合同開発委員会と 改革を進める世界銀行グループ

合同開発委員会と
改革を進める世界銀行グループ
2009年12月16日
世銀・IMF合同開発委員会事務局長
小寺 清
開発委員会は何を議論してきたか？
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© Main topic
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Major Topics
Achieving the MDGs / Global Monitoring Report
Financing for Development / Financing Modalities/ Scaling Up
Debt/HIPC/MDRI
Development Effectiveness/ Results/ Paris Declaration
Aid
ArchitectureVolumeThe Bank and the Fund in International Financial/Aid Architecture
Effectiveness
CDF/PRS
Middle-Income Countries / IBRD Capital Adequacy
African Action Plan
Post-Conflict Countries/Small States/Fragile States
Voice & Participation
Internal Governance
Governance and
Anticorruption
Global Public Goods
Clean Energy for Development/ Climate Change
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√ Background document
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Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development
Bank-Fund Collaboration
Effective Insolvency Systems; Principles and Guidelines
Combating Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing
SDN+FPD
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Investment Climate and Infrastructure Development
Principles of Good Social Policies
HIV/AIDs Action Program
Education for All
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Current Topics-Response to Crisis
Doha Development Agenda and Aid for Trade
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The World Bank Group Strategic/ Post-crisis Directions
PREM
2008
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概要
3



最近の途上国経済の動き
世銀グループの経済危機対応
世銀グループの４つの大きな課題
 資本増強
 ポスト危機時代の戦略作成
 世銀ガバナンスへの途上国の声と参加
 内部改革の推進
A recovery is underway, but is relatively weak,
uneven, and subject to considerable risks
Real GDP growth rates (%)
The crisis has hurt medium-term growth prospects―with high
excess capacity and unemployment continuing for several years
Output gap (% of potential GDP)
2013
Poverty impact of the growth slowdown
is large―and rising
6
Increase in number of poor (millions)
140
120
120
100
89
80
64
60
50
40
20
0
US$ 1.25/day
US$ 2.00/day
2009
Growth collapses are costly for human
development outcomes―the MDGs, already
in jeopardy, face further setbacks
7
• Serious shortfalls on most human development MDGs; prospects are gravest in health.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is falling short on all MDGs.
• South Asia lags on all human development MDGs. Achievement of the poverty
reduction MDG also is now threatened.
% of goal
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
MDG1.a:
Extreme
poverty
MDG1.c:
Hunger
MDG2:
Primary
education
Achieved by 2007
MDG3:
Gender
parity
MDG4:
Child
mortality
MDG5.a: MDG7.c: MDG7.c:
Maternal Access to Access to
mortality safe water sanitation
Needed to be achieved by 2007 to be on track
Private capital flows are unlikely to recover to
pre-crisis levels for some time
8
US$ billion
percent
Net Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries
1600
10
9
8
1200
7
6
Percent of GDP (right axis)
800
5
4
3
400
2
1
0
0
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010p
2013p
Developing countries will face large financing gaps
into the medium term
US$ billion
External
financing
needs
Financing
gap
Note: Includes 59 countries with financing gap
Scarcer and more expensive capital will act as a drag on
developing country growth
10
Impact of a 100 basis point increase in the cost of
capital on developing country potential output
Potential GDP
100
99
During transition, potential
growth rate declines by .7
percentage points
98
Higher capital costs
contribute to a 3.7
percent decline in
potential output
97
96
95
94
93
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
概要
11



