕⓏᇱ♇ 3.1. 㐛ཡ࠽ࡻࡦ⌟ᅹࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ ㆗ㄵ Jones et al.㸝2001㸞࡞ࡻࡾ 19 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࠾ࡼࡡẴῺࡡ᥆⛛ࡷࠉMann et al.㸝1998, 1999㸞࡞ࡻࡾཿ Ẵುᣞᵾࢅ⏕࠷ࡒ㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡẴῺࡡ᥆ᏽࢅ♟ࡌࢡࣚࣆࡢࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࠾ࡼࡡ㢟ⴥ Ὼᬦലྡྷࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡒࡊ࠾࡞ࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡࢡࣚࣆ࡞㛭ࢂࡾ⛁ᏕⓏ☔ᐁᛮࡢṟࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡ⮤↓㉫″ࡡንິࡡᐞࠉよ㔐࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡵ㆗ㄵࡡఴᆀࡢ࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆ࠹ ࡊࡒⅤࢅࡆ࡛ࡈࡼ࡞ཱིࡽ࠵ࡅࡒࡽࠉࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺ⌟㇗ࡡᙫ㡢ࢅ㐛ኬフ౮ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉ ࢡࣚࣆ࡞♟ြࡈࡿࡾῺᬦലྡྷࢅධࡂ↋っࡊ࡙ࡻ࠷࠾ࡡࡻ࠹ᘿࢅ⧖ࡽᗀࡅࡾ᠔ㄵࢅ┘ ࡞ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠵ࡾࠊᮇ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ᠔ㄵࡡᐁㄏヾࡷ⾔ࡀ㐛ࡁࡒⅤࢅᣞᦤࡊࠉふῼࢸ࣭ ࢰ࡞ᑊࡌࡾᢀึ࡛ಘ㢏ࡡධࣁࣚࣤࢪࢅಕࡖࡒឺᗐᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅㄕࡂࠊ ㆗ㄵ 3. ࡐࡵࡐࡵῺᬦ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾࠹࠾ࡢࢂ࠾ࡼ࠷ࠊࡏࡼࡣࠉῺᗐࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ ࠽࠾ࡊ࠷ࠊ ッᣈ 1. ᆀ⌣⾪㟻ࡡ 7 ࢅ༥ࡴࡾᾇ୕ࡡẴುንࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࡢࡂࠉ㒌ᕰࡡᙫ㡢ࡵ༎ฦ࡞⩻៎ ࡈࡿ࡙࠷࠷㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.76㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍࠉᾇ୕ࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡡㄏよ࡚࠵ࡾࠊධ⌣ᖲᆍᆀ୕ẴῺ࡛ࡣ ࡿࡾᩐೋࢅゝ⟤ࡌࡾ࡞ࡢࠉࡨࡗ࠹ࠉ㝛୕࡚ふῼࡈࡿࡒẴῺࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࡛ࠉ⯢࡚ふῼࡈࡿࡒᾇ 㟻ỀῺࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࢂࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡡ᪁Ἢࡢࠉ㔕Ἁ㸝2007㸞よㄕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ཤ↯ࡊ࡙ࡊ ࠷ࠊౚ࠻ࡣ IPCC ➠ 3 ḗሒ࿈᭡࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿࡒ㐛ཡ 25 ᖳ㛣ࡡῺᗐንࡡᅒ㸝ᅒ 1㸞ࡢࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹ ࡞㝛୕ẴῺ࡛ᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࢅ⤄ࡲྙࢂࡎ࡙ᚋࡼࡿࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ᅒ 1 ධ⌣ⓏῺᬦലྡྷࢅ♟ࡌふῼ⤎ᯕ 㸝http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm㸞 11 NASA ࡡࢩ࣭࣑࢘ࢪ࣬ࣀࣤࢬࣤࡒࡔⓆ⾪ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࢡࣚࣆ 㸝http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ 㸞 ࡢࠉ㝛୕ࡓࡄࡡ㞗ゝೋࡵ࠵ࡾࠉᾇ୕ࡓࡄࡡࡵࡡࠉᾇ࡛㝛ࡡ୦᪁ࢅྱࡴࡒࡵࡡࡵ࠵ࡾ 㸝࠷ࡍࡿ ࡵ୕᪴ലྡྷࡢྜྷࡋ࡚࠵ࡾ㸞ࠊ 㝛୕ࡡふῼⅤࡡ࠹ࡔ࡞ࡢࠉ㒌ᕰࡡࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺຝᯕࠉふῼሔᡜࡡ࣭ࣞ࢜ࣜ⎌ሾࡡ ንࡡᙫ㡢ኬࡀ࠷࡛ࡆࢀࡵ࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ☔࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉධ⌣ᖲᆍᆀ୕ẴῺࢅゝ⟤ࡊ ࡙࠷ࡾ◂✪ࢡ࣭ࣜࣈ࡚ࡢࠉ࣭ࣞ࢜ࣜᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡒふῼೋࢅ㝎አ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢḿࡌࡾຑງࢅࡐ ࡿࡑࡿ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉParker㸝2004㸞ࡢࠉࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺຝᯕࡢ㢴ࡡᙁ࠷እ࡞ࡢᘽ࠷ ࡞ࡵ࠾࠾ࢂࡼࡍࠉῺᗐ୕᪴㔖ࡢ㢴ࡡᙁ࠷እ࡛㢴ࡡᘽ࠷እ࡛ࡡ㛣࡞ኬࡀ㐢࠷࠷ࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉ Ὼᗐ୕᪴ࡡࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺࡡᙫ㡢ࡢᑚࡈ࠷࡛フ౮ࡊࡒࠊ ࡛ࡆࢀ࡚ࠉධᆀ⌣ࡡῺᬦࡡᣞᵾࡢධ⌣ᖲᆍᆀ୕ẴῺࡓࡄ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊᆀ୕࠾ࡼ㧏ࡈ⣑ᩐ km ࡱ࡚ࡡᑊὮᅥୖᒒࡡẴῺ࡞ࡵ㸝ࠔ㆗ㄵ 4ࠕࡡ㡧ཤ↯㸞 ࠉᾇࡡࡈ 3km ࡱ࡚ࡡ⇍㔖࡞ࡵ㸝Levitus et al. 2005㸞ࠉ୕᪴ലྡྷぜࡼࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿࡼ࡞ࣃ࣭ࢹࣚࣤࢺࡡ࣭ࣞ࢜ࣜᙫ㡢࡞ࡻ ࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠷ࡆ࡛ࡢ᪺ࡼ࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ッᣈ 2. ẴῺୖࡖ࡙࠷ࡾሔᡜࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ༞ᴗᅥࡡῺᗐࡢ 50 ᖳ㛣ࡍࡖ࡛ᶋࡣ࠷࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005㸰ῳ㎰ 2006㸰Ṃ⏛ 2007㸞 ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ୠ⏲ࢅ᥀ࡎࡣẴῺୖࡾലྡྷࡡሔᡜࡵ࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡐࡿࡼࡢᑻᡜⓏ⮤↓ንິ࡞ࡻࡾࡵ ࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡿࡼࢅධ࡙㛣✭㛣Ⓩ࡞ᖲᆍࡊ࡙ᚋࡼࡿࡾධమⓏലྡྷ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉ20 ୠ⣎ࡡᒜᒾể ἑࡡኬぞᶅᚃ㏝ࡷῺᬦࡢ☔ᐁふῼᐁ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ྫྷᏽࡊࡻ࠹࠷ࠊ ࡱࡒࠉ᭩᩺ࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࡚ࡢ௧ୖࡡࡻ࠹ࡆ࡛᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Knutson et al. 2006㸞 1.㐛ཡ 100 ᖳ㛣࡚ᐨ෫ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾᆀⅤࡢ㸝༎ฦࢸ࣭ࢰᏋᅹࡌࡾᆀⅤࡡ㸞ᩐ㸚ᮅ 2.≁࡞ᐨ෫ലྡྷ㢟ⴥࡡࡢ⡷ᅗ༞᮶㒂࡛ࢡ࣭ࣛࣤࣚࣤࢺࡡ༞᮶ἀ 3.ࡊ࠾ࡊ࣓ࢸࣜࡡ㛏ንິ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ⮤↓ንິ࡚᳠ᏽࡌࡾ࡛ࠉࡆࡡ୦ᆀᇡࡡᐨ෫ࢹࣝࣤࢺࡢ ᭯ណ࡚࠷ 4. 㛏ንິ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ⮤↓ንິࢅ⏕࠷ࡒ᳠ᏽ࡞ࡻࡽࠉ᭯ណࢹࣝࣤࢺ࡛ヾࡴࡼࡿࡾᆀⅤࡢ ࡌ࡙Ὼᬦ ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ༞ᴗᅥࡡẴῺࡢ୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࡡࡢࠉࡳࡊࢀࠔ༞ᴗᅥࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡢࡡᆀᇡࡻࡽ㐔 ࡿࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᑍ㛓ᐓࡡῼ࡛ᩒྙⓏ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ༞ᴗࡡ࿔ࡽࡡᾇᇡ࡚ᒒ࡛ࡡᾇỀࡡΊྙኬࡀ࠷ ࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉୌ㒂ࡡᆀᇡࡡ⌟㇗㸝ౚ㸯ẴῺୖࡷ㜾㞯㔖ࡡቌ ኬ㸞ࢅ࡛ࡽ࠵ࡅ࡙ᆀ⌣ධమ࡚㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾലྡྷࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾㄵἪࡢࠉ㟸ᖏ࡞࣐ࢪ࣭ࣛࢸࣤࢡࡵ ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 12 ㆗ㄵ 4. ⾠᫅࡞ࡻࡾふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡚ࡢῺᗐ୕᪴ぜࡼࡿ࠷㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.92㸞ࠊẴ㇗⾠᫅ NOAA ࡡゝῼჹࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡻࡾ༞༖⌣ࡡẴῺࡢࠉ25 ᖳ㛣ንࢂࡖ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ⌟㇗࠾ࡖ ࡒࡼ㏣࡞᚜࠾࡞ୖࡽẴ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.89㸰ờ⏛ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡆࡆ࡚࠷࠹⾠᫅࡞ࡻࡾẴῺࡢࠉᑊὮᅥୖᒒࠉࡗࡱࡽ㧏ࡈ⣑ 2 km ࢅ୯ᚨ࡛ࡊ࡙ᩐ km ࡡཉࡈࢅ ࡵࡖࡒᒒࡡᖲᆍẴῺ࡚࠵ࡾࠊᆀ୕ẴῺ㸝ཋ์࡛ࡊ࡙ᆀ㟻࣬ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼ㧏ࡈ 2m ࡚ࡡẴῺ㸞࡛ྜྷࡋ ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ ᑊὮᅥୖᒒẴῺࡢẴ⌣࡚ࡵふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ2000 ᖳࡇࢀ࡞ᚋࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡒࢸ࣭ࢰ࡚ ࡢᑊὮᅥୖᒒẴῺ࡞ࡢࡢࡖࡀࡽࡊࡒ୕᪴ലྡྷ࠾ࡖࡒࠊࡐࡿࡢᆀ୕ẴῺ࡞୕᪴ലྡྷ࠵ࡾࡆ ࡛࡛ㄵ⌦Ⓩ࡞□┢ࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠉẴು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾῼゝ⟤࡛ࡢࡂ࠷ࡔࡖ࡙࠷ࡒࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ᭩㎾ࡡ◂✪㸝Mears 2005㸰Sherwood et al., 2005㸞࡚ࠉ⾠᫅ふῼࠉẴ⌣ふῼࡐࡿࡑࡿ ࡡふῼᶭჹࡡㄏᕣ࠽ࡻࡦࡐࡡḿᡥ㡨ࢅྨࡊ࡙ゝ⟤ࡊ࠽ࡊࡒ⤎ᯕ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉᑊὮᅥୖᒒẴ Ὼ࡞ࡵ୕᪴ലྡྷぜࡼࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡚࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾῼ࡛ࡡ□┢ࡢࡂࡖࡒ㸝Santer 2005; Hogan 2005㸞 ࠊ ࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾῼふῼࢸ࣭ࢰฌ⌦ࢅゖḿࡌࡾࡀࡖ࠾ࡄࢅࡵࡒࡼࡊࡒࢂࡄ࡚࠵ࡾࠊẴು࣓ࢸ ࣜ㛜Ⓠࡡ㐛⛤࡚ࡢふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࢅཤ↯ࡊ࡙ࢲ࣭ࣖࢼࣤࢡ㸝ㄢᩒ㸞ࢅ⾔࠷ࡢࡌࡾࠉࡵࡊࡐࡿ ↋ฦื࡞⤎ᯕࡡᩐೋࢅふῼೋ࡞ྙࢂࡎࡾࡻ࠹ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡖࡒࡼ࣓ࢸࣜࡢࡐࡡࡻ࠹ㄕᚋງࢅ ࡵࡒ࠾ࡖࡒࡓࢀ࠹ࠊ ㆗ㄵ 5. ࣌ࢴࢢ࣭࣬ࢪࢷࢴࢠㄵண࡚ࠉMann ࡼࡢ⮤ฦࡒࡔࡡᚗඔ᥆ᏽゝ⟤⤎ᯕࡡゖḿオࢅฝ ࡊࡒ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.94㸞 ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࣌ࢴࢢ࣭࣬ࢪࢷࢴࢠㄵண࡛ࡢࠉ㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳࡡ⠂ᅑ࡚ 20 ୠ⣎࡞᛬⃥Ὼᬦ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ ࠾ྫྷ࠾࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡡㄵண࡚࠵ࡽࠉMann et al. 㸝1998, 1999㸞࡞ࡻࡽ᥆ᏽࡈࡿࡒ༖⌣ᖲᆍẴῺࡡᚗ ඔ᭜⥲ࡡᙟ࣌ࢴࢢ࣭࣬ࢪࢷࢴࢠࡡࡻ࠹࡞ぜ࠻ࡾࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࡆࡡྞ๑ࡗ࠷ࡒࠊᙴࡼࡡᚗඔ᥆ ᏽ᭜⥲ࡢࡐࡡ⾪ౚ࡛ࡊ࡙ IPCC㸝2001㸞࡞ࡵ᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ20 ୠ⣎㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳ㛣࡚㝷❟ ࡖ࡙Ὼᬦ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌ㔔さㄵᣈ࡛ࡈࡿࡒࠊࡐࡡᚃࠉMann ࡼࡢ 1998 ᖳࡡㄵᩝ࡞ᑊࡌࡾゖ ḿオ㸝Mann et al. 2004㸞ࢅ Nature ヽ࡞ᥞฝࡊࡒࠉࡆࡿࡢฺ⏕ྊ⬗࡚࠵ࡖࡒࢸ࣭ࢰࡡ࠹ࡔ ࡿࢅᐁ㝷࡞⏕ࡊࡒ࠾ࡡオ㏑࡞㛣㐢࠷࠵ࡖࡒ࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉㄵᩝࡡ⤎ᯕ࡞ࡢን᭞࠷ ࡛᪺ゕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉᙴࡼ⮤㌗㐛ཡࡡㄵᩝࡡ⤎ㄵࡡㄏࡽࢅヾࡴࡒࡵࡡ࡚ࡢỬࡊ࡙࠷ࠊ ࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡡࠔ᜴ࡊࡱࡁࡿࡡᤖ࡙ࡏࡽࡨࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᙟᐖࡢᐁ࡞ཬࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊMann ࡼࡡᚗඔ᥆ᏽ࡞㛭ࡌࡾㄵணࡢࡆࡡ࡞ࡵ࠷ࡂࡗ࠾࠵ࡽࠉቌ⏛㸝2005㸞ᩒ⌦ࢅモࡲ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐ ࡵࡐࡵࠉ㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳ㛣ࡡẴῺࡡᚗඔ᥆ᏽࡢࡡ◂✪ࢡ࣭ࣜࣈ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵ⾔ࢂࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉMann ࡼࡡࡣ࠾ࡽ࡞Ἰ┘ࡌࡾࡡࡢᘋスⓏឺᗐ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊࡐࡿࡼࡡ◂✪ࡵྱࡴ࡙⥪ྙࡊ࡙ࡲࡾ࡛ 㸝National Research Council 2006㸞ࠉ1000 ᖳ㛣ࡡ๑༖ࡡẴುᚗඔࡡࡣࡼࡗࡀࡢࡱࡓኬࡀ࠷ࠉ᭩ ㎾ 400 ᖳࡡ⠂ᅑ࡚ 20 ୠ⣎㝷❟ࡖ࡙Ὼᬦ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ☔࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 13 ㆗ㄵ 6. ெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡡኬẴ୯⃨ᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉᖲ ᆍẴῺࡢ༟ㄢ࡞୕᪴ലྡྷࢅ♟ࡊࠉࡐࡡ୕᪴⋙ࡢ㎾ᖳ࡞㎾ࡘࡂኬࡀࡂࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊᐁ㝷࡞ふ ῼࡈࡿࡒᖲᆍẴῺࡡንິࡢࡆࡿ࡛ࡢ␏ࡖࡒലྡྷࢅぜࡎ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ๑ୠ⏲ኬᡋᚃࡡኬẴ ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴⋙ኬࡀࡂࡖࡒ࡞ࠉ㏣࡞Ὼലྡྷࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ 㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᆀ⌣ࡡᖲᆍẴῺࡢ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞ぜྙࡖࡒᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡞㐡ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢࡂࠉẴῺን ࡞ࡢᵕࠍᅄᏄ࠵ࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉኯ㝟Ὡິࡷℾᒜ࡛࠷ࡖࡒ⮤↓㉫″ᅄᏄࡵ࠵ࡽࠉ࣒ࢰࣤࡷࣆ ࣞࣤࡡ㓗⅛⣪௧አࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡵெⅥὩິ࡞ࡻࡽቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡿࡼ࡛㓗⅛ ⣪࡛ྙࢂࡈࡖ࡙20ୠ⣎ࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡡཋᅄ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝㓗⅛⣪ࡓࡄཋᅄ࡛ࡢࠉெⅥⓏ ᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅ࡛ࡾ◂✪⩽ࡡㄙࡵゕࡖ࡙࠷࠷㸞ࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉẴῺ࡛㓗⅛⣪ ⃨ᗐࡧࡖࡒࡽᑊᚺࡊ࠷ࡡࡢᚪࡍࡊࡵᛦ㆗ࡆ࡛࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ๑ୠ⏲ኬᡋᚃࡡኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗 ⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴⋙ኬࡀࡂࡖࡒࡢࠉℾᒜᄂℾࡡ⮤↓さᅄ㸝Wigley et al. 1997㸞࡛ ெⅥ㉫″࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡡ෫༴ຝᯕ㸝Tett et al. 2002; Nagashima et al. 2006㸞Ὼᬦࢅᡬࡔᾐࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡒ࡛࠷࠹ㄕ᭯ງࡓࠉẴುࡡහ㒂ንິ࡛࠷࠹ㄕࡵ࠵ࡾ㸝Andronova and Schlesinger, 2000; Knight et al. 2005㸞ࠊ ࡆࡡࡻ࠹㐛ཡࡡ㇗ࡢࠉẴು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ 20 ୠ⣎ࡡ්⌟ᐁ㥺࡞ࡻࡖ࡙࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐ♟ࡌࡆ࡛ ࡚ࡀࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ௫࡞㓗⅛⣪ࡷ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡡெⅥ㉫″∸㈻ࡡቌຊ↋࠷࡛࠷࠹᮪௲ ࡚ࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤࢅ⾔࠹࡛ࠉ㸝⮤↓ࡡንິさᅄ࡛Ẵುࡡහ㒂ንິࡓࡄ࡚ࡢ㸞20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡẴ Ὼ୕᪴ࡡኬࡀࡈࡢ්⌟࡚ࡀ࠷㸝ᅒ 2㸞 ࠊࡆࡿࡼࡢࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࠔཋ ᅄࠕ࡚Ὼᗐࠔ⤎ᯕࠕ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅᙁࡂ♟ြࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ᅒ 2. Ẵು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ⤎ᯕ ฝᡜ㸯Shiogama et al.