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Video-Game Industry
Recent trend in Japanese Market and
Comparison with US Market
Junjiro Shintaku
(University of Tokyo)
2002/3/26
1
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2002/3/26
Shrink in Japanese Market
Concentration on a Few Major Companies
3 Basic Characteristics
US Game Market
Five Feature in US Market
2
1
Contents Business: Market Size
Market Size in Japan （1999）
Movie
828
Music CD
5,695
VTR contents
2,476
Video Game:
Soft
Video Game:
Hard
4,851
1,189
\ 100,000,000
2002/3/26
3
Hardware: Competition for
De-facto standard
• Xbox -Microsoft
– 2001/11 North America.
– 1.5 million by the end of 2001.
– 2002/2/22 Japan market.
• PS2　Sony
– 2000/3
– Global installed base is 26 million
– Network game service: PlayStation BB
2002/3/26
4
2
Scope of Activities
Software
Distribution
Pub.
Pub.
Dev.
Dev.
Pub.
Dev.
Dev.
Pub.
Dev.
Dev.
Dev.
Dev.
Platform (Hardware)
2002/3/26
5
Generation transition of console machine
600
500
Famicon
S-Famicon
NINTENDO64
MegaDrive
SegSaturn
Dreamcast
Playstation
Playstation 2
# of shipments (0,00
400
300
200
100
0
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2002/3/26
6
3
Soft Market is Shrinking
in Japan
7,000
6,480
6,427
6,603
6,000
5,724
合計
ソフト
ハード
5,000
億円
4,000
4,588
4,887
4,691
5,678
5,600
4,885
4,521
4,364
4,485
4,030
3,978
3,431
5,469
5,408
•Soft
market is 23 times.
4,014
3,754
3,600
3,358
3,000
2,624
•Soft
market is
decreasing.
2,353
2,000
1,906
1,378
1,664
1,360
984
937
2001e
1998
1997
1996
PS2
1995
1993
1992
1991
1990
1994
PS1
0
2000
1,230
2,000
1,718
1999
1,354
1,078
1,000
1,593
•Only hard
market
recover
growth.
出所：メディアクリエイト『テレビゲーム流通白書』各年版
2002/3/26
7
Positive Feedback:
Hardware and Software
• Big installed base in hardware
--many variety of software market
--bigger hard sales
• New hardware had generated bigger
software market.
• But
this feedback cycle collapsed.
2002/3/26
8
4
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Shrink in Japanese Market
Concentration on a Few Major Companies
3 Basic Characteristics
US Game Market
Five Feature in US Market
2002/3/26
9
Many New Entrants
but, High Concentration
• Many software venture entered in game
market
– New hardware stimulate new entrants
– Many birth, many death
– Life time of the venture is getting shorter
• Concentration on big firms
2002/3/26
10
5
Number of Game Soft Firms
300
Famicon
250
S Famicon
Sega Saturn
200
Playstation
all
150
100
50
99
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
19
88
19
87
19
86
19
85
19
84
19
19
19
83
0
資料：アンビット『広技苑2000年春版』毎日コミュニケーションズ。
2002/3/26
11
New Entrants and Exit in Game Software
300
250
# of entrants
# of exit
# of competitors
200
150
100
50
0
# of entrants
# of exit
# of competitors
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
1
2
17
18
17
13
19
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
1
3
20
38
54
64
80
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
32
28
21
21
55
58
75
60
51
49
7
8
16
13
15
26
39
44
66
63
105 125 130 138 178 210 246 262 247 233
資料：アンビット『広技苑2000年春版』毎日コミュニケーションズ。ゲーム機17機種を対象とした。
2002/3/26
12
6
Event History Analysis
累積生存率
Cumulative
survival rate
Kaplan-Meier法
累積生存率曲線：duration
打ち切り変数：censor
群分け変数：e npt
1
Early Entrants
(1985-89)
.8
累積生存率（1）
累積生存率（2）
累積生存率（3）
.6
.4
.2
Middle Entrants
(1990-93)
Late Entrants
(1994-)
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
時間
12
14
16
18
time
2002/3/26
13
販売本数シェア（除携帯ゲーム）
Market
Share in Japan
ゲームソフトメーカーのシェア推移
100%
その他
80%
ナムコ
コナミ
60%
セガ
40%
カプコン
20%
任天堂
0%
ＳＣＥ
1997
1998
1999
資料：メディアクリエイト「ゲーム流通白書」各年版
2002/3/26
スクウエ
ア
14
7
Concentration Ratio
•Concentration ratio is getting higher after 1995.
0.05
上位5社
上位10％
Herfindal Index
0.5
データソー
ス：ファミ
通ベスト
３０
98
0.06
97
0.55
97.5
0.07
96.5
0.6
96
0.08
95.5
0.65
95
0.09
94
0.7
94.5
0.1
93
0.75
93.5
0.11
92
0.8
92.5
集中度
集中度の推移
Herfindal Index
2002/3/26
15
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2002/3/26
Shrink in Japanese Market
Concentration on a Few Major Companies
3 Basic Characteristics
US Game Market
Five Feature in US Market
16
8
Characteristic of Game Software
1) High development cost (big fixed cost)
¥100-200 million (¥3 billion at highest)
Retail price ¥5800-6800
Margin of software firms is ¥2000.