最近の途上国経済の動き
世銀グループの経済危機対応
世銀グループの４つの大きな課題
 資本増強
 ポスト危機時代の戦略作成
 世銀ガバナンスへの途上国の声と参加
 内部改革の推進
世界銀行グループの危機への対応
単位：億㌦
世界銀行グループは2009世銀年度
（2008年7月から2009年6月）、世界的な
経済危機の影響を受けた国々を支援するた
め、588億ドルの融資等を承諾（対前年度
比54％増・過去最高額）。
2009年度*
2008年度
IBRD
329
135
IDA
140
112
IFC
105
114
MIGA
14
21
合計
588
382
参考：世銀グループの脆弱層支援枠組み（Vulnerability
Framework）
脆弱層支援ファシリティ（VFF：
Vulnerability Financing Facility）
食糧価格高騰対策支援
( Global Food Crisis Response Program )
食糧価格高騰による貧困層への影響軽
減のためのセーフティネット構築・食
糧価格安定政策の導入等支援
IDA支援前倒し
第15次増資で確保された今後3年間で
420億ドルの融資財源を活用・前倒し執
行
12
社会的セーフティネット強化支援
( Rapid Social Response facility）
(英国 2億ﾎﾟﾝﾄﾞ拠出予定）
●雇用確保
● Social Safety Net 強化
● Basic Social Serviceへのアクセス
インフラ復興
プラットフォー
ム
ＩＦＣ民間
セクター支援
インフラ整備支
援
貿易金融支援
途上国銀行
資本増強支援
IFC 10億㌦
日本(JBIC)20億㌦
ﾏｲｸﾛﾌｧｲﾅﾝｽ
支援
貿易金融支援
( 日 本 （ JBIC ） 60 億
㌦)
ADB ・ IFC と も 協 力
して実施
概要
13



最近の途上国経済の動き
世銀グループの経済危機対応
世銀グループの４つの大きな課題
 資本増強
 ポスト危機時代の戦略作成
 世銀ガバナンスへの途上国の声と参加
 内部改革の推進
IBRD’s crisis lending expected to reach $136b over FY09-12; the assumed $15b p.a.
post-crisis commitment is lower than the average of the last 20 years in real term
60
Projected
Historical
50
“Expected
Case”
$ Billion
40
“High Case”
Real
30
“Low Case”
Nominal
20
10
Nominal
$15b annual
commitment postcrisis is a conservative
assumption; similar to
last 10 yrs, but lower
than last 20 yrs in real
terms
Real
Disbursed and Outstanding +
Undisbursed Commitments ($b)
14
"Prolonged Recession"
(High Case Lending)
"Quick Recovery" (Low
Case Lending)
FY14
FY12
FY10
FY08
FY06
FY18
Expected Case
FY04
FY02
FY00
Lending Scenario
FY16
Loan Exposure Measures
FY98
FY96
FY94
FY92
FY90
-
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
157
191
211
225
227
233
237
240
243
245
247
157
197
221
239
242
247
251
254
256
257
259
157
177
189
194
197
202
207
211
215
217
221
A paid-in capital increase in the range of $3-5b would be required to be
implemented by FY11 to fill these remaining gaps
15
Actions
Expected Scenario
“Prolonged Recession”
Scenario
$4.8-$6.3b
$9.6-11.1b
Required contributions from capital increase
(end FY19)
$4.8-$6.3b
$9.6-11.1b
Required paid-in capital increase amount at
beginning of FY12 (GCI +SCI)
$3.7-4.9b
$7.5-8.7b
FY19 usable equity gap
after approved pricing increase and potential NCPIC releases
(before SCI for “voice”)
Option 1: Capital increase alone (GCI +SCI)
Option 2: Capital Increase (GCI + SCI) combined with charging for longer maturities
Increase in FY19 usable equity by charging for
longer maturities
$1.2b
$1.4b
Required contributions from capital increase
(end FY19)
$3.6-5.1b
$8.2-9.7b
$2.8-3.9b
$6.4-7.6b
Required paid-in capital increase amount at
beginning of FY12 (GCI +SCI)
概要
16



最近の途上国経済の動き
世銀グループの経済危機対応
世銀グループの４つの大きな課題
 資本増強
 ポスト危機時代の戦略作成
 世銀ガバナンスへの途上国の声と参加
 内部改革の推進
IBRD will have an important role to play in addressing global
development challenges...
17
In fulfilling its roles, IBRD will:
deploy its comparative advantages:
Global, local and cross-sectoral presence
Repository of best development practice
World class risk management and banking competencies
Leadership role in growing GPG agenda
Worldwide catalytic and convening powers
focus on four key drivers:
Traditional and innovative development finance
Knowledge products
Scaling up GPG agenda
Responding to future crises
continue reforms to enhance its:
Legitimacy: “Voice” reform
Efficiency: cost discipline
Effectiveness: Results, services delivery, decentralization, HR and IT reform
Accountability: Governance and anti-corruption
概要
18