㸝2006㸞ࢅᨭን 14 ࠽ࠉẴುንິࢅῼࡌࡾẴು࣓ࢸࣜࡢࠉ⤊ῥ࣓ࢸ࡛ࣜྜྷᵕ࡞ࠉࡱࡍ㐛ཡ࠽ࡻࡦ⌟ᅹࡡ㇗ 㸝ౚ㸯ᵕࠍさᅄ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐን㸞ࢅᚃⓏ࡞࠹ࡱࡂ්⌟࡚ࡀࡾ࠾࠹࠾࡞ࡻࡖ࡙᳠ッࡈࡿࡾࠊ ࡱࡒࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹᳠ッࢅ⤊࡙῀ụࡈࡿ࡙ࡀࡒ᭩᩺ࡡẴು࣓ࢸࣜࡢࠉౚ࠻ࡣῺᗐ୕᪴ࡡᆀᇡᕣ ࡵ࠾ࡽḿ☔࡞්⌟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ᐁࡢࠉ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ㛏࠷㛣ࠉ࣓ࢸࣜࡌࡾᆀ⌣୕✭ࡡῺᗐ୕࡛᪴Ẵ㇗⾠᫅࠽ࡻࡦẴ⌣ ࡞ࡻࡾࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐふῼࡡࡍࡿၡ㢗࡛ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ᠔ὬࡡይࡡᨯᦹࡡⓏ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ ࡒࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜ࡚ࡢࠉ⾠᫅ࢸ࣭ࢰࡡ᪁࡞㸝ḿࡡ㸞ㄏࡽ࠵ࡖࡒࡆ࡛᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ᮇ✇ࡡ㆗ㄵ 4 ࢅཤ↯㸞ࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ๑࡞ࡵ㏑ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ⤎ᯕⓏ࡞࣓ࢸࣜࡡῼ ⌟ᐁࡡふῼࡡㄏࡽࢅᣞᦤࡊࡒࡆ࡛࡞ࡽࠉࡆࡡࡢ࣓ࢸࣜࡡ⤎ᯕࢅ⌟ᐁࡡᩐᏊ࡞㎾ࡘࡄࡾࡻ ࠹ࢲ࣭ࣖࢼࣤࢡ㸝ㄢᩒ㸞↋ฦื࡞ࡢࡈࡿ࡙ࡢ࠷࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡡ㛣Ⓩッ᪺࡞ࡵࡖ࡙ ࠷ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉẴುᏕ⩽ࡢࠉẴು࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷࡙ 1991 ᖳ࡞㉫ࡀࡒࣆࣛࣅࣤࡡࣅࢻࢵ࣍ℾᒜ ᄂℾᚃࡡẴῺୖࢅᄂℾ├ᚃ࡞ῼࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡵᠺຉࡊࡒࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ㝀ࡼࡿࡒᩐࡡ㇗ࡡࡲ ࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉ㐛ཡࡓࡄ࡚ࡂᑑᮮῼ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡵ࣓ࢸࣜࡢୌᏽࡡ᳠ッࢅུࡄ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡒࡓࡊࠉ⌟Ⅴ࡚࣓ࢸࣜࡡ᳠ッࠔ༎ฦࠕ࡚࠵ࡾ࠾ࡢㄙ࡞ࡵึ࡚᩷ࡀ࠷ࠊᚃࡵ࣓ࢸ࡛ࣜ ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡡୌ⮬࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉ࣓ࢸࣜࢅᨭⰃࡌࡾ࠾ࠉふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡡよ㔐ࢅ්᳠ゞࡌࡾ࠾࡛࠷࠹ ႜࡲ᩷࡞⤾ࡂࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠉࡐࡿࡢ┷ࡖᙔࠔ⛁Ꮥࠕࡡႜࡲ࡞ࡼ࠷ࠊ㔔さⅤࡢࠉୠ ⏲୯࡚≺❟࡞㛜Ⓠࡈࡿࡒኣࡂࡡ࣓ࢸࣜࡆࡡࡻ࠹᩷ࡡ᳠ッࢅུࡄ⤾ࡄ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ⌟Ⅴ࡚ࡐ ࡡධ࡙ᑑᮮࡡῺᬦലྡྷࢅῼࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ㆗ㄵ 7. ᭩㎾ࡡῺᬦࡢ࡞ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ッᣈ 1. 㐛ཡ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິࡡࣝ࣊ࣜࢅ♟ࡌ㯦Ⅴᩐ࡛Ὼᗐ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿ふࡼࡿࡾ㸝ờ⏛ 2006㸰㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ☔࠾࡞㐛ཡࡡẴುንິ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິኬࡀᙫ㡢ࢅ࠻࡙࠷ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࠉெⅥⓏᤴ ฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࡵࠉ㐛ཡ࡞࠽ࡄࡾኯ㝟Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢ࢅྫྷᏽࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷࠷ࠊᅒ 3 ࡢ㐛ཡࡡኯ 㝟ᨲᑏ㔖ࡡ⤊ᖳንࢅ♟ࡌࠉ㔔さ࣎ࣤࢹࡢࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟ὩິὩⓆࡌ ࡾലྡྷࡢぜࡼࡿࡍࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡ᛬⃥Ὼᬦࡢኯ㝟Ὡິ࡚ࡢㄕ᪺࡚ࡀ࠷ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾ 㸝Solanki and Krivova 2003; Foukal et al. 2006㸞ࠊࡆࡡࡆ࡛ࡢẴು࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷ࡒࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘ ࡚ࣤࡵ♟ြࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝๑ฝࡡᅒ 2㸞ࠊ࠽ࠉ᭩㎾࡚ࡢ⾠᫅ふῼ௧๑ࡡኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖⤊ᖳንࡡ᥆ ᏽ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉ11 ᖳ࿔ࡻࡽࡵ㛏ࡡንࡢ㐛ኬフ౮࡚࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠹⩻࠻ᙁࡱࡖ࡙࠽ࡽ㸝Lean et al. 2002; Wang et al. 2005㸞ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢኯ㝟ὩິẴು࡞ཀྵࡌᙫ㡢ࡢࡈࡼ࡞ᑚࡈ࠷ྊ⬗ᛮ࠵ࡾࠊ 15 ᅒ 3 ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡኬࡀࡈࡡ᥆⛛ ฝᡜ㸯 CLIVAR/PAGES Newsletter Vol.13, No.3, p.14 Ἰ㸯୕ࡡ᪁ࡡᅒࡢࠉFröhlich and Lean㸝2004㸞࡞ࡻࡾኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖ࡡふῼ⤎ᯕࢅ♟ࡌࠊୖࡡ᪁ࡡᅒ࡚ࡢࠉỀ Ⰵࡡ㝔ᙫ㒂Lean㸝2000㸞࡞ࡻࡖ්࡙ᵋ⠇ࡈࡿࡒ㐛ཡࡡኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖ࡡን࡚࠵ࡽࠉ11ᖳࡡ⛛ິᖲᆍࢅ♟ࡊ ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡵ࠹ୌࡗࡡࣅࣤࢠⰅࡡᢙࡿ⥲ࢡࣚࣆࡢࠉWang et al.㸝2005㸞࡞ࡻࡾࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ⤎ᯕ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡆࡿࡼ࠾ࡼࠉ20ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟ὩິὩⓆࡌࡾലྡྷぜࡼࡿ࠷ࡆ࡛ฦ࠾ࡾࠊ ッᣈ 2. Ꮻᏼ⥲ࡡ㔖࡛Ὼᗐ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿ふࡼࡿࡾ㸝⸠ 2003㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 Ꮻᏼ⥲㞴ࡡᙟᠺ࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ࠽ࡻࡊࠉࡐࡿ 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡẴῺࡡ୕᪴࡞ࡗࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ ࠷࠹⌦ㄵࡢࠉࡊࡣࡊࡣெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅᢀึࡌࡾᮞᩩ࡛ࡊ࡙⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾࠊࡊ࠾ ࡊࠉᏫᏼ⥲࡛㞴ࡡᙟᠺ࡛ࡡᅄᯕ㛭౿࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ1㸞⌦ㄵⓏッ᪺༎ฦ࡚࠵ࡾࠉ2㸞Ꮻᏼ⥲ ࡡ㔖࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉ 㸝㞴ࡡᙟᠺ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐ୕᪴ࢅㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡡ࡞ᚪさ㸞㛏Ⓩലྡྷぜࡼࡿ࠷ࠉ3㸞 ࡆࡡㄕࡡᥞ၌⩽࡚࠵ࡾㄵᩝࡡゝ⟤⮤మ࡞ၡ㢗࠵ࡾࠉᣞᦤࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Damon and Laut 16 2004㸞 ࠊࡱࡒࠉ1㸞Ꮻᏼ⥲࡛┞㛭㧏࠷࡛ࡈࡿࡾୖᒒ㞴㔖ࡢ⾠᫅ࡡ㉝አࣁࣤࢺࡡࡲ࠾ࡼịࡴࡒࡵ ࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡵࡐࡵ㉝አࡡࡲ࠾ࡼịࡴࡒୖᒒ㞴㔖ࡢ⌟ᐁࡡ㞴㔖ࡡࡻ࠷ᣞᵾ࡚࠷ࠉ2㸞ྊっ㸠 ㉝አ࠾ࡼịࡴࡒୖᒒ㞴㔖㸝⌟ᐁ࡛ࡡᑊᚺࡻ࠷㸞࡛Ꮻᏼ⥲࡛ࡡ┞㛭ࡢᝇ࠷ࠉ3㸞㉝አࡡࡲ࠾ࡼ ịࡴࡒୖᒒ㞴㔖࡛Ꮻᏼ⥲ࡡ┞㛭ࡵࢸ࣭ࢰࢅ 1994 ᖳ௧㜾࡞ᘇ㛏ࡌࡾ࡛┞㛭ᝇࡂࡾࠉ ᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ1994 ᖳ௧㜾ࡡ⾠᫅ࢸ࣭ࢰฌ⌦࡞ၡ㢗࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠹ᣞᦤࡵࡈࡿ ࡒࠉࡐࡡྊ⬗ᛮ࠷ࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌ◂✪⤎ᯕࡵⓆ⾪ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Sun and Bradley 2004㸞 ࠊࡊࡒ ࡖ࡙ࠉ◂✪⩽ࡡ㛣࡚ࡢࠉᏫᏼ⥲ࡡ㔖࡛Ὼᗐ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿ࡢಘ㢏ᛮࡐࡿ㧏ࡂ࠷ୌࡗࡡ ௫ㄕ࡞࡛ࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ3ࠊ ㆗ㄵ 8. 20 ୠ⣎ࡡ㛣࡞ࠉࢡ࣭ࣞࣁࣜ࣬ࢸ࣐ࣤࢡ㸝ᆀ⌣ᬧ㸞࡛ࡣࡿࡾ⌟㇗㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡆࡿࡢᆀ୕࡞㐡ࡌࡾኯ㝟ᨲᑏࡡ΅ᑛ࡚࠵ࡽࠉཋᅄࡢ◪㓗࢙࣭ࣞࢯ࡛ࣜ⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡ◪ 㓗࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡞ࡻࡾῺᬦࡻࡽࡵኬࡀᐨ෫ࢅࡵࡒࡼࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ ࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉࡐࡿ࡞ࡵ࠾࠾ࢂࡼࡍẴῺ୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡼࡣࠉῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ௧አ࡞ࡐ ࡿࡻࡽࡵኬࡀῺᬦࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌさᅄ഼࠷࡙࠷ࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㸝⸠ 2005㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡚ᑏ΅ᑛലྡྷ࡞࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠹ふῼᐁ࠾ࡼẴῺୖࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙ ࠷ࡾࢡ࣭ࣞࣁࣜ࣬ࢸ࣐ࣤࢡ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ1㸞ふῼࡈࡿࡒᑏࡡ΅ᑛࡢࠉධ⌣Ⓩ⌟㇗࡚ࡢ ࡂࠉᑻᆀⓏࡱࡒࡢᆀᇡⓏ⌟㇗࡚࠵ࡾ㸝Alpert et al. 2005㸞 ࠉ2㸞 ᑏࡡふῼೋࡢ 1985 ᖳ㡥ࢅሾ ࡞΅ᑛലྡྷ࠾ࡼቌຊലྡྷ࡞㌹ࡋ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ㐅ᅗ࡚ኬẴỗ∸㈻ࡡᤴฝぞโጙࡱࡖࡒ࡛ྙ ⮬ࡌࡾ㸝Wild et al. 2005㸞ࠉࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕฝ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡱ࡚㆗ㄵࡈࡿ࡙ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜ ࡡຝᯕ࡚࡛ࢆㄕ᪺࡚ࡀࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊ࠽ࠉ㎾ᖳࡡῺᬦࡡ㆗ㄵࡷᐁ㝷ࡡ࣓ࢸࣜゝ⟤࡚ ࡢࠉ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡷᑊὮᅥ࢛ࢯࣤࡡᙫ㡢ࡢࠉ㓗⅛⣪࡛୩ࢆ࡚ࡐࡡຝᯕࡌ࡚࡞ᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡞⩻៎ ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡡኬࡀࡈࡵࠉ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾῺᬦࢅᡬࡔᾐࡌࡻ࠹ࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࡆ࡛᪺ ࡼ࠾࡞ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ㆗ㄵ 9. ኬẴỗῺᬦࡡཋᅄ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾྊ⬗ᛮ࠵ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ኬẴỗ∸㈻࡚࠵ࡾ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡡẴುᙫ㡢ࡢ⛸㢦࡞ࡻࡖ࡙␏ࡾࠊ◪㓗ᾦࡡ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ ࣜࡢࠉࡐࡿ⮤㌗ኯ㝟කࢅᩋ࣬ཬᑏࡌࡾࡓࡄ࡚ࡂࠉ㞴ฆ⤎ᰶ࡛ࡖ࡙㞴ࡡࣜ࣊ࢺࡷᑋ ࢅንࡈࡎࠉᆀ୕ẴῺࢅୖࡅࡾຝᯕࢅᣚࡗࠊୌ᪁ࠉ↬ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ኯ㝟කࢅࡻࡂྺࡌࡾ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ 3 ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉレ⣵᭩᩺ࡡ⥪ㄕ࡛ࡊ࡙௧ୖࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻࠊThe Influence of Solar Changes on the Earth's Climate. L.J. Gray, J.D. Haigh, R.G. Harrison. Hadley Centre Technical Note 62, January 2005. 㸝www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/HCTN/index.html㸞ࠊ࠽ࠉSolanki et al.㸝2004㸞ࡡㄵᩝ࡞ ᑊࡊࠉ᭩㎾ࡡኯ㝟Ὡິࡢ࡛ࡂ࡞␏ᖏ࡚ࣝ࣊ࣜࡢ࠷࡛࠷࠹ཬㄵฝࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Muscheler et al. 2005㸞 ࠊ ࡒࡓࡊࠉኯ㝟Ὡິᆀ⌣Ὼᬦࡡささᅄ࡚ࡢ࠷࡛࠷࠹Ⅴ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢྜྷࡋぜよ㏑ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ 17 ࣜࡢࠉࡐࡡᏋᅹࡌࡾ࡛ࡆࢀࡡ✭Ẵࢅᬦࡴࠉሔྙ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡢᆀ୕ẴῺࢅ㧏ࡴࡾྊ⬗ᛮ࠵ࡾࠊࡱ ࡒࠉ㞯ể㟻࡞╌ࡊ࡙ᆀ⾪㟻ࣜ࣊ࢺࢅንࡈࡎࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽࠉᆀ୕㎾ࡡኬẴࢅᬦࡴࡾ ຝᯕࡵᣚࡗࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᆀ୕ẴῺࢅ㧏ࡴࡾࡆࡿࡼࡡຝᯕࡢࠉ◪㓗ᾦࡡ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ෫ ༴ຝᯕ࡛Ẓ࡙ᩐฦࡡୌ⛤ᗐ࡚࠵ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Hansen et al. 2005b㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ ࣜ㔔さࡓ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙ࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡡẴమᠺฦ㔔さ࡚࠷ࢂࡄ࡚ࡢࡂࠉ୦᪁ࡡຝᯕ ࡢභᏋࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊẴು࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷ࡒࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽ࡄࡾᆀ୕Ẵ Ὼࡡ⤊ᖳንࡢࠉ➠ 1 ࡞㓗⅛⣪ࡡẴమᠺฦࠉ➠ 2 ࡞㸝ኬẴỗ࡞ࡻࡾ㸞◪㓗ᾦࡡࡻ ࠹࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࢅ⩻៎ࡌࡾ࡛ࡻࡂㄕ᪺࡚ࡀࡾ㸝Tett et al.2002㸞ࠊ↬ࡷᅰቫ⢇Ꮔࡡ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ ࣜࡡຝᯕࡢࡐࡿࡼ࡞ẒࡿࡣḗⓏ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ ㆗ㄵ 10. ࢵࣁࣜࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢࠉࡆࡆ 25 ᖳࡡንࡢࢭ࡚ࣞ࠵ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.96㸞ࠊ 䠎ཬㄵ䠐 ࡱࡍୌ⯙ㄵ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉᾇ㟻Ềనࡢ㎾ࡡᾇὮࡡ⮤↓ንິࡷᆀ┑ࡡንິ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡾࠊ ࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉୌ㒂ࡡᆀᇡ࡚ᾇ㟻୕᪴ぜࡼࡿ࠷ࡆ࡛ࡢ≁ื࡞࠽࠾ࡊ࠷ࡆ࡛࡚ࡢࡂࠉࡐࡿ ├ࡔ࡞ࠉᐁ㝷࡞㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛᪺ࡼ࠾ධ⌣Ⓩᾇ㟻୕᪴ࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾッᣈ࡞ࡢࡼ ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉୌ㒂ࡡᆀᇡࡡ⌟㇗ࢅ࡛ࡽ࠵ࡅ࡙ධమࡡലྡྷࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾㄵἪࡢࠉ㟸ᖏ࡞࣐ࢪ࣭ࣛࢸ ࣤࢡࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡐࡡⅤࢅᣞᦤࡊࡒ࠹࠻࡚ࠉࢵࣁࣜࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ཬㄵࡌࡾࠊ ῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ᘿࡡ᰷ᣈ࡛ࡊ࡙ᘤ⏕ࡌࡾ࢘ࣇࢦࢹ㸝http://john-daly.com/㸞࡚ࡢࠉࢵࣁࣜ ࡡ㤫㒌ࣆࢻࣆࢲ࡞ス⨠ࡈࡿࡒࣀ࣠ኬᏕࡡ₳నゝ࡞ࡻࡾ 1977 ᖳࠤ1999 ᖳᮆࡱ࡚ࡡ⣑ 22 ᖳ㛣ࡡ ᭮ื₳నゝῼࢸ࣭ࢰࢅࢡࣚࣆ࡛ࡊ࡙♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡢࡐࡡࢡࣚࣆࢅぜ࡙ࠉ≺⮤ࡡึ ࡚᩷ࠔࡆࡆ 25 ᖳࡡንࡢࢭࣞࠕ࡛㏑࡙࠷ࡾࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢࠉNTC㸝National Tidal Centre in Australian Bureau of Meteorology㸞 2005 ᖳ 6 ᭮࡞ප⾪ࡊࡒᅗื࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹ㸝NTC 2005㸞࡞ࡻࡾ ࡛ࠉྜྷࣀ࣠ኬᏕࡡ₳నゝࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡻࡾ 22 ᖳ㛣ࡡᾇ㟻ንࢹࣝࣤࢺࡢ+0.9mm/ᖳ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿ ࡢ᭩᩺ࡡ IPCC ሒ࿈᭡㸝IPCC 2007㸞࡞ࡻࡾ 1961 ᖳࠤ2003 ᖳࡡධ⌣ᖲᆍࡡᾇ㟻ንࢹࣝࣤࢺ 㸝1.8mm/ᖳ㸞࡛ྜྷ࢛࣭ࢱ࣭ࡡᩐೋ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ↋っ࡚ࡀࡾᑚࡈ࠷ࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊࡐࡡࢡࣚࣆࡡ ⦢㍂㸝₳నゝࡡゝῼೋ㸞ࡡࣝࣤࢩ-0.5mࠤ2.75m ࡛ᗀ࠷ࡒࡴࠉࡐࡡᅒࢅぜࡒࡓࡄ࡚ 0.9mm/ᖳ ࡡ୕᪴ࢹࣝࣤࢺ㸝22 ᖳ㛣࡚⣑ 2cm ࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴㸞ࢅぜฝࡌࡆ࡛ࡢῳ㎰㸝2005㸞࡞࡛ࡖ࡙ᅏ㞬࡚ ࠵ࡖࡒ࠾ࡵࡊࡿ࠷ࠉྜྷࢡࣚࣆࢅᘤ࠷࡙ࡀ࡙ࠔࡆࡆ 25 ᖳࡡንࡢࢭࣞࠕ࡛ึ᩷ࡌࡾࡡࡢ 㐲ว࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡒࡓࡊࠉࡆࡡࣀ࣠ኬᏕ₳నゝࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡢืࡡၡ㢗࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ NTC ࡡᅗืࣝ ࣭࣎ࢹࡢᣞᦤࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡢἸណᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㛏ࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ലྡྷࢅふῼࡌࡾࡒࡴ࡞ࡢࠉ ᆀ┑ỷୖ➴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙₳నゝࡐࡡࡵࡡࡡス⨠㧏ࡈንࢂࡾᙫ㡢ࢅḿ㸝ᇱ‵㟻ḿ㸞ࡌࡾᚪさ ࠵ࡾࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡷ▯ⓏᾇὊᣲິࢅふῼࡌࡾࡒࡴ࡞スゝࡈࡿࡒࡆࡡ₳నゝ࡚ࡢḿ ྊ⬗࡚࠵ࡽࠉ+0.9mm/ᖳ࡛࠷࠹ᩐೋࡡ☔ᐁᛮࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ኬࡀࡂࠉࡐࡡᩐೋࡡࡲࢅࡵࡖ࡙ࣆࢻ ࣆࢲ࡞࠽ࡄࡾᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡡ㛏ࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅ᩷ᏽฝᮮ࠷ࡆ࡛ᣞᦤࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࣆࢻࣆࢲ࡞㛭ࡊ ࡙࠷࠻ࡣࠉ㇞ᕗᅗ㝷㛜Ⓠᑻࡡ㈠㔘ᥴຐ࡞ࡻࡽス⨠ࡈࡿࡒ㸝ᇱ‵㟻ḿࡈࡿࡒ㸞⢥ᗐⰃ࠷₳నゝ ࡞ࡻࡾืࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡵᏋᅹࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ᇱࡘࡀࠉふῼ㛜ጙ㸝1993 ᖳ㸞࠾ࡼ᭩ 18 ㎾㸝2005 ᖳ㸞ࡱ࡚ࡡᾇ㟻ንࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ1997 ᖳࠤ1998 ᖳࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞㛭㏻ࡊࡒ ୌⓏᾇ㟻ୖ㜾࠵ࡖࡒ࡞ࡵ㛭ࢂࡼࡍࠉ+4.3mm/ᖳࡡᾇ㟻ንࢹࣝࣤࢺ࠵ࡖࡒࡆ࡛ฦ࠾ ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ౪↓ふῼ㛣▯࠷ࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉ㛏Ⓩࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅ᩷ᏽࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢฝᮮ࠷ࠉ1993 ᖳࠤ2005 ᖳࡡ㛣࡞ࡗ࠷࡙࠷࠻ࡣࠉࢵࣁ࡚ࣜࡢᾇ㟻୕᪴࠵ࡖࡒ࡛࠷࠻ࡾࠊ࠽ࠉ⌟ᅹࠉࢵࣁ ࣜ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢὝỀ࡞ࡻࡾ⿍ᐐ⏊ኬ࡞ࡽࡗࡗ࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹≟Ἓ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢ Patal㸝2006㸞 ࢅཤ↯ࡈࡿࡒ࠷ࠊ 3.2. ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㆗ㄵ ᵌ⏛㸝2006ࠉ2007㸞ࡡ㆗ㄵࡡ୯ᚨࢅࡌㄵⅤ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉࠔ㓗⅛⣪ቌ࠻࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼᆀ⌣Ὼ ᬦࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢࡂࠉᆀ⌣Ὼᬦࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼ㓗⅛⣪ቌ࠻࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠕ࡛࠷ ࠹ᘿ࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡵᇱᮇⓏ࡞ྜྷࡋᘿࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᮇ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆࡡᘿࢅ ᨥᣚࡌࡾッᣈ࡛ࡊ࡙ᙴࡼᥞฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙㆗ㄵࡊࠉᙴࡼࡡᘿㄏよ࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ࡒ ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌࠊ ㆗ㄵ 11. 㓗⅛⣪ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࡞ࡻࡾᆀ⌣ῺᬦࡢࡂࠉẴῺ୕᪴㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡡཋ ᅄ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸰㎾⸠ 2006㸰ᵌ⏛ 2007㸞 ࠊ ッᣈ 1. ౚ࠻ࡣࠉ Keeling et al.㸝1989㸞ࡡࢡࣚࣆ㸝ᅒ 4㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉẴῺࡡንࡢ㓗⅛⣪⃨ ᗐࡡንࡻࡽࡵ༖ᖳ᪡ࡂ⌟ࡿࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸰ᵌ⏛ 2007㸞 ࠊ ᅒ4. ふῼೋ࠾ࡼ㛏Ⓩ୕᪴ലྡྷ࡛Ꮢ⟿ንࢅཱིࡽ㝎࠷ࡒኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐንິ࡛ẴῺ ንິࡡ㛭౿ ฝᡜ㸯᰷ᮇ㸝1994㸞, p.151 19 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᅒ 4 ࡢࠉKeeling et al.㸝1989㸞࡞ࡻࡾୌࡗࡡࢡࣚࣆࢅ᰷ᮇ㸝1994㸞ᮇ࡞⣺ࡊࡒࡵࡡࡓ ࠉࡆࡡᅒࢅࡵࡖ࡙㓗⅛⣪ࡡንິᖏ࡞ẴῺ࡞㏛㝮ࡌࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡࡢᣉኬよ㔐࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡏࡼࡣࠉࡆࡡࢡࣚࣆࡢࠉ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡࠉ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ㛏Ⓩ୕᪴ലྡྷ㸝Ҹெ㛣Ὡິࡡ ᙫ㡢㸞ࢅ㝎࠷ࡒሔྙࡡẴῺ୕࡛᪴㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕࡛᪴ࡡ㛭౿ࢅ᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡌࡾ┘Ⓩ࡚షᠺࡊࡒ ࢡࣚࣆ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠵ࡾ≁ᏽࡡ㛣ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜ࡞࠽ࡄࡾẴῺ୕࡛᪴ኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕࡛᪴ࡡ ┞㛭㛭౿ࢅ♟ࡊࡒࡵࡡࡓ࠾ࡼ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࢡࣚࣆ࡚ࡢῺᗐ୕᪴㓗⅛⣪ࡡ⃨ᗐ୕᪴࡞⾔ࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ぜ࠻ࡾ⌦⏜࡛ࡊ࡙࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ⮤㌗ࠔ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࢅ♟ ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠕ࡛᪺ゕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡࡡࡻ࠹ណᅒ࡚ᅒ 4 ࢅషᠺࡊࡒ࠾࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࠉᙴ⮤㌗ࡡᮇ࡚ࡡㅦⁿ㘋࡚࠵ ࡾ Keeling㸝1993㸞ࠉࡈࡼ࡞Ὼᬦၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡࡡᴏ⦴࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ㏛ᝒ ㅦⁿ㘋࡚ࡵ࠵ࡾ Hansen㸝2005a㸞ࢅࡐࡿࡑࡿཤ↯ࡊ࡙ࡊ࠷ࠊ࠽㛭㏻ฦ㔕ࡡᑍ㛓ᐓࡡኣࡂ࡞ ࡛ࡖ࡙ᖏㆉ࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࠉ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ⮤㌗ࡢ⏍ᾥῺᬦㄵࢅᨥᣚࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࡆ࡛ࢅࡄຊ࠻࡙࠽ࡂࠊ ᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡢ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡῺᬦㄵᨥᣚ࠾ࡼᨥᣚࡡ❟ሔ࡞㌹ྡྷࡊࡒ࠾ࡡࡻ࠹༰㇗ࢅ࠻ ࡾオ㏑ࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠉKeeling㸝1993㸞ࡢㅦⁿ㘋࡚ኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ㛏Ⓩ୕᪴ெ㛣Ὡ ິࡡᙫ㡢࡚࠵ࡾ࡛㏑࡙࠽ࡽࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡᘿ࡛ࡢ┞ᐖࡿ࠷ࠊ ἑᐋ㸝2005㸞࡞࠵ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡ⮤↓㉫″࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐንິᣲᖕࡢ 0.5 ppm ⛤ᗐࠉንິࡡ≁ᚡⓏࢰ࣑ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡢᩐᖳ⛤ᗐ࡚࠵ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉኬẴኬᚘ⎌࣓ࢸࣜ ࢅ⏕࠷ࡒᆀ⌣Ὼᬦᐁ㥺࡞࠽࠷࡙㸡100ᖳ⛤ᗐࡡࢰ࣑ࢪࢢ࣭࡚ࣜ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ350ppm ࠾ ࡼ700ppm ࡞ಶቌࡊࡒ࡛ࡀࡡᆵⓏ᪴Ὼᖕ2ࠤ6Υ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝IPCC➠ḗሒ࿈᭡㸞ࡆ࡛ࢅ⩻࠻ ࡾ࡛ࠉᅒ4ࡡᣲᖕ࣬ࢰ࣑ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ᑚࡈࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⌟ᅹ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡢ ࡛ࢆᙫ㡢ࢅ࠻࠷࡚ࣝ࣊ࣜ࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹ሔྙࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡢུິⓏኬẴᠺฦ࡛ࡊ ࡙ᣲࡾ⯑࠷ࠉẴῺࡷ㜾Ề࡛࠷ࡖࡒ⎌ሾ᮪௲ࡡንິࡡᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡐࡿࡼࡻࡽన┞ࡡ㐔ࡿࡒንິࢅ ♟ࡌࠊୌ᪁ࠉ20ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾᆀ⌣Ὼᬦၡ㢗ࡡሔྙࡢࠉኬࡀ⃨ᗐን㛏㛣࡞ࢂ ࡒࡖ࡙⤾ࡂࡒࡴᨲᑏࣁࣚࣤࢪࡡንࢅ㏳ࡋẴῺࢅ⬗ິⓏ࡞ን࠻ࡾさᅄ࡛ࡊ഼࡙ࡂࠊ ࠽ࠉᅒ4ࡡ㛭౿ࢅᩔ⾕ࡊ࡙㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ㛏Ⓩ୕᪴ࢅㄕ᪺ࡊࡻ࠹࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ25ᗐ࡛࠷ ࡖࡒኬᖕẴῺ୕᪴ࢅ௫ᏽࡎࡉࡾࢅᚋࡂࡾࠉࡵࡔࢀࢆࡐࡡࡻ࠹ẴῺ୕᪴ࡢふῼࡈࡿ࡙ ࠷࠷ࠊᮇ✇ා㢄࡚⣺ࡊࡒゞㄵఌ࡚➱⩽ࡼࡢࡆࡡ□┢࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ᵌ⏛Ắ࡞ၡ࠷ࡒࡓࡊࡒࠉ᪺ ☔ᅂ➽ࢅᚋࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ࡚ࡀ࠾ࡖࡒ㸝ἑᐋ࡛ỜᏬ 2006㸞ࠊ ࡱࡒ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡢࠉᙴࡡᅒ2.14㸝ᮇ✇࡚ࡢᅒ5㸞ࢅ⏕࠷࡙CO2⃨ᗐࡡንࡢᾇ㟻ỀῺን࡞ ࡻࡖ࡙ᨥ㒼ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛㏑ࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡᘿࢅᨥᣚࡊࡒࠊ 20 ᅒ5 CO2⃨ᗐን࡛ᾇ㟻ỀῺን ฝᡜ㸯㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᅒ 2.14 ࡆࡡᅒ5࡚ࡢCO2 ⃨ᗐንࡡ㛏ലྡྷࡢሒ࡛ࡊ࡙ྱࡱࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠉ㛣᚜ฦ࡛ྜྷ➴ࡡ᧧షࢅ ᪃ࡌࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽぜ࠾ࡄ୕㛏ലྡྷࡡ༰㇗ࢅᘽࡂࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ௧ୖ࡞♟ࡌ࡛࠽ࡽࠉࡆࡡᅒࢅ୍ᐺ࡞ ぜࡿࡣࠉCO2⃨ᗐንࡡ㛏ലྡྷࢅᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡን࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡢㄕ᪺࡚ࡀ࠷ࡆ࡛᪺ࡼ࠾࡚࠵ ࡾࠊ ࡱࡍࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡷ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᘿ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉỀῺୖࡊࡒ 1ࠤ2 ᖳᚃ࡞ CO2 ⃨ᗐ ୖࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ☔ヾࡊ࡙࠽ࡂࠊࡆࡆ࡚㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᅒ 5 ࡚ỀῺࡡࢡࣚࣆࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ ỀῺ୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㛣࡛ୖ㜾ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㛣ࢅ୦᪁ྱࡳࡆ࡛ฦ࠾ࡾࠊୌ᪁ CO2 ࡡᖳቌຊ⋙ࡡ ࢡࣚࣆࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉㇿࡡೋ࡞ࡢỬࡊ࡙ࡼ࠷ࠊࡆࡿࡢࢡࣚࣆ࡞♟ࡈࡿࡒධ㛣ࢅ㏳ࡋࠉCO2 ቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅណࡌࡾࠊࡗࡱࡽࠉỀῺࡡ୕᪴࣬ୖ㜾࡞㛭౿ࡂ CO2 ቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛࠷ ࠹࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࢅᅒ 5 ࡢ⾪ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡᐁࡢᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡷ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᘿ࡛□┢ࡌࡾࠊ ࠽ࠉᅒ 4 ࡷᅒ 5 ࡞ぜࡼࡿࡾࡻ࠹ࠉCO2 ⃨ᗐẴῺ࣬ỀῺ࡞㐔ࡿ࡙ንࡌࡾ㛭౿ࡢࠉ㛏ᠺ ฦࢅཱིࡽ㝎࠷ࡒࡽࠉ㛣᚜ฦ࡞ྜྷ➴᧧షࢅࡊࡒࡽࠉరࡼ࠾ࡡฌ⌦ࢅ᪃ࡊ࡙ 2 ⩽ࡡ㛭౿ࢅ ᙁㄢࡊ࠷㝀ࡽ᪺▉࡞ࡢぜ࠻࡙ࡆ࠷ࠊ ࠽ࠉ1990 ᖳࡡᖲᆍⓏெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ᤴฝ㔖ࡢ 6.3GtC/yr ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡᤴฝ㔖ࡡ࠹ࡔ༖ฦ ⛤ᗐᾇὊࡷᯐ࡞ྺࡈࡿࡒሔྙ࡞ᑊᚺࡌࡾኬẴ୯ CO2 ⃨ᗐቌຊ⋙ࢅゝ⟤ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ 1.5ppm/yr ࡞ࡾࠊࡆࡿࡢᅒ 5 ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ 1990 ᖳࡡᖲᆍⓏ CO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴⋙࡛ୌ⮬ࡊ ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡࡆ࡛ࡢࠉᅒ 5 ࡞ぜࡼࡿࡾࠔỀῺࡡ୕᪴࣬ୖ㜾࡞㛭౿࠷ CO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࠕெⅥ㉫ ″ CO2 ᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠉ࡛࠷࠹⩻࠻᪁ࢅᨥᣚࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ୌ᪁ࠉᅒ6ࡢࠉᏒ⟿ንິࡡ㝎ཡ௧አ࡞ࡢ≁ืࢸ࣭ࢰฌ⌦ࢅ⾔ࢂࡍࠉᖳᖲᆍࡡCO2⃨ᗐ࣬ᾇ㟻 ỀῺ㸝SST㸞ࡡ㛣ንࢅࡵࡖ࡛ࡵ༟⣟ᙟ࡚Ẓ㍉ࡊ࡙ࡲࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 21 ᅒ 6 ࣏ࢻࣞ࡞࠽࠷࡙ふῼࡈࡿࡒ CO2 ⃨ᗐ㸝ᐁ⥲ࠉKeeling and Whorf 2005㸞࡛ධ⌣ᖲᆍᾇ 㟻ỀῺ㸝◒⥲ࠉRayner et al. 2003㸞ࡡ㛣ን Ἰ:୦⩽࡛ࡵ 12 ࣧ᭮⛛ິᖲᆍࢅ⏕࠷࡙Ꮢ⟿ንິࢅཱིࡽ㝎࠷࡙࠵ࡾ ࡆࡡᅒ 6 ࠾ࡼࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡷ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᘿ࡛␏ࡽࠉᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡ୕᪴࣬ୖ㜾࡞㛭ࢂ ࡼࡍ CO2 ⃨ᗐࡢୌ㈇ࡊ࡙ቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ฦ࠾ࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉࡆࡡᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡን࡞↋㛭౿ CO2 ቌຊࠉெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ࡡᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࠽ࡆࡡࡻ࠹ㄕ᪺ࢅࡌࡾ࡛ࠉࠔᅒ 6 ࡢெⅥ㉫″ CO 2 ࡞ࡻࡾῺᬦㄕ࡛ࡵ□┢ࡌࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ ࠷࠾ࠊࡆࡡᅒ࡚ࡢ CO2 ⃨ᗐ୕ࡖ࡙࠷ࡼࠉᾇ㟻ỀῺୖࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡒࡂࡈࢆ࠵ ࡾࠊࠕ࡛࠷࠹㈻ၡࢅུࡄࡾࡆ࡛࠵ࡾࠊࡆ࠹ࡊࡒၡ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡢࠉḗࡡࡻ࠹࡞➽࠻ࡾࡆ࡛࡚ ࡀࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉẴುࢅỬࡴࡾさᅄࡡ୯࡞ࡢࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡࡻ࠹࡞࿔Ⓩ࡞ẴῺ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺ ࢅ୕ࡅୖࡅࡌࡾࡵࡡࡷࠉኬぞᶅℾᒜᄂℾࡡࡻ࠹࡞ୌⓏ࡞ẴῺ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺࢅୖࡅࡾࡵࡡྱ ࡱࡿࡾࠊࡗࡱࡽࠉふῼࡈࡿࡾẴῺ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡ㛣ንࡢࠉCO2 ⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴࡞ᑊᚺࡊ࡙ࡹࡖࡂ ࡽ୕᪴ࡌࡾᠺฦ࡛ࠉ୕オࡡࡻ࠹⮤↓ንິ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙୕ୖິࢅ⧖ࡽ㏁ࡌᠺฦ࡛ྱࡱࡿࡾࠊ๑⩽ ࡞ࡻࡾ୕᪴ࡡ㏷ࡈࡢᚃ⩽࡞ࡻࡾ୕ୖິࡡ㏷ࡈࡻࡽ㐔࠷ࡒࡴࠉୌⓏ࡞ẴῺୖࡾኣᩐ ぜࡼࡿࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊᅒ 6 ࡡᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡ㛣ን࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉ▯࠷࿔࡚ንິࡌࡾᠺฦࢅࡡࡑ࠷࡙ 㛏Ⓩലྡྷࢅぜࡿࡣࠉ1970 ᖳ௧㜾୕᪴ലྡྷ࡞࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢂ࠾ࡾࠊࡆࡡ୕᪴ലྡྷࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ ࡡῺᐄຝᯕẴమᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾྊ⬗ᛮ㟸ᖏ࡞㧏࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝㆗ㄵ 6 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ ཬㄵࡵཤ↯ࡡࡆ࡛㸞ࠊ ࡱࡒࠉ㎾ᖳࡡCO2ቌຊெⅥ㉫″ᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅࡻࡽ❻Ⓩ࡞♟ࡌࢸ࣭ࢰ࡛ࡊ࡙ ᅒ7ࢅ᥎ࡅࡾࠊ 22 ᅒ 7࣍ࢪࢹ࣭ࢠࡡࢪࢤ࠾ࡼᚋࡼࡿࡒ CO2 ⃨ᗐ㸝Petit et al. 1999㸞࡛ࠉ᭩㎾ࡡ CO 2 ⃨ᗐ├ ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ㸝Keeling and Whorf 2005㸞ࢅࡗࡅ࡙♟ࡊࡒ⣌าࢡࣚࣆ ฝᡜ㸯Steffen et al.㸝2003㸞 ࡞ࡻࡾᅒࢅᨭን ࡆࡿࡢểᗃࢤ࠾ࡼ࡛ࡼࡿࡒ㐛ཡ40ᖳࡡCO2 ⃨ᗐࡡን࡛ࠉ࣏ࢻ࡚ࣞῼᏽࡈࡿࡒ 20ୠ⣎ᚃ༖௧㜾ࡡCO2⃨ᗐࡡን࡛ࢅࡗࡅ࡙♟ࡊࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡᅒ7࠾ࡼࠉ㎾ᖳࡢ㐛ཡ40 ᖳ࡞࠷ເ࠷࡚CO2⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ฦ࠾ࡾࠊࡆࡡCO2⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࢅ⎌ሾንິࡡ⤎ᯕ ࡛ࡊ࡙ㄕ᪺ࡊࡻ࠹࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉể-㛣ểࢦࢠࣜ࡞༆ᩓࡌࡾ⎌ሾን⏐ᴏ㠁௧ᚃ࡞㉫ࡆࡖ ࡙࠷ࡄࡿࡣࡼ࠷ࠊ㎾ᖳῺᬦࡡು᳠ฝࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ࡢゕ࠻ࠉࡐࡿࡱ࡚࡞ኬࡀ ንࡢふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷࠷ࠊ⏐ᴏ㠁௧ᚃࡡCO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡢࠉெ㛣Ὡິࡡ⤎ᯕ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡጂᙔ ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 㛏ንິᠺฦࢅཱིࡽ㝎ࡂ࡛ᅒ4ࡡࡻ࠹CO2⃨ᗐ࡛ẴῺࡡࣚࢡࡀ┞㛭ぜࡼࡿࡾཋᅄ࡞ࡗ ࠷࡙ࡵᴣ␆ࢅㄕ᪺ࡊ࡙࠽ࡂࠊࡱࡍࠉẴῺንິࡡᨥ㒼Ⓩさᅄ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼ࡚ࣘ࠵ ࡾࠊ⌟ᅹࡡ▩ぜ࡚ࡢࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍࡚ẴῺ୕ࡖࡒ࡛ࡀ࡞CO2⃨ᗐቌຊࡌࡾ⤄ࡲ࡛ ࡊ࡙ࠉ1㸞㧏Ὼࡵࡒࡼࡌᖱ㨟࡞ࡻࡾ㝛ᇡ⏍ឺ⣌ࡡ⏍⏐ງୖࠉ2㸞᪴Ὼ࡞ࡻࡾᅰቫ᭯ᶭ∸ࡡ ฦよಀ㐅ࠉ3㸞ஜ⇩࡞ࡻࡾᯐℾⅇࡡቌຊࠉ⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ࠽ᾇὊ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࠉ࢙ ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳ࡞ࡢCO2 ᨲฝ΅ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ᐁ㝷ࡡふῼ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝㆗ ㄵ4ཤ↯㸞ࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻Ὼᗐ୕᪴ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉࠔ㸝ெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗 ⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾㄵ⩽ࡡኣࡂッᣈࢅ♟ࡈࡍ࡞ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹㸞ᾇ㟻Ὼᗐ୕᪴࡞ ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡCO2ᨲฝࡈࡿࠉࡐࡿኬẴ୯ࡡCO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡡさᅄ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠕ࡛ ࠷࠹⩻࠻ࡢㄏࡽ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ἑᐋ 2005㸞ࠊ ᭩ᚃ࡞ࠉࠔῺᗐཋᅄ࡚⃨ᗐ⤎ᯕࠕ࡛࠷࠹❟ㄵࡡッᣈ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡆࡡࢡࣚࣆ㸝ᅒ4㸞ࢅཱིࡽ୕ࡅ ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾୠ⏲ࡡࠔெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࠕྫྷᏽㄵ⩽ࡡ୯࡚ࡢᮇࡡㄵ⩽ ࡡࡲ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉ1㸞᰷ᮇ㸝1994㸞ࡷࠉࡐࡡࢡࣚࣆࡡよ㔐ࢅᗀࡴࡒྫྷᏽㄵ⩽ࡡᙫ㡢ງ ᮇ࡚ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ኬࡀ࠾ࡖࡒࠉ2㸞ᮇࡡࠔெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࠕྫྷᏽㄵ⩽ࡡኣࡂ ࡢࠉᾇአ࡚ࡡ᭩᩺ࡡ㆗ㄵࢅࣆ࢚࣭ࣞࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࠉࢂ࠾ࡾࠊ 23 ッᣈ 2. 㓗⅛⣪ኬẴ୯⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴ཋᅄ࡚ࠉ⤎ᯕ࡛ࡊ࡙ẴῺ୕᪴㉫ࡆࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡ࡛௫ ᏽࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡷ࣒ࢰࣤࡡኬẴ୯⃨ᗐࢅ࿔Ⓩ࡞ንິࡈࡎࡾᆀ⌣ࢨࢪࢷ࣑ࡡ࣊ࣤࢹࢅ ♟ࡌࡆ࡛ᚪさ㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ㐛ཡࡡẴುንິ࡚㓗⅛⣪ࡷ࣒ࢰࣤࢅቌຊࡈࡎ࡙࠷ࡒࢹ࣭ࣛ࢝ࡢࠉẴῺ࡚ ࠵ࡖ࡙ࡵࡻࡂࠉࡆࡿࡵྱࡴ࡙ࠉ⌟ᅹࡡ⛁Ꮥࡢ௧ୖࡡ 3 ࡗࢅྜྷ࡞ヾࡴ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ 1㸞ẴῺཋᅄ࡚㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐንࢂࡾ 2㸞㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐཋᅄ࡚ẴῺንࢂࡾ 3㸞㎾ᖳࡡ 100 ᖳࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡢࠉ2㸞ኬࡀཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾ ࡱࡍࠉᙁㄢࡊࡒ࠷ࡡࡢࠉ1㸞ࡢ 2㸞 ࠉ3㸞࡛୦❟ࡌࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ1㸞ࢅヾࡴࡒࡼ᭩ᚃࠉ2㸞ࡵ 3㸞ࡵ ᘿࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷ࡄ࠷࡛࠷࠹㆗ㄵࡢᠺࡽ❟ࡒ࠷ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾࠊெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕ ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢࠉ࠵ࡂࡱ࡚ࡵ 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡῺᗐ୕᪴࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢ㓗⅛⣪ཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾ ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡿ௧አࡡ㐛ཡ࡞࠽ࡄࡾῺᗐ୕᪴࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉẴῺཋᅄ࡚㓗⅛⣪⃨ ᗐንࡊࡒሔྙᩐኣࡂᏋᅹࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ᭩ิ࠾ࡼヾࡴ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ≁࡞ࠉể㸢㛣ểࢦࢠࣜ ࡞࡛ࡵ࠹㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡንິ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࠉ࣐ࣚࣤࢤࣄࢴࢲ⌦ㄵ࡞ᚉࡖࡒᆀ⌣㌮㐠さ⣪ࡡን ᾇὊ⎌ሾࡡరࡼ࠾ࡡንࢅᘤࡀ㉫ࡆࡊࠉᾇὊࡡ㓗⅛⣪ྺቌኬ࡞ࡗࡖࡒ࡛ࡌࡾ⩻ ࠻᪁Ὦ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝㔕ᓧ 1994㸰Sigman and Boyle 2000㸞ࠊ ኣࡂࡡ࠷ࢂࡹࡾࠔ᠔ㄵ⩽ࠕࡡ᪁ࠍࡡ㛣࡞ࡢࠉࠔ㐛ཡ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡵ⌟ᅹ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡵ㓗⅛⣪ ࡡࡲῺᬦࡡཋᅄࡓ࡛ெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࡢᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ㄏࡖࡒヾㆉ ࠵ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉࡱࡈ࡞ࡆࡡࡻ࠹ᢀึࡆࡐࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅ ࠔ᠔ㄵ⩽ࠕ༎ฦ࡞⌦よ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ◂✪ࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࡆ࡛ࡡッᕞ࡛ゕ࠻ࡾࠊ ッᣈ 3.㸝ெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝ⤽⤾ࡊ࡙࠷ࡒ࡞ࡵᣂࡼࡍ㸞92 ᖳ࡛ 93 ᖳ࡚ࡢ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ ࡢቌຊࡊ࠾ࡖࡒ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005㸰㎾⸠ 2006㸞 ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ➠ୌ࡞ࠉኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐንࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ࡡᤴฝ࡛⮤↓ࡡ㸝ᾇὊ࠽ࡻࡦ㝛୕⏍ឺ⣌ࡡ㸞 ᤴฝ࠽ࡻࡦྺࡡ࡚Ửࡱࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉ⮤↓ࡡᤴฝ࣬ྺࡢℾᒜᄂℾࡷ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡࡻ ࠹⮤↓ንິ࡞ࡻࡽንິࡊࠉḿ࡚ኬࡀྺ࡞ࡾࡆ࡛ࡵ࠵ࡾࠊெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠵ ࡿࡣᚪࡍኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࡡ◂✪⩽ࡢ ᘿࡊ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡንິࡢࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡻ࠹ࡵ ࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ ➠࡞ࠉࡵ࡛ࡵ࡛Ꮢ⟿ንິࡻࡽᑚࡈ࠷㸝Ҹ⮤↓ࡡᤴฝ࣬ྺࡡᙫ㡢⌟ࡿ࡞ࡂ࠷㸞 SIO㸝Scripps Institution of Oceanography㸞࡞ࡻࡾ༞༖⌣ࡡふῼᆀⅤ࡚ࡡᖳᖲᆍ 㸝http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-keel.htm㸞ࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉࡆࡡ㛣ࡵ୕᪴ࡊ⤾ࡄ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ 24 ➠࡞ࠉඔࢸ࣭ࢰࠉࡌࢂࡔᵌ⏛ 㸝2006㸞 ࡡᅒ⾪ 2㸢4 ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㎾⸠ 㸝2006㸞 ࡡᅒ 2.11 ࢅ ぜࡾ࡛ࠉ᭮ื࡚ࡢ᭩㧏᭮ࡡ⃨ᗐࡢ 92 ᖳࡵ 93 ᖳࡵ୕᪴ലྡྷ࡞ࡢ࠵ࡽࠉධమࡡ୕᪴ലྡྷ࡞ࡐࡿ 㐋⬲ࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࡻ࠹࡞ࡵぜ࠻ࡾࠊ ➠ᄿ࡞ࠉࡐࡵࡐࡵࠉ2 ᖳ㛣ࡡ␏ᖏ࠵ࡾ࠾ࡼࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁௧㜾ࡡ⣑ 150 ᖳ㛣࡚ࡍࡖ࡛ᠺ❟ࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡾ࡛ᏽ࡚ࡀࡾࡵࡡࢅᏰධྫྷᏽࡌࡾࠉ࡛࠷࠹ㄵἪ⮤మ࠽࠾ࡊ࠷ࠊ ッᣈ 4. 2003 ᖳ࡚ࡢኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ 3 ppm ࡵቌຊࡊࡒ㸝ࡐࡿࡱ࡚ࡢẎᖳ 1.5ࠤ1.8ppm㸞 ࠊ 3ppm ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉெ㛣ᤴฝࡊࡒ㔖࡛ྜྷࡋ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2004㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍࠉ3 ppm ࡛࠷࠹ᩐᏊࡡ⏜ᮮ᪺࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ๑ฝࡡ㆗ㄵ 11 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࡡ୯࡚ࡵ㏑ ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ㓗⅛⣪ኬẴ୯⃨ᗐࡢࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ௧አࡡさ⣪ࡵᙫ㡢ࡌࡾࡒࡴኬࡀᖕ࠵ࡽ ᆀᇡ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵ␏ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉ3 ppm ࡛࠷࠹ᩐᏊࡵ࠵ࡽᚋ࠷ᩐᏊ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉ IPCC ➠ḗሒ࿈᭡࡚ࡵࠉ ࠔ1990 ᖳࡡᖳࠍࡡቌຊ㔖ࡢࠉ0.9 ppm㸝0.2㸚㸞࠾ࡼ 2.8 ppm㸝0.8㸚㸞 ࡱ࡚ࠕ࡛ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉንິᖕࡢኬࡀ࠷ࠊ ッᣈ 5. ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡ 1 ᖳᚃ࡞㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡌࡾࠊ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕ ᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ኬẴ୯࡞㓗⅛⣪ᾇὊ࠾ࡼᨲฝࡈࡿࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡆࡿࡵெⅥⓏᤴฝ㓗⅛⣪Ὼᬦㄕ࡛□┢ࡊ࠷ࠊ๑ฝࡡ㆗ㄵ 11 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵ࡚ࡵ㏑ ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ☔࠾࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐቌ࠻ࡾ࡛࠷࠹ᙟࡡᅄᯕ㛭౿ࡢ⩻࠻ ࡼࡿࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡐࡿࡢῺᬦࡷᖱࡣࡗ࡞ࡻࡾᯐℾⅇࡡ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝኬࡀࡂᙫ㡢ࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉ᭩㎾࡚ࡢ 97㹳98 ᖳࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉኣࡂࡡᅗ࡚ᩐ Ⓤ ha ࡵࡡᯐℾⅇ࠵ࡖࡒࠊ83 ᖳࡡࣤࢺࢾࢨ࡚ࡡᯐℾⅇࡵࡱࡒࠉࡐࡡ༖ᖳ௧୕๑ࡡ ࣓ࣤࢪ࣭ࣤࡡᖱࡣࡗ㸝ᐁ㝷࡞࠵ࡖࡒ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ㸞ࡡᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄ࡙㓗⅛⣪ࢅᤴฝࡊ࡙࠷ ࡒࠊ࠽ࠉḗࡡᅒ 8 ࡛ᅒ 9 ࡚♟ࡊࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇὊ࠾ ࡼ㓗⅛⣪ᨲฝࡈࡿࡾ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉᐁ㝷ࡡふῼ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉᐁ㝷ࡢࠉ㏣࡞࢙ ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡ㓗⅛⣪ᨲฝ㔖ࡢ΅ᑛࡌࡾ࡛࠷࠹ን㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Feely et al. 1999㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ఔࡖ࡙ኯᖲὊ㉝㐠ᇡ࡞ᗀࡾ㧏ῺࡡᾇỀ࡞ࡢࠉ⏍∸Ὡິࡡ ᙫ㡢࡞ࡻࡽࡵ࡛ࡵ࡛ CO2 ࠵ࡱࡽྱࡱࡿ࡙࠷࠷ࡒࡴ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 25 ᅒ 8 ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼ࡛ࣘᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡ㓗⅛⣪ᨲฝ࡛ࡡ㛭౿ ฝᡜ㸯Feely et al.㸝1999㸞 26 ᅒ 9 ᾇ㟻ỀῺ࡛㓗⅛⣪ฦᅸ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿ ฝᡜ㸯Feely et al.