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BBLセミナー プレゼンテーション資料 - RIETI
⤒῭⏘ᴗ◊✲ᡤ㸦5,(7,㸧 %%/ࢭ࣑ࢼ࣮ ࣉࣞࢮࣥࢸ࣮ࢩࣙࣥ㈨ᩱ ᖺ᭶᪥ 䛂ୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧䠉䛄䜘䜝䜑䛟ୡ⏺⤒῭㻌 䠉వ䜚䛻䜒㛗ᮇ䛻䜟䛯䜛⦆៏䛺ᡂ㛗䛅䛃㻌 ᯽℩୍㑻 ͤ㈨ᩱ䛾ᘬ⏝䛿䚸IMF䛾䜴䜵䝤䝃䜲䝖䛻ᥖ㍕䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛㻌ୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧㻌 ᮏᩥཬ䜃ᅗ⾲䛛䜙┤᥋䛾ᘬ⏝䛸䛧䚸ฟ䜢᫂グ䛧䛶䛟䛰䛥䛔㻌 http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html ୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧㻌 䠄WEO) 2016ᖺ4᭶ 䜘䜝䜑䛟ୡ⏺⤒῭䠉 㛗ᮇ䛻䜟䛯䜛⦆៏䛺ᡂ㛗 ᅜ㝿㏻㈌ᇶ㔠(IMF) ᯽℩୍㑻 ୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻傽凬 ᡂ㛗⋡僕౫↛僎傽僌⦆僪傱傏僖僯僊傳傲储僰傎ୗ僲兎儝儓僸క催凕 ࣮࣋ࢫࣛࣥ • • ඛ㐍ᅜ࣭ᆅᇦࡢ2016ᖺ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡣ 2015ᖺᴟࡵ࡚㏆࠸ண 2017ᖺࡣⱝᖸࡢᨵၿࢆண • • ᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ࣭ᆅᇦࡢ2016ᖺࡢ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡣࢃࡎ࡞ࡀࡽᨵၿࢆண ࢫࢺࣞࢫୗ࠶ࡿᅜ࣭ᆅᇦࡢ⤒῭≧ἣࡀṇᖖࡍࡿࡘࢀࠊ2017ᖺࡣࡼ࠸ຊᙉ࠸ ᅇࡀぢ㎸ࡲࢀࡿ ⤒῭ࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࡣᅜࡈ࡞ࡾ␗࡞ࡿ • ࣜࢫࢡ • • • • • ᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ࣭ᆅᇦࡢ㈨ᮏࣇ࣮ࣟࡢ↓⛛ᗎ࡞ⴠࡕ㎸ࡳࡀ㔠⼥Ᏻᐃࢆᦆ࡞࠺ ࣜࢫࢡ ୰ᅜࡢࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫࡑࡢἼཬຠᯝ ୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁ࡢప㏞ࡀ㍺ฟᅜ࠼ࡿᙳ㡪 㸦᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ࣭ᆅᇦཬࡧపᡤᚓᅜ㸧 ᅔ❓≧ែ࠶ࡿᅜ࡛㛗ᘬࡃᬒẼᚋ㏥ ⤒῭௨እࡢཎᅉࡼࡿࢩࣙࢵࢡ 1 ඛ㐍ᅜ兟ᆅᇦ僑傰傪僌傎ᡂ㛗⋡僕᭦僑ୗ᪉ಟṇ… 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ୡ⏺ ඛ㐍ᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ ⡿ᅜ ⱥᅜ ᪥ᮏ 䝴䞊䝻ᅪ 䝗䜲䝒 䜹䝘䝎 䜰䝆䜰䛾䛾 ඛ㐍ᅜ 2015 3.1 1.9 2.4 2.2 0.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.1 2016 3.2 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.2 2016ᖺ1᭶䛛 䜙䛾ಟṇ -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2017 3.5 2.0 2.5 2.2 -0.1 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.6 2016ᖺ1᭶䛛 䜙䛾ಟṇ -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 ฟᡤ䠖 IMFୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧䠄WEO䠅 2016ᖺ1᭶ᨵゞ䚸 IMFୡ⏺⤒῭䛾ぢ㏻䛧䠄WEO䠅 2016ᖺ4᭶ 2 …僃傽僌傎᪂⯆ᕷሙཬ僙పᡤᚓ㏵ୖᅜ働僨傏 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ୡ⏺ ᪂⯆ᕷሙཬ䜃㏵ ୖᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ ୰ᅜ 䜲䞁䝗 䝤䝷䝆䝹 䝻䝅䜰 ୍ḟ⏘ရ㍺ฟ ᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ పᡤᚓ㏵ୖᅜ 2015 3.1 4.0 6.9 7.3 -3.8 -3.7 0.7 4.5 2016 3.2 4.1 6.5 7.5 -3.8 -1.8 1.0 4.7 2016ᖺ1᭶䛛䜙䛾 ಟṇ -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 2017 3.5 4.6 6.2 7.5 0.0 0.8 2.6 5.5 2016ᖺ1᭶䛛䜙䛾 ಟṇ -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 ฟᡤ䠖 IMFୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧䠄WEO䠅 2016ᖺ1᭶ᨵゞ䚸IMFୡ⏺⤒῭䛾ぢ㏻䛧䠄WEO䠅 2016ᖺ4᭶ 3 ୡ⏺⤒῭䛿ᖺ௨㝆䚸ᚎ䚻䛻ᅇ䛧䛶䛔䛟ぢ㏻䛧䚹 5 ඛ㐍ᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ: ᐇ㉁GDPᡂ㛗⋡ ᪂⯆ᕷሙ: ᐇ㉁GDPᡂ㛗⋡ 䠄䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䚸㐣ཤ䛾WEOண 䠅 2008ᖺ4᭶ April '08 April '11 2011ᖺ4᭶ 䠄䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䚸㐣ཤ䛾WEOண 䠅 April '16 2016ᖺ4᭶ April '08 2008ᖺ4᭶ 9 4 April '11 2011ᖺ4᭶ April '16 2016ᖺ4᭶ 8 3 7 2 6 1 5 0 4 -1 3 -2 2 -3 1 -4 0 2000 ฟᡤ: IMF䝇䝍䝑䝣᥎ᐃ 04 08 12 16 20 2000 04 08 12 16 20 4 䛭䜜䛷䛿䚸ୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧䠄䝧䞊䝇䝷䜲䞁䠅䛾๓ᥦ䛿䠛 • ⌧ᅾ䝇䝖䝺䝇ୗ䛻䛒䜛ᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ䛾⤒῭≧ἣ䛜⦆䜔䛛䛻ṇᖖ • ୰ᅜ⤒῭䛾䝸䝞䝷䞁䝇䛜ᡂຌ䛧䚸⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡䛾䝖䝺䞁䝗䛿ప䜑䛺䛜䜙䚸 㻌 㻌 ౫↛䛸䛧䛶㧗䛔Ỉ‽䜢⥔ᣢ • ཎἜ౯᱁䛜⦆䜔䛛䛻ᅇ䛧䚸୍ḟ⏘ရ㍺ฟᅜ䛾㍺ฟ䛜ຍ㏿ • 䛾᪂⯆ᕷሙཬ䜃㏵ୖᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ䛾ᡂ㛗䛜ᅇ 5 ୡ⏺僑ཬ僜⤒῭僔ㄪᩚ傲ぢ㏻傽僸ᙧస僉僌傪僱傏 僃僔せ僐僨僔僕凱 1. ୰ᅜ⤒῭䛾ῶ㏿䛸䝸䝞䝷䞁䝇 2. ཎἜ䜢୰ᚰ䛸䛧䛯୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁䛾ୗⴠ⥅⥆ ¾ 㛵㐃䛩䜛䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹ᢞ㈨䞉㈠᫆䛾ῶ㏿ ¾ ᅜ䚸䝉䜽䝍䞊䛻䛚䛡䜛ศ㓄䛾ᙳ㡪 3. ᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ䜈䛾㈨ᮏ䝣䝻䞊䛾ῶᑡ 6 1. ୰ᅜ⤒῭䛾ῶ㏿䛸䝸䝞䝷䞁䝇 GDP䛻༨䜑䜛ᕤᴗ䛾ẚ⋡䛜పୗ䛧… …ᢞ㈨䛾ẚ⋡䜒ῶᑡ ⢒ຍ౯್ࡢẚ⋡ Share of Gross Value Added (percent of GDP) 㸦ᑐGDPẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ᨭฟ䛻䜘䜛⢒ຍ౯್䛾ẚ⋡ 䠄ᑐGDPẚ䚸䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䠅 52 16 Real GDP growth (percent; year-over-year) ᐇ㉁GDPᡂ㛗⋡㸦ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺࠊ๓ᖺẚ㸧 14 Consumption ᾘ㈝ 50 Industry (including construction: RHS) ᕤᴗ㸦ᘓタᴗྵࡴࠊྑ㍈㸧 12 60 Investment ᢞ㈨ 55 Services (RHS) ࢧ࣮ࣅࢫᴗ㸦ྑ㍈㸧 48 10 46 50 8 44 6 45 42 4 40 40 2 0 38 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 35 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 7 2. ཎἜ䜢୰ᚰ䛸䛧䛯୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁䛿౫↛䛸䛧䛶ప㏞… ୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁ᣦᩘ ཎἜᅾᗜ 䠄2010ᖺ1᭶1᪥=100䠅 䠄ඛΏ䛧㟂せ᪥ᩘ䠅 Metal 㔠ᒓ Food 㣗⣊ Crude ཎἜ 1/Oil 1/ United ⡿ᅜ States OECD exc.United States OECDㅖᅜࠊ⡿ᅜࢆ㝖ࡃ 200 110 180 105 160 140 100 120 95 100 80 90 60 85 40 80 20 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 75 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 ฟᡤ䠖 IMFୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻䛧䠄WEO䠅䚸IMF䝥䝷䜲䝬䝸䞊䞉䝁䝰䝕䜱䝔䜱䞉䝥䝷䜲䝇䞉䝅䝇䝔䝮䚸ᅜ㝿䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊ᶵ㛵䠄IEA䠅 1/ APSP 䠄ཎἜ䝇䝫䝑䝖౯᱁䛾ᖹᆒ䠅䠖 ᾏ䝤䝺䞁䝖ཎἜ䚸䝗䝞䜲䚸䜴䜶䝇䝖䞉䝔䜻䝃䝇䞉䜲䞁䝍䞊䝭䝕䜱䜶䞊䝖䛾༢⣧ᖹᆒ 16 8 … ୡ⏺僔儌儱兏儒兠ཬ僙᥇᥀ᢞ㈨傲ῶᑡ傏 僃僔ᖜ僕㍺ฟ౫Ꮡᗘ僔㧗傪ᅜ僑傰傪僌傳傪傏 せ⏘ฟᅜ:㻌 ཎἜཬ䜃ኳ↛䜺䝇䛾ᐇ㉁タഛᢞ㈨䜈 䛾ᐤᗘ䠄ᅄ༙ᮇẖ䠅 タഛᢞ㈨ቑຍ䛾ኚ⋡䛸GDP䛻༨䜑䜛 䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䞉㖔ᴗ㍺ฟẚ⋡䛾┦㛵 䠄10൨䝗䝹䠅 90 Asia ࢪ South America ༡࣓ࣜ࢝ Russia ࣟࢩ Middle ୰ᮾ East North ⡿ America Total (right scale) ྜィ㸦ྑ㍈㸧 80 70 20 300 250 200 60 50 150 40 30 20 100 タഛᢞ㈨ቑຍ䛾ኚ⋡ (2012-13ᖺ䛸2014-15ᖺ䠅 100 Australia ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Africa ࣇࣜ࢝ Europe Ḣᕞ 10 y = -0.33x + 0.75, R² = 0.21 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 (-2.85) 0 -10 -20 50 -30 10 0 0 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䞉㖔ᴗ㍺ฟẚ⋡䠄2000ᖺ-13ᖺ䛾ᖹᆒ್䠅 䠄ᑐGDPẚ䚸䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䠅 55 9 60 ᭦僑㔜せ僐傹僎僕傎ୡ⏺僑傰傷僱ᢞ㈨僔ప㏞傲 ㈠᫆僑ୗᢲ傽ᅽຊ僸傱傷僌傪僱… ඛ㐍ᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ ᪂⯆ᕷሙཬ䜃㏵ୖᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ ᐇ㉁ᢞ㈨ Real investment 20 Real imports ᐇ㉁㍺ධ ᐇ㉁GDP(ᕷሙⅭ࣮᭰ࣞࢺ) Real GDP at market prices 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 1998 -20 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 10 …僃僔ᅽຊ僕傎୰ᅜ僪㈨※㍺ฟᅜ僑傰傪僌㢧ⴭ傏 せ䛺୍ḟ⏘ရ㍺ฟᅜ ୰ᅜ Real investment ᐇ㉁ᢞ㈨ 35 Real imports ᐇ㉁㍺ධ 40 30 30 25 20 20 10 15 0 10 -10 5 -20 0 1998 -30 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Real