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米国機械市場2011年以降の見通し
調 査 報 告 シカゴ ༀ࣭ܥ٫ঌા 3122 ාո͈ࣛࡉ̱̞̾̀ͅ! 㧤ᓟඨߦ☨࿖ࡈ࡞࠼ࡄࡢᎿᬺળ㧔㧺㧲㧼㧭㧕ਥߦࠃࠆ⚻ᷣㅢߒߦ㑐ߔࠆળ⼏ ߇ࠪࠞࠧ㇠ᄖߦ߅ߡ㐿ߐࠇߚޕ ᧄળ⼏ߪᲤᐕหᤨᦼߦ㐿ߐࠇߡ߅ࠅޔฦ⼂⠪ࠃࠅᯏ᪾㑐ㅪᏒ႐ߦߟߡߩㅢߒ߇ᛲ 㔺ߐࠇࠆޕ࿁ߩળ⼏ߢߪޔవ⥸ߩ⚻ᷣෂᯏࠍฃߌߚ⪭ߜㄟߺߩᓟޔ࿁ᓳㅜߦࠆਛߦ ߞߡߩߘޔ࿁ᓳߩ⒟ᐲߦߟߡߤߩࠃ߁ߥ⸃߇␜ߐࠇࠆߩ߆ᵈ⋡ߐࠇߚޕ એਅߦޔઍ⊛ߥ⼂⠪ߩ⻠Ṷౝኈࠍ㧞࿁ߦࠊߚࠅ⚫ߔࠆޔ߅ߥޕ࿑ߪߔߴߡળ⼏⾗ ᢱ߆ࠄᒁ↪ߪᚑߒߚ߽ߩߢࠆޕ 㧝㧚ో⥸⊛ߥᯏ᪾Ꮢ႐ߩㅢߒ Eli S. Lustgarten ␠ 㐳 㧔 ESL Consultants ␠ 㧕 ☨ ࿖ GDP ߪ ޔ2011 ᐕ ߦ 2.5% ޔ2012 ᐕ ߦ ߪ 2.7%ᚑ 㐳 ߔ ࠆ ߣ ੍ ᷹ ߐ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ޕ2012 ᐕ ߪ ోߡߩਥⷐ࿖ࠍߪߓ⇇⊛ߦᒁ߈⛯߈ᚑ㐳߇⛯ߊߣߺࠄࠇߡࠆޕᚑ㐳₸߇⋧ኻ⊛ߦᒙ ߊߥࠆ߽ߩߩޔੑ⇟ᐩߦߥࠆߣ߁੍᷹ߪߤߎߦ߽ߥޕᣂ⥝Ꮢ႐߇ోࠍ࠼ߔࠆߩ ߪᓥ᧪ߤ߅ࠅޕ ࿑㧝 ⇇ฦ࿖ߩ⚻ᷣᚑ㐳੍᷹ 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 IMF ޔLongbow Research ― 20 ― 調査報告 シカゴ 2009 ᐕ ߩ ਇ ᴫ ߆ ࠄ ☨ ࿖ ⚻ ᷣ ࠍ ਥ ዉ ߒ ߡ ߈ ߚ ߩ ߪ ޔㅧ ᬺ ⽷ ᧄ ⾗ ߦ ․ޔᏒ ႐ ߢ ࠆ ᧄ ⾗ޕ ᡰ ߪ 2011 ᐕ ߦ ߪ 7.1㧑 Ⴧ ޔ2012 ᐕ ߪ 7.9㧑 Ⴧ ߣ ᡷ ༀ ߒ ⛯ ߌ ࠆ ߣ ᦼ ᓙ ߐ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ߩ ߎ ޕᚑ 㐳ߩ߶ߣࠎߤ߇⸳ᛩ⾗ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩޕㅧᬺߪోޔ⊛ߥ⚻ᷣᚑ㐳ߩਛߢ߽ஜోߥࠢ࠲ ߩ ৻ ߟ ߢ ࠅ ޔ2011 ᐕ ߪ 4.2㧑 Ⴧ ޔ2012 ᐕ ߪ 4.5㧑 Ⴧ ߣ ㄟ ߹ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ޕ ଏ ⛎ ▤ ℂ ⠪ ද ળ㧔 ISM: Institute for Supply Management㧕ߦ ࠃ ࠆ PMI㧔 Purchasing Managers Index㧦 ⺞ ㆐ ⽿ છ ⠪ ߦ ࠃ ࠆ ᥊ ᴫ ᗵ ߩ ᜰ ᮡ ޕ50 ߇ ᄢ ❗ ዊ ߩ ಽ ጘ ὐ ࠍ ␜ ߔ ޕ㧕 ߪ ޔ2009 ᐕ ߦߪᕆỗߦ⪭ߜㄟߺߘߩᓟޔᕆỗߥ࿁ᓳࠍߺߖߡࠆ⋥ޕㄭߪ㗡ᛂߜߩ᭽ሶ߇߃ࠆ߽ߩ ߩ ߽ ߢ ࠇ ߘ ޔ50 ࠍ ࿁ ࠆ േ ߈ ߇ ⛯ ߡ ࠆ ޕ ࿑ 㧞 ISM PMI ߩ ផ ⒖ 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 ISM ޔLongbow Research 2009 ᐕ ޔㅧ ᬺ ߪ ࠶ ࠪ ࡚ ࡦ ߦ ࠃ ࠅ ᕆ ỗ ߦ ↢ ↥ ㊂ ࠍ ᷫ ࠄ ߒ ਥ ߛ ߞ ߚ ᐶ ࠍ ᷡ ▚ ߒ ޔㇱ ຠⵝ ⟎ ߿ ේ ᧚ ᢱ ߩ ࠨ ࡊ ࠗ ࠴ ࠚ ࡦ ߦ 㕖 Ᏹ ߦ ᄢ ߈ ߥ ᓇ 㗀 ࠍ ਈ ߃ ߚ ޕ2010 ᐕ ߦ ⽼ ᄁ ߇ ࿁ ᓳ ޔ ࠨࡊࠗ࠴ࠚࡦ߇േ߈ߒ↢↥߇Ⴧടߒޔᐶ߽ㅢᏱࡌ࡞ߦ߹ߢᚯߞߚޕޔᐶ ߩ ౣ ᭴ ▽ ߩ Ბ 㓏 ߪ ⚳ ੌ ޕታ 㔛 ߇ 2011 ᐕ ߩ ⚻ ᷣ ᚑ 㐳 ₸ ߩ ਥ ⷐ ߥ ⷐ ࿃ ߣ ߥ ࠆ ޕ ⸳ Ⓙ ₸ ߪ ޔ2010 ᐕ ߪ ࠁ ߞ ߊ ࠅ ߣ ⌕ ߒ ߆ ߒ ޔታ ߦ ࿁ ᓳ ߒ ߡ ߈ ߚ ޕㆊ 10 ᐕ ߩ ផ ⒖ ߆ ࠄ ㅢ Ᏹ ୯ ߪ 79%߆ ࠄ 80%ߣ ⠨ ߃ ࠄ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ߇ ޔ2011 ᐕ ߦ ࠅ 70㧑 ඨ ߫ ߢ ផ ⒖ ߒ ߡ ࠆ ߦ ߣߤ߹ߞߡࠆޕ⇇⊛ߦߤߩ↥ᬺࠢ࠲߽⸳ㆊߣ߁⁁ᴫߦࠆޕ ― 21 ― 調査報告 シカゴ ࿑㧟 ⸳Ⓙ₸ߩផ⒖ ో↥ᬺ ㅧᬺ 