Market Review

4．Market Review
74
Economic Trends in Japan
* The economy rapidly recovered after administration change.
120
Composite Index / Leading
Index (2010 = 100)
114.2
110.7
110
104.3
107.2
100
98.3
90
88.7
80
Economic Indicator: Synthetic economic indicator created by integrating
integrating a range of key
indicators sensitive to various economic activities, including production
production and employment.
There are two indicators: DI and CI. DI shows the direction of change
change in the economy
while CI indicates the strength of economic fluctuations. Each indicator
indicator has three types of
associated indicators: leading, coincident and lagging indicators.
indicators. Leading indicators
show future trends.
The reference index CI was upgraded to the official index in April
April 2008.
77.1
70
2000
1月 2001
1月 2002
1月 2003
1月 2004
1月 2005
1月 2006
1月 2007
1月 2008
1月 2009
1月 2010
1月 2011
1月 Jan.
2012年
1月 2013
1月
2013年6月
Jan. 年
2000
Jan. 年
2001
Jan. 年
2002
Jan. 年
2003
Jan. 年
2004
Jan. 年
2005
Jan. 年
2006
Jan. 年
2007
Jan. 年
2008
Jan. 年
2009
Jan. 年
2010
Jan. 年
2011
2012
Jun.年2013
Source: Cabinet Office.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
75
Price Index
* All price indices turned to year-on-year increases.
(%)
(YoY Change)
9
* Residential rents follow the CPI, while office / retail rents follow the CSPI.
6
3
0
-3
-6
Corporate Services
Price Index (CSPI)
Corporate Goods
Price Index (CGPI)
Consumer Price
Index (CPI)
-9
Jan.年
2000
Jan.年
2001
Jan.年
2002
Jan.年
2003
Jan.年
2004
Jan.年
2005
Jan.年
2006
Jan.年
2007
Jan.年
2008
Jan.年
2009
Jan.年
2010
Jan.年
2011
Jan.年
2012
2000
1月 2001
1月 2002
1月 2003
1月 2004
1月 2005
1月 2006
1月 2007
1月 2008
1月 2009
1月 2010
1月 2011
1月 2012
1月 2013
2013年7月
1月
Jul.
年2013
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, BOJ.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on September 13, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
76
Regional Economic Trends
* Economy saw upward revisions in almost all regions.
Apr. 2013 Survey
(Jan. – Mar. 2013)
Jul. 2013 Survey
(Apr. – Jun. 2013)
上方修正
Upward revision
不変
Unchanged
下方修正
Downward revision
Source: Ministry of Finance.
* Comparison of 11 regions
from the previous trend
Upward revision
10
Unchanged
1
Downward
revision
0
*Color coding on the map shows the direction of the economy, not the prefecture’s current economic status.
In general, the regional economy is “moderately picking up in the April – June period in 2013. There
are signs of recovery as there are reports of export environment and consumer sentiment improving.”
(Ministry of Finance, Summary Report of Economic Conditions in Jurisdictions of Finance Bureaus in Japan, July 30, 2013)
Many regions noted that the economy had been picking up against the background that domestic
demand had increased its resilience with the improvement in household and business sentiment and
that overseas demand was heading toward a pick-up. (Bank of Japan, Regional Economic Report, July 4, 2013)
*Comments and comparison by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on September 13, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
77
Unemployment Rate
* Unemployment rate is steadily decreasing.
東京都
Tokyo
(%) <Annual average>
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
全国
Nationwide
5.6
4.8
5.4
4.1
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.9
3.4
1997
4.5
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
(%) <Quarterly average>
6.3
5.4
4.9
4.2
4.2
3.7
Prepared on September 13, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Jan.-Mar. Apr.-Jun.
2013
2013
Average Average
20
13年
1～
3月
20
12年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
2012
Average
平均
4～
6月
平均
平均
平均
均
20
10年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
2011
Average
20
11年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
2010
Average
平
平均
平均
Jan.-Mar.
2009
Average
20
09年
1～
3月
平均
Jan.-Mar.
2008
Average
20
08年
1～
3月
平均
Jan.-Mar.
2007
Average
20
07年
1～
3月
平均
Source: “Labor Force Survey” by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Jan.-Mar.