GDP at market prices ᐇ㉁GDP(ᕷሙⅭ࣮᭰ࣞࢺ) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 11 ᫆᮲௳僔ᖜ僐ኚ僑僮僉僌傎അⓎⓗ僐ᦆ┈傲Ⓨ⏕… 5 2015 2016 2014 അⓎᦆኻ 0 䠄ᑐGDPẚ䚸 -5 䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䠅-10 -15 -20 -25 KWT QAT SAU VEN DZA ARE KAZ RUS NGA IRN UKR AUS NOR MEX CAN BRA COL CHL EGY PER MYS ARG VNM SWE TWN 5 4 അⓎ┈ 䠄ᑐGDPẚ䚸3 䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䠅2 1 0 -1 12 BGD NLD IDN CZE GBR SWE ESP ITA USA PHL ROM AUT CHE TUR CHN BEL POL DEU FRA IND JPN HKG SGP THA KOR … 2014ᖺ ᖺ௨㝆僔ᐇ㉁ᐇຠⅭ᭰児兠儬僔ኚ僑僨ᙳ㡪僸ཬ僢傽僌傪僱傏 ᫆᮲௳僑僮僱ᦆ┈僎僔┦㛵㛵ಀ ᐇ㉁ᐇຠⅭ᭰䝺䞊䝖䛾ኚ 䠄2016ᖺ2᭶ᑐ2014ᖺ䛾ᖹᆒ䠅 30 20 Emerging Markets ᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ࣭ᆅᇦ 10 Advanced Economies ඛ㐍ᅜ࣭ᆅᇦ USA PAK IND CHN PHL IDN CHE MAR GBRTUN URY TWN CZE JPNTUR ISR THA HUN SWE POL SRB ROM EUR PER CHL 0 -10 NZL AUS NOR Y = 5.3x – 2.9 R2 = 0.57 -20 CAN MEX CRI KOR SGP MYS ZAF BRA RUS -30 COL KAZ -40 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 ᫆᮲௳䛻䜘䜛അⓎᦆ┈ 䠄2015ᖺ – 16ᖺᖹᆒ䠅 ฟᡤ䠖IMF䝇䝍䝑䝣᥎ᐃ 1 2 3 13 15% 10% Latest relative to Mar 2016 2016ᖺ3᭶┤㏆ࡢẚ㍑ Mar 2016 relative to August 2015 2015ᖺ8᭶2016ᖺ3᭶ࡢẚ㍑ -10% -15% ༡ࣇࣜ࢝ South Africa China ୰ᅜ India ࣥࢻ Indonesia ࣥࢻࢿࢩ Malaysia ࣐࣮ࣞࢩ Philippines ࣇࣜࣆࣥ ࢱ Thailand ࣁ࣮ࣥ࢞ࣜ Hungary ࣏࣮ࣛࣥࢻ Poland ࣟࢩ Russia ࢺࣝࢥ Turkey ࣈࣛࢪࣝ Brazil ࢳࣜ Chile Colombia ࢥࣟࣥࣅ Mexico ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ Peru ࣮࣌ࣝ New Zealand ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Australia Norway ࣀ࢙࣮ࣝ࢘ Canada ࢝ࢼࢲ ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝ Singapore Taiwan ྎ‴ PoC Korea 㡑ᅜ 10% ࢫࢫ Switzerland ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࢹࣥ Sweden ⱥᅜ UK ᪥ᮏ Japan ࣮ࣘࣟᅪ Euro area US ⡿ᅜ ᐇຠⅭ᭰䝺䞊䝖䜒ᅜ䛻䜘䛳䛶䛿䛝䛟ኚື (2015ᖺ8᭶ – 2016ᖺ4᭶䠅 Latest relative to Mar 2016 2016ᖺ3᭶┤㏆ࡢẚ㍑ 2015ᖺ8᭶2016ᖺ3᭶ࡢẚ㍑ Mar 2016 relative to August 2015 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -15% 14 僃傽僌傎㔠⼥ໃ僕Ᏻᐃ働儣儈儬… 800 㔠⼥ᕷሙ䛾䝪䝷䝔䜱䝸䝔䜱 ᰴ౯ 䠄ᣦᩘ䚸2007ᖺ1᭶1᪥ = 100䠅 䠄ᣦᩘ䚸2007ᖺ1᭶1᪥ = 100䠅 VIX㸦࣎ࣛࢸࢸ࣭ࣥࢹࢵࢡࢫ㸧 VIX G7 FX Ⅽ᭰ࡢ࣎ࣛࢸࣜࢸ G7 volatility ᪂⯆ᕷሙࡢⅭ᭰ࡢ࣎ࣛࢸࣜࢸ Emerging market FX volatility 700 䠄䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䠅 S&P 500 S&P 500✀ᰴ౯ᣦᩘ 160 140 600 ᅜമ䛾ᅇ䜚 Euro Stoxx 50 ࣮࣭ࣘࣟࢫࢺࢵࢡࢫ 50 ᪥⤒225225 Nikkei MSCI emerging market MSCI࢚࣐࣮ࢪࣥࢢ࣭࣐࣮ ࢣࢵࢺ ⡿ᅜ U.S. 12 ࣮ࣘࣟᅪ Euro area ᪥ᮏ Japan 10 120 8 100 6 80 4 60 2 100 40 0 0 20 -2 EMBIࢢ࣮ࣟࣂ࣭ࣝࢯࣈࣜࣥ EMBIG sovereign 500 400 300 200 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ฟᡤ㸸ࣈ࣮࣒ࣝࣂ࣮ࢢࠊ࣊ࣂ࣮࣭ࢼࣜࢸࢡࢫࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ⟬ᐃ 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 3. ᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ䜈䛾㈨ᮏ䝣䝻䞊䛜ᗈ⠊ᅖ䛻ཬ䜃ῶ㏿… ᪂⯆ᕷሙᅜ࣭ᆅᇦࡢṇ㈨ᮏὶධ 㸦2000ᖺ – 2015ᖺQ3ࠊᑐGDPẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ຍ㔜ᖹᆒ ຍ㔜ᖹᆒ㸦୰ᅜࣟࢩࢆ㝖ࡃ㸧 ୰ኸ್ ᅄศ⠊ᅖ 16 䛭䜜䛿䚸᪂⯆ᕷሙ䛸ඛ㐍ᅜ䛾ᡂ㛗⋡䛾ᕪ㐪䛾⦰ᑠ䛻ᙉ䛟㛵㐃䚹 ᭱㏆ࡢ㈨ᮏὶධࡢῶᑡ࠾ࡅࡿࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ࡞せᅉ 㸦2000ᖺ – 15ᖺ3QࠊᑐGDPẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ㈨ᮏὶධࡢண ್ ㈨ᮏὶධࡢᐇᩘ ᡂ㛗⋡ࡢᕪ㐪l 㔠ᕪ ࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ࡞ࣜࢫࢡᅇ㑊 ⡿ᅜࡢ࣮ࣝࢻ࣭ࢠࣕࢵࣉ ⡿ᅜᴗࡢ♫മࡢࢫࣉࣞࢵࢻ ㈨ᮏὶධࡢᐇᩘண ್ ㈨ᮏὶධࡢண ್ ᐤᗘ 17 