最近の途上国経済の動き
世銀グループの経済危機対応
世銀グループの４つの大きな課題
 資本増強
 ポスト危機時代の戦略作成
 世銀ガバナンスへの途上国の声と参加
 内部改革の推進
世銀のボイス（投票権）改革 ～背景～
19
GDP（米ドル換算）の推移
高所得国（OECD）
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2008
1,002,79
3
2,214,33
4
8,145,15
0
17,438,9
66
24,748,7
69
40,862,4
08
38,446
413,651
638,443
1,235,95
2
2,390,13
0
350,173
643,754
2,519,91
2
3,730,52
3
6,020,91
8
16,937,6
11
25.88
%
23.55
%
26.48
%
20.03
%
22.67
%
32.11
%
高所得国（非
OECD）
低・中所得国
OECD以外の国が全
体に占める割合
(注1)
(注2)
出典;世界銀行 World Development Indicators
単位は百万米ドル
⇒ 世界経済において、途上国の占める比重が近年特に高まっている
世銀の理事選出コンスティテュエンシー
20
カナダ
ドイツ
オランダ
イギリス
ベルギー
フランス
北欧
イタリア
スイス
ロシア
米国
日本
サウジアラビア
中国
クウェート・バハレーン
アルジェリア モロッコ
インド
ベネズエラ、メキシコ
ブラジル、コロンビア
象牙海岸
インドネシア・タイ
ナイジェリア・南アフリカ
チリ、アルゼンチン
オーストラリア・韓国
Voice and Participation:
From Monterrey
•
Monterrey Consensus on
Financing for Development
(2002) encouraged the
World Bank and IMF
21
to continue to enhance
participation of all developing
countries and countries with
economies in transition in their
decision making and thereby to
strengthen the international
dialogue and the work of these
institutions as they address the
development needs and concerns
of these countries
Voice Dimensions
Different Concerns for Different Members
22
Voting Power and Shareholding
Effective Representation at the Board
Responsiveness to DTC Views on Development
Accelerating Voice Reform
23
Development Committee Communiqués
 April, 2008 “We look forward to a process that is inclusive and
consultative among shareholders, and to receiving concrete options from the
Bank's Board by our next meeting with a view to reaching consensus on a
comprehensive package by the 2009 Spring meeting.”
 October, 2008 ” The package of reforms enhancing voice and
participation of all developing and transition countries (DTCs) in WBG
governance and work, brought forward by the Bank’s Board, addresses
many aspects of voice and participation in light of the Monterrey
Consensus. This is an important first step in the ongoing process of
comprehensive reform. “ “The Board would develop proposals by the 2010
Spring Meeting and no later than the 2010 Annual Meetings, with a view to
reaching consensus on realignment at the following meeting. “
 April, 2009 “we agreed to accelerate work on the second phase of the
reform with a view to reaching agreement by the 2010 Spring Meetings. “
Voice Reform 2008: Phase I
Voting Power and Shareholding – IBRD
Increase Basic Votes - Increase Basic Votes to strengthen voting
power of small countries, most of whom are DTC. Basic Votes
currently at 2.8% of total votes; increase to 5.55% (effective
doubling)
 Realign IBRD Shareholding – An initial realignment allocating the
Bank’s unallocated shares (7,117) for subscription by DTC whose
voting power decreased as result of Basic Votes increase

