開発途上国向け太陽光発電技術の 導入・普及

(
)
26
(2014
2
)
(JICA)
PEAR
1
JR
14-020
2
0.
14
0-1.
PV
14
0-2.
PV
16
0-3.
19
I.
21
I-1.
21
I-2.
21
I-3.
22
II. JICA
(
)
25
II-1. JICA
25
II-2 JICA
26
II-3 JICA
27
II-4 JICA
29
III.
(
)
33
III-1. JICA
33
III-2. JICA
35
III-3.
39
III-4.
43
III-5.
50
III-6.
53
III-7.
57
IV.
(
)
IV-1.
(
IV-2. PV
58
)
58
/
/
61
IV-3. JICA
81
IV-4. JICA
81
IV-5.
IV-6. PV
(
SHS)
82
91
3
V.
97
V-1.
PV
97
V-2.
97
V-3.
99
V-4.
101
V-5. JICA
104
V-6.
105
V-7.
108
V-8.
109
VI.
111
VI-1.
111
VI-2. JICA
113
VI-3. JICA
123
121
A PV
127
A-1.
127
A-2.
PV
A-3.
(OR
129
)
131
A-4.
135
B 2000
PV
137
C
148
C-1.
148
C-2.
151
C-3.
152
D
155
E JICA
PV
E-1.
(21
)
164
E-2.
E-3.
164
214
(
)
220
4
F
259
F-1. NAMA (NATIONALLY APPROPRIATE MITIGATION ACTION)
259
F-2.
261
(CDM
F-3.
JCM/BOCM)
(FIT)
264
G PV
273
H.
275
5
1
PV
2
JICA
3
JICA
23
PV
25
27
4
29
5
30
6
(
)
7
31
(
8
)
31
32
9
IEA-PVPS
36
10
NEDO
37
11
PV
38
12
41
13
41
14
42
15
42
16
47
17
PV
47
18
PV
48
19
49
20
Thaajudeen
PV
50
21
59
22
60
23
62
24
SHS
68
25
26
76
2030
27
80
SHS
28
IDCOL
29
Grameen Shakti
(
30
SHS
32
SHS
PV
)
85
86
(50Wp
31
33
83
)
86
88
89
99
6
34
35
PV
(BaU
)
100
PV
36
101
KPLC
(PV/
)
109
37
110
38
128
39
132
40
133
41
SHS
135
42
152
43
GDP
153
44
45
156
M-KOPA Solar
2
SIM
159
46
160
48
222
49
223
50
PV
224
51
225
52
227
53
PV
233
54
233
55
234
56
236
57
PV
239
58
PV
240
59
PV
240
60
PV
240
61
PV
241
62
PV
242
63
PV
242
64
WCTC
PV
242
65
243
66
2
67
STELCO
68
Hiriya
244
Thaa Juddeen
PV
249
249
69
70
251
NAMA Registry
NAMA
(2013/9/1
)
260
7
71
CDM
CDM(pCDM=PoA)
261
72
CDM
CDM
262
73
CER
EUA
263
74
75
(2011/12
PV
76
77
(2012
MW
PV
PV
)
)
265
272
272
(1 MWp)
273
8
1
24
2
3
(
)
JICA
28
PV
34
4
PV
5
39
PV
43
6
44
7
PV
51
8
54
9
10
SHS
(50 Wp
Grameen Shakti
)
63
SHS
64
11
96
12
13
/
102
JICA/
PV
105
14
128
15
PV
135
16
2000
PV
17
2003
WB, IFC, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, ADB
PV
(1)
137
18
2003
WB, IFC, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, ADB
PV
(2)
138
19
WB
20
2000
21
2003
PV
(1)
141
22
2003
PV
(2)
142
23
2006
PV
PV
140
WB
PV
143
PV
Ashden Award
26
27
139
GEF
24
25
136
144
PV
145
(
)
Lighting Global
(2014
28
PV
29
1
149
)
159
224
235
30
PV
31
FIT
32
FIT
33
FIT
238
265
/
/
267
269
9
34
FIT
271
10
PV
AC, DC
ACE
Actions for Cool Earth.
ACP
Africa, Caribbean, and Pacific
ADB, AfDB
Asian Development Bank
Ah
Ampere-Hour
BCS
Battery Charging Station
BOP
Base of the Pyramid
2013
African Development Bank
MOP TOP
CAPELCO
Capiz Electric Cooperative, Inc.
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
CER
Certified Emission Reduction CDM
CERT
Committee on Energy Research and Technology IEA
CFL
Compact Fluorescent Lamp
CGAP
Consultative Group to Assist the Poor
DIY
Do-It-Yourself
DSM
Demand-Side Management
ESCO
Energy Service Company
EU
European Union
FIT
Feed-In Tariff
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GEF
Global Environmental Facility
GHG
Greenhouse Gas
GIZ
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
EU ETS
EUA
.
Grid
GS
Grameen Shakti
Grameen Bank
Grameen
Shakti
11
HHs
Households
ICS
Improved Cookstove
IDCOL
Infrastructure Development Company Limited
SHS
IEA
International Energy Agency
IEA-PVPS
IEA
REWP
Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme 13
6
IFC
International Finance Corporation
IRR, NPV
Internal Rate of Return
IPP
Independent Power Producer
JCM/BOCM
Joint Crediting Mechanism or Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism
Net Present Value
(Japan Bank for International Cooperation)
JBIC
(Japan External Trade Organization)
JETRO
(Japan International Cooperation Agency)
JICA
KfW
Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
KIOSK
KIOSK
LDC
Least Developed Country
LED
Light Emitting Diode
LPG
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
MEE
Ministry of Environment and Energy
MFI
Micro-Finance Initiative
Safaricom
M-KOPA
SIM
M-PESA
(Alternative
MoWE, AEO
Energy Office)
BoWME
(Bureau)
AEO
MRV
Measurement Reporting Verification NAMA
NAMA
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
CDM
MRV
BUR
(COP)
ICA (International Consultation
and Analysis)
12
(New Energy and Industrial
NEDO
Technology Development Organization)
(Nippon Export and Investment Insurance)
NEXI
NGO
Non Governmental Organizations
NZAID
New Zealand’s Agency for International Development
OBA
Output-based Aid
ODA
Official Development Assistance
O&M
Operation & Maintenance
PCS
Power Conditioning System
PDCA
Plan-Do-Check-Act
PoA
Programme of Activities CDM
SHS
PoA
PO
Partner Organizations IDCOL
SHS
PPP
Purchasing Power Parity
PPUC
Palau Public Utilities Corporation
PV
Photovoltaic
REIPPP
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement
REWP
Working Party on Renewable Energy IEA
Public-Private Partnership
(Renewable Portfolio Standard)
RPS
SHS
Solar Home System
STELCO
State Electric Company Ltd.
Tk
Taka
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
UNIDO
United Nations Industrial Development Organization
WB
World Bank
WT
Wind Turbine
Wp
Wp
1
1.3
(STC)
: 1,000 W/m2
: 25
(AM): 1.5
1.5
1.5
48
o
13
0-1.
PV
PV
PV
/
JICA
2008
30
8
PV
21
PV
17
JICA
PV
JICA
PV
PV
PV
14
PV
JICA
JICA
(FIT)
PV
PV
PV
PV
PV
JICA
PV
PV
PV
•
•
PV
•
PV
•
15
0-2.
PV
JICA
(PV)
PV
.1 JICA
1980
PV
0-1
PV
1980
1990
(SHS)
1990
PV
1990
PV
PV
SHS
50Wp
(BCS)
10%
260
SHS
10
JICA
PV
JICA
1980
10
PV
PV
JICA
PV
1
USAID
PV
PV
16
PV
SHS
SHS
SHS
JICA
SHS
BCS
BCS
SHS
BCS
UNIDO
PV
2000
PV
1–2
PV
JICA
O&M
PV
JICA
2005
SHS
JICA
10Wp
17
JICA
1980
PV
30
PV
PV
•
PV
• SHS
BCS
SHS
SHS
O&M
•
PV
/
PV
•
–
•
–
•
–
SHS
•
–
•
18
0-3.