䜎䛯䚸ᅜ䛤䛸䛾ᅛ᭷䜒㈨ᮏὶධῶᑡ䛻ᙳ㡪䜢ཬ䜌䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 ㈨ᮏὶධῶᑡࡢᕪ(2010– 2015ᖺ) 㸦ᑐGDPẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 Ⅽ᭰ࡀኚື ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃᅛᐃไᗘ ࡢሙྜ እ㈌‽ഛࡀ ࡼࡾప࠸ሙྜ മົࡀ ࡼࡾ㧗࠸ሙྜ 18 䛣䛾䜘䛖䛺ୡ⏺⤒῭䛻䛚䛡䜛䚸ᚲせ䛺ᨻ⟇ᥦゝ䛿䠛 ඛ㐍ᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ ᪂⯆ᕷሙཬ䜃㻌 ㏵ୖᅜ䞉ᆅᇦ 䛩䜉䛶䛾ᅜ • • • 㔠⼥⦆䛸䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ䛾⥅⥆ 䝔䞊䝷䞊䝗䛥䜜䛯䠄ಶู䛾䠅ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉䛾ᐇ ㈈ᨻᨭ 䠄ฟືవᆅ䛾䛒䜛ᅜ䛷䛿䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨䛻䜘䜛⦆䚸ᚲせ䛻ᛂ䛨䛶 ᡂ㛗䜢㜼ᐖ䛧䛺䛔ㄪᩚ䠅 • • • • Ⅽ᭰䝺䞊䝖䜢⦆⾪⨨䛸䛧䛶ᘬ䛝⥆䛝⏝ 䠄䝸䝇䜽䜢┘ど䠅 㔠⼥⦆䠋㈈ᨻᨻ⟇䛾๓䛻䝖䝺䞊䝗䜸䝣䜢ぢᴟ䜑䜛 ⛛ᗎ❧䛳䛯ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉 㔠⼥┘╩ཬ䜃䝬䜽䝻䝥䝹䞊䝕䞁䝇䛾ᯟ⤌䜏䜢ᙉ • ྠἣ䜢ᅇ㑊䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䛿䚸༠ㄪⓗ䛺ᨻ⟇ⓗᥐ⨨䜒ᚲせ䚸⥭ᛴᑐᛂ⟇ 䜢᪩ᛴ䛻సᡂ 䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䛺䝉䞊䝣䝔䜱䝛䝑䝖䛸㈈ᨻᨵ㠉ᨻ⟇䜢ᣑ 㞴Ẹ䜔䛺䛹䚸䛭䛾䛾බඹၥ㢟䛻༠ㄪ䛧䛶ᑐฎ䛩䜛ᚲせ • • 19 ⛛ᗎ❧僉僅ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉僔ᚲせᛶ僨㔜ど傏 〇ရ䞉ປാᕷሙᨵ㠉䛜䝬䜽䝻⤒῭䛾ᡂᯝ䛻䛘䜛ᙳ㡪 䠄ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉䛾ຠᯝ䛿䚸ᨵ㠉䛾䝍䜲䝥䚸⥲ྜⓗ⤒῭≧ἣ䚸⪃៖䛥䜜䜛㛫ᯟ䛷␗䛺䜛䠅 ᨵ㠉ศ㔝 〇ရᕷሙ ṇᖖ䛺⤒῭≧ἣ ▷ᮇ ୰ᮇ + ++ ⬤ᙅ䛺⤒῭≧ἣ ▷ᮇ ᙉ䛔⤒῭≧ἣ ୰ᮇ ▷ᮇ ୰ᮇ + + ++ –– + ++ + ++ ኻᴗ⤥ + ++ – – ⛯䛾䛟䛥䜃䠄ປാᕷሙ䠅 ++ ++ ++ ++ ປാᕷሙάᛶᨻ⟇ ++ ++ ++ ++ 㞠⏝ಖㆤἲไ ฟᡤ㸸IMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ᥎ᐃ ὀ㸸 ࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭ࡢᡂᯝࡣࠊ⏘ฟ㧗㸭㞠⏝㸸㸩 (㸫) ࡣࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࣉࣛࢫ㸦࣐ࢼࢫ㸧ࡢຠᯝࢆ♧ࡍࠋ “㸩” (“㸫”) ࡢᩘࡣᙳ㡪ࡢᙉࡉࢆ♧ࡍࠋ ປാ⛯ῶ⛯࠾ࡼࡧປാᕷሙάᛶᨻ⟇ࡢᨭฟቑຍࡢຠᯝࡣࡼࡾᑠࡉ࠸ࡀࠊࡇ࠺ࡋࡓᥐ⨨ࡀண⟬୰❧ࡢᙧ࡛ᑟධࡉࢀࡓࡁࡣ⥅⥆ⓗࣉࣛࢫࡢຠᯝࢆཬࡰࡍࠋ 20 ࢪኴᖹὒᆅᇦ࠾ࡅࡿ⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ ⃭ືࡢ௦―ࢪࡢ᭦࡞ࡿ㣕㌍ྥࡅ࡚ せ࡞࣓ࢵࢭ࣮ࢪ࣮ࣟࢻ࣐ࢵࣉ •ࢪࡣ࡞࠾ୡ⏺ࡢᡂ㛗࢚ࣥࢪࣥ •▷ᮇⓗࡣୗࢀࣜࢫࢡࡀᨭ㓄ⓗ •୰ᅜࡢࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫἼཬຠᯝࡣ▷ᮇⓗࡣ࿘ᅖᝏᙳ㡪ࢆ࠼ࡿ ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡀࠊ୰ᮇⓗࡣᴫࡡᜠᜨࢆ࠼ࡿ •ࢪࡣᘬࡁ⥆ࡁᨻ⟇ࣂࢵࣇ࣮ࢆ☜❧ࡋࠊ⬤ᙅᛶᑐฎࡍࡁ 21 ࢪࡣୡ⏺⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡢ3ศࡢ2 ᘬࡁ⥆ࡁ㈉⊩… ୡ⏺: ᐇ㉁GDPᡂ㛗⋡ ୡ⏺⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡ࡢᐤᗘ㸸 2008ᖺ – 16ᖺ 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 㸦ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺ㸧 2015 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2016 2017 6.0 China ୰ᅜ Rest of Asia ࡑࡢࢪ Others ࡑࡢ ᪥ᮏ Japan United ⡿ᅜ States World ୡ⏺ 5.0 4.0 3.0 ⱥᅜ United Kingdom ⡿ᅜ United States ࣮ࣘࣟᅪ Euro area Emerging and ᪂⯆ᅜཬࡧ Developing Europe Ḣᕞ㏵ୖᅜ ࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ࢝ཬࡧ Latin America and the ࢝ࣜࣈᾏᆅᇦ Caribbean ࢪ Asia 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Proj.) 㸦᥎ ᐃ㸧 ฟᡤ㸸 IMFୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ㸦WEO㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ ฟᡤ㸸IMFୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ㸦WEO㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ 22 ࡋࡋࠊࢪ⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋࡣ࠸ࡃࡘࡢ せᅉࡼࡗ࡚ᅽ㏕ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ •ୡ⏺⤒῭ࡢᅇࡢᙅࡉ㈠᫆ࡢ㕌 •ᅜ㝿㔠⼥ໃࡢࢱࢺ •୰ᅜࡢࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫ •ᅜෆせᅉ ୖࢀࣜࢫࢡ㸸㍺ධᅜࡗ࡚ࡢ୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁ࠊ㈠᫆༠ᐃࡢ㐍ᒎ㺂 