Comments
Description
Transcript
表 1 主要企業の資金調達
表1 主要企業の資金調達 (%) 年度 内部資金 株(増資) 他人資本 短期借入金 長期借入金 社債 借入債務他 1960-64 22.9 10.6 66.6 20.3 13.4 5.1 27.7 1965-69 30.6 3.3 66.1 15.7 15.1 4.3 31.0 1970-74 29.2 2.3 68.5 18.3 16.0 4.2 30.0 1975-79 38.8 6.8 54.4 14.4 8.2 9.0 22.8 1980-84 50.5 9.5 40.0 9.0 5.9 7.8 17.4 1985-89 45.9 16.0 38.0 5.3 1.2 17.7 13.9 1990-94 87.6 4.6 7.8 -2.8 7.7 11.2 -8.2 1995 84.0 1.2 14.8 -10.1 -3.4 3.6 24.7 (資料) 日本銀行『主要企業経営分析』(各年) (注)1995 年以後調査を中止。 1 表2 産業別企業数 農林水産業 鉱業 建設業 食料品製造業 飲料・飼料・ たばこ製造業 繊維工業 衣服・その他の繊維製品製造業 木材・木製品製造業( 家具を除く) 家具・装備品製造業 パルプ・紙・紙加工品製造業 出版・印刷・ 同関連産業 化学工業 石油製品・石炭製品製造業 プラスチック製品製造業 ゴム製品製造業 なめし革・同製品・毛皮製造業 窯業・土石製品製造業 鉄鋼業 非鉄金属製造業 金属製品製造業 一般機械器具製造業 電気機械器具製造業 輸送用機械器具製造業 精密機械器具製造業 その他の製造業 電気・ガス・熱供給・水道業 運輸・通信業 卸売業 小売業 飲食店 金融・保険業 不動産業 サービス業 Total 1995 1996 1997 1998 53 240 1,952 5,588 881 1,798 2,153 724 798 1,828 3,097 3,866 231 2,687 615 185 2,569 1,720 1,344 4,090 6,567 8,300 4,732 1,438 1,258 66 345 28,208 14,272 578 33 102 2,046 13 53 494 1,325 222 480 556 172 206 452 722 942 59 639 151 52 647 421 336 987 1,575 1,991 1,154 337 305 24 82 6,938 3,293 72 7 27 544 15 60 511 1,430 227 457 563 193 200 464 785 982 57 673 155 47 655 443 350 1,052 1,654 2,104 1,201 357 334 14 88 7,120 3,638 65 9 27 526 14 63 488 1,413 223 428 532 175 198 454 784 986 58 683 154 43 643 430 335 1,036 1,662 2,113 1,189 379 333 13 81 7,122 3,735 58 11 25 492 11 64 459 1,420 209 433 502 184 194 458 806 956 57 692 155 43 624 426 323 1,015 1,676 2,092 1,188 365 286 15 94 7,028 3,606 383 6 23 484 2 表3 基本統計量 Obs ln(real sales) ln(real investment) ln(real capital) ln(labor) ln(real wage) Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Sales-Share Liquidity Ratio Own Capital Ratio Debt Equity Ratio Return on Equity Debt-Asset Ratio 104,364 85,472 104,068 104,364 104,363 104,364 104,364 104,132 104,233 104,216 104,216 104,132 Mean 4.112 -0.094 2.229 5.166 1.487 0.028 0.003 1.895 0.261 5.843 0.039 0.777 3 Std. Dev 1.307 2.025 1.687 0.970 0.402 0.028 0.013 35.231 0.316 105.857 3.132 0.306 Min Max -4.469 -4.979 -4.979 3.912 -3.850 0.000 0.000 0.039 -13.368 -5,786.500 -368.500 0.013 12.006 8.983 9.598 11.254 6.418 0.667 0.721 9,743.000 1.526 22,943.000 301.000 14.395 表4 相関係数 ln(real sales) ln(real ln(real investment) capital) ln(labor) HerfindahlLiquidity ln(real wage) Hirschman Sales-Share Ratio Index Own Capital Debt Equity Return on Ratio Ratio Equity ln(real sales) 1.00 ln(real investment) 0.60 1.00 ln(real capital) 0.67 0.75 1.00 ln(labor) 0.79 0.64 0.70 1.00 ln(real wage) 0.33 0.18 0.20 0.07 1.00 HerfindahlHirschman Index 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.09 1.00 Sales-Share 0.32 0.26 0.29 0.34 0.11 0.31 1.00 Liquidity Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 Own Capital Ratio 0.06 0.26 0.18 0.13 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.01 1.00 Debt Equity Ratio 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.02 1.00 Return on Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.22 1.00 Debt-Asset Ratio -0.07 -0.15 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10 -0.05 -0.05 -0.02 -0.97 0.02 0.00 4 Debt-Asset Ratio 1.00 表5 生産関数 Panel 1 Dependent Variable : ln(real sales) ln(capital) ln(labor) Debt-Asset Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Squared Own Capital Ratio Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Sales-Share Liquidity Ratio Debt Equity