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 Longbow Research ડᬺߩࠨࡊࠗ࠴ࠚࡦߩ㐳ߐࠍᷫࠄߔޠࠣࡦࠕ࡚ࠪޟ㧔ࡠࠞ࡞ㅧ㧕ߩേ߈ߣ ߣ߽ߦޔ⇇⊛ߥࠨࡊࠗ࠴ࠚࡦߩࡃࡦࠬࠍขࠅᚯߒߟߟࠆޕ ਇ ᴫ ߇ ᧪ ߚ ߣ ߈ ޔડ ᬺ ߪ ߹ ߛ ⩄ ߩ ฃ ᵈ ࠍ ฃ ߌ ߡ ߚ ⚻ ߩ ߎޕ㛎 ࠍ ➅ ࠅ ߐ ߥ ߚ ߦ ޔ ડᬺߪޔၞߩ⢻ജࠍᤋߔࠆߚߦ⥄␠ߩࠨࡊࠗ࠴ࠚࡦߩ⛔วࠍߔߔߡࠆࠕޕ ࠫࠕߢߩ↢↥ߪࠕࠫࠕߢߩᶖ⾌ߩߚߦޔർ☨ߢߩ↢↥ߪർ☨ߢߩᶖ⾌ߩߚߦߣߥߞߡ ߈ߡࠆࠖ࠹ࠖ࠺ࡕࠦޕଔᩰߩ߿ⷙޔߦଥࠆࠦࠬ࠻㧔․ߦឃࠟࠬ߿⋭ࠛࡀ㧕ߦࠃ ࠅ ߩ ⟎ ⵝ ޔଔ ᩰ ߽ ߒ ߡ ࠆ ߩ ␠ ࠕ ࠖ ࠺ ࡦ ࡚ ࠫ ޕᣂ ߚ ߥ Tire 4 Ḱ ߩ ࠻ ࠢ ࠲ ߪ ޔᓥ ᧪ ߩ ࡕ ࠺ ࡞ ࠃ ࠅ ߽ 12.5㧑 ଔ ᩰ ߇ ߒ ߚ ߽ ␠ ࡇ ࠲ ࡖ ࠠޕห ᭽ ߦ ޔᓟ 3 ᐕ 㑆 ߦ ߅ ߡ ޔ Tire 4 Ḱ ߩ ࡕ ࠺ ࡞ ߦ ߟ ߡ ߪ 12㧑 ߩ ଔ ᩰ ߇ ㄟ ߹ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ߣ ߁ ޕⅣ Ⴚ ⼔ ᐡ㧔 EAP: Environmental Protection Agency㧕 ߦ ࠃ ࠆ ᣂ ߚ ߥ ឃ ࠟ ࠬ ⷙ ߦ ࠃ ࠅ ో ߡ ߩ ࠝ ࡈ ࡠ ࠼ ࠻ ࠶ ࠢᏒ႐߇ᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޕ 2012 ᐕ ߩ ☨ ࿖ ߩ ⚻ ᷣ ᚑ 㐳 ߦ ߣ ߞ ߡ ᦨ ᄢ ߩ ⢿ ᆭ ߪ ࡛ ࡠ ࠶ ࡄ ߩ ⚻ ᷣ ⎕ ߚ ࠎ ߩ น ⢻ ᕈ ߢ ࠆޕ 㧔㧝㧕ㄘᬺᯏ᪾ ㄘᬺ⠪ߩ㊄ߪ⸥㍳⊛ߥ⋉ᕈߩࡌ࡞ߦߥߞߡ߈ߡ߅ࠅ↥⟎ⵝߪࠇߎޔᬺߦߣߞ ߡ ߽ ⦟ ࠾ ࡘ ࠬ ޕⓃ ‛ ଔ ᩰ ߪ 㜞 ᳓ Ḱ ߢ ቯ ߒ ߡ ࠆ ߪ ࠲ ࠢ ࠻ޕ2011 ᐕ ߦ 5㧑 㨪 10㧑 ޔ ࠦ ࡦ ࡃ ࠗ ࡦ ߪ 15㧑 㨪 20㧑 ߩ િ ߮ ࠍ ߖ ࠆ ߣ ੍ ᷹ ߐ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ࠹ ߚ ߒ ߣ ߓ ߪ ࠍ ࡞ ࠫ ࡉޕ ࡦࠕࡔࠞᏒၞߪઁߩၞߦᲧセߒߡᅢ⺞ઁޕᣇޔߪߡߟߦࡦ࠴ࡦ࡞ࠕޔ࿖ౝ↢↥ߩ Ⴧടߐߖࠆߚߦ৻ㇱャⷙࠍታᣉߒߡࠆޕ ― 22 ― 調査報告 シカゴ ࿑ 㧠 2011 ᐕ ㄘ ᬺ ᯏ ᪾ 㔛 ⷐ ߩ Ⴧ ᷫ ㅢ ߒ 2010 ᐕ 2011 ᐕ ផ ⸘ ࠻ࠢ࠲ 7㧑 +0㧑 㨪 +5㧑 40 㚍 ജ એ ਅ 4㧑 +5㧑 㨪 +10% 40 㚍 ജ ٌ 1㧑 +5㧑 㨪 +10㧑 100 㚍 ജ 18㧑 0%㨪 +5㧑 ࠦࡦࡃࠗࡦ 9㧑 +10%㨪 +15㧑 ࠻ࠢ࠲ 32㧑 +0㧑 㨪 ٌ 5㧑 ࠦࡦࡃࠗࡦ 29% +0㧑 㨪 ٌ 5㧑 ࠻ࠢ࠲ 14㧑 +5㧑 㨪 +10㧑 ࠦࡦࡃࠗࡦ 1% ർ☨ ࠹ࡦࠕࡔࠞ ⇇ +15㧑 㨪 +20㧑 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 CNH ޔDeere ޔAEM 㧔㧞㧕⊒㔚ᯏ ☨࿖ౝߦ߅ߡߤߩࠃ߁ߥ࠲ࠗࡊߩ߽ߩߢߞߡ߽ᣂߚߦ⊒㔚ᚲ߇ᑪ⸳ߐࠇࠆߎߣߪ߶ ߣ ࠎ ߤ ߥ ޕ㔚 ജ ↪ ㊂ ߦ ߟ ߡ ߪ ޔ2008 ᐕ ޔ2009 ᐕ ߣ 2 ᐕ ㅪ ⛯ ߢ ⪭ ߜ ㄟ ࠎ ߢ ߚ ߇ ޔ2010 ᐕ ߦ ⛯ ߈ 2011 ᐕ ߽ Ⴧ ട ߔ ࠆ ߣ ㄟ ߹ ࠇ ߡ ࠆ ߩ ࠖ ࠹ ࠪ ࡄ ࡖ ࠠޕㅊ ട ߪ ߎ ߎޔᢙ ᐕ ߪ ㆊ ߩ ᳓Ḱࠃࠅ߽ૐࡌ࡞ߢផ⒖ߔࠆߣߺࠄࠇߡࠆ⊒ޕ㔚ᯏ↥ᬺߦߟߡߪࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ╷ ߩᰳᅤ߇ᒰ↥ᬺߦ࠳ࡔࠫࠍਈ߃ࠆߦ․ޕౣ↢น⢻ࠛࡀ࡞ࠡߦߟߡߪߘߩะ߇ ࠆ ޕ2009 ᐕ 10,010MW ߇ ᣂ ߚ ߦ ㅊ ട ߐ ࠇ ߚ 㘑 ജ ⊒ 㔚 ߛ ߇ ޔ2010 ᐕ ߪ 5,115MW ߣ ᕆ ỗ ߦ ⪭ ߜ ㄟ ࠎ ߛ ޕ2025 ᐕ ߹ ߢ ߦ 165GW ࠍ ᣂ ߚ ߦ ዉ ߒ ☨ ޔ࿖ ో ߩ 5㧑 ࠍ ᜂ ߁ ߣ ߁ ⋡ ᮡ ߪ ࠆ߽ߩߩޔవⴕ߈ߩㅢߒߪਇߢࠆޕ ࿑㧡 㔚ജ↪㊂ߩᄌൻߩផ⒖ 