Shift

to DTC: from 42.6% to 44.1%
Board of Governors approved January 2009. Shareholder
acceptance of Articles’ amendment on the way with more than
required 3/5 of countries. Two-thirds have accepted, with nearly
60% of the voting power. Required 85% expected in 2010.
24
Voice Reform – Phase I
Effective Representation
Additional Chair for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
Third elected ED on the 4 Bank Group Boards for the 47 SSA member
countries. Approved January 2009.
Implementation: Next Board election in 2010.
Strengthen Board Effectiveness & Internal Governance
Implement reforms from ongoing governance initiatives by EDs to
increase efficiency & reduce cost in Board operations
25
Voice Reform 2008 – Phase I
Responsiveness to DTC Views on Development
(Institutional Reforms)
Deepen responsiveness to DTC views on development – Continue to
strengthen Voice Secondment program, diversity in management & staff,
accelerate decentralization of operations and field presence (enhance
county-based platform). Regular reviews.
Process for Selection of the President –Development Committee
October 2008 Communiqué noted considerable agreement on the
importance of a selection process for the President of the Bank that is
merit-based and transparent, with nominations open to all Board
members and transparent Board consideration of all candidates.
26
Voice Reform 2008- Phase I
Institutional Reforms
Board agreed in April 2009 on how take forward recommendations from
September 2008
Report of COGAM Working Group on Internal Governance (Familiar Report)
Board effectiveness
Country program documentation,
policy papers, Board agenda, meeting
practices, chairmanship, committee
green sheets, Committee TORs
Board oversight and strategy
KEY ELEMENTS
Board Self-Evaluation, Quarterly
Reporting, Review of Risk Management
Functions, Principles for Delegation of
Authority, Policy Waivers
Board role in operations:
Pilot Conditional approval of tranche
of operations under CAS
27
Voice Reform 2009-2010 - Phase II
28



Phase II work program agreed in 2008 to require two
years or more for final package
Accelerated in light of impact of global economic crisis,
to reach agreement in April 2010
Six elements:

IBRD Shareholding Realignment:
Magnitude of shift to DTC voting power?
 Principles and Criteria for IBRD Shareholding?
 Mechanism for realignment?

IFC Voice Reform
 IDA Voice Reform
 Other Institutional Reforms

Voice Reform: Phase II
IBRD Shareholding Review


Towards an additional increase in DTC voting power, the IBRD shareholding
review by Board is developing consensus on principles, criteria and
mechanism, also taking into consideration the Bank’s uses and need for
capital
Work program for shareholding review includes:
 Review of specific development mandate of Bank vis-à-vis Fund and
implications and set out principles for IBRD shareholding
 Develop various criteria and options for realignment of IBRD
shareholding, considering relative weight in the world economy,
members’ contributions to the Bank Group mandate, and additional
Bank-specific criteria suggested by shareholders moving over time
towards equitable voting power between developed and developing
countries.
 Analyze implications of different options for realignment
 Structure available mechanisms (including possible future increases in
Basic Votes) to facilitate adjustment of relative shareholding of
members, also taking into consideration the Bank’s uses and need for
capital
29
Voice Reform: Phase II
Development Committee October 2009
30
“ We committed to pursue governance and
operational effectiveness reform in conjunction with
voting reform to ensure that the World Bank is
relevant, effective, and legitimate.”
 “We recommitted to reaching agreement by the
2010 Spring Meetings.”

Voice Reform: Phase II
Development Committee October 2009
31
“We stressed the importance of moving towards equitable
voting power in the World Bank over time through the adoption
of a dynamic formula which
primarily reflects countries’ evolving economic weight and the
World Bank’s development mission,
and that generates in the next shareholding review a significant
increase of at least 3% of voting power for developing and
transition countries, in addition to the 1.46% increase under the
first phase of this important adjustment,
to the benefit of under-represented countries. While
recognizing that over-represented countries will make a
contribution,
it will be important to protect the voting power of the smallest
poor countries.”
Voice Reform: Phase II
IBRD Shareholding Review--current stage
32


Magnitude: 2010 shift in DTC voting power of at least 3% in
addition to the 1.46% increase under Phase I
Principles and criteria: primarily economic weight in the
world economy and contributions to the Bank’s development
mandate





Economic weight (based on IMF Quotas or GDP Blend)
Recognition of IDA contributions and client engagement
Protection of smallest poor countries
Mechanism: through an increase in IBRD capital
Periodic Review: IBRD shareholding review at every 5 years
概要
33