PV
/
ESCO
IPP
PV
Wp SHS
kWp
PV
Wp
100 kWp
Wp
MWp
MWp
10
20
4 MWp
/
PV
SHS
SHS
BOP
KIOSK
BCS
BOP
JICA
BOP
JICA
PV
19
kWh
40
PV
kWh
PV
100 kW
PV
/
IPP
/
PV
FIT
JICA
PV
100%
JICA
PV
JICA
20
I-1.
1980
JICA
(PV)
•
•
2
•
JICA
•
!
JICA
!
JICA
2
I-2.
2
JICA
21
I-3.
V
VI
PV
2
I-3-1
•
PV
•
JICA
PV
PV
PV
PV
•
3
•
kWh
•
•
/
•
•
3
22
(Wp)
•
•
PV
PV
•
.4
(%)
Electrification Rate (2011) CO
2
•
100
CO2
i
1–4
•
90
•
80
Wp
70
60
•
2–5 Wp
•
SHS
10Wp
20–120
Wp
PV
2–4 kWp
kWp
•
50
kWp
•
40
MWp
•
30
Off-Grid System
20
On-Grid System
Pico-Solar
0
1 Wp
1
Community-based
PV System
SHS
Solar
Lantern
10
10
10Wp
100
100Wp
1 kWp
1,000
1
4
Mini-Grid
10 kWp
10,000
100 kWp
100,000
Mega-Solar
1 MWp
1,000,000
10 MWp 100,000,000
100 MWp
10,000,000
PV
SHS
23
.5
1
/
PV
PV
PV
A
5
JICA
24
II-1. JICA
JICA
1980
PV
2005
2008
30
JICA
95.6'kW
16.2'kW
Village'(central)
9'kW
Ice'making
Village'(central)
181'sets
Ligh@ng
Clinic'Refrigerator
Water'supply
Water'supply
150'kW
Telecom
Water'supply
Telecom
Telecom
65'kW
Grant Aid
Soft Loan
Micro*grid*
(1MW)**
Water'supply
Telecom
60'kW
So)*loan
Water'supply,'ligh@ng
F/S*for*Mega*solar**
(20MW)
Maternity'hospital'ligh@ng
Water'supply
Water'supply
Telecom
Water'supply
Water'supply
Environment'
Program'Grant'Aid'
(30'countries)
Water'supply Pump'40'sets
Water'supply
148'kW
Emergency'call
SHS 692'kW
Police'telephone
Flood'alarm
'Mega'Solar,'Micro'grid
Telecommunica@on
Community
1985
120'kW
SHS'etc.
2000
2005
1.9'kW
Capacity''
Master'plan Development
Master'plan
7'kW
Master'plan
Survey
Master'plan
SHS 3.5'kW
SHS 10'kW
Master'plan
SHS,'BCS
Master'
''plan
Survey
SHS 2.4'kW
Training
SHS 10'kW
Survey,'Planning,'
Training,'Educa@on
SHS,'Master'plan 15'kW
2
JICA
PV
Capacity'Development
Master'plan
SHS 15'kW
Clinic'Refrigerator
Capacity'Development
Capacity'Development
Master'plan
27.6'kW
Hybrid 10'kW
Weather'
Observa@on
Rural'Electrifica@on'
Capacity'
Development
Capacity'Development
Community 20'kW
Development Study
Technical cooperation
2010
Basic'Survey
Master'plan
Water'supply
Ice'making
Telephone
1995
Hybrid
Village,'Community'
Electrifica@on
'Ligh@ng','SHS'
'BaVery'Charge
Water'Pumping,'
Purifica@on
1990
Preparatory*
Survey
SHS,'Water'Pumping,'
MiniZgrid
Planning
Capacity'
Development'
Educa@on
ii
25
II-2 JICA
JICA
PV
PV
1980
1979
NEDO
2
1980
1986
1988
1980
B
PV
JICA
1990
SHS
JICA
6
. 2000
SHS
JICA
PV
SHS
BCS
JICA
IDCOL
JICA
PV
100%
6
PV
JICA
PV
B
PV
1990
2000
26
JICA
2008
30
JICA
2005
II-3 JICA
iii
II-3-1
1980
1990
1
SHS
BCS
個別プロ
維持管理
体制の
マスター
プラン
実施･普及の
ための能力
[ownership,
[全国展開
[ボトルネッ
開発
ジェクト
持続可能性]
策定
への計画]
開発
クの解消]
組織構築
制度開発
資金フロー
技術移転
…
1980年代
1990年代
3
1980
2000年代
JICA
1990
27
PV
BOP
A C
II-3-2
7
2008
42
20
2014
30
2
PV
2
7
(
)
JICA
JICA
28
PV
III
II-4 JICA
iv
III-4-1
JICA
開発調査
技術協力プロジェクト
実施
計画
維持管理
普及
4
BOP
•
–
–
–
FIT
–
FS
/
•
–
–
/
,
,
29
–
–
/
•
–
–
(Training for Trainers)
–
PV
•
•
BOP
•
/
パイロットプロジェクト維持管理体制の開発例
パイロットプロジェクト普及制度の検討例
村落社会経済調査： 電化ニーズ・対象村落選定手法の検討
村落金融制度・組織の調査
対象村落の選定： 村落組織形成支援
普及のメカニズムと必要な能力開発
技術的調査・検討，機器調達・据付・引渡
関係制度・組織の整備．人材・関係組織の能力開発・強化
村落組織と地方自治体等に対する技術移転
維持管理・モニタリング
維持管理体制へのフィードバック
実施組織・受益者等に対するモニタリングと支援
普及制度へのフィードバック
5
JICA
SHS
2013
PV
30
6
)v
(
PV
7
(
)vi
31
1
JICA
PV
/
PV
/
JICA
PV
図7
と
Community Agent Manual
Community Solar Manual
vii
8
トレーニングキットも効果的であった。これは基本的に次のものからなっている。
PV
木製ボード
PV
小型
パネル
コントローラー、インバーター、ランプ
小型バッテリー
キットは
機器間のつながり習得や配線実習を行うために使われた。一度、キットに
より実習を経験すると受講者は
システムに自信を持つようになり、設置実習を行いやす
32
くなった。
研修教材における唯一の問題は、これらを準備するのにコストがかかる点である。特
2
JICA
PV
III-1. JICA
2008
1
2008
JICA
2009
(1)
(2)
(3)
PV
III-1-1
JICA
PV
PV
PV
JICA
PV
21
33
PV
PV
(1)
PV
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
3
JICA
PV
No
(kWp)
1
443.52
2
225
3
300
4
250
EU,
120
5
40
6
208.98
7
680
20
100
(STELCO)
Thaajuddeen
Hiriya
8
Velaanaage
Giyaasudheen
Kalaafaanu
45
130
100
40
UNDP,
80
85
40
35
65
34
3
JICA
PV
No
(kWp)
9
480
178
10
178
11
480
12
300
13
236
14
777
15
400
16
830
17
315
20
18
EU,
160
130
19
70
I
20
21
280
289
III-2. JICA
III-2-1
PV
IEA
PV
IEA
IEA
Systems Programme, PVPS)
(IEA Photovoltaic Power
1995
PV
IEA-PVPS
PV
PV
35
IEA-PVPS
PV
PV
GEF (Global Environment Facility)
GEF-5 (2010–2014)
6
(a)
,
,
.
(b)
.
(c)
.
(d)
,
(e)
,
,
.
,
,
.
(f)
.
GEF
GIZ
PV
(IEA), PVPS
MO62:IEAPVPSTask
CDRW1:JPEA
2
(CERT)
“
•
•
•
•
(REWP)
(PVPS)
”
IEA
Task21 PV
Task22 PV
Task213
Task23
Task211
PV
Task25
PV
Task26
Task27
Task210
PV
Task28
Task29
Task212
Task214
1993
1999
9
26
viii
IEA-PVPS
NEDO
PV
2005
17
36
NEDO
PV
10
3
PV
ix
NEDO
III-2-3
PV
PV
PV
37
MO62:JICA
PV
MO59:JICAlectureOr
Mo58:JICAlecture6
MO59:JICAlecture1a
SHS
11
x
PV
JICA
PV
PV
UNEP
38
4
GEF,
IFC
UNEP
PV
CEPALCO
UNEP
950 kWp
515 kWp
1994
2011
(CEPALCO)
PV
.xi
PV
UNEP
.xii
2
PV
PV
UNEP
Praslin
2.2 kWp
FIT
.xiii
PV
UNDP,
NZAID,
Tokelau Renewable
Energy Project
930 kWp
2012
4
.xiv,xv
EU
Support to the Energy
Sector in Five ACP
Pacific Islands
(REP-5)
PV
100 kWp
150 kWp,
55 kWp
2008
.xvi,xvii
(150kWp)
(55kWp)
2008
.
xviii
III-3.