2016ᖺࡢ୰ᅜ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢຍ㏿ 23 ≉ࠊእ㟂ࡢᙅࡉࡀࢪࡢ㍺ฟᙳ㡪… ୡ⏺㍺ฟ㔞ఙࡧ⋡ࡢኚࡢᐤᗘ ୡ⏺ࡢ㍺ධ㔞ఙࡧ⋡ࡢኚࡢᐤᗘ 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 1.0 2009 2015 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -5.0 -5.0 United Euro ࡑࡢ Other ୰ᅜ China Asia ex. ࡑࡢ Other ⡿ᅜ Japan ᪥ᮏ ࣮ࣘࣟ ୰ᅜࠊ ᅪ ᪥ᮏࠊ ඛ㐍ᅜ States area AEs CHN, ᪂⯆ᅜ EMs ⤒῭ ᕞࠊ ᕷሙ JPN, ࢽ࣮ࣗ AUS, ࢪ࣮ࣛࣥ NZL ࢻࢆ㝖ࡃ ࢪ 2009 2015 United Euro ࡑࡢ Other ୰ᅜ China ୰ᅜࠊ Asia ex. ࡑࡢ Other ⡿ᅜ Japan ᪥ᮏ ࣮ࣘࣟ ᪥ᮏࠊ ᅪ ඛ㐍ᅜ States area AEs CHN, ᪂⯆ᅜ EMs ᕞࠊ ⤒῭ JPN, ᕷሙ ࢽ࣮ࣗ AUS, ࢪ࣮ࣛࣥ NZL ࢻࢆ㝖ࡃ ࢪ ฟᡤ㸸 IMFୡ⏺⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ㸦WEO㸧ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ⟬ᐃ 24 …㈨ᮏࣇ࣮ࣟⅭ࣮᭰ࣞࢺࡢᅽ㏕ࡀ⥆ࡁࠊ ᅜ㝿㔠⼥ໃࡣࢱࢺࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ୰ᅜࢆ㝖ࡃࢪ᪂⯆ᅜ: ㈨ᮏࣇ࣮ࣟ ୰ᅜࢆ㝖ࡃࢪ᪂⯆ᅜ: ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛࣭ࣜ࢜ ࣇ࣮ࣟ 㸦10൨ࢻࣝࠊࣉࣛࢫ=㈨ᮏὶධ㸧 ᾏእ┤᥋ᢞ㈨ FDI 㸦FDI㸧 60 㸦10൨ࢻࣝࠊࣉࣛࢫ=㈨ᮏὶධ㸧 Non - FDI FDI௨እ ᰴᘧ Equity 15 മๆ Debt 10 40 5 20 0 0 ฟᡤ㸸IMFࠊIFSࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࠊCEICࢹ࣮ࢱ࣭࢝ࣥࣃࢽ࣮ࠊ ࣊ࣂ࣮࣭ࢼࣜࢸࢡࢫࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ⟬ᐃ 2016M1 2016M3 2016ᖺ3᭶ 2015M7 2015ᖺ7᭶ 2015M1 2015ᖺ1᭶ 2014ᖺ7᭶ 2014M7 2014ᖺ1᭶ 2014M1 2013ᖺ1᭶ 2013M1 2015Q1 2015Q3 2015ᖺQ3 2014Q1 2014ᖺQ1 2013ᖺQ1 2013Q1 2012ᖺQ1 2012Q1 2011ᖺQ1 2011Q1 2010ᖺQ1 2010Q1 -15 2009ᖺQ1 2009Q1 -40 2008ᖺQ1 2008Q1 -10 2007ᖺQ1 2007Q1 -20 2013ᖺ7᭶ 2013M7 -5 ฟᡤ㸸ࣈ࣮࣒ࣝࣂ࣮ࢢࠊ࣊ࣂ࣮࣭ࢼࣜࢸࢡࢫࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ⟬ᐃ ὀ㸸ᰴᘧࡢ࢝ࣂࣞࢵࢪ㸸ࣥࢻࠊࣥࢻࢿࢩࠊࣇࣜࣆࣥࠊࢱ മๆࡢ࢝ࣂࣞࢵࢪ㸸ࣥࢻࠊࣥࢻࢿࢩࠊࢱ 25 ୰ᅜࡽࡢ₯ᅾⓗἼཬຠᯝࡣ ౫↛ࡋ࡚㢧ᅾ㸟 Ἴཬຠᯝࡢࢳࣕࢿࣝ㸸 •㈠᫆㸸 ୰ᅜྥࡅ୍ḟ⏘ရ୰㛫㈈ࡢ㍺ฟࡢῶᑡ •㔠⼥㸸 ࣎ࣛࢸࣜࢸࡢୖ᪼㈨ᮏὶฟ •୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠ㸸࠸ࡃࡘࡢ㍺ฟᅜࡣᝏᙳ㡪ࠊ㍺ධᅜࡣᜠ ᜨ •ዲᶵ㸸 ୰ᅜྥࡅᾘ㈝㈈ࠊࢧ࣮ࣅࢫཬࡧIT㛵㐃㍺ฟࠊປാ㞟⣙ᆺࢭࢡ ࢱ࣮ 26 ࡑࡢἼཬຠᯝᑐࡍࡿ ࢚ࢡࢫ࣏࣮ࢪ࣮ࣕࡣᅜࡼࡾ␗࡞ࡿࠋ ୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁ࡢࢳࣕࢿࣝ ୍ḟ⏘ရࡢ ⣧㍺ฟᅜ ㈠᫆ ࢳࣕࢿࣝ ୰ᅜࡢ᭱⤊㟂せᑐ ࡍࡿ㍺ฟࡀຍ౯್ ࣮࣋ࢫ࡛GDPࡢ4%㉸ 㔠⼥ ࢳࣕࢿࣝ ୰ᅜ࣭㤶 ᑐࡍࡿ㔠⼥മᶒ ࡢẚ⋡ࡀGDPࡢ10%㉸ࡲࡓࡣ ୡ⏺ࡢࣜࢫࢡᅇ㑊ᩄឤ 27 ୰ᅜࡢᾘ㈝ࢆ㍈ࡋࡓ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫࡣ ᢞ㈨㈈ࢆ୰ᚰࡍࡿ㍺ධࡢⴠࡕ㎸ࡳࢆᣍ࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ୰ᅜ: GDPࡢせ⣲༨ࡵࡿ㍺ධ㞟⣙ᗘࠊ 2011ᖺ 㸦ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 GDP ㍺ධㄪᩚ㟂せ(IAD) and IAD (real growth, in percentage points) (ᐇ㉁ᡂ㛗⋡ࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ) 20 24 GDP IAD 20 15 16 12 8 10 4 5 2015Q2 2014Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2012Q2 2011Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2009Q2 2008Q3 2007Q4 2007Q1 2006Q2 2005Q3 2004Q4 2004Q1 2003Q2 2002Q3 -5 2001Q4 0 2001Q1 ㍺ฟ Export ᢞ㈨ Investment Government ᨻᗓ ᾘ㈝ Consumption 0 Sources: Staff estimates. Source: "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown", by GH Hong, J Lee, C Liao, and D Seneviratne. 