2006
Average
20
06年
1～
3月
平均
Jan.-Mar.
2005
Average
20
05年
1～
3月
平均
Jan.-Mar.
2004
Average
20
04年
1～
3月
均
Jan.-Mar.
2003
Average
20
03年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
2002
Average
20
02年
1～
3月
20
01年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
2001
Average
平
平均
平均
Jan.-Mar.
2000
Average
20
00年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
1999
Average
19
99年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
1998
Average
平均
3.4
19
98年
1～
3月
19
97年
1～
3月
Jan.-Mar.
1997
Average
6.1
5.5
5.9
平均
平均
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
3.9
4.0
3.53.4
3.0
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
78
Employment Trends in Japan (Job Openings)
Job to Application Ratio (Seasonally Adjusted)
* Tokyo improved to as high as 1.37x, close to the level in 2005.
(x)
2.5
Nationwide
全国
2.0
0.83
0.77
0.60
0.51
0.5
Osaka
大阪府
0.92
0.80
0.63
0.60
1.5
1.0
Tokyo
東京都
Aichi
愛知県
1.67
2.02
1.38
1.15
1.10
0.81
0.79
0.60
0.47
0.46
0.43
0.60
1.31
1.06
1.37
1.35
0.97
0.94
0.0
Jul.
2001
Jul.
2002
Jul.
2003
Jul.
2004
Jul.
2005
Jul.
2006
Jul.
2007
Jul.
2008
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
2011
Jul.
Jul.
2013
Jul.年
2002
Jul. 年
2003
Jul. 年
2004
Jul.年
2005
Jul.年
2006
Jul. 年
2007
Jul.年
2008
Jul. 2009
2009
Jul. 2010
2010
Jul. 年
2011
Jul. 2012
2012
Jul.年
2001
Jul. 年
2013
2001
7月 2002
7月 2003
7月 2004
7月 2005
7月 2006
7月 2007
7月 2008
7月 2009
7月 2010
7月 2011
7月 2012
7月 2013
7月
年
年
年
Active Job Openings / Job Applications in Tokyo
* The number of job openings has been continuously increasing since 2010.
(Number of people)
400,000
350,000
Active
Job Openings有効求職者数
有効求人数
有効求職者数
Job Applications
335,793
274,756
300,000
250,000
296,889
228,465
200,000
150,000
259,781
235,283
175,952
100,000
188,882
217,242
161,280
50,000
0
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
2010
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
2013
Jul. 2002
2002
Jul. 2003
2003
Jul. 2004
2004
Jul. 2005
2005
Jul. 2006
2006
Jul. 2007
2007
Jul. 2008
2008
Jul. 2009
2009
Jul. 年
2010
Jul. 2011
2011
Jul. 2012
2012
Jul. 2001
2001
Jul. 年
2013
2001
7月 Jul.
2002
7月 2004
7月 2005
7月 2006
7月 2007
7月 2008
7月 2009
7月 2010
7月 2011
7月 2012
7月 2013
7月
年
年7月 2003
年
年
年
年
年
年
年
年
年
Source: “Employment Service” by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on September 13, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
79
Office Leasing Market Overview (1):
Vacancy Rate by Market
* While the nationwide vacancy rate is on an improving trend, Tokyo’s rate is at a lower level. Shibuya Ward enters 3% range.
(%)
30
Jun. 2012
2012年6月
Jun. 2013
2013年6月
25
19.6
20
17.4
17.0
16.3
15
12.8
12.7
11.8
10.5
10
9.2
6.5
5
11.0
9.8
8.4
7.9
7.8
10.1
10.0 10.0
12.0
11.8
10.6
9.6
9.6
7.9
7.2
6.8
5.3
3.3
0
Shibuya
渋谷区
Ward
5区
Tokyo
主要
Central 5
Wards
Source: CBRE K.K.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
23区
Tokyo
東京
23 Wards
Yokohama
横浜市
Osaka
大阪市
Kyoto
京都市
Kobe
神戸市
Nagoya
名古屋市
Sapporo
札幌市
Sendai
仙台市
Kanazawa
金沢市
Hiroshima
広島市
Takamatsu
高松市
Fukuoka
福岡市
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
80
Office Leasing Market Overview (2): Vacancy Rate and Average Assumed
Closing Rent of Three Major Cities (A Grade Buildings)
* Closing rents are on an increasing trend in Tokyo as its vacancy rate decreased.