JICA
III-1
JICA
III-3-1
JICA
39
III-3-2
1
PV
1
•
PV
•
•
FIT
PV
•
•
•
•
40
•
12
III-3-3
"
PV
PV
PV
•
•
•
•
•
•
• FIT
•
•
13
"
41
•
•
•
•
•
•
• PV
• PCS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
14
"
PV
PV
PV
PV
PV
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
15
"
42
III-4-1
E
III-4.
PV
5
PV
JICA
III-4-1
PV
E
III-3
:
PV
•
•
CO2
•
JICA
43
6
FIT
PV
PCS
PV
III-4-2
III-4-1
PV
III-4-1
E
15
44
III-4-3
PV
JICA
PV
PV
JICA
2007
FIT
3
III-4-3-1
2013
10
22–27
JICA
PV
FIT
Salkhit Wind Farm
100%
2001
2005
2020
20–25%
2007
FIT
45
1.5 MWp
JICA
PV
443.52 kWp
FIT
FIT
PV
10 MWp
PV
FIT
5
1
Salkhit Wind Farm 50MWp
FIT
3
FIT
4MNT/kWh
2013
8
98MNT/kWh
PV
2012
9
JICA
PV
PV
JICA
24
PV
10
10
PV
11,000
ODA
JICA
PR
46
16
17
PV
III-4-3-2
2013
11
10–15
JICA
PV
PV
4
2009
2020
20%
30%
PPUC
PV
PPUC
2012
12
47
PV
CO2
PPUC
PPUC
PPUC
PPUC
2012
12
2013
11
2011
3
EU
PV
JICA
PV
EU
PPUC
10
JICA
PPUC
PV
WCTC
2011
11
PV
US$0.42/kWh
1.8
US$0.75/kWh
JICA
JICA
PPUC
PPUC
JICA
JICA
18
PV
48
19
III-4-3-3
2013
11
24
29
11
JICA
3
STELCO
2010
PV
10
Thaajuddeen
Hiriya
2020
2013
11
Ministry of Environment and Energy, MEE
FIT
1
(World Bank
1
WB)
PV
1
3
2
2014
10
5
3
2
5
12
PV
3
740 kWp
2013
JICA
49
PV
JICA
STELCO
16
PV
STELCO
30
JICA
20
Thaajudeen
PV
III-5.
III-5-1
PV
ODA
/
50
ODA
7
PV
(NEXI)
JCM
JCM
.xix
/
CIS
PV
.xx
(Photon Energy Systems
PCS
Ltd.)
.xxi
21 MWp
MWp
20
PV
Ostar Kamak
PCS
PV
2013
PCS
5
.xxii
84 MWp
5
.xxiii
300 MWp
.xxiv
29,000
.xxv
PV
6
MWp
6 MWp
.xxvi
30.9
Newcom LLC
.xxvii
Scatec Solar
2
115 MWp
20
Eskom
PV
2014
.xxviii
(Global
Sustainable Electricity Partnership)
51
Dhiffushi
40 kWp
PV
2012
.xxix
III-5-2
(a)
JETRO
xxx
NEDO
(b)
2010
5
1
10
National Action Plan on Climate
Change
xxxi
12
2,100
kWp
xxxii
5
2015
2012
10%
25
2021
Renewable and
Alternative Energy Development Plan AEDP2012-2021
xxxiii
(c)
FIT
REIPPP
RPS
Renewable Energy
Independent Power Producer Procurement
.xxxiv FIT
E
(d)
52
PV
PV
PV
(e)
JETRO
III-6.
21
JICA
53
8
No.
FIT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
54
III-6-1
FIT
8
1
FIT
FIT
PV
III-6-2
PV
PV
kWp
8 MWp
1 MWp
500 kWp
PV
PV
55
PV
PV
PV
III-6-3
8
21
17
JICA
PV
PV
JICA
PV
PV
56
24
III-7.
PV
PV
•
•
•
•
PV
PV
PV
JICA
PV
57
PV
PV
C
IV-1.
(
)
PV
JICA
PV
8
JICA
PV
8
PV
58
(Source: Photovoltaics for Community Service Facilities, Africa Renewable Energy Access Program)
Figure 1.3-14: Sample flow chart to select technology options
xxxv
21
for off-grid rural electrification
(6)
Recent development of grid-connected PV system
1) Mega solar
PV solar system has no clear definition but generally refers to a PV system
Currently, a mega
whose output is 1 MW (= 1,000kW) or over. Compared with the small-scale distributed PV
system mentioned so far, the mega solar system is considered as a “Power Station.”
PV Europe
rapidly promotes the construction of mega solar systems rated at several to tens of megawatts,
particularly in Germany and Spain. They are also introduced in the US and Asia. The mega
PV
solar systems are expected
to spread all over the world due to falling price of PV system and
increasing oil price on the other hand.
SHS
The PV array of a9 mega solar system is mounted on the ground
and the massive space is
SHS
necessary to the arrangement. Therefore, it is often installed on a premise of factories in
Japan.
9
SHS
PV
O&M
The larger the PV system output, the greater the effect of fluctuating solar radiation. It may
increase the difficulty of problems including fluctuations in the voltage and frequency of59the
grid and increasing harmonics into connected power systems. Before connecting the mega
solar system to the grid, it is important to investigate the connection point and protection
scheme in consideration of the impact on the grid and have talks with the grid operator.
systems—but it is clear that growth remains a challenge in the subsector. Enterprises such as
Husk Power Systems and DESI Power, both biomass mini-utilities in India, are already operating
several systems that are profitable on an individual plant basis. To address high corporate overhead,
which brings down overall profitability and makes management of the business complex, they are
exploring replication using ideas such as microfranchising. But these models are yet to be refined
to a point where they become easily replicable and scalable. In addition, financing is a constraint—
most mini-utilities are not yet straightforward deals for commercial investors or lenders. But this
subsector holds real potential and merits greater attention on the part of operating companies,
policymakers, and investors.
SIM
“Mini-grids offer an important jump from basic household devices
M-KOPA
because they offer electrification and can support productive activities.”
D
Levelized cost of electricity, US cents/kWh
1/EQUV
(WGNEQUV
+PXGUVOGPVEQUV
Capacity FactorsXCT[
EQPUKFGTCDN[COQPI
NQECVKQPUCPFJCXG
UKIPKƂECPVKORCEVQP
43
33
RNCPVGEQPQOKEU
GURGEKCNN[HQTUQNCT28
or Micro-hydro
1
BiomassRQYGTEQUVKU
26
33
1
HWGNGFYKVJNQECN
HGGFUVQEMWUWCNN[CV
19
17
32
25
CEJGCRGTRTKEG
EQORCTGFVQOCTMGV
8
19
3
8
6
Solar PV
Mini-wind
2
Biomass
ICUKƂGT
Micro-hydro
&KGUGN
IGPGTCVQT
4,800
3,300
3,800
3,000
850
7UGHWNNKHG
;GCTU
20
20
20
25
%CRCEKV[HCEVQT
20
80
20
80
n.a.
n.a.
32
VQP
n.a.
0.98
+
(WGNEQUVU
M9
&KHƂEWNVaccess to
credit ECPKPETGCUG
VJGQXGTCNNEQUV
RCTVKEWNCTN[HQTECRKVCN
KPVGPUKXGQPGUNKMG
Solar PV, Mini-wind,
or Micro-hydro
/CKP#UUWORVKQPU
%CRGZ
M9
OCKPN[FTKXGPD[HWGN
EQUVUOCNNRNCPVUCTG
9#%%CV
RTGOKWORTKEGQXGT
VJGTGUKFGPVKCN28RTKEGU
KP'WTQRG
*GCVEQPVGPVCV/9JVQP
YQQFCHVGTHGNNKPICV
OQKUVWTG
FIGURE 3.13: Electricity generation costs by mini-grid technology
Source: ESMAP–World Bank, McKinsey analysis.