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 Longbow Research ― 23 ― 調査報告 シカゴ 㧔㧟㧕⥄േゞ ർ ☨ ߢ ߩ ↢ ↥ ㊂ ߪ 2009 ᐕ ߦ ᄢ ߈ ߊ ⪭ ߜ ㄟ ߺ ޔ2010 ᐕ ߦ ߪ ᄙ ዋ ᓳ ᵴ ߒ ߚ ߽ ߩ ߩ ޔଐ ὼ ߩ ࠃ ߁ ߥ ᳓ Ḱ ߦ ߪ ࠄ ߥ ࠄ ߥ ߣ ߺ ࠄ ࠇ ࠆ ޕEU Ꮢ ႐ ߦ ߟ ߡ ߽ 㗡 ᛂ ߜ ᗵ ߇ ࠆ ޕ ࿑ 㧢 ർ ☨ ↢ ↥ ㊂ ߣ EU Ꮢ ႐ 㧔 100 ਁ บ 㧕 NAFTA Production EU Market 15.0 12.6 8.5 11.9 12.7-13.2 13.0-14.0 22.3 21.2 16.8 19.5 20.1 19.5-20.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 Longbow Research ࠞ ࠽ ࠳ ߢ ߪ ޔㆇ ォ น ⢻ ߥ ᐕ 㦂 ߦ ㆐ ߒ ߚ ੱ ญ ߩ ⚂ 69㧑 ߢ ࠅ ☨ ޔ࿖ ߢ ߪ 101㧑 ޕ ߦ ☨ ࿖ ߩ ᶖ ⾌ ⠪ ߇ ࠞ ࠽ ࠳ ߩ ࡑ ࡀ ࠍ ᆎ ࠆ ߣ ߔ ࠆ ߣ ☨ޔ࿖ ⥄ േ ゞ ↥ ᬺ ߪ ᖤ ᗌ ߥ ⋡ ߦ ߁ ߎ ߣ ߣ ߥ ࠆ ޕ ᣂ ゞ ⽼ ᄁ ߪ 2020 ᐕ ߹ ߢ ߦ ߅ ߡ ߽ 1,400 ਁ บ ߆ ࠄ 1,500 ਁ บ ߣ ߺ ࠄ ࠇ ࠆ ⥄ޔ ߒ ߽ޕേ ゞ ⠪ ߩ ഀ ว ߇ 10㧑 ᷫ ዋ ߔ ࠆ ߣ 1 ᐕ 㑆 ߢ 100 ਁ บ ߆ ࠄ 200 ਁ บ ⽼ ᄁ บ ᢙ ߇ ᷫ ዋ ߔ ࠆ ޕ 㧔㧠㧕㋕ ㋕ゞਔᬺ⇇ߪ࿁ᓳߒߡࠆޕฃᵈ߇࿁ᓳߒᄢⷙᮨߥࡃ࠶ࠢࡠࠣ߇ࠆޔߪࠇߎޕ ㋶ ‛ ャ ㅍ ߩ ゞ ਔ ߇ 㕖 Ᏹ ߦ ᅢ ⺞ ߢ ࠆ ߎ ߣ ߇ ⢛ ᥊ ߦ ࠆ ޕ ⩄ ߪ ޔ2010 ᐕ ߪ ࡇ ࠢ ᤨ ߩ ⚂ 5 ಽ ߩ 1 ߩ 16,513 บ ߆ ࠄ 2011 ᐕ ߦ ߪ 40,000 บ ޔ2012 ᐕ ߦ ߪ 45,000ޯ 50,000 ߦ ߹ ߢ ᚯ ࠆ ߣ ߺ ࠄࠇࠆޕ ࿑㧣 ㋕ゞਔ⩄ߩㅢߒ ゞਔᢙ㧔ਔ㧕 2006 ᐕ 