Ratio constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.163 0.871 -0.732 -0.017 -0.837 0.320 6.857 0.000 0.000 0.021 98.630 303.160 -22.050 -9.330 -26.280 3.480 39.560 1.190 2.230 0.570 0.163 0.871 -0.733 -0.017 -0.837 0.315 6.846 0.000 0.000 -0.327 98.700 303.170 -22.070 -9.330 -26.300 3.440 39.520 1.190 2.230 -4.760 0.522 0.876 -12.979 -0.243 -12.760 -0.220 0.151 -0.044 -0.002 11.830 4.300 3.580 -1.710 -0.290 -2.110 -0.120 0.030 -0.810 -0.260 1.700 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 103,956 33 0.73 0.42 0.62 F(32, 103914) = 1889.41 103,956 33 0.73 0.42 0.62 103,956 33 0.29 0.68 0.27 chi2(1) = 159717622.71 12.79 Panel 2 Dependent Variable : ln(real sales) ln(capital) ln(labor) Debt-Asset Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Squared Own Capital Ratio Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Liquidity Ratio Debt Equity Ratio constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.167 0.897 -0.760 -0.016 -0.864 1.313 0.000 0.000 -0.103 100.520 318.160 -22.710 -9.070 -26.960 14.760 1.200 2.130 -2.820 0.167 0.897 -0.760 -0.016 -0.865 1.309 0.000 0.000 -0.421 100.580 318.150 -22.730 -9.080 -26.980 14.760 1.200 2.130 -6.210 0.522 0.875 -12.995 -0.240 -12.774 -0.187 -0.044 -0.002 11.847 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 103,956 33 0.73 0.47 0.62 F(32, 103915) = 1859.96 103,956 33 0.73 0.47 0.62 chi2(1) = 159498892.09 chi2( 8) = 8.44 5 103,956 33 0.29 0.68 0.26 4.400 3.660 -1.750 -0.300 -2.170 -0.140 -0.830 -0.270 1.740 Panel 3 Dependent Variable : ln(real sales) ln(capital) ln(labor) Debt-Asset Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Squared Own Capital Ratio Sales Share Liquidity Ratio Debt Equity Ratio constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.163 0.870 -0.735 -0.017 -0.839 7.022 0.000 0.000 0.035 98.740 303.510 -22.140 -9.340 -26.370 42.120 1.180 2.230 0.970 0.163 0.870 -0.735 -0.017 -0.840 7.010 0.000 0.000 -0.307 98.810 303.540 -22.150 -9.340 -26.390 42.080 1.180 2.230 -4.550 0.518 0.874 -13.246 -0.226 -12.982 -0.269 -0.045 -0.002 12.098 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 103,956 33 0.73 0.42 0.62 F(32, 103915) = 1921.39 103,956 33 0.73 0.42 0.62 chi2(1) = 167959221.74 chi2( 8) = 13.77 6 103,956 33 0.28 0.68 0.26 4.510 3.660 -1.850 -0.280 -2.300 -0.070 -0.830 -0.260 1.870 表6 雇用調整関数 Panel 1 Dependent Variable : ln(labor) ln(labor-1) ln(real sales) ln(real wage) Debt-Asset Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Squared Own Capital Ratio Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Sales-Share Liquidity Ratio Debt Equity Ratio constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.905 0.075 -0.112 0.201 0.004 0.261 -0.168 0.219 0.000 0.000 0.127 772.750 78.190 -56.690 20.510 8.230 27.810 -5.890 4.300 0.500 4.390 11.540 0.906 0.074 -0.112 0.203 0.004 0.263 -0.142 0.225 0.000 0.000 0.136 778.260 77.670 -56.680 20.740 8.160 28.040 -5.250 4.470 0.490 4.400 11.920 1.046 0.006 -0.056 0.323 -0.201 0.001 -0.135 0.659 -0.001 -0.001 -0.293 67.180 0.520 -1.780 1.050 -2.700 0.000 -1.440 2.540 -0.390 -1.660 -0.980 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 89,997 33 0.97 0.99 0.97 F(32, 89954) = 65.20 89,997 33 0.97 0.99 0.97 89,997 33 0.89 1.00 0.90 chi2(1) = 137568.87 chi2( 10) = 95.66 Panel 2 Dependent Variable : ln(labor) ln(labor-1) ln(real sales) ln(real