Vacancy
(%)
Monthly Average Estimated
Closing Rents per Tsubo (¥)
Average Assumed Closing Rent
20
45,000
Vacancy Rate
17.7
18
40,000
15.0
16
14
29,500
12
29,900
30,600
30,000
10.3
10.8
10
7.3
8
19,100
18,650
22,500
22,250
22,200
18,950
15,000
3.1
4
2.5
2
0
11.6
12.6
Tokyo Central 5 Wards
A Grade
13.6
11.6
12.6
Osaka
A Grade
13.6
11.6
25,000
20,000
5.5
5.5
6
4
35,000
12.6
13.6
10,000
5,000
Nagoya
A Grade
Source: CBRE K.K.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on September 13, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
81
Office Leasing Market Overview (3): Office Rent Index
* Existing contracted rent in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area continues to slightly decrease.
Year 2005＝100
125
Office Rent Index (Corporate Services Price Index)
120
（国）
(Nationwide)
(Tokyo
Metropolitan Area)
（東京圏）
115
（大阪圏）
(Osaka
Metropolitan Area)
（名古屋圏）
(Nagoya
Metropolitan Area)
110
110.8
企業向けサービス
(Corporate価格指数
Services Price Index)
(Corporate
Goods Price Index)
企業物価指数
105.0
105
100
96.3
95
93.9
92.0
90
87.7
86.7
85
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jul.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jul.
Jan.
2013.07
2000.01
2001.01
2002.01
2003.01
2004.01
2005.01
2007.01
2009.01
2011.01
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006.01
2006
2007 2008.01
2008
2009 2010.01
2010
2011 2012.01
2012 2013.01
2013
2000
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on information from the BOJ website.
* The Office Rent Index is calculated based on contracted rents, rather than newly asking rents.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
82
Office Leasing Market Overview (4):
Indexed Office Rent and Retail Rent Comparison
* Unlike office rents, the rents of retail properties are less affected by economic fluctuations.
120
Year 2005＝100
115
110
105
100
95
Office Rent (Tokyo Metropolitan Area)
93.9
93.8
Retail Rent (Nationwide)
90
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jul.
Jan. 2000
2000 2001.01
Jan. 2001
2001 2002.01
Jan. 2002
2002 2003.01
Jan. 2003
2003 2004.01
Jan. 2004
2004 2005.01
Jan. 2005
2005 2006.01
Jan. 2006
2006 2007.01
Jan. 2007
2007 2008.01
Jan. 2008
2008 2009.01
Jan. 2009
2009 2010.01
Jan. 2010
2010 2011.01
Jan. 2011
2011 2012.01
Jan. 2012
2012 2013.01
Jul. 2013
2013
2000.01
2013.07
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on information from the BOJ website.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
83
Office Leasing Market Overview (5):
Business Sentiment
* Business sentiments on both vacancy and rent levels clearly show an improving trend.
Business Sentiment on Vacancy Levels in Tokyo (Now vs. 3 Months Later)
Occupancy and Asking Rents in 5 Central Wards of Tokyo
Average Office Asking Rents (¥/Month/Tsubo)
Occupancy (%)
60
100
20,000
40
95
18,750
20
90
17,500
0
85
16,250
-20
80
15,000
-40
75
千代田区
Chiyoda
中央区
Chuo
Minato
港区
新宿区
Shinjuku
渋谷区
Shibuya
23
23区
wards
13,750
オフィス平均募集賃料
Average
Office Asking Rents
オフィス稼働率
Occupancy
-60
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul. Apr.
Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. 7月Jul. Apr.
7月Jul.
7月
年4月
2013
994年 1994
2006年 2006
2005年 2005
2007年 2007
2004年 2004
2011年 2011
1995年 1995
2003年 2003
2010年 2010
2012年 2012
2002年 2002
2001年 2001
2000年 2000
1
2009年 2009
1993年 1993
2008年 2008
1999年 1999
1998年 1998
1997年 1997
1996年 1996
2002
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 2013
Source: Tokyo Building Owners and Managers Association
70
12,500
2002年3月 2003
3月 2004
3月 2005
3月 2006
3月 Mar.