Note: kW = kilowatt; kWh = kilowatt hour; MWh = megawatt hour; O&M = operations and maintenance; PV = photovoltaic;
WACC = weighted average cost of capital.
n.a. = not applicable.
xxxvi
22
A
60
IV-2. PV
/
/
IV-2-1
PV
I
1
JICA
•
and/or
•
PV
Wp, 10 Wp, 20–150 Wp,
W p,
kWp,
10 kWp,
100 kWp
•
•
•
•
/
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
PV
IV-2-2
PV
(1) SHS (2)
(3) BCS
(4)
/
(1), (2)
(3), (4)
61
(2)
JICA
D
INTEGRATION
45"/%"-0/&
SYSTEMS
7*--"(&4$"-&
.*/*(3*%
.*/*(3*%4
$061-&%8*5)."*/
(3*%0305)&3
.*/*(3*%4
OFF-GRID
RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
PRODUCTIVE
USES
BASIC NEEDS
&-&$53*$*5:'03
-*()5*/()&"-5)
&%6$"5*0/
$0..6/*$"5*0/
$0..6/*5:4&37*$&4
"/%-08-0"%
130%6$5*7&64&4
,8)1&3$"1*5"1&3
YEAR)
*
MODERN
SOCIETY NEEDS
&-&$53*$*5:'03
"(3*$6-563&8"5&3
16.1*/($0..&3$*"-
"$5*7*5*&44&8*/(
$055"(&*/%6453:
(3"*/(3*/%*/(&5$
&-&$53*$*5:'03.0%&3/
%0.&45*$"11-*"/$&4
'03)&"5*/("/%
$00-*/(&5$"306/%
,8)1&3$"1*5"1&3
YEAR)
In some instances mini-grids in villages have been known to operate in areas already connected to the national grid but receiving unreliable
or intermittent supply.
xxxvii
23
IV-2-2-1
50 Wp
(SHS)
PV
CFL
1990
260
LED
JICA
IV-5-1
62
10
10
SHS
.11
PV
SHS
20–150 Wp
9
50 Wp
SHS
(US$)
PV
(50 Wp
GNI (US$)
)xxxviii
/
650
160
4.1
750
100
7.5
550
350
1.6
1,000
530
1.9
> 800
296
> 2.7
650
340
1.9
850
270
3.1
500–700
260
2.8
1,200
320
3.8
800
387
2.1
10
1/4
SHS
10
2000
(
2002
) 2011
10
2006
Renewable Energy and Rural Electricity Access Project (REAP)
WB/IDA
GEF
50
/
(http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/04/08/portable-solar-power-for-nomadic-herders)
10
SHS
11,000
ODA
100–200 Wp
PV
11
Grameen Shakti
1
SHS
130
SHS
SHS
20 Wp
SHS
63
SHS
SHS
CFL
CFL
LED
LED
1/2
50 Wp
20 Wp
20 Wp
SHS
Grameen Shakti
SHS
10
SHS
12
System
Capacity (Wp )
Loads can be used
Equipments supplied by GS
Package
Price (BDT)
20
3 x 3W LED light
A 20Wp panel, 3 x 3W LED light, a 20/23 AH
battery, a charge controller, a frame and cables
12,000
30
2 x 3W LED light and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
A 30Wp panel, 2 x 3W LED light, a 30AH battery,
a charge controller, a frame and cables
15,500
40/42
3 x 3W LED light and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
A 40/42 W p panel, 3 x 3W LED light, a 40/45AH
battery, a charge controller, a frame and cables
22,000
50
4 x 3W LED light and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
A 50Wp panel, 4 x 3W LED light, a 55/60AH
battery, a charge controller, a frame and cables
27,100
60
5 x 3W LED light and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
A 60Wp panel, 5 x 3W LED light, a 60AH battery,
a charge controller, a frame and cables
30,600
A 75Wp panel, 6 x 3W LED light, a 80AH battery,
a charge controller, a frame and cables
34,100
A 80Wp panel, 7 x 3W LED light, a 80AH battery,
a charge controller, a frame and cables
36,600
A 100W p panel, 9 x 3W LED light, a 100AH
battery, a charge controller, a frame and cables
41,600
A 130/135 W p panel, 7 x 3W LED light, a 130AH
battery, a charge controller, a frame and cables
46,100
75
80
100
130/135
1 BDT
12
Grameen Shakti
6 x 3W LED light,
a 12W fan and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
7 x 3W LED light,
a 12W fan and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
9 x 3W LED light,
a 12W fan and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
7 x 3W LED light,
2 x 12W fans and
a 15” LCD/LED TV
= 1.3
30–150 Ah
5
3
64
/
SHS
SHS
13
SHS
TV
/
SHS
PV
SHS
JICA
SHS
JICA
/
SHS
9, 10
•
•
13
65
SHS
.14
3
(a)
SHS
(b)
SHS
(c)
SHS
SHS
(c)
SHS
(a)+(b)
SHS
IDCOL
/
(c)
:
SHS
BCS
BOP
14
Grameen
Grameen
SHS
5
3
SHS
66
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
•
SHS
•
•
SHS
10–20
10
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
67
SHS Flow
Financing Flow
Report
Central Gov’t
Ministry (of Energy)
Overall Policy
Entrust Financial
Service
?
=
SHS Program
Supervising
Organization
Loan & Grant
Governmental
Financial Institution
Database
Donors
Management
Level
Database
Qualification,
Instruction,
Tech Standards,
Check
Loan &
Grant
?
=
SHS
SHS Providers
Providers
Micro
Micro Finance
Finance
Institutions
Institutions
Database
Database
SHS Sales,
Installation,
Maintenance,
Aftercare
Service
Providers to
Users
Loan &
Grant
Users
Users
Users
(Households,
(Households,
Small
shops,
etc.)
(Households,Small
Smallshops,
shops,etc.)
etc.)
24
SHS
68
SHS
JICA
SHS
SHS
.15
SHS
1
16
/
SHS
SHS
SHS
30
1
/
JICA
15
IFC
SHS
(IFC, “Selling Solar—Lessons from more than a decade
of IFC’s Experience”, 2007)
Sunlabob
self-managed rental fund
16
2
SHS
69
PDCA
MRV
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
70
SHS
Grameen Shakti
2
.
17
SHS
18
SHS
SHS
25
17
http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=54&Itemid=78.
Web
18
KSEC (Kiribati Solar Energy Company)
1984
USAID
1989
ESCO
JICA
(IRENA “Kiribati Renewables Readiness Assessment 2012”
JR 94-086/088
6
)
1990
JICA
71
SHS
TV
120 Wp
SHS
SHS
19
5
PDCA
SHS
IDCOL
SHS
19
SHS
JICA
10Wp
SHS
5
72
SHS
JICA
20
NGO
IDCOL
or
Do-It-Yourself
SHS
SHS
Do-It-Yourself
SHS
SHS
SHS
20
SHS
1999–2002
7
SHS
SHS
http://www2.jica.go.jp/ja/evaluation/pdf/2001_1365007C0_3_s.pdf
73
TV
SHS
SHS
GIZ
SHS
SHS
IV-5. (p.82)
SHS
1/4
10
100%
.21
SHS
SHS
SHS
PV
22
21
22
10
1
SHS
IFC
SHS
from more than a decade of IFC’s experience”, 2007)
(IFC, “Selling Solar—Lessons
Lighting Africa
74
V-2-2-2
SHS
pre-electrification
SHS
SHS
SHS
IT
JICA
D
IV-2-2-3
(BCS)
SHS
KIOSK
SHS
PV
:
PV
BCS
BCS
SHS
JICA
75
1. CPM from Base Transceiver Station (BTS) infrastructure
2. CPM from retail distribution network
(i) Outsource power solution to ESCo which sells community
energy services or
(ii) Sell power from over-capacity of BTS
power equipment
Leveraging extensive rural sales dealer/ retail network for
distribution or sale of charging/ lighting devices through
commercial partnerships
Energy Hub
3. CPM from payment technology
Opportunity for micro e-payments: High volumes
of small payments for off-grid domestic & small
business energy
Mini Grid
xxxix
25
PV
100Wp–
kWp
/
BCS
/
BCS
PV
BCS
JICA
xl
76
/
BCS
BCS
PV
BCS
UNIDO
KIOSK
23
BCS
10W
23
UNIDO
UNIDO
2
KIOSK
PV
JICA
Energy Kiosks/Community Power Centers”, 2012)
O&M
(JICA, “Survey to Establish the Status of UNIDO
77
SHS
BCS
BCS
PV
PV
BCS
PV
/
PV
IV-2-2-4
/
MW
kW
PV
PV
PV
SHS
PV
30%
PV
STELCO
78
PV
/
KPLC
15
kW
6
PV
36
/
/
79
PV
PV
PV
MW
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
Stand-alone
Mini-grids
0%
0%
Africa
26
IRENA
On-grid
Developing Asia
Latin America
xli
2030
IOREC 2012
/
80
PV
IDCOL
JICA
10 MW
1 MWp
PV
1.3 MWp
2.3 MWp
PV
PV
IV-3. JICA
JICA
SHS
BCS
JICA
/PV
IDCOL
SHS
xlii
JICA
BOP
SHS
IV-4. JICA
JICA
81
JICA
SHS
IFC
Lighting
Africa/Asia/Global
UNIDO
/
24
PV
KIOSK xliii
10–30 kW
LED
BCS
UNIDO
12–18
UNIDO
2012
JICA
IV-5.