28 -0.05 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 New Zealand ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ Indonesia ࣥࢻࢿࢩ 㤶 Hong Kong SAR ࣥࢻ India ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝ Singapore Thailand ࢱ Malaysia ࣐࣮ࣞࢩ Australia ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Philippines ࣇࣜࣆࣥ Japan ᪥ᮏ 㡑ᅜ Korea 0 Taiwan Province of China ྎ‴ 㸦㍺ฟࡢຍ౯್ࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ࡑࡢ᪂⯆ᕷሙ EM Others EM-Com ᪂⯆ᕷሙ㸦୍ḟ⏘ရᅜ㸧 ඛ㐍ᅜ࣭ᆅᇦ AE NonAsia ࢪ௨እ Asia ࢪ ୡ⏺ World 㸦㍺ฟࡢຍ౯್ࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ࡘࡲࡾࠊ㈠᫆ࡢἼཬຠᯝࡀ㢧ⴭ࡛࠶ࡿᅜࡣ ୰ᅜࡢᢞ㈨㟂せࡢ࢚ࢡࢫ࣏࣮ࢪ࣮ࣕࡀẚ㍑ⓗ㧗࠸ࠋ ᥎ᐃ㡰: ㍺ฟ┦ᡭᅜᑐࡍࡿ୰ᅜࡢࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫࡢᙳ㡪 㸦୰ᅜࡢᾘ㈝[ᢞ㈨]ࡢ1ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺࡢቑຍ[ῶᑡ]ࡼࡿᙳ㡪ࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 0.04 0 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 ฟᡤ㸸2016ᖺ4᭶ࠊࢪኴᖹὒᒁ ᆅᇦ⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ㸦REO㸧 ὀ㸸᪂⯆ᕷሙ㸦୍ḟ⏘ရᅜ㸧㸻୍ḟ⏘ရࢆ㍺ฟࡍࡿ᪂⯆ᕷሙࠊࡑࡢ᪂⯆ᕷሙ㸻୍ḟ⏘ရࢆ㍺ฟࡋ࡞࠸ࡑࡢࡢ᪂⯆ᕷሙ 29 ࡑࡢἼཬຠᯝࢆ㏻ࡋ࡚ࠊ୰ᅜࡢࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫࡣ ㈠᫆┦ᡭᅜࡢ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ⴭࡋ࠸ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ㍺ฟ┦ᡭᅜࡢGDPᡂ㛗⋡ࡢᙳ㡪(2011ᖺ௨㝆ࡢᖹᆒ) 㸦ࣜࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆ⾜ࢃ࡞࠸ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ ୰ᅜࡢᾘ ᾘ㈝ቑຍ⋡ࡀ3.1ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺቑຍࡋࠊ୰ᅜࡢᢞ ᢞ㈨ቑຍ⋡ࡀ2.5ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺῶᑡ㸧 ᆅᇦࡈ 㸦ࢪࡢ㸧ᅜࡈ (Percentage points) 㸦(ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥ -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.1 -0.12 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 India ࣥࢻ ࣥࢻࢿࢩ Indonesia ࣒ ࢱ Thailand ࣋ࢺࢼ Vietnam Hong Kong㤶 SAR Australia ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ ᪥ᮏ Japan New Zealand ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ ฟᡤ㸸IMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ᥎ᐃ ࣇࣜࣆࣥ Philippines Malaysia ࣐࣮ࣞࢩ ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝ Singapore 㡑ᅜ Korea ࡑࡢ ฟᡤ㸸IMF ࢫࢱࢵࣇ᥎ᐃ ὀ㸸᪂⯆ᕷሙ㸦୍ḟ⏘ရᅜ㸧㸻୍ḟ⏘ရࢆ㍺ฟࡍࡿ᪂⯆ᕷሙࠊࡑ ࡢ᪂⯆ᕷሙ㸻୍ḟ⏘ရࢆ㍺ฟࡋ࡞࠸ࡑࡢࡢ᪂⯆ᕷሙ ྎ‴ -0.40 EM Other ᪂⯆ᕷሙ AE ඛ㐍ᅜ࣭ᆅᇦ Non-Asia ࢪ௨እ ࢪ Asia World ୡ⏺ -0.14 ᪂⯆ᕷሙ EM COM 㸦୍ḟ⏘ရᅜ㸧 㸦ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺ㸧 (Percentage points) -0.02 ࢺ㸧 0.10 0 30 ୰ᅜࡀࣂ࣮ࣜࣗࢳ࢙࣮ࣥࡢୖ⛣⾜ࡍࡿࡘࢀࠊ ປാ㞟⣙ᆺ⏕⏘⪅ዲᶵࡀゼࢀࡿࠋ ୰ᅜ㍺ฟ㸸せ⣲㞟⣙ᗘࡼࡿศ㢮 せ࡞ప౯᱁ၟရࡢᕷሙ༨᭷⋡ࡢኚ 㸦୰ᅜ㍺ฟ༨ࡵࡿྜࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 㸦2010ᖺ௨㝆ኚ⋡ࡀ᭱ࡢ5ࣧᅜ᭱ᑡࡢ5ࣧᅜࠊ ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺ㸧 60 50 2 40 1 0 30 -1 20 ࣃࣞࢫࠊᒚ≀ࠊᐙලࠊ ࣉࣛࢫࢳࢵࢡ⋵ල -2 10 -3 -4 ฟᡤ㸸ၟရ㈠᫆⤫ィࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ᥎ᐃ -5 ࢩࣗ Vietnam ࣋ࢺࢼ࣒ Bangladesh ࣂࣥࢢࣛࢹ Cambodia ࢝ࣥ࣎ࢪ Poland ࣏࣮ࣛࣥࢻ Mexico ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ ࢱ Thailand Hong Kong㤶 SAR Germany ࢻࢶ Japan ᪥ᮏ -6 ୰ᅜ China Raw material intensive ཎᮦᩱ㞟⣙ᆺ Capital intensive ㈨ᮏ㞟⣙ᆺ Easy to imitate research intensive ᶍೌࡀᐜ᫆࡞ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ㞟⣙ᆺ Difficult to imitate research intensive ᶍೌࡀᅔ㞴࡞ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ㞟⣙ᆺ Labor intensive ປാ㞟⣙ᆺ 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 0 ฟᡤ㸸ၟရ㈠᫆⤫ィࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ᥎ᐃ 31 㔠⼥ࢳࣕࣥࢿࣝ࠾ࡅࡿ୰ᅜࡢ┦㛵㛵ಀࡣ㸽 ┦㛵㛵ಀ: ࢪᕷሙᑐ ᪥ᮏ ୰ᅜ Pre-GFC Post-GFC Pre-GFC Since June 2015 2015ᖺ6᭶௨㝆 Post-GFC ⡿ᅜ Since June 2015 2015ᖺ6᭶௨㝆 0.60 Pre-GFC Post-GFC Since June 2015 2015ᖺ6᭶௨㝆 0.45 0.35 0.40 0.50 0.30 0.35 0.25 0.40 