㸝1999㸞 㸱ᅒ 8 ࡛ ᅒ 9 ࡡ よ ㄕ㸳 ᅒ 8 ࡡྎาᾇὊ࠾ࡼࡡ CO2 ᨲฝࢅ♟ࡌࠊ୕ࡡ᪁ 92㸡93 ᖳ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳࠉୖࡡ᪁ࡡ 96 ᖳࡢ 㟸࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳ࡞࠵ࡒࡽࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳࡡ᪁ࠉCO2 ᨲฝᑚࡈࡂࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢂ࠾ࡾࠊ ᅒ 9 ࡚ࡢࠉᾇ㟻ỀῺ㸝SST㸞୕ࡾ࡛ CO2 ฦᅸ㸝pCO2㸞ୖࡾ㸝ᾇࡢ CO2 ࢅྺࡊࡷࡌࡂࡾ = ᾇ 㟻࠾ࡼࡡ CO2 ᨲฝ㔖ᑚࡈࡂࡾ㸞࡛࠷࠹ࡀࡿ࠷┞㛭♟ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࠽ᅒ 8㸡9 ࡚♟ࡊࡒࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ᑊࡊࠉࠔ92 ᖳࡢࣅࢻࢵ࣍ℾᒜᄂℾࡡ├ᚃ࡞࠵ࡒࡾࡡ࡚ࠉࡆࡡࡻ ࠹≁Ṟࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࡢ࠵࡙࡞ࡼ࠷ࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷࠾ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ၡࡵ࠵ࡾ࡚࠵ࢀ࠹ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ ࡆ࠹ࡊࡒࡓ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡐࡡࡵࡡ≁␏ᣲ⯑࠷ࢅぜࡎ࡙࠷ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ ࡂࠉኯᖲὊ㉝㐠ᇡ࡞࠽ࡄࡾỀῺࡡ୕᪴ࡢࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼ࡛ࣘྜྷᵕ࡞㉫ࡆࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊℾᒜᄂℾ ኬẴᾇὊ㛣ࡡ CO2 ஹᥦ࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ࠻ࡾࡻ࠹රమⓏࣈࣞࢬࢪᥞ᱄ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ ࡂࠉࡱࡒࠉỀῺ୕᪴࡞ఔ࠹ CO2 ᨲฝ΅ᑛࡡ⌦⏜ࡵ୕オࡡࡻ࠹࡞ྙ⌦Ⓩ࡞ㄕ᪺࡚ࡀࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ ࡆࡆ࡚♟ࡈࡿࡒ 92 ᖳࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࡢඖฦ⾪ᛮ࠵ࡾ࡛ᛦࡖ࡙ࡻ࠷ࠊᐁ㝷ࠉᅒ 9 ࢅࡲࡾ࡛ࠉ92 ᖳ ௧አࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࠉ93-96 ᖳ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡵࠉỀῺ࡛ CO2 ฦᅸࡡ㏣┞㛭ࡢࡢࡖࡀࡽ࡛ぜཱི࡙ࡿࡾࠊࡵࡔ ࢀࢆࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡࡻ࠹ฝᮮ࡞ࡻࡾࣆ࣭ࢺࣁࢴࢠࡢ࠷ࡗࡵྜྷࡋࡻ࠹࡞㸝ྜྷࡋኬࡀࡈ࡚㸞 ᠺ❟ࡌࡾ࡛ࡢ࠾ࡁࡼ࠷ࠊ ㆗ㄵ 12. ኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪࡛ᾇὊ୯㓗⅛⣪ࡢᖲᆍᾇ㟻Ὼᗐ࡚‵⇍ᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡞࠵ࡽࠉெⅥⓏ 㓗⅛⣪㛏㛣ኬẴ୯࡞⏻ࡱࡾ࡛ࡢ⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡢỀ࡛ཬᚺࡊ࡙⅛㓗࢛ࣤ➴ࡡᙟ࡚ᾇỀ࡞⁈ࡄࠉࡱࡒࠉᾇὊࣈࣚࣤࢠࢹࣤ ࡡὩິ࡞ࡻࡽࠉᾇὊ⾪ᒒࡡ⅛⣪ࡢ᭯ᶭ∸࡞ንᥦࡈࡿ࡙୯ᒒ࣬ᒒỷ㜾ࡌࡾࡒࡴࠉ㓗⅛⣪ ࡡᾇỀࡡ⁈よ㔖ࡢࣉ࣭ࣤࣛࡡἪ์㸝⁈よᗐࡡᑚࡈ࠷Ẵమ࡚ࡢࠉῺᗐୌᏽࡼࡣࠉୌᏽ㔖ࡡ 27 ⁈፳࡞࡛ࡄࡾẴమࡡ㈻㔖ࡢࠉࡐࡡẴమࡡฦᅸ࡞Ẓౚ㸞ࡓࡄ࠾ࡼࡢỬࡱࡼ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉ⾪ᒒỀࡢ 1000 ᖳࡡ࢛࣭ࢱ࣭࡚ᚘ⎌ࡊ࡙ᒒỀ࡛ථࡿ᭨ࢂࡾࡒࡴࠉᒒࢅྱࡳᾇὊධమࡡ⅛⣪㔖ኬẴ୯ ࡡ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡛ᖲ⾦ࡌࡾ࡞ࡢ 1000 ᖳ࢛࣭ࢱ࣭ࡡ㛣࠾࠾ࡾࠊ௧୕࠾ࡼࠉኬẴ࡛ᾇὊ࡛ ࡡ▯㛣ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡᖲ⾦≟ឺࢅᇱⅤ࡛ࡊࡒ㆗ㄵࡢㄏࡽ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ᤴ ฝࢅᅄ࡛ࡊ࡙᛬㏷࡞ቌຊࡊࡒኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉᾇὊධమ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡢධࡂᖲ⾦࡞ 㐡ࡊ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪ࢅࡊࡣࡼࡂࡢྺࡊ⤾ࡄࡾ㐛ῳ≟ឺ࡞࠵ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡྙ⌦ Ⓩ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࠽ࠉኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡỬᏽ࡞ࡢࠉᾇὊࡡࡲ࡚ࡂࠉ㝛ᇡ⏍ឺ⣌࡛ኬẴ࡛ࡡ ⅛⣪ஹᥦࡡᙲࡵ㔔さ࡚࠵ࡾࠉࡆࡔࡼࡵῺᗐࡡࡲ࡞ࡻࡾ▯㛣ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡚ࡢ㆗ㄵ ࡚ࡀ࠷ࠊ ㆗ㄵ 13. ᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕࡚᪴ࠉᾇὊ࠾ࡼ CO2 ኬ㔖࡞ᨲฝࡈࡿࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣ 1ΥࡡᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ CO2 ࡡ⁈よᗐࡢ 4%΅ᑛࡌࡾࠊᾇὊ⾪ᒒ࡞ྱࡱࡿࡾ↋ᶭ⅛⣪ࡢ 1,020Gt ࡚࠵ࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ1ΥࡡᾇỀ Ὼ୕࡚᪴ 40Gt㸝⅛⣪㔖ᥦ⟤㸞ࡡ CO2 ኬẴ୯࡞ᨲฝࡈࡿࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡾ㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ⅛㓗⣌࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕࠕ࡛ࡣࡿࡾ⌟㇗ࡡࡒࡴࠉ1ΥࡡῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡾ⅛⣪ᨲฝࡢ 40 Gt ࡻࡽᑚࡈࡂࠉ4 Gt ࡚࠵ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿࡢኬẴ୯⃨ᗐ࡞ᥦ⟤ࡊ࡙ 2ppm ࡚࠵ ࡽࠉ࣏ࢻࣞ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ CO2 ⃨ᗐ├ふῼጙࡱࡖࡒ 1958 ᖳ࠾ࡼ࠾ࡼ⌟ᅹࡱ࡚ࡡ CO2 ⃨ᗐቌ ຊ㔖 50ppm ࡞Ẓࢂࡍ࠾㔖࡚ࡊ࠾࠷ࠊධ⌣ᖲᆍ࡚ 1Υ⛤ᗐࡡᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ࡢࠉኬẴ୯ࡡ 㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࢅᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡞ㄕ᪺࡚ࡀ࠷ࠊ ࠽ࠉ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢ㔕ᓧ㸝1994㸞よㄕࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠉࡆࡆ࡚ᴣ␆ࢅㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࠊ ᾇὊ୯࡚↋ᶭ⅛⣪ࡢࠉ㓗⅛⣪㸝CO2 㸞ࠉ⅛㓗࢛ࣤ㸝CO32-㸞ࠉ㔔⅛㓗࢛ࣤ㸝HCO3-㸞ࡡ 3 ࡗࡡᙟឺࢅ࡞࡛ࡽࡼ⁈よࡊᖲ⾦࡞㐡ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࠔCO2 ࡡ⁈よᗐ 4%΅ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡢ ࠵ࡂࡱ࡚ CO2 ᙟឺࡡ⁈よᗐ 4%΅ᑛࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࢅណࡊࠉ3 ᙟឺࢅ࠵ࢂࡎࡒࠔධ⅛㓗ࠕ⃨ᗐࡡ ΅ᑛ㔖࡛ࡢ␏ࡾࠊCO2 ࡡ⁈よᗐ 4%΅ᑛࡊࡒ࡛ࡀࠉධ⅛㓗⃨ᗐࡡ΅ᑛ㔖ࡢࡐࡡ 1/10 ⛤ᗐࡡ ⣑ 0.4㸚࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡆࡡࡆ࡛ࢅ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡛ࡩࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉ୕ࡡ 1,020Gt ࡛࠷࠹ᩐᏊࡢࠉCO2 ᙟ ឺࡡ↋ᶭ⅛⣪㔖࡚ࡢࡂධ⅛㓗㔖࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛࡞Ἰណࡊ࡙ḟࡊ࠷ࠊ ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࠉࡈࡼ࡞ౚࢅᣪࡅ࡙ㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࠊSabine et al.㸝2004㸞ࡢࠉᾇὊྺࡊ ࡒெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ࡡฦᕱࢅ᥆ᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡿ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉᾇὊ⾪ᒒ࡞࠽ࡄࡾெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ࡡᆵ Ⓩ⃨ᗐࡢࠉධ⅛㓗࡚ 50 mmol/m3 ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡞ᑊࡊࠉ⮤↓⏲࡞ࡵ࡛࠾ࡼᏋᅹࡌࡾධ⅛㓗ࡢ ᾇὊ⾪ᒒ࡚ 2000 mmol/m3 ࡚࠵ࡽࠉெ㛣Ὡິ࡞ࡻࡾቌຊࡢ 2.5 %࡞㐛ࡁ࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊᾇ Ὂ⾪ᒒࡡ CO2 ฦᅸࡢኬẴ୯ࡡࡵࡡ࡛ྜྷᵕࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁௧๑࠾ࡼ 30 %㎾ࡂࡵቌ࠻࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Takahashi et al. 2002㸞ࠊᾇὊ୯ࡡ CO2 ฦᅸࡢ CO2 ᙟឺࡡ↋ᶭ⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞㸝ୌᏽῺᗐ࡚ࡢ㸞Ẓౚࡌࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡞ࡻࡽࠉධ⅛㓗⃨ᗐࡻࡽࡵቌຊࡡྙ 1 ᰾㧏࠷ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 28 ㆗ㄵ 14. ⅛Ề⣪⇖ᩩࡡ⇖↕࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ኬẴ࡞ຊࡈࡿࡾ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ⅛⣪ࡡ౩⤝㔖ࡢ 6 Gt ⛤ᗐ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉᖳ㛣࡞ኬẴ࡛⏍ឺ⣌࣬ᾇὊ⾪ᒒỀ࡛ஹᥦࡈࡿࡾ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ⅛⣪㔖 200 Gt ࡡࢂࡍ࠾ 3%࡞㐛ࡁ࠷㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡆࡿࡵ㟸ᖏ࡞࣐ࢪ࣭ࣛࢸࣤࢡ㆗ㄵ࡚࠵ࡾࠊኬẴࠉ㝛ࠉᾇࡡ㛣ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ࡡࡷࡽ࡛ࡽ㸝⮤ ↓ࡡ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌㸞ࡢࠉౚ࠻࡙ゕ࠻ࡣࠉᖳᗐᮆࡡṟ㧏㸝ኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ㸞ࡡንࡢኬࡀࡂ ࠷ࡵࡡࡡࠉᖳᗐ㏭୯࡚ࡡฝࡊථࡿ⃥ࡊ࠷㈋㔘ཾᗑࡡ㡰ථ࣬ᘤฝࡡࡻ࠹ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ࡓ࠾ࡼ ᚘ⎌࡛࠷࠹ྞ๑ࡗ࠷࡙࠷ࡾ㸞ࠊୌ᪁ࠉெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝࡢࠉࢂࡍ࠾ࡍࡗ࡚࠵ࡾᖳᗐᮆ ṟ㧏ࢅቌຊࡈࡎࡾ✒❟㈋㔘࡞ࡑࡼ࠻ࡾࡆ࡛ฝᮮࡾ㸝⏐ᴏ㠁௧㜾⌟ᅹࡱ࡚ࡡ⣴ゝ࡚⣑ 350 Gt㸞ࠊࡆࡡ⣴ゝ࡚⣑ 350 Gt ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁௧๑ࡡኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪Ꮛᅹ㔖ࡡ⣑ 7 ࡚࠵ ࡽࠉ⮤↓⏲ࡡ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌㐛⛤࡚ࡡንິ࡚ࡢྺ⬗㔖࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࠽ࠉࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢྡྷ㸝2007㸞 ࢅཤ↯ࡈࡿࡒ࠷ࠊ ㆗ㄵ 15. ࠔெⅥⓏ࡞ᤴฝࡈࡿࡒ㓗⅛⣪ࡡ ࠹ࡔ ࠉኬẴ୯࡞࡛ࡱࡾࡡ 46%ࠉᾇὊྺ 28%ࠉᯐྺ 25%ࠕ࡛࠷࠹᥆ᏽࡢ࠷࠷ຊ΅ࠊࠔᯐ࡞ࡻࡾྺࡡቌຊࠕࡢࠉᯐఅ ࡷ↕ࡀ⏷ࡡ⌟≟࡞ཬࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞 ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ๑ฝࡡ㆗ㄵ 11 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵ࡚ࡵ㏑ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉࡊࡣࡊࡣࠔῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙㓗⅛⣪⃨ ᗐ୕᪴ࡊࡒࠊெⅥⓏᤴฝࡢኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴࡞㛭౿࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᘿࡡࡵ࡛ࠉࣉࣤ ࣭ࣛࡡἪ์ࡷ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘᣚࡔฝࡈࡿࠔኬẴ୯࡞࡛ࡱࡾࡡ 46㸚ࠕࡡᩐᏊྫྷᏽ ࡈࡿࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹㆗ㄵࡢࠉ├វⓏ࡞ࡵ࠽࠾ࡊࡂࠉᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡞ࡵࡢࡖࡀࡽ࡛ྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡱࡍࠉ௫࡞ࠉ⌟ᅹふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ெⅥⓏᤴฝ⏜ᮮ࡚࠷࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ ᩐ༎ᖳ㛣ࡵን࠾ࡖࡒ≟Ἓ࠾ࡼࠉరࡼ࠾ࡡཋᅄ࡚ᾇὊ࠾ࡼெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡛ྜྷࡋ㔖ࡡ㓗 ⅛⣪࠷ࡀࡽᨲฝࡈࡿࠉࡐࡿ࡛ྜྷ࡞ධࡂྜྷ㔖ࡡெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪ᾇ࡛㝛࡞ ྺࡈࡿࡂ࡙ࡢࡼ࠷ࠊࡆࡿࡢ├វⓏ࡞㟸ᖏ࡞⩻࠻࡞ࡂ࠷ࠊ௫࡞ᯐఅ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵ㝛ᇡ ⏍ឺ⣌࠾ࡼᤴฝࠉࡈࡼ࡞ᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ᾇὊ࠾ࡼࡵᤴฝࠉெⅥⓏ▴⇖ᩩ࠾ࡼࡵᤴฝ࡛࠷࠹ࡡ ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉୌమࡐࡿࡼࡡ㓗⅛⣪ࡢ᭩⤂Ⓩ࡞ࡆ⾔ࡖࡒ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡓࢀ࠹࠾ࠊ ࣉ࣭ࣤࣛࡡἪ์࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ெⅥ㉫″㓗⅛⣪ᾇὊ࡞ࡌ࡙ྺࡈࡿࡾ࡛ㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡡࡵᅏ㞬 ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡏࡼࡣࠉࡵࡊெⅥ㉫″㓗⅛⣪ධ࡙ᾇὊ࡞ྺࡈࡿࡒ࡛ࡌࡿࡣࠉࡐࡡฦᾇὊ ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ࡡ㈻㔖ࡢኬࡀࡂࡽࠉᖲ⾦ࡌࡾኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ฦᅸࡵࡐࡿ࡞Ẓౚࡊ࡙ኬࡀ ࡂࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉெⅥ㉫″㓗⅛⣪ࡢኬẴ୯࡞ࡢṟࡖ࡙࠷࠷ࡡ࡚ฦᅸࡡ୕ࡽࡻ࠹࠷ࠊ ࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ࡡୌ㒂ኬẴ୯࡞ṟࡽࠉࠔᾇὊ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ 㔖ቌຊ࡞ᑊᚺࡌࡾ㓗⅛⣪ฦᅸ୕᪴ࠕ࡛ࠔኬẴ࡞ṟࡖࡒ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡽࡵࡒࡼࡈࡿࡾᐁ㝷 ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ฦᅸ୕᪴ࠕ➴ࡊࡂࡾ࡛ࡆࢀ࡚ᖲ⾦ಕࡒࡿࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 29 ࡱࡒࠉ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕᪴Ѝ㓗⅛⣪ᨲฝࡡྊ⬗ᛮࡵᐁῼ࡞ ࡻࡖ࡙᪺☔࡞ྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉୖオ࡞ᣪࡅࡾࡡࡢࠉ≺❟Ⓩ◂✪ᡥἪ࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ࡒ々ᩐࡡᏽ㔖Ⓩ◂✪࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡌ ࡙࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡡ⠂ᅑ࡚ࠉౚ࠻ࡣࠔெⅥⓏ࡞ᤴฝࡈࡿࡒ㓗⅛⣪ࡡ࠹ࡔ࡚ᾇὊ࡞ྺࡈࡿࡾ㔖ࠕ ࡞㛭ࡌࡾᩐೋ࡚ୌ⮬ࡊࡒ⤎ᯕࢅฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹ᩐᏊࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡡ࡚࠵ ࡿࡣࠉୌࡗୌࡗࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏཬッࢅᣪࡅࡾࡀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ◂✪ 1㸯14C ⃨ᗐࡡን ▴⇖ᩩ⏜ᮮெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪ࡢࠉ⅛⣪ྜྷనమ࡚࠵ࡾ 14C ࡡྱ᭯㔖ᑚࡈ࠷ࠊࡊ ࡒࡖ࡙ࠉᅒ 10 ࡞♟ࡊࡒࡻ࠹ኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪࡞ྱࡱࡿࡾ 14C ࡡ⃨ᗐንࢅぜࡿࡣࠉኬẴ ୯㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴▴⇖ᩩ⏜ᮮெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ࠾ྫྷ࠾ࢂ࠾ࡾ4㸝Damon et al. 1973㸰 Baxter and Walton 1970㸞ࠊ ᅒ 10 ኬẴ୯ࡡ࠽ࡄࡾ 14 C ⃨ᗐࡡን ฝᡜ㸯 Hadley Center㸝2005㸞 ◂✪ 2㸯O2 ⃨ᗐࡡን ኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⣪ࡡ⃨ᗐࡢࠉ▴⇖ᩩ⏜ᮮࡡெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠽ࡻࡦ㝛ᇡ᳔⏍࡞ࡻࡾྺ࡞ ࡻࡖ࡙ንࡌࡾࠉᾇὊ࡞ࡻࡾ㓗⅛⣪ྺ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡢንࡊ࠷ࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉKeeling et al.