xliv
O&M
(
IV-5-1
SHS)
SHS
IV-5-1-1
260
1
2015
SHS
2,000
400
SHS
Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL)
WB, GEF, KfW, ADB, IDB, JICA
SHS
24
82
SHS
Partner Organizations (POs)
PO
NGOs
NGO
IDCOL
Grameen Shakti
Grameen Shakti
IDCOL
Bangladesh Government
Members
Report
Technical
Committee
(& others)
Overall Policy,
Entrust financial
service
Donors
Loan & Grant
Repayment
Regular Report
IDCOL
Management
Level
Overall Program Operation & Management
(Design, Finance, Training, Annual survey)
Database
Qualification,
Regular Report Instruction,
(Installation & Tech Standards, Loan & Subsidy Repayment
Payment status)
Check
Approval of
equipment
Equipment
supply
Equipment
Partner Organizations (POs)
SHS Providers
(Installation, Installments
collection, regular check)
Suppliers
Payment
Service
Providers
Database
SHS Sales,
Down payment, Installation,
Monthly
Maintenance, Loan & Subsidy
installments
Aftercare
Users
Users
Users
(Households,
(Households,
Small
shops,
etc.)
(Households,Small
Smallshops,
shops,etc.)
etc.)
27
SHS
Users
SHS
SHS
IDCOL
POs
PO
83
PO
SHS
IDCOL
IDCOL
IDCOL
IDCOL
SHS
PO
PO
SHS
PO
IDCOL
IDCOL
25
PO
PDCA
PO
IDCOL
2,000
PO
Grameen Shakti
IDCOL
46
Grameen Technology Centers
SHS
25
2013
47
12
SHS
PO SHS
50
10
3
30
30
PO
LED
70
140
LED
84
28
IDCOL
(
)
85
29
Grameen Shakti
•
(PO)
•
15%
3
SHS
50Wp
50
25
20Wp
補助金
(US$25)
初期費用
(補助金を除
いた分の15%
US$56)
市場価格
(US$400)
ローンを組む
部分
(3年間月賦
年利
12‒16%
US$8.5/月)
30
(50Wp
)
86
(PO)
80%
IDCOL
1–2
6–9%
70%
5–7
Refinance
20%
30%
1 SHS
PO
PO
3
5,000 SHS
SHS
PO
NGO
POs
50 120
SHS
Output-based Aid (OBA)26
OBA
IDCOL
IDCOL
2
27
/
SHS
Grameen Shakti
SHS
SHS
SHS
IDCOL
/
SHS
SHS
Social Impact
IDCOL
PO
(2)
(1)
3
1,000
100
(3)
(4)
26
27
https://www.gpoba.org/node/700.
IDCOL
87
Fund Flow and Role of Partners
Multilateral
Agencies
GoB
• Provides
grant and
soft loans
• Provides
technical
assistance
needed
PO
IDCOL
• Provides
grant and
soft loan to
IDCOL
• Provides grants to
reduce SHS cost
and for capacity
building
• Provides
policy
support
• Provides soft loans
• Identify
potential
customers
31
• Repay loan
in monthly
installments
• Extends
micro-credit
• Provides training,
promo support
Debt Service
• Maintain
system
• Installs SHS
• Provides after
sales services
• Monitors
implementation
Debt Service
Household
Debt Service
Debt Service
SHS
SHS
20Wp
50Wp
20Wp
SHS
CFL(
)
250
LED
1/2
LED
CFL 7W LED 3W
20Wp
50Wp
TV
TV
SHS
SHS
SHS
IDCOL
IV-5-1-2
2
9,000
SHS
23%
SHS
95%
2011
5–7
7.5
88
SHS
2
5
SHS
SHS
World Bank
(Donor)
Ministry of Finance
and Economic
Development
(MOFED)
Finance
Ethiopian
Development Bank
Energy Policy Design
Database management
Analysis
MoWE
(Federal)
Report
Regular report
User/other data (status)
Collected proposals
AEO
(Federal)
Rural Energy Program Coordinator
Vendor
Vendor
User/other data (status)
Collected proposals
Loan
Microfinancing
Microfinancing
Institution
Institution
AEO under
BoWME
AEO
(Region)
(Region)
Oromiyaa Gov't
for demonstration
User/other data (status)
Collected proposals
Bid
Report
Loan
AEOAEO
Office
(Zone)
(Zone)
Order
Payment
User/other data (status)
Collected proposals
AEOAEO
Office
(Woreda)
(Woreda)
Contractor
Contractor
Installation
Maintenance
PR
Local info of cooperatives
Collect their proposals
Proposal
Request for maintenance
Cooperative
Cooperative
User
32
User
User
Unit for proposal
Assign a representative
SHS
89
SHS
SHS
SHS
SHS
TV
SHS
SHS
POs
NGOs
SHS
SHS
PicoSol
SHS
MFI
JICA
2005
xlv
2006–10
9
2010–13
1
5
5%
Sunlabob
90
10%
SHS
IV-5-2
SHS
BOP
SHS
28
20 Wp
2
SHS
20Wp
GIZ
SHS
2
IDCOL
GIZ
SHS
2
Lighting Africa
10Wp
400
IDCOL
NGO
GIZ
GIZ
IV-6. PV
PV
JICA
28
10Wp
19
91
IV-6-1
JICA PV
JICA
(PV)
PV
.29 JICA
1980
PV
III
PV
1988
1990
(SHS)
1990
PV
1990
PV
PV
SHS
50Wp
(BCS)
10%
260
SHS
10
JICA
PV
IV-6-2
JICA
1980
10
PV
PV
JICA
PV
29
USAID
PV
PV
92
PV
Lessons Learned:
SHS
PV
IV-6-3
SHS
SHS
JICA
SHS
•
•
SHS
•
SHS
•
Lessons Learned:
Lessons Learned:
SHS
Lessons Learned:
SHS
Lessons Learned:
SHS
Lessons Learned:
BCS
93
BCS
SHS
BCS
UNIDO
Lessons Learned:
IV-6-4
PV
PV
PV
2000
PV
1–2
30
PV
Lessons Learned:
PV
JICA
O&M
PV
JICA
2005
SHS
30
SHS
JICA
SPRE
(1998–2000
)
5
SHS
(IED, SHS
Inventory, Diagnosis and Troubleshooting: pilot survey report from Vientiane Province, October 2006)
SHS 8
94
Lessons Learned:
Lessons Learned:
IV-6-5
JICA
1980
PV
30
PV
PV
•
PV
SHS
•
BCS
SHS
SHS
O&M
•
PV
IV-6-6
/
PV
•
–
•
95
–
•
–
SHS
•
–
•
96
V-1.
PV
PV
/
(1)
(2)
/
(3)
IPP
(4)
ESCO
(5)
•
•
•
V-2.