2007年
3月 Mar.
2008年
3月 2009
3月 2010
3月 2011
3月 Mar.
2012年
3月 2013
Jun.
2013年6月
年32013
月
Mar.
2003
Mar.
2004
Mar.
2005
Mar.
2006
Mar.
2009
Mar.
2010
Mar.
2011
Mar.2002
2002 Mar.
Mar.2012
2012
Mar.年
2004
Mar.年
2005
Mar.年
2006
Mar.2007
2007
Mar.2008
2008
Mar.年
2009
Mar.年
2010
Mar.年
2011
Mar.年
2003
Source: CBRE K..K.
Business Sentiment on Rent Levels in Tokyo (Now vs. 3 Months Later)
60
千代田区
Chiyoda
中央区
Chuo
港区
Minato
新宿区
Shinjuku
渋谷区
Shibuya
23
wards
23区
Rent Estimates (Rent Level at Survey Date = 100)
28th Survey (as of April 2013)
27th Survey (as of October 2012)
Next
Year
2
Years
5
Years
10
Years
Area
Next
Year
2
Years
5
Years
10
Years
40
Area
20
Marunouchi, Otemachi
area
100
102
105
105
Marunouchi, Otemachi
area
101
103
105
105
Shibuya, Shibuya
Station area
100
100
102
103
Shibuya, Shibuya
Station area
100
101
103
105
Nagoya, Nagoya
Station area
99
99
100
100
Nagoya, Nagoya
Station area
99
100
100
100
Osaka, along Midousuji
line
98
98
100
100
Osaka, along Midousuji
line
99
99
100
100
0
-20
-40
-60
Jul. 7月
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul.
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7月
Jul. 7Jul.
Jul.年Apr.
月
月
7月Jul.
4Apr.
1998年 1998
1997年 1997
2006年 2006
1999年 1999
1996年 1996
1993年 1993
2005年 2005
2008年 2008
2000年 2000
1995年 1995
2012年 2012
2007年 2007
2009年 2009
2004年 2004
2001年 2001
1994年 1994
2011年 2011
2003年 2003
2010年 2010
2002年 2002
2013 2013
2002
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute.
Source: Tokyo Building Owners and Managers Association
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
84
Office Building Inventory Overview (1): Three Major Cities
* New supply in the Tokyo Wards in 2013 will be around half of 2012 in volume.
Office Building Inventory in Three Major Cities
(10,000m2)
Office Building Inventory by Year Built (Tokyo Wards)
As of January 1, 2012
6,000
2,748
(buildings) (10,000m2)
Total floor area
床面積(万㎡)
2)
(10,000m
棟数(棟)of buildings
Number
5,000
As of January 1, 2012
3,000 350
2,500 300
250
2,000
4,000
5,448
200
1,500
3,000
150
2,000
1,000
845
1,000
100
1,371
500
349
517
0
Tokyo
Wards
東京区部
Osaka
大阪
0
Nagoya
名古屋
50
0
1959以前
Through
1959
As of January 1, 2012
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2012
2014
2012 2013
2014
201
(planned)
(planned)
（計画）
（計画）（計画）（計画）
2013
2009
2012
2014
2012 2013 2014
(planned)
(planned)
（計画）（計画）（計画）
2013
（計画）201
(planned)
As of January 1, 2012
350
250
1964
1979
Office Building Inventory by Year Built (Nagoya)
300
0
1974
(10,000m2)
300
1959以前
Through
1959
1969
(planned)
Office Building Inventory by Year Built (Osaka)
(10,000m2)
350
1964
0
1959以前
Through
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
* Tokyo Wards represents the Tokyo Central 5 Wards plus other wards (Bunkyo, Taito, Sumida, Koto, Shinagawa, Meguro, Ota and Toshima wards).
* The survey covers office buildings with 5,000 square meters or more of total floor area.
* The graph indicates office buildings built in each year and still existing on the survey date. The total floor area does not necessarily correspond with the total office space actually found at that time in that particular year.
