EUの拡大政策

Lecture #5 EU’s Enlargement Policy EUの拡大政策
基礎比較経済論 11 June 2012
The rules of enlargement
1.  Who can join the EU? ローマ条約に書かれている加盟条件 •  Art. 237 of the Treaty of Rome (1957): “any European country with an economy comparable to the member countries’ (EU‐6) economies” 2. Who decides on enlarging the EU? •  The leaders of the member countries unanimously (for example, Charles De Gaulle’s veto of the BriQsh applicaQon for membership in the 1960s) •  Since 1993, the European Parliament too •  RaQficaQons of the accession treaty by the naQonal parliaments of the member countries 各加盟国議会による加盟条約の批准
The history of enlargement Part I: from EU‐6 to EU‐15
•  Enlargement #1 (1973): the UK, Denmark and Ireland (but Norway’s membership failed) New membership criteria 新しい加盟条件: parliamentary democracy and respect for human rights 議会民主主義と人権尊重 •  Enlargement #2 (1981): Greece •  Enlargement #3 (1986): Spain and Portugal The reunificaQon of Germany in 1990 ドイツ統一 •  Enlargement #4 (1995): Austria, Sweden and Finland
Why do countries wish to join the EU? The moQves of candidate countries 加盟候補国の動機
MoQves for joining the EU: Part I
•  (1) Access to a larger market •  (2) EU subsidies for farmers, poor regions and less developed member countries  the common agricultural policy (CAP), the regional and cohesion policy EUの共通農業政策、及び地域・結束政策 •  (3) PoliQcal stability and consolidaQon of democracy  useful for abracQng FDI The importance of EU’s condiQonality (using “carrots and sQcks” 飴と鞭) toward candidate countries
MoQves for joining EU: Part 2
•  Less developed countries hope to use EU membership to catch up with advanced countries 一人当りGDPで先進国に追い付くため The enlargement to Eastern Europe
MoQves for joining the EU: Part 3
The moQves of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries who were under communist rule from 1945 to 1989 中東欧諸国、旧共産主義国 •  (4) To leave the Russian sphere of geopoliQcal influence in Eastern Europe ロシアの支配圏を逃れる •  CEE countries prefer to be integrated in the Western geopoliQcal sphere for both economic reasons (catch up with advanced countries) and poliQcal reasons (democracy, military security, problems with minoriQes) 安全保障問題、少数民族問題
EU’s support for the CEE countries afer the fall of communism
•  1. Opening the EU market for imports from these countries (the so‐called “Europe agreements” in the early 1990s 欧州協定） •  2. Financial assistance (the PHARE program) •  3. Technical assistance (the twinning program) •  4. Giving them the prospect of EU membership if they fulfill certain condiQons （e.g. “the Copenhagen criteria” コペンハーゲン加盟条件）
The Copenhagen criteria (June 1993)
•  1. Economic criteria: “funcQoning market economy and ability to deal with compeQQve pressures within the EU” 機能している市場経済の存在、EU域内での競争圧
力や市場諸力に耐えうるだけの適応性を有すること •  2. PoliFcal criteria: “democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and protecQon of minoriQes” •  3. Legal criteria: “implement the acquis communautaire” EU法を国内法に取り入れること •  4. “The capacity to absorb new members” 現加盟国が新加盟国を受け入れる余裕があること
Stages of the Eastern enlargement
•  1995‐1996: candidate country applicaQons •  1997: Commission’s report on the readiness of candidate countries 加盟候補国と交渉を開始できるかの判断 •  1997‐1999: the leaders of the member countries decide to start accession negoQaQons with the CEE candidates 加盟交渉開始の決定 •  2002‐2006: signing of the accession treaQes 加盟条約の調印 •  2002‐2006: raQficaQons and referenda 加盟条約の批准（議会決議、及び国民投票）
Results of the Eastern enlargement (benefits for the CEE countries)
•  Rapid catch‐up with the advanced countries (the EU‐15) in GDP per capita thanks to the increase of exports and FDI 一人当りGDPの上昇 •  FDI  new and beber paid jobs thanks to the establishment of subsidiaries by Western European companies and banks 雇用の増加 （西欧企業や銀行による子会社の設立） •  EU subsidies to farmers and poorer regions in CEE countries 農家や低開発地域に対するEU補助金 •  Many Eastern Europeans moved to work and seble in the EU‐15 (esp. to Germany, Austria, UK, Ireland, Spain, Italy) 西欧諸国での就職、移住 Results of the Eastern enlargement (problems for the CEE countries I)
•  Problems: credit booms and asset bubbles in some CEE countries (esp. the BalQcs) in 2002‐2007 過剰融資、海外から借り入れた資金で生活水準を上昇させた •  A large part of the foreign capital was invested in construcQon and real estate  housing and land bubbles 住宅・土地バブル •  Problems: large current account deficits and external debts 多大な貿易・経常収支赤字、対外債務 The impact of the global financial crisis (2008‐2009)
•  Most of the new members were hit hard by the global financial crisis •  Burst of asset bubbles, fall of exports, withdrawal of foreign capital バブル崩壊、輸出の減少、外国資本の撤退 •  (like Greece, Ireland and Portugal today) Some new members had to be rescued by emergency loans from the EU and the IMF •  In parQcular, Hungary, Latvia and Romania Results of the Eastern enlargement (benefits for the EU‐15 countries)
•  Western European companies and banks benefited from larger sales and profits in the CEE countries 西欧の企業や銀行にとってのメリット •  Western European consumers benefited from cheaper goods and services coming from Eastern Europe 西欧の消費者にとってのメリット •  In spite of that, there is much criFcism of the Eastern enlargement in the EU‐15 countries •  Fears of job losses due to: (1) relocaQons of EU‐15 companies to CEE countries and (2) the influx of Eastern European workers 中東欧への工場移転、中東欧労働者の流入により仕事がなくな
るのではないかの懸念
Protests in Germany over the relocaQon of a Nokia factory to Romania
French fears of immigraQon from the CEE countries
•  The rejecQon of the European ConsQtuQon by the French in the 2005 referendum and “the Polish plumber” 欧州憲法批准の失敗と「ポーランド人の配管工」 Prospects for future EU enlargement I: Turkey and the Western Balkans
Prospects for future EU enlargement II: Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova
A quiz for advanced learners
•  There are so many countries that have joined or wish to join EU but have any countries or regions actually lef EU? •  How can a member country leave the EU? •  What’s the main difference in the economic relaQons of the EU with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein, on the one hand, and with Switzerland, on the other? QuesQons for discussion
•  Why did rich countries (the EU‐15) agree to accept much poorer countries from Central and Eastern Europe (the EU‐10)? •  Do you think the Eastern enlargement was a success or no? •  Should the EU expand further? Where does Europe end? •  Should the EU accept Muslim countries like Turkey or Bosnia and Herzegovina? Or, should the EU remain a club of just ChrisQan countries? •  How about Russia? Can Russia become a EU member? QuesQons for discussion for the next class •  Pros and cons of further enlargement of the EU (for example, whether Turkey should join EU) •  Pros and cons of immigraQon in the EU (for example, whether the EU should/could become a “melQng pot” like the US)