¥2000*100,000=¥200 million
Mass sales is necessary.
2) High risk = low hit ratio
Profitable product is 15-20%
movie：20%, music CD:10%, TV:5%
3) Short lifetime
2002/3/26
17
Low Hit Ratio
万本
0∼
1∼
5∼
10∼
20∼
100∼
2002/3/26
プレイステーション
97年
98年
95
176
(31%)
(41%)
102
157
(33%)
(36%)
38
37
(12%)
(9%)
38
33
(12%)
(8%)
31
29
(10%)
(7%)
7
2
(2%)
(0%)
311
434
24%
15%
セガサターン
97年 98年
98
72
(45%) (45%)
66
54
(30%) (34%)
27
21
(12%) (13%)
18
8
(8%) (5%)
8
5
(4%) (3%)
0
0
(0%) (0%)
217
160
12%
8%
NINTENDO64
97年 98年
10
7
(28%) (28%)
11
8
(31%) (32%)
8
3
(22%) (12%)
3
4
(8%) (16%)
4
3
(11%) (12%)
0
0
(0%) (0%)
36
25
19%
28%
97年
203
(36%)
179
(32%)
73
(13%)
59
(10%)
43
(8%)
7
(1%)
564
19%
84%
77%
合計
ヒット率
ヒット作品の
83%
74%
55%
47%
64%
本数シェア
* メディアクリエイト作成の売上本数より筆者作成。
合計
98年
計
255
458
(41%) (39%)
219
398
(35%) (34%)
61
134
(10%) (11%)
45
104
(7%) (9%)
37
80
(6%) (7%)
2
9
(0%) (1%)
619 1183
14%
16%
71%
74%
18
9
図4-2 売上推移の平均像
Transition
of Sales by Week
100%
14
90%
12
70%
60%
8
50%
各週売上
累積比率
6
40%
30%
4
Cumulative %
Sales 各週売上（万本）
volume (0,000)
80%
10
20%
2
10%
0
0%
1
4
7
10
13
発売後週
16
19
22
# of week after introduction
初 発率
逓 減率
総売 上本数
（万本 ）
観 測週
平均
0. 296
0. 499
4 0. 24 7
標準偏 差
0. 499
0. 162
4 .69 7
1 0.1
最 小値
0. 032
0. 249
3 .68 2
1 5.0
最 大値
0. 716
0. 979
32 7. 37 8
7 2.0
サン プル 数
1 04
1 04
1 04
2 3.7
10 4
注 ） メ デ ィ ク リ エ イ ト 集 計 の 売 上 デ ー タ か ら 、 1997年 と 1 9
98年 発 売 で 1 5週 以 上 の 売 上 デ ー タ が あ る も の を 対 象 と し た 。
2002/3/26
19
図4-5 ヒットタイトルの売上パターンの比較対照
1,000,000
各週売上本数(対数目盛）
Sales volume
Ａ：みんなのＧＯＬＦ（ＳＣＥ）
100,000
Ｂ：ファイナルファンタジー
タクティクス（スクウェア）
10,000
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
発売後週数
# of week
after introduction
Ａ
総売上
158万本
Ｂ
128万本
初発率
8%
53%
逓減率
回帰曲線
-0.725
2
61%
Ｙ = 132715Ｘ
R =0.947
-1.737
2
30%
Ｙ = 678997Ｘ
R =0.995
資料）メディアクリエイト売上データを筆者が加工。
2002/3/26
20
10
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Shrink in Japanese Market
Concentration on a Few Major Companies
3 Basic Characteristics
US Game Market Survey
Five Feature in US Market
2002/3/26
21
Market Size: US > Japan
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
# of Console Hardware Shipment
(000)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1995
2002/3/26
US-Hard
1996
1997
Japan-Hard
1998
US-Soft
Sales of Software (000)
Game Market: Japan vs US
Hard: 1997
Soft: 1999
1999
Japan-Soft
22
11
Sales Volume by Major Region
(Software, 1998)
ゲームソフトの地域別売上（1998年）
35,980
57,118
63,000
PS
8,957
9,580
N64
27,817
0
50,000
100,000
1,000本
North America
Europe
150,000
200,000
Japan
2002/3/26
23
Market Share of Software
Share by sales
PS and N64
PS･N64用ゲームソフトシェア（金額ベース）
（YTD 10/99）
2002/3/26
EA
Nintendo
Sony
その他
Acclaim
THQ
Konami
Infogrames
Namco
Lucas Arts
Eidos
Capcom
Mid
出所: IDG “Multimedia Industry Update” December 1999
24
12
Location of Game Software Firms
Seattle
Bungie
Microsoft
Nintendo of America
Chicago
Jaleco, Midway
Games
NJ
Majesco
NY
Vatical
Boston
Hasbro Int.