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, The Annual Japanese Buildings Survey
*Comments by Tokyu
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
2012
2014
2012 2013 2014
2009 (planned)
(planned) 201
（計画）
（計画）
（計画）（計画）
2013
(planned)
REIM
85
Office Building Inventory Overview (2): Tokyo Wards
Office Building Inventory in Tokyo Wards (Statistics of Central Tokyo by Submarket)
* Approximately 30% of office building inventory was completed before
the present earthquake resistance standards were established.
Newly-Built and Demolished Office Buildings in Tokyo Wards (2009 – 2011)
* Tokyo has a considerable amount of new supply, but also has a fairly
large volume of demolished buildings.
As of January 1, 2012
Nishi-Shinjuku
3.45 million m2
Kanda
1.91 million m2
Shinjuku
0.44 million m2
Kojimachi – Bancho
1.46 million m2
Otemachi –
Marunouchi –
Yurakucho 5.78
million m2
As of January 1, 2012
Kanda
Nishi-Shinjuku
Nihonbashi – Yaesu
– Kyobashi
2.63 million m2
Shinjuku
Kojimachi – Bancho
Hatchobori –
Kayabacho – Shinkawa
Akasaka – Aoyama –
Roppongi
4.07 million m2
Akasaka – Aoyama –
Roppongi
Hatchobori –
Kayabacho –
Shinkawa 0.96
million m2
Shibuya
1.17 million m2
Shibuya
Shimbashi – Toranomon
3.20 million m2
Based on total
floor area
Shiba – Mita –
Hamamatsucho
2.27 million m2
Nihonbashi – Yaesu –
Kyobashi
Otemachi –
Marunouchi –
Yurakucho
Shimbashi – Toranomon
Shiba – Mita –
Hamamatsucho
40 years or older
30 – 40 years
20 – 30 years
Konan –
Shibaura –
Kaigan 3.60
million m2
10 – 20 years
Konan –
Shibaura –
Kaigan
10,000m2
Demolished (2009 – 2011)
Newly-built (2009 – 2011)
Less than 10 years
Age unknown
* The so-called new earthquake resistance standards were enforced as a result of revisions to the Building Standards Act in 1981.
* Tokyo Wards represents the Tokyo Central 5 Wards plus other wards (Bunkyo, Taito, Sumida, Koto, Shinagawa, Meguro, Ota and Toshima wards).
* The survey covers office buildings with 5,000m2 or more of total floor area.
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, The Annual Japanese Buildings Survey.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
Prepared on September 13, 2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
86
Retail Leasing Market Overview
* Consumer sentiment improved significantly due to change of regime.
Consumer Confidence Index
(Nationwide General Households / Seasonally Adjusted)
Economy Watchers Survey (Leading Indicator: Household Related)
65
50
Nationwide
全国
60
45
（注）
南関東 Minamikanto
(Note)
55
50
40
45
40
35
35
30
30
25
20
25
2000
年3 月 2001
年3 月 2002
年3 月 2003
年3 月 2004
年3 月 2005
年3 月 2006
年3 月 2007
年3 月 2008
年3 月 2009
年3 月 2010
年3 月 2011
年3 月 2012
年3 月 2013
年3Jul.
月
2013年7月
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
15
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Jul.
2000
年10月 2001
年10月 2002
年10月 2003
年10月 2004
年10月 2005
年10月 2006
年10月 2007
年10月 2008
年10月 2009
年10月 2010
年10月 2011
年10月 2012
年10月 2013年7月
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Jul.
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
Source: Cabinet Office “Economy Watchers Survey.”
(Note) Minamikanto represents Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama Prefectures.
Source: Cabinet Office “Consumer Confidence Survey.”
Department Store & Supermarket Sales (YoY Change) (Store Number-adjusted)
(%)
30.0
25.0
20.0
Department Stores
Department Stores
百貨店（東京）
(Tokyo)
百貨店（全国）
(Nationwide)
Department Stores
Supermarkets
百貨店（横浜）
(Yokohama)
スーパー（全国）
(Nationwide)
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Nov.
2003
2003.11
Nov.
2003
Nov.
2004
2004.11
Nov.
2004
Nov.
2005
2005.11
Nov.
2005
Nov.
2006
2006.11
Nov.
2006
Nov.
2007
2007.11
Nov.
2007
Nov.
2008
2008.11
Nov.
2008
Nov.
2009
2009.11
Nov.
2009
Source: Website of Japan Department Stores Association, Japan Chain Stores Association “Statistics on Sales of Chain Stores.”