97
•
11
/
/
/
/
FIT
FS
JICA/NEDO
•
•
BOP
自身
•
–
SHS
–
:
•
•
...
Lighting Africa
kWp
•
•
•
•
–
–
Distributer
BOP
or MOP
or
•
–
–
•
•
98
JICA
•
–
/
FIT
–
–
lessons learned
JICA
•
–
PPP
–
3. MARKET EVOLUTION
–
BOP FS
incl.
V-3.
31
PV
Figure 2 - Evolution of global PV annual installations 2000-2012 (MW)
35,000
30,391
31,095
30,000
25,000
20,000
17,064
15,000
10,000
5,000
303
365
471
584
1,133
1,411
1,582
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6,708
7,376
2008
2009
2,575
0
2007
2010
2011
2012
ROW
88
56
80
77
29
10
105
42
76
80
284
508
-*
MEA
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1
n/a
n/a
1
1
22
46
121
410
China
19
5
19
10
10
8
10
20
40
160
500
2,500
5,000
32
47
66
104
106
150
213
346
543
1,029
2,179
3,758
2,672
4,769
Americas 24
APAC
117
140
191
230
282
303
324
271
535
742
1,583
Europe
56
133
135
202
707
984
992
2,028
5,710
5,830
13,622 22,411 17,159
Total
303
365
471
584
1,133
1,411
1,582
2,575
6,708
7,376
17,064 30,391 31,095
* From 2012 onwards, these figures are directly integrated into those of the relevant regions.
33
31
PV
xlvi
Europe’s market has progressed rapidly over the past decade: from an annual market of less than 1 G
in 2003 to a market of over 13.6 GW in 2010 and 22.4 GW in 2011 – even in the face of difficult econom
PV
/
circumstances and varying levels of opposition to PV in some countries. But the record performance
2011, driven by the fast expansion of PV in Italy and again a high level of installations in Germany, w
not repeatable in 2012 and the market went down to 17.2 GW. For the first time in the
99 last 12 years, th
PV market in Europe decreased in terms of new connected capacity.
Even so, in 2012 the PV market in Europe again exceeded all expectations. However, due to variab
delays in connecting PV systems to the grid depending on the country, some installations from 201
were not connected until 2011 and this repeated again in 2012. This has an impact on mark
At the regional level, the utility-scale segment is expected to at best stagnate in Europe even as it booms
in the Americas and Asia including China. In both scenarios, the APAC region including China should
see the largest share of new utility-scale applications, ahead of the Americas.
Figure 26 - Global rooftop and utility-scale PV market by region until 2017 EPIA Business-as-Usual scenario (MW)
30,000
Historical
data
24,140
25,000
21,622
20,000
27,000
Rooftop PV
Historical
data
Utility-scale PV
21,420
17,310
21,300
18,230
18,180
15,410
15,000
12,570
10,500
9,473
10,000
5,000
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
MEA
47
150
200
250
410
480
362
510
720
1,050
1,490
1,920
China
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,000
5,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,000
5,000
Americas 1,872
2,710
3,050
3,980
5,070
5,750
1,886
3,010
3,610
4,810
6,140
6,980
APAC
3,225
3,780
4,500
5,730
6,290
6,850
1,544
1,950
2,440
2,930
3,220
3,510
Europe
13,977
7,680
6,980
7,460
8,370
8,920
3,182
2,030
2,310
2,620
3,340
3,890
Total
21,622
17,310
18,230
21,420
24,140
27,000
9,473
10,500
12,570
15,410
18,180
21,300
34
2013
7
PV
2015
(BaU
)xlvii
35 GWp
2012
2 GWp
40 MWp
0.42
/kWh 7
0.95
2017
/kWh
PV
/kWh
1.00
0.90
/kWh
/kWh
4–5 GWp 2022
20 GWp
2010
13
FIT
generation-based incentives, validity gap funding, bundling scheme
CO2
PAT
EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2013-2017 • 37
100
Electrification Rate (2011)
(%)
100
90
80
70
PV
60
F
50
40
30
(
kWp)
Off-Grid System
20
On-Grid System
Pico-Solar
10
0
1 Wp
1
: ~5
Community-based
PV System
SHS
Solar
Lantern
10
10Wp
100
100Wp
1 kWp
1,000
35
Mini-Grid
10 kWp
10,000
100 kWp
100,000
Mega-Solar
1 MWp
1,000,000
: ~25
10 MWp 100,000,000
100 MWp
10,000,000
/kWp
PV
10
4 MWp
20
V-4.
V-4-1
/
PV
/
/
LED
PV
PV
101
/
–
–
–
/
–
PV
–
PV
2 kW
PV
PV
–
–
SHS
/
–
–
–
SHS
102
V-4-2
IPP
PV
/
SHS
KIOSK/BCS
kWh
40
JICA
5
–
–
–
FIT
PV
LED
KIOSK
PV
103
analysis provides the optimum values for these parameters.
The accessible penetration rates depend on the actual shape of the load curve.
Large systems benefit from economies of scale in the cost of the PV array and the battery bank. In areas
with good solar resource, the cost for generating one kilowatt-hour from solar PV can reach profitable
values compared to the cost of one kilowatt-hour generated from diesel.
This type of town may have a significant potential for economic development and the question of their
future connection to the main grid should be considered when
assessing the economic value of the
/ (medium
3.2.3 Electrification of a village with productive activities
size hybrid system:
project, comparing the timeframe for grid connection versus investment payback period.
30 to 100 kWp)
Medium-size
hybrid
systems are
suitable
to supply
the power
a village
wherethe
productive
and
Stakeholders
considering
a hybrid
system
for this
kind ofneeds
townofshould
consider
parameters
commercial
activities
use
energy
during
the
daytime.
presented below.
•
12
xlviii
/
Village
with
peak load inpertaining
the range
kW
to 150
kW,
Table
5: Matrix
foradecision-making
to 60
large
hybrid
systems
and a daily power consumption of 300 kWh
to 1000 kWh/day.
Large hybrid system ( above 100 kWp PV )
Small town with significant economic activity
Peak load > 150 kW
> 1000 kWh/day
The typical daily load curve of such a village shows a significant power demand at midday and in the
Level of
Required
Option
Key figures
for economic
financial
analysis
early afternoon. There is generally
a higher
load in /the
evening
due to lighting uses. There
loadskills
serviceis a base
operating
during the night. The genset (or two synchronized gensets) of the hybrid system is used to cover the
distance
HV and MV
development potential timeline for grid
Grid
extension
fullload,
servicea significant
No
evening
peak.toThe
supplied
byofthe
battery. As a result
of the midday
grid night load is
line
costs
the locality
connection
share of solar energy is used directly when it is generated. The required battery capacity is defined
according to the
excess
to the amount of energy required to cover the night
load
genset
cost PV production
actual cost and
of -cost
synchronized
of kWh generated
after being fully
charged
evening
genset.
Battery
capacity
may
be
proportionally
smaller
Diesel-based
200-300
€ / kWin thediesel
fuel by the
gensets
from a pure diesel plant gensets lifespan
full service
power
operation
than plant
for small hybrid systems if the night load is low; in that case a battery capacity of 0.5-0.8 times
the &
-yearly
O&M
costs
+BOSgeneration
cost
kWh be
tariffsufficient.
maintenance
daily solar energy
could
PV array
-payback period
Reaching high1500
PV penetration
rates
in this category of systems requires
very large initial investments.
accessible
k€ / kWp
synchronized
- cost ofrate
kWhwould
generated
That is why the accessible rangepenetration
of PV penetration
not be
higher
60%. O&M
-long
lastingthan
PV approximately gensets
Hybrid-based
power plant
battery renewal
(10-12 years)
Stakeholders
150 considering
k€ / MWh
from the PV array
rate
investment (25yrs)
full service
-reduced O&M
costsof
remote
locality
+ training on
electrifying a
this
type with
a
-increased
genseteither grid extension,
UPS systems
kWh tariff
lifespan
genset-based power
plant or a hybrid system should consider the parameters
presented below.