76,943 2007 ᐕ 63,185 2008 ᐕ 59,906 2009 ᐕ 21,682 2010 ᐕ 16,513 2011 ᐕ E 40,000 2012 ᐕ E 45,000-50,000 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 Longbow Research ― 24 ― 調査報告 シカゴ 㧔㧡㧕࠻࠶ࠢ ⽻‛ࠍേ߆ߔ႐วߛߞߚࠄࠢࠬ㧤ߢࠅࠬࡆࠨ߿ࡃ࠺ߩ‛ޔ㑐ㅪߩࡆࠫࡀࠬ ߢࠇ߫ࠬࠢޔ㧠㨪㧣ߩ࠻࠶ࠢ߇ᔅⷐߣߥࠆ⚻ޕᷣ߇ᵴᕈൻߔࠇ߫ߩࠢ࠶࠻ޔ⩄ ߽Ⴧ߃ࠆߣ߁㑐ଥᕈߦࠆߩࠢ࠶࠻ޕⓍߺ⩄㒢㊀㊂ߪޔᄢ߈ߊߥࠅ⛯ߌߡࠆ߹ޕ ߚ ࡃ ࠗ ࠼ޔਇ ⿷ ߣ ߁ ߎ ߣ ߽ ᧪ ⊛ ߥ 㔛 ⷐ ߦ ਈ ߃ ࠆ ৻ ߟ ߩ ࠠ ߣ ߥ ࠆ ޕ2011 ᐕ ೨ ඨ ߹ ߢ ߩ ⒢ ఝ ㆄ ភ ⟎ ߪ 2012 ᐕ ߩ 㔛 ⷐ ಽ ࠍ వ 㘩 ߒ ߡ ࠆ น ⢻ ᕈ ߽ ࠆ ޕ ࿑ 㧤 ᄢ ဳ ࠺ ࠖ ࡞ ࠻ ࠶ ࠢ 㧔 ࠢ ࠬ 8㧕 㔛 ⷐ ߩ ㅢ ߒ 䋨ජบ䋩 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 Longbow Research 㧔㧢㧕ᑪ⸳ᯏ᪾ ቛ Ꮢ ႐ ߇ ᒁ ߈ ⛯ ߈ 㕒 ߆ ߥ ⁁ ᴫ ޕ ቛ ᑪ ⸳ ද ળ ߩ ੍ ᷹ ߢ ߪ ޔᓥ ᧪ 688,000 ᚭ 㨪 739,000 ᚭ ߣ ੍ ᷹ ߒ ߡ ߚ ߇ ࠍ ࠇ ߘ ޔᒁ ߈ ਅ ߍ 593,000 ᚭ 㨪 615,000 ᚭ ߣ ߒ ߚ ޕ 㕖 ቛ Ꮢ ႐ ߪ ޔ2010 ᐕ 13.9㧑 ⪭ ߜ ㄟ ࠎ ߛ ߇ ޔ2011 ᐕ ߪ ৻ ᩴ บ ߢ ߪ ࠆ ߽ ߩ ߩ Ⴧ ട ߦ ォ ߓࠆߣ੍᷹ߒߡࠆޕ ࠗ ࡦ ࡈ 㑐 ଥ ߦ ߟ ߡ ߪ ޔ2011 ᐕ ߪ 2010 ᐕ ห ᭽ ߣ ߺ ߡ ࠆ ޔ ߒ ߛ ߚ ޕ㜞 ㅦ 〝 㑐 ㅪ ᴺ ᩺߇ᚑ┙ߒߚ႐วߦߪߩߘޔ㧝ᐕᓟߊࠄߦᓇ㗀߇ߢߡߊࠆޕ ⁁ޔᑪ⸳ߦኻߔࠆᡰߪᒁ߈⛯߈ប߃ߥ࿁ᓳߢࠆ৻ᣇޔᣂߚߥᑪ⸳ᯏ᪾߳ߩᡰ ߦߟߡߪޔᕆߒޔᓥ᧪੍᷹ࠃࠅ߽⦟ᣇะߣߥߞߡࠆޕ ― 25 ― 調査報告 シカゴ ࿑㧥 ᑪ⸳ᯏ᪾Ꮢ႐ߩჇᷫㅢߒ 2010 ᐕ 2011 ᐕ ㅢ ߒ シ㊂ᯏ ో⇇ 39㧑 25㧑 㨪 30㧑 ർ☨ 21㧑 30㧑 㨪 35㧑 ᰷Ꮊ 34㧑 25㧑 㨪 30㧑 ࠹ࡦࠕࡔࠞ 88㧑 25㧑 #2'% 52㧑 20㧑 㨪 25㧑 ㊀ᯏ ో⇇ 61㧑 25㧑 㨪 30㧑 ർ☨ 16㧑 25㧑 㨪 30㧑 ᰷Ꮊ 49㧑 40㧑 ࠹ࡦࠕࡔࠞ 96㧑 25㧑 69㧑 #2'% 25㧑 㨪 30㧑 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 CNH ޔDeere ޔCaterpillar ࠃ ࠅ Longbow ផ ⸘ 㧔㧣㧕Ꮏᯏ᪾ Ꮏ ᯏ ᪾ ↥ ᬺ ߪ 60%એ ߩ ⪭ ߜ ߎ ߺ ߣ ߥ ߞ ߚ 2009 ᐕ ߆ ࠄ ᕆ ỗ ߦ ࿁ ᓳ ߒ ߡ ࠆ ߣ ߎ ࠈ ޕ 100㧑 ߩ ᷫ ଔ ఘ ළ ߇ น ⢻ ߣ ߥ ࠆ ភ ⟎ ߇ ᐕ ߞ ߬ ߢ ⚳ ੌ ߒ ޔᑧ 㐳 ߇ ㄟ ߹ ࠇ ߥ ߣ ߎ ࠈ ޔ ߩ ⩄ ߪ 2012 ᐕ ಽ ߩ వ 㘩 ߩ น ⢻ ᕈ ߽ ࠆ ޕ2012 ᐕ ߦ ߟ ߡ ߪ ☨ ޔ࿖ ⚻ ᷣ ߘ ߩ ߽ ߩ ߣวࠊߖߡប߃ߢߪࠆ߽ߩߩᡷༀߒߡߊߣ੍ᗐߐࠇࠆޕ ࿑㧝㧜 ☨࿖Ꮏᯏ᪾ᶖ⾌㜞ߩㅢߒ (න 㧦 ⊖ ਁ ࠼ ࡞ ޔ㧑 ) 2005 ᐕ ㊄ዻಾ Ⴧ ᷫ (%) ㊄ዻᚑᒻ Ⴧ ᷫ (%) ⸘ Ⴧ ᷫ (%) 2006 ᐕ 2007 ᐕ 2008 ᐕ 2009 ᐕ 2010 ᐕ 2011 ᐕ 2012 ᐕ ㅢߒ ㅢߒ 㪉㪃㪐㪊㪌 㪊㪃㪎㪇㪊㩷 㪊㪃㪐㪏㪉 㪊㪃㪏㪐㪎 㪈㪃㪌㪈㪇 㪊㪃㪇㪇㪎 㪋㪃㪊㪊㪇㩷 㪋㪃㪍㪊㪊 㪍 㪉㪍㩷 㪏 䂦㪉 䂦㪍㪈 㪐㪐 㪋㪋㩷 㪎 㪊㪐㪎 㪊㪐㪌㩷 㪋㪋㪈 㪌㪇㪈 㪉㪊㪍 㪉㪉㪐 㪋㪈㪉㩷 㪋㪊㪉 㪏 䂦㪈㩷 㪈㪉 㪈㪋 䂦㪌㪊 䂦㪊 㪏㪇㩷 㪌 㪊㪃㪊㪊㪉 㪋㪃㪇㪐㪏㩷 㪋㪃㪋㪉㪊 㪋㪃㪊㪐㪏 㪈㪃㪎㪋㪍 㪊㪃㪉㪊㪍 㪋㪃㪎㪋㪉㩷 㪌㪃㪇㪍㪊 㪍 㪉㪊㩷 㪏 䂦㪈 䂦㪍㪇 㪏㪌 㪋㪎㩷 㪎 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 AMT ޔLongbow 㧔㧤㧕ࡈ࡞࠼ࡄࡢ ᴤ ⓨ ᯏ ེ ᬺ ⇇ ߪ ޔ2011 ᐕ ߪ OEM 㔛 ⷐ ߇ ߌ ࠎ ᒁ ߒ 2010 ᐕ ߦ ᒁ ߈ ⛯ ߈ ᅢ ⺞ ࠍ ⛽ ᜬ ޕ2012 ᐕ ߦ ߟ ߡ ߪ ޔ2011 ᐕ ࠃ ࠅ ߪ ߪ ߥ ߊ ߥ ࠆ ߣ ߺ ࠄ ࠇ ࠆ ޕ ― 26 ― 調査報告 シカゴ ࿑㧝㧝 ࡈ࡞࠼ࡄࡢߩਥⷐ㔛ⷐవჇᷫㅢߒ ࡕࡃࠗ࡞ဳ ㄘᬺᯏ᪾ ⦼ಿࠅᯏ ᑪ⸳ᯏ᪾ ㋶ጊᯏ᪾ ୃ↪ ߘߩઁ 07 ᐕ 08 ᐕ 09 ᐕ 10 ᐕ 11 ᐕ ੍ ᷹ 12 ᐕ ੍ ᷹ -8% 5% -20㧑 14㧑 8% 7% -10% -5% -22㧑 7㧑 5% 4% -16% 12% -65㧑 50㧑 33% 9% 5% 10% -40㧑 28㧑 44% 12% 0% -4% -45㧑 42㧑 25% 10% 3% 10% -25㧑 40㧑 15% 10% 9% -2% -40㧑 85㧑 29% 15% 7% -10% -20㧑 25㧑 10% 7% ቯ⟎ဳ Ꮏᯏ᪾ ⚕ᯏ᪾ 㘩ຠᯏ᪾ ൻቇᯏ᪾ 㩖㩩㩡㩇㩋㨹㩂 ᯏ ᪾ ൮ⵝᯏ᪾ ୃ↪ ߘߩઁ 7% 3% -10㧑 25㧑 6% 5% 12% 5% -20㧑 25㧑 18% 15% -5% -10% -20㧑 25㧑 15% 9% 0% 0% -20㧑 25㧑 10% 5% 7% 5% -25㧑 45㧑 20% 7% 6% 3% -20㧑 35㧑 20% 9% ว⸘ -1% 6% -36㧑 38㧑 23% 9% 㧔 ᚲ 㧕 Longbow Research 㧔 ⻠ Ṷ ⠪ 㧕 Eli S. Lustgarten ᳁ ESL Consultants ␠ 㐳 ޔLongbow Research ⚖ ␠ 㐳 ޕ࿖ ౝ ߮ ᶏ ᄖ ߩ ਥ ⷐ ㅧ ᬺ Ꮢ ႐ ߦ 㑐 ߔ ࠆ ⚻ ᷣ ㅢ ߒ ߿ ޔᛩ ⾗ ᯏ 㑐 ะ ߌ ߦ ㅧ ᬺ Ꮢ ႐ ߦ 㑐 ߔ ࠆ ⺞ ᩏ ࠍ ታ ᣉ ޕ20 ᐕ એ ߦ ਗ਼ ࠅ ޡInstitutional Investor ⺞ ☨ ో ߩ ޢᩏ ࠴ ࡓ ߦ ㆬ ߫ ࠇ ߚ ߎ ߣ ߢ ห ᬺ ⠪ ߩ 㑆 ߢ ⍮ ฬ ᐲ ߇ 㜞 ޕ ࡍࡦࠪ࡞ࡃ࠾ࠕᄢቇ㔚᳇Ꮏቇୃ჻࠼ࡃࡂޕᄢቇ⚻༡ቇୃ჻ޕ ― 27 ―