Prepared on September 13, 2013
Nov.
2010
2010.11
Nov.
2010
Nov.
2011
2011.11
Nov.
2011
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Nov.
2012
2012.11
Nov.
2012
Jun.
2013
2013.6
Jun.
2013
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
87
Real Estate Trading Market Overview (1)
* Efforts of related parties to further improve transparency of Japanese real estate market are required.
Real Estate Cap Rate, Long-Term Interest, Yield Gap
Real Estate Transparency Index (CY2012)
Although Japan showed improvement in the two years since
the last survey, the transparency is still low compared to the
maturity level of its economy.
(Comments were prepared by Tokyu REIM based on the “Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2012” Report)
Changes in yield gap (1986 – 2010)
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on MU-CBex.
Ⓒ1998 Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp and CB Richard Ellis.
* The MUTB-CBRE real estate investment index was discontinued and eliminated with the publication in May 2011 of data for 2010.
Yield Gap
イールドギャップ
Transparency
Level
High
Transparency
Transparent
SemiTransparent
(Note 1)
(Note 1)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 2)
(Note 1)
4.0%
3.4%
0.6%
01
01
ct
.2
1
01
2
月
0
O
月
9
ct
.2
10
年
00
O
月
8
ct
.2
12
20
00
O
月
7
ct
.2
10
年
00
O
月
6
ct
.2
10
年
00
O
月
5
ct
.2
11
20
O
10
年
00
ct
.2
月
4
O
10
年
00
ct
.2
月
3
O
10
年
00
ct
.2
10
20
O
10
年
ct
.2
09
20
O
10
年
Prepared on September 13, 2013
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, “Japanese Real Estate Investor Survey.”
月
China Tier 1 Cities: Shanghai, Beijing, China Tier 2 Cities: Chongqing, Tianjin, China Tier 3 Cities: Wuxi, Zhengzhou.
India Tier 1 Cities: Delhi, Mumbai, India Tier 2 Cities: Kolkata, Hyderabad, India Tier 3 Cities: Ahmedabad, Kochi.
長期金利
* The graph was prepared based on the Japanese Real Estate Investor Survey,
as the above graph can no longer be updated.
10
年
(Note 1)
(Note 2)
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
月
Source: Prepared by Tokyu REIM based on Jones Lang LaSalle’s “Global Real Estate Transparency Index
2010” Report and “Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2012” Report.
（%）
10
年
The survey addressed the following five attributes of real estate transparency: 1) “Performance Measurement,” 2)
“Market Fundamentals,” 3) “Governance of Listed Vehicles,” 4) “Regulatory and Legal” and 5) “Transaction Process.”
イールドギャップ
Changes in Yield不動産キャップレート
Gap (2003 – 2013)
08
20
1.26
1.33
1.36
1.38
1.48
1.56
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.67
1.76
1.85
2.32
2.39
2.60
2.83
2.86
2.92
2.94
2.96
3.04
3.07
3.08
3.15
3.27
3.31
3.76
1996年-2010年のイールドギャップ平均
Yield gap average (1996 – 2010)
1986年-1995年のイールドギャップ平均
Yield gap average (1986 – 1995)
07
20
Low
United States
United Kingdom
Australia
Holland
New Zealand
Canada
France
Finland
Sw eden
Sw itzerland
Hong Kong
Singapore
Malaysia
Japan
Taiw an
China Tier 1 Cities
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Korea
China Tier 2 Cities
India Tier 1 Cities
India Tier 2 Cities
India Tier 3 Cities
Macau
China Tier 3 Cities
Vietnam
（%）
Long-Term
長期金利 Interest Rate
7.0
+2.4%
-2.4%
6.0
5.0
4.0%
4.0
2.9%
3.0
2.0
1.1%
1.0
0.0
-1.0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-2.0
-3.0
* At around the time of the bubble period,
the yield gap was negative.
-4.0
-5.0
06
20
6
3
1
9
4
2
8
13
4
20
18
16
25
26
33
45
48
57
39
42
54
41
49
55
44
65
76
CY 2012
Score
05
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
23
25
29
32
35
38
39
41
46
48
49
50
53
55
68
Country
Name
04
20
CY 2010
Rank
03
20
CY 2012
Rank
Real Estate Cap Rate
不動産キャップレート
(Single Fiscal （東京都区部の単年度インカム収益率）
Year Income Profit Ratio of Tokyo’s 23 Wards)
Yield gap average (2003 – 2013)
+2.7%
Yield Gap
イールドギャップ
Real Estate Cap Rate
不動産キャップレート
(Market cap rate of class A buildings in Marunouchi/Otemachi district)
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
Long-Term Interest Rate
長期金利
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
88
Real Estate Trading Market Overview (2):
Lending Attitude DI
* The lending attitude for the real estate sector bottomed out in March 2009 and began to relax.
Lending Attitude DI by Sector
<Long Term>
←
Lax
→
Tight
All Sectors
Lending Attitude DI by Size (Real Estate Sector)
Real Estate
Construction
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80
-80
-100
-100
1986
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1986
2013
<Short Term>
Total
1990
1995
Large
2000
Mid
2005
Small
2010
2013
<Short Term>
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
←
Lax
<Long Term>
100
→
Tight
-40
Turned positive
-40
2003.3
2004.3
2005.3
2006.3
2007.3
2008.3
2009.3
2010.3
2011.3
2012.3
2013.3
2013.6
2000.3
* Large
* REITs not covered in the survey.
Source : BOJ “Tankan.”
Prepared on September 13, 2013
2001.3
2002.3
2003.3
2004.3
2005.3
2006.3
2007.3
2008.3
2009.3
2010.3
2011.3
2012.3
2013.3
2013.6
・・・ Cap size over ¥1 billion
Mid
・・・ Cap size between ¥1 billion and ¥100 million
Small
・・・ Cap size between ¥100 million and ¥20 million
For data until 2003, size was based on the number of employees.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
89
REIT Market Overview (1):
Capital Market Trends Since 2007
2007/1/4 ＝ 100
150
140
TSE REIT Index
5/31/2007
TSE REIT Index hit a record high (3,047.85 points)
130
TOPIX
TSE Real Estate Index
Nikkei Stock Average
7/23/2007
Global downturn in stocks triggered by concerns
over the subprime issue surfacing in the U.S.
120
110
4/4/2013
BOJ decided to introduce
“Quantitative and Qualitative
Monetary Easing”
9/15/2008
Lehman Bros. filed for Chapter 11
100
10/5/2010
BOJ announced a comprehensive
monetary easing policy including
purchasing J-REITs
10/9/2008
First bankruptcy in J-REITs
Civil Rehabilitation Act applied to New City Residence
90
80
1/22/2009
The BOJ decided that
investment corporation
bonds, etc. of REITs are
eligible as collateral
70
9/5/2009
Set up of The Public Private Fund for
stabilizing the real
estate market
3/11/2011
Great East Japan
Earthquake
occurred
12/26/2012
Inauguration of the
second Abe cabinet
4/26/2012
Kenedix Residential
Investment Corporation
listed successfully
IPO for the first time in
four and half years
60
50
40
30
20
1/4/2007
2007/1/4
Prepared on September 13, 2013
1/4/2008
2008/1/4
1/4/2009
2009/1/4
1/4/2010
2010/1/4
1/4/2011
2011/1/4
1/4/2012
2012/1/4
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
1/4/
2013
2013/1/4
7/31/2013
90
REIT Market Overview (2):
TSE REIT Index Performance
* TSE REIT Index increased significantly since November 2011, but underperformed against TSE Real Estate Index.