+BOS cost
Investment data shown for comparing options does not include cost of the local MV / LV grid or minigrid
Table 4: Matrix for decision-making pertaining to medium-size hybrid systems
Village with productive activities
Medium size hybrid system ( 30 to 100 kWp PV )
Option
IEA PVPS Task 9 – CLUB-ER
Peak load 60-150 kW
300-1000 kWh/day
expected growth
Level of
Key figures for economic / financial analysis
service
Rural electrification with PV hybrid systems – July 2013
Grid extension
distance
to grid
MV line cost
8-13 k€ / km
Diesel-based
power plant
initial investment
actual cost of
(incl.2 to 3 gensets diesel fuel
for load following)
80-150 k€
kWh tariff
yearly sales
110 to 370 MWh / year
-if mandatory subsidy
on diesel: for a total of
110 to 370 MWh / year
(Ex: 12 to 40 k€/year)*
timeline for grid
extension
gensets lifespan
Required
operating
27skills
full service
No
full service
synchronized
gensets
operation &
maintenance
-yearly O&M costs
-payback period
initial investment
420-560 k€
-reduced mandatory
subsidy on diesel:
@40% PV penetration:
65-220 MWh/year
(Ex: 7 to 24 k€/year)*
accessible
penetration
rate > 40%
Hybrid-based
power plant
(Ex: 70 kWp PV) + battery renewal
(8 years) 80-110 k€ kWh tariff
-reduced O&M costs
-long lasting PV
investment (25yrs)
-battery lifespan
synchronized
gensets O&M
full service
-Reduced genset
investment (no
unit for baseload),
increased lifespan
+ training &
distant support
required
Investment data shown for comparing options does not include cost of the local MV / LV grid or minigrid.
Initial investment and battery renewal cost for the PV / diesel hybrid option are based on a 70 kWp system as an example.
*Based on a 30% subsidy on 1.00 €/L fuel price and genset consumption 0.35 L/kWh
V-5.
The amount of capital required in this range of hybrid power plants is significant (200 to 900 kEUR,
compared to 80 to 150k EUR for a diesel plant), and would generally imply the involvement of
JICA
commercial banks and the private sector.
SHS
IEA PVPS Task 9 – CLUB-ER
SHS
Rural electrification with PV hybrid systems – July 2013
BOP
KIOSK
24
BCS
104
BOP
JICA
PV
kWh
40
PV
PV
100 kW
PV
IPP
/
/
PV
FIT
V-6.
JICA
/
JICA
PV
105
JICA
O&M
JICA
JICA
–
–
(PPP
)
–
(BOP
)
–
–
–
–
–
NEDO JBIC
JCM32
JICA
–
–
32
2014
/
/FIT
JCM
106
–
FS
33
JICA/NEDO
–
–
•
13
JICA/
PV
(
PV)
(
PV DG
DG)
25
DG
25
JICA
24
24
24
24
1000
24
(
(
)
)PBS
kWh
PCS
(BOP
)
24
25
2012
(BOP
)
−
(BOP
)
BOP
2012
(BOP
)
23
GS
2013
(BOP
)
GS
(BOP
)
33
JICA
http://libopac.jica.go.jp NEDO
http://www.nedo.go.jp/library/
107
1
V-7.
,34
–
–
–
–
/
–
–
PV
KPLC
MW
15
PV
KPLC
34
130
SHS (
40Wp
)
Grameen Shakti
PV
108
0%#
Apr,11#
36
Oct,12#
Sep,12#
3
0%#
24
KPLC
PV
Oct,12#
Sep,12#
Elwak&EFFp&
Aug,12#
5%#
Oct,12#
Sep,12#
Aug,12#
Jul,12#
Jun,12#
May,12#
Apr,12#
Mar,12#
Feb,12#
Jan,12#
Dec,11#
Nov,11#
Oct,11#
Sep,11#
Lodwar'EFFp'
Jul,12#
10%#
5%#
Jun,12#
15%#
10%#
Apr,12#
20%#
15%#
Sep,12#
Aug,12#
Jul,12#
Jun,12#
May,12#
Apr,12#
Mar,12#
Feb,12#
Jan,12#
Dec,11#
Nov,11#
Oct,11#
Sep,11#
Aug,11#
Jul,11#
Jun,11#
May,11#
Apr,11#
Mar,11#
Feb,11#
Jan,11#
Oct,12#
Sep,12#
Aug,12#
Jul,12#
Jun,12#
May,12#
Apr,12#
Mar,12#
Feb,12#
Jan,12#
Dec,11#
Nov,11#
Oct,11#
Sep,11#
Hola%EFFp%
May,12#
25%#
20%#
Jan,12#
25%#
Feb,12#
▶
Jul,11#
Jul,11#
Jun,11#
Aug,11#
45%#
Mar,12#
30%#
Oct,11#
35%#
Dec,11#
40%#
Nov,11#
10.3%
Aug,11#
Apr,11#
16.4%
Sep,11#
45%#
Jul,11#
9.5%
Aug,11#
▶
Jun,11#
30%#
Apr,11#
35%#
May,11#
40%#
Feb,11#
45%#
Mar,11#
0%#
Jan,11#
Oct,12#
Sep,12#
Aug,12#
Jul,12#
Jun,12#
May,12#
Apr,12#
Mar,12#
Feb,12#
Jan,12#
Dec,11#
Nov,11#
Oct,11#
Sep,11#
5%#
0%#
Jun,11#
Jul,11#
10%#
5%#
Apr,11#
0%#
Aug,11#
15%#
10%#
May,11#
30%#
▶
May,11#
5%#
0%#
Jun,11#
35%#
Jan,11#
10%#
5%#
Apr,11#
20%#
15%#
Feb,11#
40%#
Feb,11#
15%#
10%#
May,11#
25%#
20%#
Jan,11#
25%#
Mar,11#
45%#
Mar,11#
Habaswein)EFFp)
Jul,12#
20%#
15%#
Feb,11#
Mer$%EFFp%
Aug,12#
25%#
20%#
Jan,11#
25%#
Mar,11#
Marsabit(EFFp(
Jun,12#
May,12#
Apr,12#
Mar,12#
Feb,12#
Jan,12#
Dec,11#
Nov,11#
Oct,11#
Sep,11#
Aug,11#
Jul,11#
Jun,11#
May,11#
▶
Jan,11#
▶
Feb,11#
▶
Mar,11#
KPLC
Ren E Ratio
2.2% (kWh)
40%#
Diesel Effective Capacity
300 kW~1,670 kW
35%#
30%#
45%#
2.5%
40%#
35%#
30%#
45%#
3.8%
40%#
35%#
30%#
: KPLC
(PV/
)
V-8.
/
PV
35
35
109
119
CHAPTER 4
BOP
Extending energy access to unserved communities has a huge impact on human development, but it is often seen as a
development imperative. This report shows that it is also a $37 billion market that many companies are already serving
BOP
RTQƂVCDN[ 6JGTG CTG VJTGG OCKP QRRQTVWPKVKGU KP VJG OCTMGV JQWUGJQNF FGXKEGU OKPKWVKNKVKGU CPF ITKF GZVGPUKQP
Below are the key success factors that the most successful companies are demonstrating. This graphic shows which
stakeholders have a role to play in each set of success factors.