㸝1996㸞࡚᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⣪࡛㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡንࢅ࠵ࢂࡎ࡙ぜ ࡿࡣࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝࢅྱࡴࡒ㓗⅛⣪ࡡᤴฝ࣬ྺ″ࡡᐞᗐࢂ࠾ࡾ㸝ᅒ 11㸞 ࠊࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ ࡙ ࡢ IPCC ➠ ḗ ሒ ࿈ ᭡ ࡚ レ ࡊ ࡂ ㆗ ㄵ ࡈ ࡿ ࡙ ࠷ ࡾ 㸝 IPCC, 2001 㸞ࠊ ౚ ࠻ ࡣ http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig3-4.htm ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻࠊ 㝛୕⏍ឺ⣌࡞ࡻࡾྺࡢࠉኬẴࡡ㓗⅛⣪ᨥࢅᆀᇡื࣬Ꮢ⟿Ⓩ࡞ฦࡄ࡙よᯊࡌࡾࡆ࡛ ࡞ࡻࡽࠉ࡞༖⌣୯࣬㧏⦃ᗐࡡ᳔⏍ྺࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢂ࠾ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᮄࠉⲙࠉ 4 ࡻࡽレ⣵ࡢࠉThe global carbon cycle. Chapter 2: Variations in atmospheric CO2 content, by H..D.Freyer. 㸝http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope13/chapter03.html#abs㸞ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻࠊ 30 ᅒ 11 O2 ࡛ CO2 ࡡふῼ⤎ᯕ࠾ࡼᚋࡼࡿࡒ㎾ᖳࡡ CO2 ᨥ࡞㛭ࡌࡾᶅᘟᅒ ฝᡜ㸯᮶ኬᏕኬẴᾇὊንິふῼ◂✪ࢬࣤࢰ࣭㸝2006㸞 ᅰቫࡡ㒼ฦࡷࠉࡡ⛤ᗐᏭᏽࡊࡒᙟ࡚㈋ⶮࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢᮅよ᪺ࡆ࡛ࡵኣ࠷ࠊ 㝛୕⏍ឺ⣌ࡡྺࡨ࠻ࡒ⌦⏜ࡡୌ㒂ࡢࠉᆀᇡࡷ⏍∸⛸࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ୌᵕ࡚࠷ࡵࡡࡡࠉ1㸞≁࡞ ⡷ࡷ࣭ࣙࣞࢴࣂ࡞࠽ࡄࡾኣࡂࡡ㎨ᆀࢂࡿࡂࡖ࡙ᯐ࡞ࡾ༟ࡾᅰᆀฺ⏕ን 㸝Caspersen et al. 2000㸞ࠉ2 㸞㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡቌຊ࠽ࡻࡦẴುንකྙᠺ࡞ࡻࡾ᭯ᶭ∸⏍⏐ ࡞ฺ᭯࡞ష⏕ࠉ3㸞ኬẴỗࡷ⫟ᩩ࡞⏜ᮮࡌࡾ✽⣪࡞ࡻࡾ᪃⫟ຝᯕࠉ࡚ㄕ᪺ࡈࡿࡾࠊ ◂✪ 3㸯ᾇὊ୯⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡን㸝6 ࡗࡡ≺❟ࡊࡒᡥἪ㸞 ኬẴ࡛㓗⅛⣪ࢅࡷࡽཱིࡽࡌࡾࡡࡢᾇὊ࡛㝛ᇡ⏍∸ᅥࡡ 2 ࡗࡓࡄ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉኬ Ẵ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ࡡୌ㒂࡚ࡵᾇὊࡽ㝛ᇡ࠾ࡼᤴฝࡈࡿࡒࡵࡡࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡࡗ ㈋ⶮࡌࡾ⅛⣪㔖ࡡ΅ᑛᐁ㝷࡞ゝῼࡈࡿࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉࡌ࡚࡞௧ୖࡡ 6 ࡗ ࡡ≺❟ࡊࡒᡥἪࢅ⏕࠷ࡒᏽ㔖Ⓩฦᯊࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉኬẴ࡛ᾇ࡛ࡡࡷࡽ࡛ࡽ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉࡌ ࡙ୌ⮬ࡊࡒ⤎ᯕ㸝ᾇὊ⅛⣪㔖΅ᑛࡡྫྷᏽ㸞ࢅ᪺☔࡞♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ 1㸞ᾇὊ⾪㟻ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ฦᅸࡡ├ふῼ㸝Takahashi et al. 2002㸞 2㸞␏ࡾᾇᇡࡡ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌㔖ࢅ♟ࡌ㓗⅛⣪ࡡኬẴ୯ࡡ✭㛣ฦᕱふῼ㸝Bousquet et al. 2000㸞 3㸞⏍మࣈࣞࢬࢪᙫ㡢ࢅᤴ㝎ࡊࡒ CFC ࡛⅛⣪ࠉ㓗⣪ࠉ㣬ฦࡡ⥪ྙふῼ 㸝Sabine et al. 2004㸞 4㸞CFCs ࡞ࡻࡾỀࡡᖳ㱃᥆ᏽ࡛⤄ࡲྙࢂࡎࡒ⅛⣪࡛ࣜ࢜ࣛᛮࡡᅂࡡふῼ㸝McNeil et al. 2002㸞 5㸞ኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪ቌຊ࡛㓗⣪΅ᑛࡡྜྷふῼ㸝Keeling et al. 1996㸞 6㸞ኬẴ୯㓗⅛⣪ቌຊ࡛ 13C ΅ᑛࡡྜྷふῼ㸝Ciais et al. 1995㸞 31 ࡌࢂࡔࠉ⌟Ⅴ㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮㸞࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉᾇὊ୯⅛⣪࡞㛭ࡊ࡙΅ᑛࢅ♟ࡌふῼࡡሒ࿈ᩐ ࡢࢭ࡚ࣞ࠵ࡾࠊୌ᪁ࠉ୕㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉቌຊࢅ♟ࡌふῼࡡሒ࿈ᩐࡢࠉ6 ࡗࡡ≺❟ࡊࡒᡥἪࢅ⏕࠷ ࡙ 20 ௧୕ࡡ◂✪ᩝ⊡࠵ࡾࠊ⧖ࡽ㏁ࡊ࡙ゕ࠹ࠉࡵࡊࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹ᩐᏊࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡿ ࡣࠉୌࡗୌࡗࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏཬッࢅᣪࡅࡾࡀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ㆗ㄵ 16. ⌟ࡡ⛁Ꮥ࡚ึࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉᆀ⌣Ὼᬦࡌࡾ࡛ᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡌࡾྊ⬗ᛮ㧏࠷ࠊࡒࡓ ࡊࠉࡐࡡ⌦⏜ࡢࠉᴗࡷ༞ᴗࡡể⁈ࡄࡾ࠾ࡼ࡚ࡢࡂࠉᾇࡡỀ⭶ᘿࡌࡾ࠾ࡼ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝Ṃ⏛ 2007, p.125㸞 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍࠉ ࠔểࠕ࡞ࡢࠉểἑࠉểᗃࠉểᖐࠉểὮࠉᲬểࠉểᒜࠉᾇể࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅᣞᦤࡊ࡙࠽ ࡂࠊ☔࠾࡞ࠉṂ⏛㸝2007㸞ᣞᦤࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࣒ࣜ࢞ࢸࢪࡡཋ⌦࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇỀ㟻୕᪴࡞ᑊࡌ ࡾểᒜ㸝ểἑ࠾ࡼểᓻࡿⴘࡔ࡙ᾇ࡞ᾃ࠾ࢆ࡚࠷ࡾࡵࡡ㸞ࡷᾇể㸝ᾇỀࡖࡒࡵࡡ㸞ࡡ ⁈よ࡞ࡻࡾᙫ㡢ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ᑚࡈ࠷ࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉểᒜࡡሔྙࠉểἑᓻⴘࡊ࡙ểᒜࡡ࡚ࡀࡾ█㛣࡞ᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢ⏍ࡋࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉể ᒜ࡛ᾇỀࡡሲฦ⃨ᗐ␏ࡾࡒࡴ࡞ࠉࢂࡍ࠾࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉểᒜ⁈ࡄࡾ࡛ኣᑛࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ ࡢ㉫ࡀࡾࠊୌ᪁ࠉ㝛ᇡࡡ୕࡞ᏋᅹࡌࡾểᗃࡷểᲬࡡ⼝よ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢ↋っ࡚ࡀ࠷ኬ ࡀࡈ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡌࢂࡔࠉṂ⏛㸝2007㸞ࡢࠉ1㸞㝛ࡡể⁈ࡄ࡙Ề࡞ࡖ࡙ᾇ࡞࠷ࡂࠉ2㸞㝛ࡡểᓻࡿ࡙ể ࡡࡱࡱᾇ࡞࠷ࡂࠉ࡛࠷࠹ࡗࡡࣈࣞࢬࢪ࡞ᑊࡌࡾヾㆉ༎ฦ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ᭩᩺ࡡ IPCC ➠ 4 ḗሒ ࿈᭡㸝IPCC 2007㸞ࡢࠉᵕࠍさᅄࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡡᐞᗐࢅ᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡿ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ 1993 ᖳࠤ2003 ᖳ࡞㉫ࡀࡒᾇ㟻୕᪴㸝3.1 s 0.7 mm/year㸞ࡡᐞᗐࡢࠉ⇍⭶ᘿ 1.6 s 0.5mm/yearࠉểἑ࡛ểᖐࡡ⼝よ 0.77 s 0.22mm/yearࠉࢡ࣭ࣛࣤࣚࣤࢺࡡểᗃ⼝よ 0.21 s 0.07mm/yearࠉ༞ᴗࡡểᗃ⼝よ 0.21 s 0.35mm/year ࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ༞ᴗࡷᴗ ࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔểࠕࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡡᐞᗐࡢ 3 ฦࡡ 1 ⛤ᗐ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊ 32 3.3. ᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡᵋ㏸࣬කᏕ≁ᛮ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㆗ ㄵ ᠔ㄵ⩽ࡡ㛣࡚ᆵⓏ㆗ㄵ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉࠔ㉝አ⥲ྺࡡᙲࡢỀⵠẴ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡡቌຊ ࡛ࡾ࡞㊂ࡼ࠷ࠕ ࠉࡱࡒࠉ ࠔ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ㉝አ⥲ྺࡢ㣤ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ⃨ᗐቌຊࡊ࡙ ࡵ᪴Ὼ࡞ࡗࡼ࠷ࠕ࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡵࡡ࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒᵌ⏛㸝2004ࠉ2006㸞ࡢ≺⮤ࡡ⌦ㄵ࡞ࡻࡽᆀ ⌣⾪㟻ࡡẴῺ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞ࡻࡼ࠷ධࡂืࡡ㐛⛤࡞ࡻࡖ࡙Ửࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ᘿࡌࡾࠊᮇ ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡᘿࡡ⫴ᚃ࡞࠵ࡾㄏよ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ᣞᦤࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡂࠊ ㆗ㄵ 17. ᑊὮᅥ୕㒂ࡡኬẴῺᗐࡢࠉࡐࡡኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴࡡฦᏄᣲິ࡞ࡻࡾᏫᏼࡡᨲ⇍࡚Ửࡱ ࡾࠊࡆࡡῺᗐࡢ࣏ࢻࢪ 18Υ࡚࠵ࡾࠊṟࡽࡡᑊὮᅥኬẴࡡᇱ‵ῺᗐࡢẴᅸ࡚Ửࡱࡾࠊ㧏ᗐࡡୖ 㜾࡞ఔ࠷Ẵᅸ୕ࡾ࡛Ὼᗐ୕ࡾࠊᆀ୕ࡡῺᗐࡢ㸝ẴῺ㸞ࡢࠉ1 Ẵᅸ࡚ࡡᇱ‵Ὼᗐࡡ㎾ ࡞࠵ࡾࠊᇱ‵ῺᗐࡻࡽࡵᑊὮᅥኬẴࡡῺᗐ㧏ࡂࡾ࡛Ꮽᏽ࡞ࡽࠉᑊὮ࡛ࡐࡿ࡞ఔ࠹ⵠẴ 㜾㞭Ⓠ⏍ࡊ࡙෫༴ࡈࡿࡾࡡ࡚ࠉᇱ‵Ὼᗐࡢ⥌ᣚࡈࡿࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2004㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᆀ⌣ࡡ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ᨥࡢࡗࡽ࠵ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛㎾జ࡚ࡀࡾࡡ࡚ࠉᆀ⌣ྺࡌࡾኯ㝟࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ ࡡ㔖ንࢂࡼࡄࡿࡣࠉᏫᏼ࠾ࡼぜࡒ࡛ࡀ࡞ᆀ⌣ฝࡌᨲᑏࡡ⾪Ὼᗐ㸝᭯ຝᨲᑏῺᗐ㸞ࡢୌ ᏽ㸝࣏ࢻࢪ 18Υ㸞࡛ࡲࡊ࡙ࡵࡻ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢ㎾జⓏ࡞ࡢୌᏽ࡛ࡲ ࡊ࡙ࡵࡻ࠷ࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡᘿ࡚ࡢࠉᨲᑏࡡ⾪Ὼᗐࢅࡵࡗ㧏ࡈንࡌࡾࡆ࡛ぜⴘ࡛ࡈࡿ ࡙࠷ࡾࠊῺᐄຝᯕ∸㈻ኣ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡢࠉ㉝አ⥲࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ኬẴࡻࡽ㏩᪺ࡓ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡓ ࠾ࡼࠉ㉝አ⥲࡚Ꮻᏼ࠾ࡼぜ࠻ࡾࡡࡢࡻࡽአഁࠉࡗࡱࡽࡻࡽ㧏࠷࡛ࡆࢀ࡞ࡾࠊࡗࡱࡽࠉᨲᑏࡡ ⾪Ὼᗐࢅࡵࡗ㧏ࡈࡢῺᐄຝᯕ∸㈻ኣ࠷㧏ࡂࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉῺᗐ໖㒼ୌᏽࡼࡣࠉ ᆀ㟻㎾ࡡẴῺࡢࠉࡻࡽ㧏ࡂࡾࠊࡆࡿࡢ┷㘘࡞ࡻࡾḗࡡ᭯ྞῺᐄຝᯕࡡㄕ᪺࡞ࡼ࠷ 㸝ౚ࠻ࡣ┷㘘 1985㸞ࠊᅒ 12 ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉᆀ⌣ࡡฝࡌᨲᑏࡡ⾪Ὼᗐ Te ࡚ࠉኯ㝟࠾ࡼུࡄཱིࡾ ᨲᑏ࡛ࡗࡽ࠵ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ࡌࡾࠊᐁ⥲ࡡῺᗐฦᕱࡼࡣࠉᅒ 12 ࡡ A ᨲᑏࢅฝࡌ⾪న⨠࡚࠵ ࡾࠊࡆࡆ࡚ኬẴ㉝አ⥲࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡻࡽ㏩᪺࡞ࡖࡒ࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉᨲᑏࢅฝࡌ⾪న⨠ A'࡞ን ࢂࡾࠊ࡛ࡆࢀࡆࡿ࡚ࡢᆀ⌣ฝࡌ࢙ࢾུ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡄཱིࡾኯ㝟࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡻࡽᑛ࠷ࡡ࡚ࠉᆀ ⌣㸝ኬẴ࣬ᾇὊ㸞ᬦࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡂࠊA'ࡡ㧏ࡈࡡῺᗐ Te ࡛ࡾ◒⥲ࡡῺᗐฦᕱࡱ࡚ኬẴධమ ᬦࡱࡖ࡙ࠉᆀ⌣ࡡ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ᨥࡗࡽ࠵࠹ࡆ࡛࡞ࡾࠊ࠽ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢᆀ⾪㎾ࡡẴῺࡢ ࡆࡿࡓࡄ࠾ࡼࡢỬࡱࡼࡍࠉᆀ⾪㟻࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ᨥࡡᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡾⅤ࡞Ἰណᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 33 ᅒ 12 ẴῺ࡛㧏ᗐ࡛ࡡ㛭౿ࢅ♟ࡌᶅᘟᅒ ฝᡜ㸯┷㘘㸝1985㸞්㘋 හᔪ㸝1990㸞 ㆗ㄵ 18. ᠺᒒᅥ࡚ࡵኬẴࡢᚘ⎌ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡡ⤎ᯕ⛂㏷ 60 ࣒࣭ࢹࣜࡵࡡ㢴ྻ࠷࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ ᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡛ࡢ࡛࡙ࡵゕ࠻࠷ࠊࡱࡊ࡙ࠉᑊὮᅥ࡚ࡢࠉ✒㞴ぜࡼࡿࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᆀ⾪࠾ࡼᑊὮᅥ ୕㒂ࡱ࡚├⤎ࡊ⃥࡙ࡊ࠷Ὡິ࠵ࡽࠉࡆࡿࢅᖲ⾦࡚㎾జࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࡐࡵࡐࡵ↋⌦࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡐࡡ ࡻ࠹ᖲ⾦࣓ࢸࣜࢅฝⓆⅤ࡛ࡌࡾᆀ⌣Ὼᬦㄵ࡚ࡢḿࡊ࠷➽࠻ᚋࡼࡿࡾࡢࡍ࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞 ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᨲᑏᑊὮᖲ⾦࣓ࢸࣜࡡࠔᖲ⾦ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᴣᛍ࡞ᨼវ࡞ཬᚺࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡚࠵ࡾࠉࡆࡆ࡚ࡢࡱ ࡍ⏕ㄊࡡណࡡ㣏࠷㐢࠷࡞㉫ᅄࡌࡾㄏよ࠵ࡾࡆ࡛࡞Ἰណࡊࡒ࠷ࠊẴು࣓ࢸࣜࡡᩝ⬞࡚ࠔᖲ⾦ࠕ ࡛࠷࠹⏕ㄊណࡌࡾࡡࡢࠉ⇍ງᏕⓏ⏕ㄊ࡚ࡢࠔᖲ⾦≟ឺࠕ㸝࢙ࣤࢹࣞࣅ࣭ᴗኬࡡ࠷ࢂࡹࡾ ࠔ⇍ⓏṒࠕࡡ≟ឺ㸞࡚ࡢࡂࠉ ࠔ㟸ᖲ⾦ᏽᖏ≟ឺࠕ 㸝࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡡฝථࡽ࡞ࡻࡽ࢙ࣤࢹࣞࣅ࣭ࢅ ࡂಕࡖࡒࡱࡱ㛣Ⓩ࡞ᏽᖏ≟ឺ㸞ࡡࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾࠊᆀ⌣ࡢ⇍ງᏕⓏ࡞ࡢ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ 㛜࠷ࡒ㟸ᖲ⾦⣌࡚࠵ࡾࡒࡴࠉᆀ⌣∸⌦Ꮥ࡚ࡢ㸝ᑛࡂ࡛ࡵኬᚘ⎌ࡡࢪࢢ࣭࡚ࣜࡢ㸞Ꮣ❟⣌ࡡ⇍ ງᏕⓏᖲ⾦≟ឺࢅၡ㢗࡞ࡌࡾᶭఌ↋࠷ࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉࠔᖲ⾦ࠕ࡛࠷࠹⏕ㄊ⇍ງᏕⓏᖲ⾦࡚ࡢ ࡂ༟࡞አ㒂᮪௲࡞ࣁࣚࣤࢪࡊࡒ㛣Ⓩᏽᖏ≟ឺࢅ⾪ࡌណ࡚⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾࡆ࡛ៈౚࡊ࡙ ࠷ࡾࡵࡡ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿࢅ⇍ງᏕⓏᖲ⾦ུ࡛ࡄཱིࡼࡿࡾ࡛ࠉኬࡀㄏよࢅᣅࡂྊ⬗ᛮ࠵ࡾࠊ ࡆࡡⅤࡢᆀ⌣∸⌦Ꮥ⩽㸝Ẵ㇗Ꮥ⩽㸞ࡡഁ࠾ࡼࡵἸណࡌࡀⅤ࡛ゕ࠻ࡾ࠾ࡵࡊࡿ࠷ࠊ ࡈ࡙ࠉࡆࡡⅤ࡞Ἰណࡌࡿࡣࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡㄏよࢅᣞᦤࡌࡾࡡࡢᐖ᪾࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㕼├ 1 ḗඔᨲ ᑏᑊὮᖲ⾦࣓ࢸ࡚ࣜࡢࠉỀᖲ᪁ྡྷ࡞ᖲᆍࡈࡿࡒ㕼├Ὼᗐᵋ㏸ࢅၡ㢗࡞ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᠺᒒᅥࡡᚘ ⎌ࡢ㢴㏷ኬࡀࡂ࡙ࡵỀᖲᖲᆍࡊࡒ㕼├Ὼᗐᵋ㏸ࡡን࡞ኬࡀࡂᐞࡊ࠷ࡡ࡚ࠉࡐࡡຝᯕࡢ ┤␆ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠉࡆࡿࡢ࣓ࢸࣜࠔᠺᒒᅥࡡኬẴᚘ⎌ࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࠕ࡛௫ᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ 34 ណࡊ࠷ࠊ✒㞴࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࡐࡡᖲᆍⓏຝᯕࢅᑊὮㄢ⟿࡛ࡣࡿࡾ㎾జ㸝ࣂ࣒ࣚࢰࣛࢭ࣭ ࢨࣘࣤ㸞࡞ࡻࡽ⩻៎ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ࣓ࢸࣜࡢࠔᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├㐘ິᏋᅹࡊ࠷ࠕ࡛ࡵ௫ᏽࡊ࡙ ࠷࠷ࠊ ࠽ࠉ㎾ᖳῺᬦࡡ◂✪࡞ࡻࡂ⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾ 3 ḗඔࡡኬẴኬᚘ⎌࣓ࢸ࡚ࣜࡢࠉᠺᒒᅥࡡᚘ⎌ࡵ ᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├㐘ິࡵ㸝✒㞴ࡡຝᯕࡢࣂ࣒ࣚࢰࣛࢭ࣭ࢨ࡚ࣘࣤ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡ㸞᪺♟Ⓩ࡞⾪⌟ࡈࡿ ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ㛣Ⓩᏽᖏ≟ឺࡵ௫ᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷࠷ࡡ࡚ࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡᢀึࡢࡈࡼ࡞ᙔࡒࡼ࠷ࠊ ㆗ㄵ 19. ẴῺࡢࠉ1㸞ᑊὮᅥ୕✭ࡡῺᗐࠉ2㸞᩷⇍ᅸ⦨ࠉ3㸞ỀⵠẴࢅཋᅄ࡛ࡌࡾᑊὮࠉ࡚Ửࡱ ࡾࠊCO2 Ὼᬦㄕࡢࠉࡆࡿࢅ༎ฦ࡞⩻៎ࡊ࡙࠷࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞 ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡆࡡ 3 㡧┘࡞ࡢᨲᑏ㐛⛤Ḗⴘࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ᇱᮇⓏ࡞ᑊὮ࡚Ửࡱࡖ࡙ ࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ☔࠾ࡓࠉῺᗐࡐࡡࡵࡡࢅỬࡴࡾ୕࡚ࡢᨲᑏ㐛⛤ࡢ↋っ࡚ࡀ࠷ࠊ ࡱࡍࠉ௫࡞ỀⵠẴࡡฆ⤎࣬ⵠⓆ㐛⛤࠷ሔྙࢅ⩻࠻ࡾࠊஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼ࡻࡽࡀࡗ࠷໖㒼ࡢࠉ ᑊὮ㉫ࡆࡾࡡ࡚㛏⤾ࡀࡊ࠷ࠊ㏣࡞ࡹࡾ࠷ሔྙ㸝୕ୖ㏣㌹ࡊࡒሔྙࢅྱࡳ㸞ࡢᑊὮᢒโࡈ ࡿࡾࡡ࡚ᣚ⤾ྊ⬗࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉ✭㛣ᖲᆍࡊࡒ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢࠉஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼࠾ࡐࡿ ࡻࡽࡹࡾ࠷ࠊᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡᑊὮᅥࡡ≟Ἓ࡚ࡢୖ❻ࡡᆀ⾪㟻࡞ኯ㝟ᨲᑏྺ࡞ࡻࡾ⇍″࠵ࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ ᚪࡍᑊὮ㉫ࡀࠉᖲᆍࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼࡞㎾ࡂࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ỀⵠẴࡡຝᯕࡢࠉᇱᮇⓏ࡞ฆ⤎࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ỀⵠẴࡡᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡒ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡱࢂࡽࡡ✭Ẵ࡞⛛ ࡽࡐࡡῺᗐࢅ୕ࡅࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡀࡂ㸝ỀⵠẴࡡฆ⤎࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ኬẴࢅຊ⇍ࡊ࡙㍇ࡂࡌࡾ㸞ࠊฆ ⤎ࡊࡼ୕᪴ࡌࡾ✭ẴምࡡῺᗐንࡢ₮᩷⇍໖㒼࡛ࡣࡿࡾࡵࡡ࡞ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉỀࢅ㜾 Ề࡛ࡊ࡙ⴘ࡛ࡊࡒ࠵࡛ୖ㜾ࡌࡾ✭ẴምࡡῺᗐንࡷࠉ୕᪴୯࡚ࡵฆ⤎㐅⾔ࡊ࠷ሔྙࡡῺᗐ ንࡢஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼࡞㎾࠷ࡵࡡ࡞ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉ⌟ᐁࡡኬẴࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢࠉ₮᩷⇍ ࡛ஜ⇩᩷⇍ࡡ୯㛣࡛ࡾࠊ ௫࡞ᨲᑏ࡞ࡀࡂណ࡚ࡡỀⵠẴࡷࡡẴమᠺฦ࢙࣭࣬ࣞࢯࣜࡡ㔖ྜྷࡋ࡛ࡌࡿࡣࠉᆀ⌣ฝ ࡌᨲᑏࡡ⾪Ὼᗐ࡛ࡐࡡῺᗐࢅࡵࡗ㧏ࡈᅖᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ࡲ࡙ࡻ࠷ࠊࡐࡡ᮪௲࡚ஜ⇩ᑊὮࡡ ሔྙ࡛₮ᑊὮࡡሔྙࢅẒ㍉ࡌࡿࡣࠉᆀ୕ẴῺࡢ₮ᑊὮࡡሔྙࡡ࠹ࡂࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ ᨲᑏ࡞ࡀࡂ∸㈻ࡡ㔖ንࡌࡿࡣࠉ⾪Ὼᗐࢅᣚࡗ㧏ࡈࡢንࡊ࠹ࡾࠊῺᗐ໖㒼ᅖᏽࡈࡿ࡙ ࠷࡙ࡵࠉᆀ୕ẴῺᑊὮࡓࡄ࡚Ửࡱࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ 35 ㆗ㄵ 20. ỀⵠẴࡡ⃨ᗐንິࡢኬࡀ࠷ࠊ30 Υ࡚㣤ỀⵠẴࡢ 42000 ppmࠉ10Υ࡚ࡢࠉ12000 ppmࠉ 0Υ࡚ࡢࠉ6000 ppm ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉẴῺୖࡾ࡛ᆀ⾪࠾ࡼᨲᑏࡈࡿࡾ㐪㉝አ⥲ࡢኬẴ ࢅ㏳㐛ࡊ࡙Ꮻᏼ࡞ᨲฝࡈࡿ᪾ࡂࡾ㸝ᨲᑏ෫༴㸞ࠊᐨ෫ࡌࡾ࡛ࡱࡌࡱࡌᐨࡂࡾ㸝㏣ࡵḿࡊ ࠷㸞ࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡞Ὼᬦ࢝ࢪࡡᙲࡢỀⵠẴ࡚࠵ࡾࠊCO2 100 ppm ቌ࠻ࡒ࡛ࡆࢀ࡚ࠉࡆࡡỀ ⵠẴῺᗐࡡንິᖕࡡ⠂ᅑහ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉῺᬦ࢝ࢪ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡡỀⵠẴ࡞ࡻࡾಕῺຝᯕࢅኬࡀࡂಞḿ ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡢࡼ࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡῺᐄຝᯕࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌ᭩ኬࡡさᅄỀⵠẴ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢḿࡊ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉᾇࡡ࠵ࡾࡵ ࡛࡚ࡢࠉኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴ㔖ࡢ㣤ỀⵠẴ㔖࡞Ẓౚࡊ࡙ቌຊࡌࡾ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࡡ࡚ࠉῺᗐ࡞ᑊ ࡊ࡙ỀⵠẴࡡῺᐄຝᯕḿࡡࣆ࣭ࢺࣁࢴࢠ࡞ࡾࡆ࡛ࡵᜅࡼࡂḿࡊ࠷ࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉῺᬦῼ ࡞⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾ 3 ḗඔẴು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉỀⵠẴ࡞ࡻࡾ㉝አ⥲ࡡྺ࣬ᑏฝࡢ㓗⅛⣪➴ ࡛ྜྷᵕ࡞ᙔ↓⩻៎ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉỀⵠẴࡢࡌ࡙ࡡἴ㛏ࡡ㉝አ⥲ࢅᙁࡂྺ࣬ᑏฝࡌࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ㓗⅛⣪ࠉ ࣒ࢰࣤࠉN2OࠉࣆࣞࣤࡢࠉỀⵠẴࡡྺࡡᘽ࠷ἴ㛏ᖈࡡୌ㒂ࢅᙁࡂྺ࣬ᑏฝࡌࡾࠊࡐࡡ ྺἴ㛏ᖈࡡ㉝አ⥲࡞ࡻࡾ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡡࡷࡽ࡛ࡽ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㝀ࡽࡢࠉỀⵠẴࡻࡽࡵ㔔さ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉᠺᒒᅥ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉỀⵠẴ㔖㟸ᖏ࡞ᑚࡈ࠷ࡒࡴࠉ㉝አ⥲ࡡᨲᑏ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉỀⵠẴࡻ ࡽࡵ㓗⅛⣪ࡡ᪁㔔さᙲࢅᯕࡒࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᮇ✇ࡡࠔࡢࡋࡴ࡞ࠕ࡚⣺ࡊࡒࣇࣞࢡ “Real Climate” ࡚ࡡ㆗ㄵ 㸝Schmidt 2005㸞 ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉኬẴࡡῺᐄຝᯕධమ࡞༥ࡴࡾỀⵠẴࡡᐞࡢࠉ 㞴࡞ࡻࡾྺࡡຝᯕࡵྱࡴ 80ࠤ90㸚⛤ᗐ࡚ࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡡᐞࡢ 20ࠤ30㸚࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ྺᖈࡡ 㔔ࡽࡡၡ㢗࠵ࡾࡡ࡚⛸ῺᐄຝᯕẴమࡡᐞᗐࡡࡢ 100㸚࡞ࡼ࠷㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉGISS GCM ࡡ୯ࡡᨲᑏࣈࣞࢡ࣑ࣚ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᚋࡼࡿࡒᩐೋ࡚࠵ࡾࠊSchmidt㸝2005㸞ࡢࡆࡡᩐೋࡢ Ramanathan and Coakley㸝1978㸞ࡡ㕼├ 1 ḗඔ࣓ࢸࣜࡡゝ⟤⤎ᯕ࡛ࡵࡻࡂᑊᚺࡌࡾ࡛㏑࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡆࡆ࡚ࠉᆀ⌣ኬẴධమࡡῺᐄຝᯕᆀ⾪ẴῺ࡚ 33Υࡡ୕᪴࡞┞ᙔࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉẒౚゝ⟤ࡌࡿ ࡣ㓗⅛⣪ࡡᐞࡢῺᗐ࡞├ࡊ࡙ 7ࠤ10Υ࡛フ౮࡚ࡀࡾࠊࡆ࠹ࡊࡒぜ✒ࡽ࠾ࡼࠉࡒ࡛࠻Ềⵠ Ẵ᭩ࡵ㔔さῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࡵࠉ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐ⏐ᴏ㠁௧๑࡛Ẓ 2 ಶࠉ3 ಶ࡛ ࡿࡣẴು࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ࠻࠹ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ༎ฦ࡞⣙ᚋ࡚ࡀࡾ࡚࠵ࢀ࠹ࠊ ࠽ࠉỀⵠẴࡢ㏳ᖏࠉᨲᑏᙁโງࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌࠔெⅥ㉫″ࠕῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡞ྱࡴࡼࡿ࠷ࠉ ࡆࡿࡢࠉኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴ㔖ࢅỬࡴࡾさᅄ࠽ࡵ࡞ኬẴ࡛ᾇὊ࠽ࡻࡦ㝛㟻࡛ࡡ㛣ࡡஹᥦ㸝ⵠⓆ࣬ 㜾Ề㸞࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡱࡒࠉኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴࡡᖲᆍᅹ㛣㸝ኬẴ୯ࡡᏋᅹ㔖ࢅஹᥦ㏷ᗐ࡚ࡖࡒࡵ ࡡ㸞⣑ 10 ࡛▯࠷࠾ࡼ࡚࠵ࡽࠉỬࡊ࡙ỀⵠẴࡡ㔔さᛮぜⴘ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡒࡴ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ 36 ㆗ㄵ 21. 㓗⅛⣪ࡢᆀ⌣ᨲᑏࡡ㉝አ⥲ࢅࡆࡿ௧୕ྺࡊ࠷ࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࡈࡼࡾῺᐄຝᯕ ࢅᣚࡒ࠷㸝ờ⏛ 2006, p.28-29㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᅒ 13 ࡢࠉ㕼├᪁ྡྷࡡኬẴධᒒ࡞┞ᙔࡌࡾ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ 1 ᅂࡡྺ࡞ࡻࡾᨲᑏ㏩㐛⋙ࢅ ἴ㛏ื࡞ゝ⟤ࡊࡒࡵࡡ࡚ࠉᶋ㍂ࡢἴᩐ㸝ୖ㸰ἴ㛏ࡡ㏣ᩐ㸞ࡱࡒࡢἴ㛏㸝୕㸞ࠉ⦢㍂ࡢ㏩㐛⋙࡚ ࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ☔࠾࡞ἴᩐ 630 ࠾ࡼ 700/cm ㎾࡚ࡢྺ㣤ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ᅒ 13 㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾᨲᑏ㏩㐛⋙ ฝᡜ㸯Petty㸝2004㸞 ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆࡡᅒ 13 ࡢ㓗⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ㉝አ⥲ࡡᑏฝࢅࢭ࡛ࣞࡊ࡙ࠉྺࡡຝᯕࡡࡲࢅ⾪ࡊ ࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊᐁ㝷ࡡኬẴ࡚ࡢࠉᆀ⾪㟻࠾ࡼᑏฝࡈࡿࡒ㉝አ⥲ࡢኬẴ୯ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡞ࡻࡾ ྺ࣬ᑏฝࢅ⧖ࡽ㏁ࡊ࡙ኬẴ୕❻࡞㐡ࡌࡾࠊኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐቌຊࡌࡾ࡛ࠉࡆࡡྺ ࣬ᑏฝࡡᖲᆍᅂᩐቌຊࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽࠉῺᐄຝᯕࡢቌຊࡌࡾࠊᚉࡖ࡙ࠉኬẴධᒒ࡞ࡻࡾୌ ᅂࡡྺ㣤ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙ࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡆࡿ௧୕ቌຊࡊ࡙ࡵῺᐄຝᯕࡢቌຊࡊ ࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡࡢㄏࡽ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡱࡒࠉᅒ 13 ࡚ἴᩐ 570 ࠾ࡼ 620/cm ㎾࡛ 710 ࠾ࡼ 760/cm ㎾ࡡ㯦ࡂぜ࠻ࡾ࡛ࡆࢀࡢࠉ㏩ 㐛⋙ኬࡀ࠷ೋ࡛ᑚࡈ࠷ೋࡡ㛣ࢅ⾔ࡖࡒࡽᮮࡒࡽࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉྺ⥲ࡡᏋᅹࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊẴమ ฦᏄࡡྺ⥲ࡢࠉᅸງຝᯕ࡛ࢺࢴࣈ࣭ࣚຝᯕ࡛ࡣࡿࡾ 2 ࡗࡡຝᯕ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ἴᩐ᪁ྡྷ࡞ᖕࢅᣚ ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ≁࡞ࠉྺ⥲ࡡ୯ᚨ࡚ྺ㣤ࡊ࡙ࡵࠉࡈࡼ࡞Ẵమ⃨ᗐቌ࠻ࡾ࡛ࠉྺ⥲ࡡᖕ ᗀࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽྺ㔖ቌຊࡌࡾࡆ࡛ฦ࠾ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ᰐ⏛ 1999㸰ఌ⏛ 1982㸰Petty 2004㸞ࠊ ᚉࡖ࡙ࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡἴ㛏ᖈ࡚ࡢኬẴධᒒࡡ㸦ᅂࡡྺࡈ࠻ࡵᮅ㣤࡚࠵ࡽࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡡቌຊ࡞ ࡻࡖ࡙ྺ㔖ቌຊࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࡈࡼ࡞⮤᪺࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 37 4. Ὼᬦၡ㢗ࡡඁ㡨న ࠔῺᬦၡ㢗ࡻࡽࡵ㔔さၡ㢗࠵ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ᠔Ὤ⏕࠷ࡾᖏዎྀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ☔࠾࡞ࠉ ୠࡡ୯࡞ࡢᵕࠍၡ㢗⩄࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡿࡼࡡ㛣࡚ࡡඁ㡨నࡄࡢᐖ᪾࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊᐁ㝷࡞㡨న ࡄࢅ⾔࠹ሔྙࡵࠉெⓏ౮ೋふථࡾࡆ࡛ࡢྫྷࡴ࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉῺᬦࡷᆀ⌣⛁Ꮥ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ ᇱᮇⓏᐁࡷࡡၡ㢗࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿ࢅ↋っࡊࡒࡻ࠹㆗ㄵࡢࠉ⤎ᑻࡢࠉῺᬦᑊ➿ࡡ ᘇࡣࡊࢅຐ㛏ࡊࠉ㈈௴㏠ࡿࡡཾᐁ࡛ࡾࠊᮇ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡᘿ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙රమⓏཬㄵࢅ⾔ ࡖ࡙࠷ࡂࠊ ㆗ㄵ 22. ࠔெ㢦♣ఌ࡞࡛ࡖ࡙ᐨ෫ࡡ᪁ၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾࠕ 㸝ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞 ࠔ⏍∸࡞࡛ࡖ࡙ࡢࡡᆀ⌣ ࡢ෫ࡒࡂࠉࡵ࠹ᑛࡊᬦ࠾ࡂࡖࡒ᪁Ⰳ࠷࡛࠷࠹ධమⓏലྡྷ࠵ࡾࠕ㸝Ṃ⏛ 2007, p.153㸞 ࠊ 䠎ཬㄵ䠐 ᐨ෫ࡢࡵࡊ㉫ࡆࡿࡣ☔࠾࡞ெ㢦࡞࡛ࡖ࡙㔔ኬၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᚃ⣑Ⓤᖳࡡ㛣࡞㉫ ࡆࡾྊ⬗ᛮࡢῺᬦ࡞Ẓ࡙ࡍࡖ࡛࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ70 ᖳ࡞ゕࢂࡿࡒ㛏ᐨ෫ㄕࡢ ࡞ࠉ1 ᖳ࠾ࡼ 10 ᖳࡂࡼ࠷ࡡ࿔ᖈࡡ㛣ể࠾ࡼểࡡ⛛⾔ࡡࡆ࡛ࢅᛍ㢄࡞࠽࠷࡙⾔ࢂ ࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ㸝ප㌹㌮㐠࡛⮤㌹㍂ࡡንࡡྊ⬗ᛮ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ᭩᩺ࡡ᥆ᏽ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛㸞⣑ 2 ᖳᚃ࡞㉫ ࡆࡾ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾểࡡᮮ5࡛ࠉ100 ᖳ௧හࡡῺᬦ࡛ࡔࡼࢅᏽࡊ࡙ᑑᮮ࡞ങ࠻ࡾࡀ࠾ ࡢ᪺ࡼ࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉῺᬦ࡞ࡻࡾࢤࢪࢹ࡛࣊ࢾࣆࢴࢹࡢࠉུ─⩽࡛⿍ᐐ⩽ࡐࡿࡑࡿㄙ ࡡ࠾࡛࠷࠹පᖲᛮࡡふⅤ࠾ࡼ༎ฦ࡞᳠ゞࡈࡿࡾࡀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࠽ࠉ⌟ᅹࡡࡻ࠹᛬⃥ 㓗⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴⤾ࡄࡣࠉ⮤↓⌟㇗࡚࠵ࡾể㸢㛣ểࢦࢠࣜ࡞ࡵరࡼ࠾ࡡ≤࠷⏍ ࡋࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡾ᪁⮤↓࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࠽ࠉῺᬦ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ⛁ᏕⓏ⌦よࡢ☔࠾࡞㐅ࢆࡓ(⢥ᗐ୕ࡖ ࡒ)ࡆ࡛ࢅ⌦よࡌࡾ࡞ࡢ Weart㸝2003㸞ཤ⩻࡞ࡾࠊ ㆗ㄵ23. ⅛㖌ࡡ㛚ᒜጙࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ⅛㖌ࡢ࠷ࡖࡒࢆ㛚ᒜࡊࡒࡼࠉᆔ㐠ࡂࡍࡿ࡙ᅂᚗ࡚ࡀ ࠷㸝ᵌ⏛2006㸞ࠊ 䠎ཬㄵ䠐 ⅛㖌ࡢࠉࢤࢪࢹ❿ணງࡷኬẴỗ㜭Ḿࡡᵕࠍ⌦⏜࡚㛚ᒜࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡒࡊ࠾࡞ࠉ㛚ᒜ ᚃࡡ්㛜ࡢᐖ᪾࡚ࡢࡂࠉⴘ┑ࡷ࢝ࢪ⇷Ⓠᨶ㉫ࡆࡾྊ⬗ᛮࡵ㧏ࡂࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᇱᮇⓏ࡞ ࡢᢇ⾙ࡡၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉ්㛜࡞㝷ࡊ࡙Ꮽධ⟮⌦࡞ࢤࢪࢹࢅࡿࡓࡄ࠾ࡄࡾ࠾࡛࠷࠹⤊ῥⓏ ၡ㢗࡚ࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ㛚ᒜᚃ࡞ၡ㢗ࡂ්㛜ࡊࡒᐁౚࡢ࠵ࡽࠉᅂᚗ࡚ࡀ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡢ࠷6ࠊ 5 ౚ࠻ࡣࠉBerger and Loutre㸝2002㸞ࠊ 6 ⅛㖌ᨶࡢࠉ㛚ᒜ㛭౿࠵ࡾሔྙࡵ㛭౿࠷ሔྙࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ☔࠾࡞ࠉୠ⏲୯࡚㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ⅛㖌ᨶ㸝᥆ᏽ Ṓஷ⩽ᖳ㛣 1 ெ௧୕㸞ࡡၡ㢗ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞็࡚࠵ࡽ⬒ࡳၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡐࡡᑊ➿࡛ࡊ࡙Ὼᬦ ᑊ➿ࢅḾࡴࡾࡆ࡛᭯ຝ࠾࠹࠾ࡢၡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ 38 ㆗ㄵ 24. ᵕࠍୠ⏲Ⓩၡ㢗ࡡ୯࡚ࠉẴುንິࡡඁ㡨నࡢᚪࡍࡊࡵ㧏ࡂࡢ࠷ࠊࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࡚ࡢࠉẴುንິ᭩ࡡඁ㡨న࡚࠵ࡖࡒ㸝Lomborg 2005㸰Crighton 2007㸞ࠊ 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 2004 ᖳ 5 ᭮࡞ࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࡞࡙ࢸ࣏࣭ࣤࢠࡡ⤣ゝᏕ⩽࡚࠵ࡾࣄࣙࣜࣤ࣬ࣞࣤ࣍ࣜࢡᐍ ࡊࡒఌ㆗࡚ࡡࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡఌ㆗࡚ࡢࠉ ெ㢦├㟻ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠔ10 ࡡၡ㢗ࠕࢅฝࡊࠉࢿ࣭࣊ࣜ⤊ῥᏕ㈳ུ㈳⩽ 4 ྞࢅྱࡳ⤊ῥᏕ⩽ 8 ெ ࠉ⥪㢘 500 ൦ࢺࣜࢅࡆࡡ 10 ௲ࡡၡ㢗࡞㒼ฦࡌࡾࡒࡴࡡඁ㡨న࡛㔘㢘ࢅỬࡴࡒࠊඁ㡨న ࡡ㧏࠾ࡖࡒࡡࡢࠉHIV ၡ㢗ࠉ㣒㣱ၡ㢗ࠉ㈘᪾⮤⏜ࠉ࣏ࣚࣛᑊ➿ࡡ㡨࡚࠵ࡽࠉῺᬦၡ㢗ࡢ ᭩ୖన࡚㒼ฦ㢘ࡢࢭ࡚ࣞ࠵ࡖࡒࠊࡆࡡ⤎ᯕࡢῺᬦ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ᠔ㄵ⩽ࢅኬ࠷࡞ඔẴࡘࡄࠉࢤ࣋ ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪࡢᙴࡼ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡊࡣࡊࡣᘤ⏕ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡆࡡࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࡞ࡢࠉ࡞ 1㸞㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࡡၡ㢗ࠉ2㸞ၡ㢗ࡡ㐽ࡦ᪁ࠉ ࡡ 2 ࡗࡡၡ㢗࠵ࡾ㸝ெ㐽ࡡၡ㢗ࡷ㌱㈕࡛Ẓ㍉ࡊ࡙㔘㢘ᑚࡈ࠷࡛࠷࠹ၡ㢗ࡵ࠵ࡾࡆ ࡆ࡚ࡢ┤␆ࡌࡾ㸞ࠊ➠ 1 ࡡ㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࡡၡ㢗ࡢࠉᘤ⋙ࡷ㈄ᖨ౮ೋࡡၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾ࡛ྜྷ࡞ࠉ ཋᅄࡵᙫ㡢ࡵ┞㛭㛭౿ࡵ々㞟ၡ㢗⩄࡞ᑊࡊ࡙㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࢅ⾔࠹ࡆ࡛࡞ᯕࡒࡊ࡙ណ࠵ ࡾࡡࡓࢀ࠹࠾࡛࠷࠹᰷ᮇⓏၡ㢗࡚ࡵ࠵ࡾ㸝⎌ሾၡ㢗࡞ᑊࡊ࡙㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࢅ⾔࠹ࡆ࡛ࡡ ၡ㢗Ⅴ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉౚ࠻ࡣ Ackerman and Heinzerling 2005 ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻ㸞ࠊ➠ 2 ࡡၡ㢗ࡓࠉ㈃ ᅏၡ㢗ࡷ AIDS ࡛Ẵುንິၡ㢗ࢅ୩࡙ࠉᐁ㈻Ⓩ࡞ࡔࡼ࠾ୌࡗࡓࡄࢅ㐽࡛ၡࢂࡿࡿࡣࠉ㸝3 ⛂㛣࡞ୌெᰜ㣬㊂࡚Ṓࢆ࡚࠷ࡾ࡛࠷࠹⌟≟ࢅኣᑛࡽ࡛ࡵ▩ࡖ࡙࠷ࡿࡣ㸞㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࢅ㐽ࡩ ெࡡ᪁ኣࡂࡾࡡࡢ⌦よ࡚ࡀࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉౚ࠻ࡣࠉ㈃ᅏ࡛Ẵುንິࡢࠉ㛣Ⓩࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡷྊ㏣ᛮධࡂ␏ࡾၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡽࠉ ࠾ࡗ࠽ப࠷࡞ᤴ㝎ࡌࡾ㸝㔔ࡽ࠷㸞ၡ㢗࡚ࡵ࠷ࠊ㏣࡞ࠉኣࡂࡡሔྙࠉẴುንິᑊ➿ࢅᐁ ᪃ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉኬẴỗᑊ➿ࡷ㈃ᅏよᾐ࡞ኬࡀࡂ㈁⊡ࡌࡾ㸝ౚ㸯▴⅛ࡷິ∸ࡡᤴἝ∸ࢅ⇖ᩩ࡛ ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ↋㞹ᆀᇡࡡ්⏍ྊ⬗࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟࡞ࡻࡾ㞹ࠊኣࡂࡡ⤊ῥᏕ⩽ࡷ SF షᐓࡢࠉࡆࡡ┞ ப㛭౿࡞㛭ࡌࡾ▩ㆉஇࡊ࠷ࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾ㸞ࠊ ࠔ㈃ᅏၡ㢗࠾Ẵುንິ࠾ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡻ࠹ၡ㢗スᏽࡢࠉゕ࠷ᥦ࠻ࡿࡣࠔெ㛣࡞࡛ࡖ࡙Ề࡛㣏 ∸ࡢࡔࡼኬ࠾ࠕ࡛࠷࠹↋ណၡ࠷࡞జ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊゕ࠹ࡱ࡚ࡵࡂࠉኣࡂ ࡡ㣏∸ࡢỀฦࢅྱࢆ࡚࠽ࡽࠉ➽࠻ࡢࠔ୦᪁࡛ࡵ㟸ᖏ࡞ኬࠕ࡚ࡊ࠾࠵ࡽ࠻࠷ࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉᐁ 㝷࡞⚶ࡒࡔ࡛ࡾ⾔ິࡢࠉ㸝⮤ฦࡒࡔࡡ㐗⮾㈕ࢅวࡽࡗࡴࡾࡊ࡙㸞ࢆ࡛࠾୦᪁ࡡࡒ ࡴ࡞࠽㔘ࢅ⏕ណࡌࡾ࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡࡓ࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ ࠔ㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࡡ᪁ኬࠕ࡛࠷࠹ㄵἪࡢࠉ㏭୕ᅗࡡ㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࡷⅇᐐᨾຐὩິࡡ႖⥥ࡡၡ㢗 ࢅᣚࡔฝࡌࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉ࠵ࡼࡹࡾࡵࡡࡡ㔔さᛮࢅ㈐ࡴࡾࡆ࡛ྊ⬗ㄵἪ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ ࡒ࡛࠻ࡣࠉࣞࣤ࣍ࣜࢡࡡᘿࢅᨥᣚࡌࡾ⡷ᅗࡡಕᏬⓏࢨࣤࢠࢰࣤࢠࡡኣࡂࡢࠉ㏭୕ᅗ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ ᾇአᥴຐࡡᚪさᛮࢅ✒ᴗⓏ࡞ࡢᨥᣚࡊ࡙࠷࠷ࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉᘋスⓏ㆗ㄵ࡛࠷࠹ࡻࡽࡵࠉẴು ንິၡ㢗ࡡ㔔さᛮࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡒࡴࡡࠔ᪁౼ࠕ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉ㏭୕ᅗࡡ㈃ᅏၡ㢗ୌⓏ࡞ฺ⏕ࡈࡿ࡙ ࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ 8 ெࡡࠔ㈶⩽ࠕࡢධ࡙⤊ῥᏕ⩽࡚࠵ࡽࠉఌ㆗ࡡධమാࢅࡱ࡛ࡴࡒᮇ͆Global Crises, Global 39 Solutions㸝Lomborg 2005㸞” ࡡ᭩ᚃ࡞࠵ࡾ 8 ெࡡẴುንິ࡞㛭ࡌࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ㈕ ⏕౼─ฦᯊனࠍ௧๑࡞ࠉῺᬦၡ㢗࡞ᑊࡌࡾ▩ぜࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾࠹࠾ၡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ ࠔ 㸝෫༴ຝᯕࢅᣚࡗ㸞࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࢅ✭୯࡞ᩋᕱࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ᳠ゞࡌࡀࠊࡐࡵࡐࡵᠻࠍࡻࡽࡵࣛ ࢴࢲ࡚࠵ࡾᑑᮮୠࡡࡒࡴ࡞⚶ࡒࡔ㈕⏕ࢅᡮ࠹ࡡࡢࢻࣤࢬࣤࢪࡓࠕ㸝ཤຊ⩽ࡡୌெ࡚࠵ࡾ Thomas Schelling ࡞ࡻࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹ㸯Lomborg 2005, p.627㸞ࡷࠔ100 ᖳᚃࡡெ㛣ࡢࠉ⌟ᅹࡡெ㛣ࡻ ࡽࡵ㈶࠷࠾ࡼᑊ➿ࢅ㐔ࡼࡎ࡙ࡵၡ㢗࠷ࠕ 㸝ྜྷࡋࡂཤຊ⩽ࡡୌெ࡚࠵ࡾ Vernon Smith ࡞ࡻࡾࢤ ࣒ࣤࢹ㸯 Lomborg 2005, p.635㸞࡛࠷ࡖࡒࠉࢦ࢙ࣤࢪࡡ㟻࠾ࡼࡵ⌦Ⓩ㟻࠾ࡼࡵ⩇࠵ࡾ ࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉẴುንິ᭩ୖన࡞ࡖࡒ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙ࠔరࡵࡊࡂ࡙ࡵࡻ࠷ࠕ࡛よ㔐ࡌࡾ ࡆ࡛ࡢࠉࡒࡓࡡၡ㢗ᘇࡣࡊ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ᠔Ὤࡡ⾙୯࡞ࡢࡱࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡼ࠷ࠊ ࡔࡲ࡞ࠉ2005 ᖳ 1 ᭮ࢪࢪ࡚ࡡࢱ࣍ࢪఌ㆗ཤຊ⩽ࡡୠ⏲㔔さၡ㢗ඁ㡨నࡄᢖ⚂㸝14 ࡡၡ㢗࠾ࡼࢹࢴࣈ 6 ࢅ㐽ࡩ࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡ㸞ࡡ⤎ᯕࡢࠉ୕࠾ࡼ㡨࡞㈃ᅏよᾐࠉපᖲࢡ࣭ࣞࣁࣛࢭ ࣭ࢨࣘࣤࠉẴುንິࠉᩅ⫩ࠉ୯᮶ࠉࢡࣞࣁ࣭ࣜ࢝ࣁࢻࣤࢪ࡚࠵ࡖࡒࠊࡱࡒࠉ2007 ᖳ 1 ᭮ࡡࢱ࣍ ࢪఌ㆗࡚ࡡཤຊ⩽ᢖ⚂࡚ࡢࠉẴುንິၡ㢗ࡢࠔୠ⏲࡞࠻ࡾᙫ㡢ኬࡀ࠷ࠕ࡛ࡡᅂ➽ 38㸚ࠉ ࠔᅗ㝷♣ఌࡡᑊᚺ༎ฦࠕ࡛ࡡ➽࠻ 55㸚࡚ࠉࡡ 10 㡧┘ࢅᢒ࠻࡙᭩ࡵኣ࠾ࡖࡒࠊ ㆗ㄵ 25. ࠔ㛏Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᙔ๎΅᪁ᘟࠉ▯࣬୯Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᚺ᪁ᘟࠉ࡛࠷࠹ࡡ⌟ᐁⓏࠕ 㸝 ⸠ 2006, p.42㸞 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍ⸠㸝2006㸞࡚ࡢࠉࠔ▯ࠕࠔ୯ࠕࠔ㛏ࠕࠔ♣ఌࡡᣚ⤾ᛮࠕࠔ⌟ᐁⓏࠕࠔᆀᇡⓏࠕࠔᑻᡜ Ⓩࠕ ࠔኣᵕᛮࠕ ࠔ࣏ࢠࣞࠕ ࠔ࣐ࢠࣞࠕ ࠔ㐲ᙔࠕࡡᫍゕⴝ༎ฦㄕ᪺ࡡ࠷ࡱࡱ࡞ኣ⏕ࡈ ࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉㄵ⌦Ⓩ㆗ㄵࡷཬッᅏ㞬ᩝ❮࡛ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ▯ࡷ୯࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ రᖳ⛤ᗐࢅᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࠾ࠊ ࠔ♣ఌࡡᣚ⤾ᛮࠕ࡛ࡢరࡡ࠾ࠊ ࠔ⌟ᐁⓏࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᴣᛍࡢふⓏ ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡓࡿࡵ⮤ฦࡡᘿࡢࠔ⌟ᐁⓏࠕ࡛⩻࠻࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࡓࢀ࠹࠾ࠊ ࡱࡒࠉ⸠㸝2006㸞ゕ࠹ࠔ㛏Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᙔ๎΅᪁ᘟࠉ▯࣬୯Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᚺ᪁ᘟࠉ࡛࠷ ࠹ࡡ⌟ᐁⓏࠕ 㸝p.42 ୕࠾ࡼ 20 ⾔┘㸞ࡢࠉᜅࡼࡂࠔ⌟Ⅴ࡚ࡢࠉᑻᡜⓏ㐲ᚺ➿ࢅ⾔࠹ࡀ࡚ ࠵ࡖ࡙Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡡᤴฝ๎΅ࡡࡻ࠹⥾➿ࡢさ࡚࠵ࡾࠕ࡛よ㔐ࡊ࠹ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ㐲ᚺ➿ ࡢࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾᑊ⒢Ἢ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⥾➿ࡢࠉཋᅄ∸㈻ࢅཱིࡽ㝎ࡂ᰷ᮇⓏ⒢࡚࠵ࡾࠊ୦⩽ࡢᛮ ㈻ධࡂ␏ࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⩽ᢝୌ࡚ࡢ࠷ࡊࠉࡔࡼ࠾ୌࡗࡓࡄ࡚ࡻ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡ࡚ࡵ ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉᑊ⒢Ἢඁࡈࡿࡾࡡࡢࠉ1㸞ཋᅄ᪺ࠉ2㸞᰷ᮇⓏ⒢ࡡᐁ᪃ᢇ⾙Ⓩ࠵ࡾ ࠷ࡢ⤊ῥⓏ࡞ྊ⬗ࠉࡡࡗࡡሔྙ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ⌟ᅹࠉ☔ᐁᛮࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉῺᬦࡡཋᅄ࡛ࡊ ࡙ࡡ㓗⅛⣪ࡡ㔔さᛮࡢྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉࡐࡡ๎΅ࡵྊ⬗࡛ࡢゕ࠷㞬࠷ࠊ㏣࡞ࠉࠔ๎΅ ࢅ㐔ࡼࡎࡣ㐔ࡼࡎࡾࠉ♣ఌᵋ㏸ࡡ᛬⃥ንࢅఔࢂࡉࡾࢅᚋ࠷ࡻ࠹ኬᖕ๎΅ᚪさ ࡛ࡽࠉ⤊ῥⓏ࡞ࡵࡻࡽኣ㢘ࡡࢤࢪࢹᚪさࠕࠔῺᬦ࡞ࡻࡾ⿍ᐐ㔘㢘Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪᤴฝ๎ ΅ࢤࢪࢹࢅኬᖕ࡞୕ᅂࡾࡒࡴ᪡ࡡ๎΅➿ࡡᐁ᪃⤊ῥྙ⌦Ⓩࠕ࡛࠷࠹⤎ㄵࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ◂✪ 40 ࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ⸠㸝2006㸞ࡢࠉᆀᇡⓏ࣬ᑻᡜⓏ㐲ᚺᨳ➿࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࠔࢤࢪࢹⓏ࡞ฺ᭯ࠕ㸝p.42 ᕞ ṹୖ࠾ࡼ 19 ⾔┘㸞࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾࠊᑊ⒢Ἢ᰷࡛ᮇⓏ⒢ࡡࢤࢪࢹࢅ༟⣟࡞Ẓ㍉ࡌࡾࡡࡢ↋ ណ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠾ࡗᑊ⒢ἪࡡࢤࢪࢹࡵỬࡊ࡙ᑚࡈ࠷ࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ㐲ᚺ➿࡛ࡊ࡙⩻࠻ ࡼࡿࡾላ㜭ᘋス࡚࠵ࡾࠉᮇࡡᾇᓃᆀᇡ࡞ላ㜭ࢅషࡾ㈕⏕ࡢ⣑ 11 ළ࡛ぜ✒ࡵࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ 㸝ᾇ㟻୕᪴ 90 ࢬࣤࢲ࣒࣭ࢹࣜࡡሔྙ㸞 ࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹ࢤࢪࢹᑚࡈ࠷࠾ኬࡀ࠷࠾ࡢ⮤᪺࡚ࡢ ࠷ࠊ⸠㸝2006㸞ࡢࠉ ࠔᑻᡜⓏ♣ఌ࣬⏍ឺ⣌ࡢ々㞟⣌ࠕ 㸝p.41 ྎṹୖ࠾ࡼ 5 ⾔┘㸞࡛ࡵ᭡࠷࡙ ࠷ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉࡆࡆ࡚⏕࠷ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠔ々㞟⣌ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ゕⴝࠔ☔ᐁᛮࠕࡵྜྷ࡞ណࡌࡾࡵ ࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉຝᯕⓏ࡞ᑊ⒢ἪⓏᑊᚺࢅㅦࡋࡾࡡࡢᐖ᪾࡚ࡢࡂࠉࢤࢪࢹࡡḿ☔ゝ⟤ࡵᅏ 㞬ࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉࠔ⌟Ⅴ࡚ࡢࠉᑻᡜⓏ㐲ᚺ➿ࢅ⾔࠹ࡀ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡡᤴฝ๎΅ࡡ ࡻ࠹⥾➿ࡢさ࡚࠵ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ⌟≟࠾ࡼㄵ⌦Ⓩ࡞ᑙ࠾ࡿࡾࡵࡡ࡚ࡢࡂࠉ౮ೋึ᩷ ථࡖࡒ㟸ㄵ⌦Ⓩࢪࢷ࣭ࢹ࣒ࣤࢹ࡚࠵ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ⥾➿ࢅ᪡᛬࡞⾔ࢂ࠷ࡆ࡛ࡢᑊ ➿ࡡ༟⣟㏞ࡽ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⏐ἔᅗࡷ▴⇖ᩩᴏ⏲ࠉࡐࡊ࡙Ὼᬦၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾຊᐐ⩽࡛⩻࠻ࡼ ࡿࡾୌெ࠵ࡒࡽࡡᤴฝ㔖ኣ࠷ெࠍࡡ≁ᏽࡡெࠍࢅฺࡌࡾࡓࡄ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ㆗ㄵ 26.ࠔῺᬦၡ㢗࡛࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ၡ㢗࡛ࡡࢸ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡᚪさࠕ 㸝⸠ 2006, p.41㸞 㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ゕ࠹ࡱ࡚ࡵࡂࠉ㓗⅛⣪ࡡᤴฝ๎΅ᑊ➿ࡡኣࡂࡢࠉ┤࢙ࢾࡷ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ኣᵕࢅಀࡌࡵ ࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟Ꮽධಕ㝸ࡡᙁ࡞ࡗࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ㏣ࡵࡱࡒ↓ࡽ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࠽ப࠷ḿࡡ┞ 㛭㛭౿࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉ࠾ࡗࠉ୦⩽࡛ࡵ᥆㐅ࡌࡾࡡ㔔さ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉḗⓏຝᯕ࡛ࡊ࡙࠽ ப࠷ࡡ㛭౿ᛮࢅ㔔っࡊ࡙ࠉ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡࢅ⩻៎ࡌࡾࡡࡢᙔ↓࡛࠷࠻ࡾࠊࢸ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡᚪさ ࡛࠷࠹ࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉࡔࡼ࠾ࢅ㔔さ࡛⩻࠻࡙࠷࠷ࡆ࡛࡞ࡾࠉ⸠㸝2006㸞࡚ࡢ᪺♟Ⓩ࡞ ᭡࠾ࡿ࡙ࡢ࠷࠷ࠊ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉ౮ೋึ᩷㛭ࢂࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࢸ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡࡡᚪさᛮࡢ ⮤᪺ࡡࡆ࡛࡚ࡢධࡂ࠷ࠊ 㸝ᢰᙔᇮ➱⩽㸯᪺㤮ኑᕖ㸞 41 ᭩ᚃ࡞ ⏐ᴏ㠁௧㜾 1Υ௧୕ࡡẴῺ୕࡚᪴⌀⍒♃ࡢⓉጙࡱࡾ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡌ࡚࡞Ⓣ⌟㇗ࡡ ୠ⏲ⓏኣⓆሒ࿈ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉࡇࡂ᭩㎾Ⓠ⾪ࡈࡿࡒࢬࢨ࢘ࣜㅎᓞ࡚ࡡࣆ࣭ࣜࢺ ㄢᰕ㸝21 ࣧᡜࠉ5 ᖲ᪁࣒࣭ࢹࣜ㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ1998 ᖳࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉ ࡌ࡚࡞⌀⍒♃ࡡ 90㸚Ⓣࡊ࡙㨮㢦ࡵ⃥΅ࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࠊ々ྙⓏཋᅄ࠾ࡼெⅥⓏẴುንࡡᐞ ฦࢅวࡽฝࡌࡆ࡛ࡢᅏ㞬࡚࠵ࡾࠉࡆࡡ⿍ᐐ࡞ࡵ 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞⏍ࡋࡒῺᬦലྡྷ㛭ࢂࡖ ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ2005 ᖳ 12 ᭮࡞ࡢࠉิࡴ࡙ᅗ㏻පᘟ࡞⛛Ằࢅᥴຐࡊࡒ 㧏₳㞬Ằ 100 ெࣁࢽࢵභᅗ࡚Ⓠ⏍ࡊࡒࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉῺᬦࡡ⿍ᐐࡢࡌ࡚࡞⌟ᐁࡡࡵࡡ࡛ ࡖ࡙࠷ࡒࡽࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㎾࠷ᑑᮮ࡞㉫ࡆࡾࡆ࡛ࡈࡿࡾࡵࡡ࡛ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉỬࡊ࡙ 50 ᖳ ᚃࡷ 100 ᖳᚃࡡࡻ࠹㐪࠷ᑑᮮࡡࡆ࡛࡚ࡢ࠷ࠊ ୌ᪁ࠉ2006 ᖳ 3 ᭮ 29 ࡡ࣌࣠ࢹࣀࢪ࡚ࡡオ⩽ఌぜ࡞࡙ࣇࢴࢨࣖ⡷ኬ⤣㡷ࡢࠉῺᬦ ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢヾࡴࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉெⅥⓏ㓗⅛⣪ᤴฝཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ࠹ࡻ࠹Ⓠゕࢅ ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡌࢂࡔࠉ᠔ㄵ⩽࡛ྜྷࡋࡆ࡛ࢅපᘟࡡሔ࡚Ⓠゕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡡࣇࢴࢨࣖኬ⤣㡷࡞ 㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉᙴ࡞ᐁ㈻Ⓩ࡞よ௴ࡈࡿࡒ࣭࢛࣎ࣜ࣬ࢼ࣭ࣜඔ㈀ຸ㛏ᏻ㸝ୠ⏲᭩ኬࡡ࣐ࣜ⢥㘈ఌ♣ ࣜࢤࡡ CEO ࢅ 13 ᖳ㛣ຸࡴࡒ㸞ࡢࠔ⡷ᅗா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡࠾ࡼ㞫⬲ࡊࡒ⌦⏜ࡢࠉῺᬦᑊ➿▴ ⅛࣬▴ἔᴏ⏲ࡡࣇࢴࢨࣖᨳᶊࡡᨥᣚᇱ┑ࡡฺ─࡞⫴ࡂ࡛ኬ⤣㡷࠽ࡻࡦࢲ࢘ࢼ࣭ኬ⤣㡷 ึ᩷ࡊࡒࡒࡴࠕ࡛࠷࠹㉻᪠ࡡⓆゕࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ࢦࢪ࢞ࣤࢺ 2004, p.160㸞ࠊ ࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉῺᬦᑊ➿ࢅ㐔ࡼࡌఴࢅெ㢦ࡢᣚࡒ࠷ࡢࡍࡡ࡞ࠉࢺࣞࢺ࡛ࣞࡊࡒᨳࡷ ฺ─㞗ᅆࠉࡐࡊ࡙ᙴࡼ࡞ណㆉⓏࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ↋ណㆉⓏ࡞᧧ࡼࡿࡒ᠔ㄵ⩽㊂ࢅᘤࡖᘿࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉῺᬦᑊ➿ࢅ㐅ࡴࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉῺᬦ㜭Ḿࡡࡒࡴࡓࡄ࡚ࡢࡂࠉ㈠″ࡡ᭯ຝฺ⏕ࡷ࢙ࢾ ࣭ࣜ࢟Ꮽධಕ㝸࡛࠷࠹ഁ㟻࡚ࡵ㟸ᖏ࡞㔔さណࢅᣚࡗࠊࡊࡒࡖ࡙ࠉ⮤ᕤฺ─ࡓࡄࡡࡒࡴ࡞ Ὼᬦᑊ➿࡞ཬᑊࡌࡾெࠍ࡞㒌ྙࡻࡂࢂࡿࠉῺᬦᑊ➿ࡢᚪさྊḖ࡛࠷࠹♣ఌណㆉࡡ㔂ᠺ ࢅ㜴ࡳ࣍ࢸ࣭ࣇ࣭ࣞࡡࡻ࠹࡞ຝ࠷࡙࠷ࡾ᠔ㄵ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ㸝ࡿࡾ࡛ᛦ࠷ࡗࡗࡵ㸞ୌࡗ ୌࡗ୍ᐺ࡞ཬㄵࢅࡊ࡙࠷࠾ࡠࡣ࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ ㅨ㎙㸯ᮇ✇ࢅ᭡ࡂ࡞ᙔࡒࡖ࡙ࡢࠉᑚಲḿẮࠉ⸠ᖶႌẮ࡞ኣኬࡇ༝ງࢅ㡤ࡀࡱࡊࡒࠊࡆࡆ࡞ វㅨࡡណࢅ⾪ࡊࡱࡌࠊ 42 ཤ⩻ᩝ⊡ Ackerman, Frank and Heinzerling, Lisa㸝2005㸞“Pricing the Priceless: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Health, Safety, and Environmental Protection”. 㸝http://www.progressiveregulation.org/perspectives/costbenefit.cfm㸞 ఌ⏛ົ㸝1982㸞ࠖኬẴ࡛ᨲᑏ㐛⛤ࠗ᮶ாᇸฝ∟, 280 pp. Alpert, P., P. 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