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 Equity ᰴᘧ Bond മๆ FX Ⅽ᭰ 0.00 Equity ᰴᘧ Bond മๆ FX Ⅽ᭰ Equity ᰴᘧ Bond മๆ Note: ࢪㅖᅜࡣࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜࠊࣥࢻࠊࣥࢻࢿࢪࠊ㡑ᅜࠊ࣐࣮ࣞࢩࠊࣇࣜࣆࣥࠊࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝࠊྎ‴ࠊࢱࠊࢽ࣮ࣗ ࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻࢆྵࡴࠋ 32 ୰ᅜࡢ㈠᫆ୖࡢ⤖ࡧࡘࡁࡀࡁࡃస⏝: ᙉᅛ࡞ᅜࡗ࡚ࡣࠊ㔠⼥ୖࡢἼཬຠᯝࡣቑᇶㄪࠋ ୰ᅜࡽࡢࢩࣙࢵࢡ㉳ᅉࡍࡿᆅᇦࡢ ᰴᘧᕷሙࡢ᥎⛣ (ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ) ୰ᅜࡽࡢࢩࣙࢵࢡ㉳ᅉࡍࡿᆅᇦࡢᰴᘧᕷሙ ࡢ᥎⛣㸦୰ᅜࡢ㈠᫆ୖࡢ⤖ࡧࡘࡁࡢᙉࡉࡼ ࡿศ㢮㸧 㸦ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ࢪᰴᘧࡢ᥎⛣ Asia Equity Movement ㈠᫆ୖࡢ⤖ࡧࡘࡁࡀᙉᅛ Strong Trade Links ᪥ḟࡢᶆ‽೫ᕪ Daily Standard Deviation 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 ୡ⏺㔠⼥ Pre-GFC ༴ᶵ๓ ୡ⏺㔠⼥ Post-GFC ༴ᶵᚋ 2015ᖺ6᭶௨㝆 Since June 2015 Moderate Trade Links ㈠᫆ୖࡢ⤖ࡧࡘࡁࡀ୰⛬ᗘ ୡ⏺㔠⼥ Pre-GFC ༴ᶵ๓ ୡ⏺㔠⼥ Post-GFC ༴ᶵᚋ 2015ᖺ6᭶௨㝆 Since June 2015 ฟᡤ㸸 2016ᖺ4᭶ࠊࢪኴᖹὒᒁ ᆅᇦ⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ㸦REO㸧 ὀ㸸ୡ⏺㔠⼥༴ᶵ๓ = 2001ᖺ1᭶ – 2007ᖺ12᭶ࠊୡ⏺㔠⼥༴ᶵᚋ = 2010ᖺ6᭶ – 2015ᖺ6᭶ࠊ2015ᖺ6᭶௨㝆 = 2015ᖺ7᭶ – 2016ᖺ1᭶ ㈠᫆ୖࡢ⤖ࡧࡘࡁࡣຍ౯್࣮࣋ࢫ࡛ࡢ୰ᅜࡢ᭱⤊㟂せᑐࡍࡿ㍺ฟᇶ࡙ࡃࠋ 33 ᠱᛕࡍࡁࣜࢫࢡࡣ㸽 ୡ⏺㔠⼥༴ᶵᚋࡢࢪࡢຊᙉ࠸⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡣ Ẹ㛫മົቑຍࢆ⫼ᬒࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ ᪂⯆ᕷሙᴗ: ₯ᅾⓗࣜࢫࢡࢆ᭷ࡍࡿമົ ࢪኴᖹὒᒁ⟶㎄ᅜࡢമົᑐGDPẚࡢᖹᆒ 㸦ࣥࢱࣞࢫࢺ࣭࢝ࣂࣞࢵࢪ࣭ࣞࢩ࢜ࡀ1ᮍ‶ࡢᴗࡢമົࡀ⥲㢠༨ࡵ ࡿẚ⋡ࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 㸦GDPᇶ࡙ࡃຍ㔜ᖹᆒ㸧 Public බⓗ 450 Private Ẹ㛫 2010 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E 20 350 300 15 250 200 10 150 100 5 50 CHN ୰ᅜ ᪥ᮏ JPN ࡑࡢ other (ࢪ REO14 ㅖᅜ) LICs పᡤᚓᅜ 2013 2013 2005 2014 2005 2014 2005 2014 2005 2005 0 ኴᖹὒ PICs ᓥᕋᅜ 0 China ୰ᅜ Asia excluding Latin America Ḣᕞࠊ୰ᮾࠊ Europe, ୰ᅜࢆ㝖ࡃ ࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ Middle East, China ࢝ ࢪ ࣇࣜ࢝ and Africa ฟᡤ㸸2016ᖺ4᭶ࠊᅜ㝿㔠⼥Ᏻᐃᛶሗ࿌᭩㸦GFSR㸧 ὀ㸸୰ᅜࢆ㝖ࡃࢪ = ࣥࢻࠊࣥࢻࢿࢩࠊ࣐࣮ࣞࢩࠊ ࣇࣜࣆࣥࠊࢱ 34 ㄢ㢟ࡣࡶ㸽 ࢪࡢᡤᚓ᱁ᕪࡢᣑࡀᡂ㛗ࡢ㜼ᐖ࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡶ… ᆅᇦẚ㍑: ᡤᚓ᱁ᕪ ࢪせᅜ: ṇࢪࢽಀᩘ 㸦ṇࢪࢽಀᩘࠊ1990ᖺࡢ௨㝆ࡢኚࠊ ᆅᇦయࡢ༢⣧ᖹᆒ㸧 㸦ࢪࢽ࣏ࣥࢺ㸧 2013ᖺ㸦ࡲࡓࡣ┤ 2013 (or Latest) ㏆㸧 60 Sub-Saharan Africa ࢧࣈࢧࣁ࣭ࣛࣇࣜ ࢝ Latin America and the Caribbean ࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ࢝ཬࡧ࢝ࣜࣈᾏᆅ ᇦ ୰ᮾཬࡧࣇࣜ࢝ Middle East and North Africa 1990 1990ᖺ 50 40 30 ASEAN-5 ࢭࣥ5ࣧᅜ 20 0 LICs Asia ࢪపᡤᚓᅜ NIEs ᪂⯆ᕤᴗ⤒῭ᆅᇦ Industrial Asia ࢪᕤᴗᅜ Emerging and Ḣᕞ᪂⯆ᅜ࣭㏵ୖᅜ Developing Europe India ࣥࢻ China ୰ᅜ -5 0 5 10 15 20 ฟᡤ㸸ᶆ‽ࡉࢀࡓୡ⏺ࡢᡤᚓ᱁ᕪࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸦SWIID㸧Version 5.0ࠊWEOࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ⟬ᐃ Korea 㡑ᅜ Mongolia ࣔࣥࢦࣝ ࢿࣃ࣮ࣝl Nepal ࣇࢪ࣮ Fiji ࢱ Thailand ࣐࣮ࣞࢩ Malaysia ࣇࣜࣆࣥ Philippines ᪥ᮏ Japan ྎ‴ Taiwan Province of China New Zealand ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥ ࢻ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Australia Lao ࣛ࢜ࢫ. P.D.R. ࣋ࢺࢼ࣒ Vietnam ࣥࢻࢿࢩ Indonesia ࢝ࣥ࣎ࢪ Cambodia Sri Lanka ࢫࣜࣛࣥ࢝ ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝ Singapore Bangladesh ࣂࣥࢢࣛࢹࢩࣗ Hong Kong SAR 㤶 ࣥࢻ India ࣃࣉࢽ࣮ࣗࢠࢽ Papua New Guinea ୰ᅜ China 10 OECD Decreasing పୗ Increasing ୖ᪼ ฟᡤ㸸ᶆ‽ࡉࢀࡓୡ⏺ࡢᡤᚓ᱁ᕪࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸦SWIID㸧Version 5.0ࠊIMFࢫࢱࢵࣇ⟬ᐃ 35 ࢪࡢ᭦࡞ࡿ㣕㌍ྥࡅ࡚㸸 Ἴ‶ࡕࡓࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ⎔ቃ࡛ࡢ⯦ྲྀࡾࢆ࠺ࡍࡁ㸽 ࢪࡢᴫほ •⤒ᖖᨭࡢ࣏ࢪࢩࣙࣥࡀᙉࡃࠊእ㈌‽ഛ㧗ࡢࣂࢵࣇࡶࡁ࠸ •ࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡀపࡃࠊᚲせᛂࡌୗࡆࡢవᆅࡀ࠶ࡿ •௨๓ࡼࡾ࣐ࢡࣟࣉ࣮ࣝࢹࣥࢫࡢᯟ⤌ࡳࡀᙉ ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉ࡼࡾࠊୡ⏺ࡢࣜࢫࢡᑐࡍࡿᆅᇦࡢ⪏ᛶࢆࡉࡽ ᙉ࡛ࡁࡿ 36 ࢪࡢࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡣప࠸Ỉ‽␃ࡲࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ ᚲせᛂࡌୗࡆࡢవᆅࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ ࢪ㸸ᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘཬࡧᮇᚅࣥࣇࣞ⋡ ࢪ㸸ᐇ㉁ᨻ⟇㔠 㸦๓ᖺẚࠊࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 ┤㏆ Latest 2016ᖺ(period 㸦ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ᥎ᐃ್㸧 2016 average projection) 1 1 ᖺึ᮶ࡢᮇᚅࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡢኚ㸦ྑ㍈㸧 Year-to-date change in inflation expectations (right scale) 6 㸦ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ㸧 4 2 ┤㏆ Latest 1 0 2 -1 0 ฟᡤ㸸2016ᖺ4᭶ࠊAPD REO 1 ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣏ࣥࢺ ὀ㸸ࣥࢻࡢᮇᚅࣥࣇࣞ⋡ཬࡧ2016ᖺࡢ᥎ᐃ್ࡣᖺᗘ࣮࣋ࢫ India ࣥࢻ Indonesia ࣥࢻࢿࢩ Philippines ࣇࣜࣆࣥ Malaysia ࣐࣮ࣞࢩ New Zealand ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ ྎ‴ ࣋ࢺࢼ࣒ Vietnam ୰ᅜ China 㡑ᅜ Korea ࢱ Thailand ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Australia -3 Japan ᪥ᮏ ࣥࢻ India Indonesia ࣥࢻࢿࢩ Malaysia ࣐࣮ࣞࢩ Hong Kong SAR 㤶 ྎ‴ Taiwan Province of China ୰ᅜ China Australia ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Korea 㡑ᅜ Philippines ࣇࣜࣆࣥ Vietnam ࣋ࢺࢼ࣒ New Zealand ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ Japan ᪥ᮏ ࢱ Thailand -2 Singapore ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝ -2 2014ᖺ6᭶ June 2014 ฟᡤ㸸2016ᖺ4᭶ࠊARD REO ὀ㸸ᐇ㉁ᨻ⟇㔠ࡣࠊࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫ࣭࢚ࢥࣀ࣑ࢡࢫࡼࡿ1ᖺᚋࡢ ࣥࣇࣞ⋡ண ᇶ࡙ࡃࠋ᪥ᮏࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ↓ᢸಖࢥ࣮ࣝ⩣᪥≀㔠 ࢆ⏝ࠋࣥࢻࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ3ࣧ᭶≀㈈ົ┬▷ᮇドๆࡢ㔠ࢆᨻ ⟇㔠ࡢ௦ࢃࡾ⏝ࠋ 37 ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉ࡀࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝࣜࢫࢡᑐࡍࡿ⪏ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࠊ ₯ᅾᡂ㛗⋡ࢆୗᨭ࠼ࡍࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ ᭱㏆ࡢᩘ: •୰ᅜ㸸㡸㔠㔠⮬⏤ࠊ᪂ࡋ࠸Ⅽ᭰┦ሙไᗘࡢᑟධࠊᆅ᪉ᨻᗓࡢ㈈ᨻᩚഛ ࢆ┠ⓗࡋࡓ㈈ᨻᨵ㠉 •ࣥࢻ㸸 ⿵ຓ㔠ࡢぢ┤ࡋࠊ㎰ᴗᨵ㠉㸦᪂ࡓ࡞స≀ಖ㝤ࢫ࣮࣒࢟࡞㸧ࠊᰂ ㌾࡞ࣥࣇࣞ┠ᶆࡢ᥇⏝ •᪥ᮏ㸸ዪᛶࡢປാຊཧຍࡢቑࠊᴗ⤫ᨵ㠉 •࣐࣮ࣞࢩ㸸 ⇞ᩱ⿵ຓ㔠ࡢ᧔ᗫࠊ≀ရ࣭ࢧ࣮ࣅࢫ⛯㸦GST㸧ࡢᑟධ •ࢱ㸸 ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮౯᱁ᨵ㠉ࠊ୰ᮇⓗࣥࣇࣞ┠ᶆࡢᑟධ 38 ࢪ࠾ࡅࡿせ࡞ᨻ⟇ㄢ㢟ࡣ㸽 せㄢ㢟 ᨻ⟇ᥦゝ ୰ᅜ ಙࡢቑຍ ᪥ᮏ ࣜࣇ࣮ࣞࢩࣙࣥ ㈈ᨻࡢᣢ⥆ྍ⬟ᛶ ࣥࢻ ᴗ㖟⾜ࢭࢡࢱ࣮ࡢࡦࡎ ࡳ ᢞ㈨ࢆಁ㐍ࡉࡏࡿࡓࡵࡢᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉ᑟධࡢຍ㏿ࠊ ᕞཬࡧ ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ ࣛࣥࢻ ୍ḟ⏘ရ౯᱁పୗࡢ㐺ᛂ ༠ㄪⓗ࡞㔠⼥ཬࡧ㈈ᨻᨻ⟇ࠊᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉 ࢭࣥ 4ࣧᅜ ࢪ ࣇࣟࣥࢸ ㅖᅜ ᑠᅜ እ㒊⎔ቃࡢࡦࡗ㏕ ಙ㓄ศࡢྥୖࠊᴗ㖟⾜ࡢ⪏ᛶࡢᙉ ⥲ྜⓗࠊ㐃ᦠࡋࡓᨻ⟇ࣃࢵࢣ࣮ࢪ ᴗ㸭㖟⾜ࡢ⪏ᛶࡢᙉ ᨻ⟇ࣂࢵࣇ࣮ࡢ☜❧ᵓ㐀ᨵ㠉ࡢ⥅⥆ࠊᚲせᛂࡌ ࣐ࢡ࣭ࣟࣉ࣮ࣝࢹࣥࢩࣕࣝᨻ⟇ࢆά⏝ ࣐ࢡࣟ⎔ቃࡢ⬤ᙅᛶ ࣐ࢡࣟᨻ⟇ࡢᯟ⤌ࡳࢆࡉࡽᙉ ⮬↛⅏ᐖ㸭Ẽೃኚື ཬࡧࣜࢫࢡᅇ㑊 ⪏ᛶࡢ☜❧ཬࡧ₯ᅾᡂ㛗⋡ࡢᙉ 39 ࡑࡋ࡚᭱ᚋ… •ࢪࡣ࡞࠾ୡ⏺ࡢᡂ㛗࢚ࣥࢪ࡛ࣥ࠶ࡿࡀࠊእ㒊⎔ቃࡣࡼࡾᅔ㞴 ࡞ࡾࡘࡘ࠶ࡿࠋ •ᨻ⟇ᙜᒁ⪅ࡣಙࡢᛴ㏿࡞ቑຍᴗ࣭㖟⾜ࡢ⬤ᙅᛶᑐᛂࡋࠊᵓ 㐀ᨵ㠉ࢆᩒ⾜ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋ •ୗࢀࣜࢫࢡࡀ⌧ᐇ࡞ࡗࡓሙྜഛ࠼ࠊࢪࡣά⏝ྍ⬟࡞ᙉຊ ࡞ࣂࢵࣇᵓ⠏ࢆ⥅⥆ࡍࡁ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 40