Household-Level Devices
Mini-Utilities
Grid Extension
$GPGƂV
Clean cooking & lighting
Lighting and more
Electricity
Imperative
Basic needs
Productive uses
Modern societal development
Opportunity
$31 billion
$4 billion
$2 billion
Key Success Factors
in the Operating
Model
1. Make products affordable by
innovative design of product and
business model
2TQXKFGƃGZKDNGRC[OGPV
terms to spread connection costs
2TQXKFGƃGZKDNGRC[OGPV
terms for connection costs
$WKNFQTVCRNQECNOWNVK
product distribution networks
5GEWTGTGNKCDNGNQYEQUV
primary energy (fuel or feedstock)
2. Secure business model with
some degree of public support
3. Strengthen consumer
EQPƂFGPEGKPGPGTI[FGXKEGU
3. Design adequate population
density and load factor
3. Manage payment risk and
theft
Challenges
Challenges
for
for operating
operating
companies
companies
a. Make the energy
device or service
affordable
4. Focus on replicability and
entrepreneurs with technical
expertise and business acumen
to scale operations
b. Get the basics of
operation right
c. Play to the strengths
of the company
Key Success Factors
in the Ecosystem
Conditions
Roles for
governments and
their development
partners
a. Create the right
ecosystem conditions
b. Establish an
independent
entity to advance
the access objectives
1. Create quality standards and
p
provide information on products
5GVOKPKWVKNKVKGUVCTKHHUCV
commercially viable rates
1. Remove limits on service
areas
2. Build technology awareness in
the market
2. Develop policies to encourage
OKPKWVKNKVKGU
2. Remove restrictions on
supplying informal settlements
3. Remove discriminatory taxes
and duties across energy
products
3. Remove onerous licensing and
permit barriers
#NNQYHQTƃGZKDKNKV[KPVCTKHH
regulation and universal service
funds
(CEKNKVCVGEQPUWOGTƂPCPEG
particularly for solar home
systems
4. Provide concessional
ƂPCPEKPIVQEQXGT
connection costs
&GUKIPUOCTVGNGEVTKƂECVKQP
subsidies
5. Finance the carbon credit
process
2TQXKFGNQPIVGTOFGDVCPF
GSWKV[VQUWRRQTVUVCTVWRCPF
growth
6. Finance company growth and
operations from an early stage
7. Train and support local
entrepreneurs and industry
contributors
a. Provide appropriate funding for
each part of the business life cycle
c. Resist giveaway
programs and
unrealistic promises
b. Establish deal marketplaces
and local presence to discover
hidden gems
d. Decide which
solutions are the best
ƂVHQTVJGCEEGUUIQCNU
c. Keep investment mandates broad
and beyond a single technology
37
Opportunities for impact
and commercial investors
d. Support enterprise
development and business
OQFGNTGƂPGOGPV
e. Fund delivery entities, and support
the provision of resource and market
data, consumer awareness, and standards
xlix
FIGURE 4.2: Summary of key success factors and recommendations
Source: IFC analysis.
110
VI-1.
VI-1-1
PV
JICA
(PV)
1980
PV
PV
PV
1/3
PV
PV
JICA
PV
111
VI-1-2
JICA
JICA
PV
PV
JICA
2
1990
(SHS)
2000
36
Lesson Learned 1
SHS
PV
PV
Specific
Projects
Development
of Operating/
Management
Structure
[Ownership,
Sustainability]
1980s
36
1980
1990s
PV
PV
Development
of Master
Plan
[Plan for
Expansion]
Capacity
Development
for
Implementation
and Spread
[Removal of
bottlenecks]
Organizational
Structure
Institutional
Development
Financial Flow
Technology
Transfer
…
2000s
10
PV
112
JICA
PV
260
2,000
SHS
SHS
PV
,
Lesson Learned 2
(BCS)
100%
PV
SHS
SHS
1
30
kWp
10 MW
2 MWp
JICA
1 MWp
PV
VI-2. JICA
VI-2-1
VI-2-1-1.
JICA
Lessons Learned
JICA
PV
20Wp
Solar Home System (SHS)
MWp
113
O&M
PV
PV
O&M
Lesson Learned 3
JICA
PV
JICA
,
,
PV
VI-2-1-2.
JICA
PV
PV
SHS
PV
/
SHS
2009
10
SHS
SHS
,
114
expert sought to
approach, putting
uring the PV trainng those qualified
ngineers and technstall and maintain
This approach is in
nal SHS projects,
ll the system with-
time there were
s available who
tive PV training.
mentioned three
alified as intermeere appointed as
experts” for the
.
tanese side initialthe experts from
ments Dr. Shiota,
were surprised at
edge and skills of
when they actually
uld perform. They
ding trainers, precurriculum which
al techniques as
ft my assignment
them gained furile active in the
rsons in PV teched their skills as
pted some parts of
materials to better
ns.”
xperts nurtured
ring their first asnd on their second,
utanese trainers to
ng experience. As
ed the significant
aining outstanding
pino experts who
chnical knowledge
ing me, saying, “Dr. Shiota, you changed
us. Without you, we were not PV train- without any prior experience of the
ers. We couldn’t come to Bhutan. If we PV system but low among those with
couldn’t come here, no Bhutanese PV experience. This tendency suggests that
trainers would have been nurtured. You many PV training courses conducted in
are our founder.” I was delighted on the past have been inappropriate, and
hearing this and felt a great sense of that many engineers and technicians
satisfaction to know that my own PV have been taught improperly. They have
JICA
70
2013
technical training methods had borne been working on SHS projects with missuch fruit. Even so, they had worked very understood knowledge.
It 40%
is often very difficult to correct
hard indeed. They were assiduous in their
studies, felt pride and dedication in their such misunderstandings during the trainSHS
SHSsince those involved have
ing period,
role as JICA third-country experts,
and JICA
effectively used their private time to believed their knowledge to be correct
for many years. For that reason, Dr.
prepare for their training sessions.”
Shiota stresses, it is important to provide
, 2009 for2010
Future Vision
SHS
the proper PV training to ensure that
trainees can acquire the right technical
Dr. Shiota warns that widespread incor- knowledge and skills from the outset.
rect knowledge has been undermining
“The demand for engineers and techLesson
Learned
4
the sustainable exploitation of SHSs. nicians who have the
right
knowledge
Although it seems like a simple system, and skills in PV technology is increasan SHS must be designed appropriately ing. That’s why I hope to create a selffor the environment in which it is learning DVD training course in order to
installed and the culture of the users.
prevent misunderstandings and to ensure
“I have made an interesting obser- that anyone can easily learn the proper
vation about our PV training course,” ways to achieve a sustainable SHS.”
says Dr. Shiota. “The pass rate of the
qualification exam is high among those MATSUI Yoko is a freelance writer.
Three Filipino experts (far left, Magdaleno M. Baclay, Jr.; from far right, Camelo
B. Cabuga and Romeo M. Galamgam) with Bhutanese PV trainees and trainers
following the successful training program in April 2010. At center is JICA rural
electrification expert Ms. Orui Kuri.
Lesson Learned 5
The Japan Journal OCTOBER 2010 5
PV/SHS
115
Jomo Kenyatta
BRIGHT
PV
VI-2-2
SHS
VI-2-2-1.
Lessons Learned
SHS
,
.
SHS
PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act)
.
100
SHS
SHS
SHS
116
(10Wp
)
TV
SHS (50Wp
)
VI-2-2-2.
JICA
SHS
, SHS
SHS
1
/
.37
Lesson Learned 6
SHS
SHS
(
)
SHS
SHS
(
Lesson Learned 7
)
(
SHS
)
SHS
SHS
37
117
Structure of the SHS Program
SHS Flow
Financing Flow
Report
Central Gov’t
Ministry (of Energy)
Overall Policy
SHS Program
Supervising
Organization
Entrust Financial
Service
?
=
Loan & Grant
Management
Level
Governmental
Financial Institution
Database
Donors
Database
Qualification,
Instruction,
Tech Standards,
Check
SHS
SHS Providers
Providers
Loan &
Grant
?
=
Micro
Micro Finance
Finance
Institutions
Institutions
Database
Database
SHS Sales,
Installation,
Maintenance,
Aftercare
Service
Providers to
Users
Loan &
Grant
Users
Users
Users
(Households,
(Households,
Small
shops,
etc.)
(Households,Small
Smallshops,
shops,etc.)
etc.)
SHS
Lesson Learned 8
SHS
SHS
118
SHS
Lesson Learned 9
SHS
(output-based)
.
SHS
(
Lesson Learned 10
)
(
)
PDCA
SHS
IDCOL
SHS
JICA
SHS
119
JICA
(
or
)
Do-It-Yourself
SHS
.38
SHS
TV
VI-2-3
VI-2-3-1.
JICA
Lessons Learned
PV
/
JICA
SHS
BCS (battery charging station)
PV
PV
, PV
CO2
JICA
2008
30
PV
kWp
PV
Lesson Learned 11
8
38
PV
GIZ
120
PV
,
VI-2-3-2.
2010–12
300
176
2013–15
140
160
2008
,
kWp
121
)
PV
JICA
8
PV
JICA
Lesson Learned 12
PV
.
JICA
2013
10
2
STELCO
PV
PV
122
JICA
VI-3. JICA
JICA
(
NGO
,
)
123
124