wage) Debt-Asset Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Squared Own Capital Ratio Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Liquidity Ratio Debt Equity Ratio constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.905 0.075 -0.112 0.201 0.004 0.261 -0.133 0.000 0.000 0.122 776.810 79.150 -56.610 20.460 8.270 27.770 -4.860 0.500 4.380 11.160 0.906 0.075 -0.112 0.202 0.004 0.263 -0.110 0.000 0.000 0.133 781.130 78.720 -56.620 20.650 8.210 27.950 -4.260 0.490 4.390 11.650 1.047 0.002 -0.050 0.284 -0.199 -0.051 0.017 -0.001 -0.001 -0.251 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 89,997 33 0.97 0.99 0.97 F(32, 89955) = 65.63 89,997 33 0.97 0.99 0.97 chi2(1) = 140627.43 chi2( 9) = 73.31 7 89,997 33 0.89 1.00 0.90 60.470 0.180 -1.440 0.830 -2.400 -0.170 0.210 -0.330 -1.430 -0.760 Dependent Variable : ln(labor) ln(labor-1) ln(real sales) ln(real wage) Debt-Asset Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Squared Own Capital Ratio Sales Share Liquidity Ratio Debt Equity Ratio constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.905 0.075 -0.112 0.202 0.004 0.263 0.133 0.000 0.000 0.120 774.070 78.060 -56.620 20.620 8.280 27.930 2.730 0.510 4.400 10.950 0.906 0.074 -0.112 0.204 0.004 0.264 0.143 0.000 0.000 0.129 779.270 77.600 -56.680 20.790 8.200 28.090 2.980 0.500 4.400 11.390 1.047 0.005 -0.062 0.123 -0.202 -0.178 0.420 -0.001 -0.001 -0.082 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 89,997 33 0.97 0.99 0.97 F(32, 89955) = 89,997 33 0.97 0.99 0.97 64.11 chi2(1) = 137955.32 chi2( 9) = 16984.69 8 89,997 33 0.89 1.00 0.89 65.670 0.410 -1.930 0.440 -2.650 -0.740 2.060 -0.480 -1.660 -0.310 表7 投資関数 Panel 1 Dependent Variable : ln(real investment) ln(real investment-1) ln(real sales-1) ln(real capital-1) Capital Asset Ratio Liquidity Ratio Debt-Asset Ratio Sales-Share constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.004 0.017 0.004 2.596 0.000 -0.964 42.289 -0.346 0.840 2.070 0.630 62.630 -0.200 -39.520 78.780 -9.680 0.004 0.016 0.005 2.596 0.000 -0.966 42.080 -0.600 0.860 2.030 0.690 62.680 -0.210 -39.580 78.670 -6.660 0.355 0.414 -0.205 3.369 -0.319 -8.111 11.227 4.343 0.570 1.400 -0.220 3.300 -2.820 -3.820 1.380 1.420 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 70,402 33 0.14 0.25 0.15 F(32, 70362) = 155.42 70,402 33 0.14 0.25 0.15 70,402 33 0.01 0.70 0.01 chi2(1) = 300816.14 chi2( 7) = 29.02 Panel 2 Dependent Variable : ln(real investment) ln(real investment-1) ln(real sales-1) ln(real capital-1) Capital Asset Ratio Sales-Share constant Fixed Random Between Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient Estimated t-statistics Coefficient 0.005 0.020 2.597 -0.964 42.311 -0.348 1.150 3.050 62.690 -39.550 78.840 -9.820 0.005 0.019 2.598 -0.965 42.133 -0.608 1.190 3.050 62.730 -39.600 78.750 -6.190 0.455 0.450 3.182 -5.697 12.503 1.311 Diagnostic Test Number of Observation Number of Groups R-sq: within R-sq: between R-sq: overall F test that all u_i=0: Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects vs fixed effects Hausman specification test 70,430 33 0.14 0.25 0.15 F(32, 70392) = 156.06 70,430 33 0.14 0.25 0.15 chi2(1) = 313546.27 chi2( 5) = 22.31 9 70,430 33 0.03 0.61 0.05 1.590 1.380 2.940 -2.670 1.950 0.720 表8 企業活動基本調査と金融市場情報のマッチング構造 企業活動基本調査 26000 社 金融市場情報 3426 社 証券コード付 39 社 (新規参入?倒産?) 証券コード付 2846 社 金融市場情報 3426 社 証券コード無 580 社 非上場 21600 社 10