Working Designs
New York
Accalaim, GT
Interactive, Simon &
Schuster Interactive,
Take Two
Silicon Valley
3DO, Capcom, Codemaster,
Eidos, Electronic Arts,
Empire Interactive,
Infogrames, Koei, Konami,
LucasArts, Namco,
Natsume, Ripcord, Ubi Soft
Sega of America,SCEA
テキサス州
Dallas
The Gathering of Developers
L.A.
Activision, Atlus, Crave
Entertainment, Disney
Interactive, Fox Int., Havas,
Interplay, Mattel, Novalogic,
SquareEA, Tecmo, THQ, Titus
2002/3/26
North Carolina
Red Storm
Southpeak
Austin
Blue Byte
25
Sales Trend of Top 10 Firms
Top 10 Firms in US
Sales of Nintendo and
Sony are decreasing.
18,000,000
Sales Volume
16,000,000
NINTENDO OF
AMERICA
ELECTRONIC ARTS
14,000,000
12,000,000
6,000,000
SONY COMPUTER
ENT. (SONY)
ACCLAIM
ENTERTAINMENT
MIDWAY
4,000,000
MAJESCO
2,000,000
THQ
10,000,000
8,000,000
0
ACTIVISION
1997
2002/3/26
1998
1999
2000
989 STUDIOS (SONY)
26
13
Exclusive Domestic Markets
• Japan to US
Successful product is limited in
– a few famous product
– Software developed by platform firms
– Software developed by American affiliation
• US to Japan
– No big hit title
• Why?
2002/3/26
27
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2002/3/26
Shrink in Japanese Market
Concentration on a Few Major Companies
Four Basic Characteristics
US Game Market Survey
Five Feature in US Market
28
14
1) Big PC Market
• US PC game market is bigger than Japan.
USソフト市場（1999年）
000s Unit
000 $
3 Console
99,147
3,688
PC Entertainment
59,800
1,363
資料:IDG,"The multimedia Markets in North America and Europe" March 2000
2002/3/26
29
2) Major genre
• Japan -- RPG
• US – Action and Sports 67%
ジャンル別売上本数構成比: PS 1999年
日本市場
27.7%
15.3%
37.0%
20.0%
US市場
19.6%
0%
2002/3/26
20%
アクション
13.6%
24.9%
41.9%
40%
スポーツ
60%
RPG
80%
その他
100%
30
15
3) High concentration ratio in top
developer
• Concentration ratio is high
little lower in US
Top 5
Top 10
Japan (1999)
61.3%
75.3%
US (2000)
52.4%
68.8%
売上本数ベースの企業集中度
2002/3/26
31
4) High concentration in
distribution
• Pressure from big retailer: promotion, price
>> Marketing skill is important
US市場小売集中度
PS Wal-Mart
Best Buy
Toys R Us
Babbage's/Funco
Electronics Boutique
Top 5
1-10/1999 1-9/2000
19%
19%
13%
15%
14%
15%
9%
13%
11%
12%
66%
74%
資料:IDG,"The multimedia Markets in North America and Europe" March 2000
2002/3/26
32
16
5) Longer life
– Sales is almost zero in 20th week in Japan.
– Some title have over one year life in US.
– Ranking in Jan. 2001
RANK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2002/3/2611
TITLE
Int. Date
PSX WWF SMACKDOWN NOV'00
PSX DRIVER 2
NOV'00
PSX TONY HAWKS PRO SEP'00
PSX FINAL FANTASY IX NOV'00
PSX GRAN TURISMO 2 DEC'99
PSX MADDEN NFL 2001 AUG'00
PSX TONY HAWKS PRO SEP'99
PSX TEKKEN 3
APR'98
PSX DRIVER
JUN'99
PSX SPEC OPS
APR'00
PSX SPY RO: Y EAR OF DOCT'00
GENRE
Publisher
WRESTLING
THQ
COMBAT RACING INFOGRAMES
EXTREME SPORTSACTIVISION
HARD-CORE RPGSQUARE EA
ACTION ORIENTE SONY
FOOTBALL
ELECTRONIC A
EXTREME SPORTSACTIVISION
FIGHT/HEAD TO HNAMCO
COMBAT RACING INFOGRAMES
ACTION
TAKE 2 INTERA
PLATFORM/SCRO SONY
33
Japan: Challenge for Online
Game
• Brand new type of game, “online game” is
needed for making new phase of market
growth.
• Established Japanese firms had been
skeptical, cautious.
• But PC and network infrastructure are
establishing in Japan (2001)
• Network capacity of console machine.
• Platform: PC or Console
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34
17
Challenge for Online game
• Online Simulation Game
– Console
– Expansion of packaged software
• MMORPG (Massively Multi-player Online
RPG)
– PC platform
• massive users, communication tool
– Korean co. or JV with Korean and Japan
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18