TOPIX and TSE REIT Index Performance
TSE REIT Index Performance Relative to TOPIX
9/10/2003 (IPO of Tokyo REIT)＝100％
160
2800
TSE
東証REIT指数
REIT Index
TSE
REIT Index
東証REIT指数
TOPIX
TOPIX
150
2600
140
130
2400
120
110
2200
100
2000
90
80
1800
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
7/31/2004
1/31/2006
7/31/2005
1/31/2007
7/31/2006
1/31/2008
7/31/2007
1/31/2009
7/31/2008
1/31/2010
7/31/2009
1/31/2011
7/31/2010
1/31/2012
7/31/2011
1/31/2013
7/31/2012
7/31/2013
TSE REIT Index Performance Relative to TSE Real Estate Index
1600
9/10/2003 (IPO of Tokyo REIT)＝100％
120
東証REIT指数
TSE
REIT Index
TSE 東証不動産指数
Real Estate Index
110
1400
100
1200
90
80
1000
70
60
800
50
40
600
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
7/31/2004
1/31/2006
7/31/2005
Prepared on September 13, 2013
1/31/2007
7/31/2006
1/31/2008
7/31/2007
1/31/2009
7/31/2008
1/31/2010
7/31/2009
1/31/2011
7/31/2010
1/31/2012
7/31/2011
1/31/2013
7/31/2012
1/31/2004
1/31/2005
1/31/2006
1/31/2007
1/31/2008
1/31/2009
1/31/2010
1/31/2011
1/31/2012
1/31/2013
7/31/2004
7/31/2005
7/31/2006
7/31/2007
7/31/2008
7/31/2009
7/31/2010
7/31/2011
7/31/2012
7/31/2013
7/31/2013
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
91
REIT Market Overview (3):
Comparison with Other Countries
Major Interest Rates
Spread Over Risk Free Rate
(%)12.0
14.00
* Wider yield gap (spread) than the US and Australia.
12.00
10.00
Dividend Yield of REITs
(Note 1)
Coupon on 10 Year Bond
Dividend Yield of Indices (Note 2)
10-Year JGB Yield
10年国債利廻（日本）
(Japan)
As of 7/31/2013
* Yield of Australian LPT
becomes higher as it doesn’t
conduct depreciation
10-Year Treasury
10年国債利廻（米国）
Yield (US)
Long-Term
長期プライムレート
Prime Rate
Short-Term
短期プライムレート
Prime Rate
10.0
8.0
8.00
6.16%
243bps
6.0
6.00
3.53%
4.00
3.73%
96bps
2.58%
4.22%
194bps
4.26%
346bps
4.0
1.77%
2.05% 148bps
249bps
2.0
2.00
0.80%
0.00
0.0
米国
US
オーストラリア
Australia
1/8/1988
1988/1/8
日本
Japan
1/8/1991
1991/1/8
1/8/1994
1994/1/8
1/8/1997
1997/1/8
1/8/2000
2000/1/8
1/8/2003
2003/1/8
1/8/2006
2006/1/8
1/8/2009
2009/1/8
1/8/2012 7/31/2013
2012/1/8
2013/7/31
Japan / US Yield Gap vs. Exchange Rate
Japan / US
Yield Gap (%)
¥/$ Rate (¥)
(bps)
170
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
5.5
Japan/US Yield
Gap
Exchange Rate 日米為替レート
日米国債利廻差
日米金利差
10年国債とのスプレッド
米国
Spread
over USGB 10Y
160
10年国債とのスプレッド
over Australian GB 10Y
豪Spread
10年国債とのスプレッド
Spread
over JGB 10Y
日本
150
4.5
140
4.0
130
3.5
120
3.0
110
2.5
100
2.0
90
1.5
80
1.0
70
2003/9/30
9/30/2003
2004/9/30
9/30/2004
2005/9/30
9/30/2005
2006/9/30
9/30/2006
2007/9/30
9/30/2007
2008/9/30
9/30/2008
2009/9/30
9/30/2009
2010/9/30
9/30/2010
2011/9/30
9/30/2011
Source: Bloomberg and S&P.
(Note 1) Based on S&P’s REIT index by country/region; weighted average basis.
(Note 2) US based on S&P500, Australia based on ASX All Ordinaries, Japan based on TOPIX.
Prepared on September 13, 2013
2012/9/30
9/30/2012
2013/7/31
7/31/2013
5.0
1988/1/4
1/4/1988
0.5
1991/1/4
1/4/1991
1994/1/4
1/4/1994
1997/1/4
1/4/1997
2000/1/4
1/4/2000
2003/1/4
1/4/2003
2006/1/4
1/4/2006
2009/1/4
1/4/2009
2013/7/31
2012/1/4
1/4/2012 7/31/2012
* Japan / US Yield Gap = 10-Year US Treasury Yield – 10-Year JGB Yield
*Comments by Tokyu REIM
This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as an inducement or invitation to invest or trade in securities issued by TOKYU REIT.
92
Prepared on September 13, 2013
93