最近の途上国経済の動き
世銀グループの経済危機対応
世銀グループの４つの大きな課題
 資本増強
 ポスト危機時代の戦略作成
 世銀ガバナンスへの途上国の声と参加
 内部改革の推進
Voice Reform: Phase II
Institutional Reforms
34




Management has increased diversity and is continuing to
deepen decentralization and field presence.
The Bank’s Board and Management have ongoing internal
governance improvements in progress.
The High Level Commission on the Modernization of World
Bank Group Governance, led by former President of Mexico
Zedillo, has completed its work.
The Development Committee asked for a report in Spring
2010 on progress and proposals for advancing reforms in
WBG corporate governance, accountability and operational
effectiveness.
The High Level Commission on the Modernization of
World Bank Group Governance ( Zedillo Commission)
35









世銀に対する現状認識として、「戦略が効果的に策定できない」「ボイス」
「アカウンタビリティ」という３つの問題を提示。
５分野にわたる提言。①VOICE改革（理事会改革）、②世銀ガバナンス改革、
③総裁選出の見直し、④マネージメントの責任強化及び⑤世銀グループの増
資。（全てをパッケージで実施する必要）。
①VOICE改革（理事会改革）
理事数は20に縮小（欧州は３まで縮小）。任命理事は廃止し、すべて選任理事
とする（選任国は一理事室当たり10までとする）。
ボイスは、まず先進国と途上国で平等になることを目指す。基礎票割合を当初
水準（世銀10.78％、IFC12.28％）程度まで引き上げ。
協定改正の多数決を85％から80％に引き下げ（米国の拒否権廃止）。
②世銀ガバナンス改革
現行の理事会を大臣出席の理事会（年数回）とし、戦略の決定、監視、総裁の
パフォーマンス評価の場とする。ワシントンに5年間の時限措置として、理事
会を補佐するアドバイザリー評議会を置く（メンバーは資格要件あり）。
融資承認権限はマネージメントに委譲する。
The High Level Commission on the Modernization of World
Bank Group Governance ( Zedillo Commission)ー続き
36




③総裁選出の見直し
ルールベースの選考。国籍に関係なくオープン。 IFC及びMIGAの長官の選
考は、引き続き総裁の任命。しかし、ルールベースの選考とし、職務内容
及び資格要件は理事会承認とする。
④マネージメントの責任強化
Safety Net Units （IEG、IP、IAD、QAG、INT）の強化。それぞれの現行の
役割等について、2010年までにレビューを完了。IEG改革の実施（スタッ
フの外部採用、世銀と人事交流の廃止、等）。

毎年度、総裁のパフォーマンス評価を理事会で実施。

外部評価を積極的に活用すべき。

⑤世銀グループの増資

世銀グループの資金基盤の強化に賛成。危機のニーズ等に対応するため、
現行の資本では十分ではないない。
Decentralization
37




More than 60 ％ of regional operational staff (IRS and LRS)
at GF+ in country offices.
IRS based in the field average 27 ％ and of the 500 or so
field-based IRS, 33 ％ are at level GH and 54 ％ at level
GG.
The share of IRS based in country offices has grown
steadily over the years in AFR, EAP, MNA, and SAR. EAP
has the largest share of IRS in the field, but the growth the
share of IRS in AFR has grown from 18 ％ in FY02 to 35 ％
today.
During the last five years, the Bank’s presence in fragile and
conflict-affected states has grown by 56 ％, faster than the
overall staff growth in country offices (36 ％).
Investment Lending Reform
Operational Risk Assessment Framework
PROJECT STAKEHOLDER OPERATING ENVIRONMENT RISKS
RISKS
2.1 Country Risk
1
2
2.2 Institutional Risk
(Sector / Multi-Sector Level)
Politics &
Governance
Ownership
Society
3
Accountability &
Oversight
Institutional
Capacity
Institutional Fraud
& Corruption
Decision Making
Policy
1.1 Stakeholder Risk
IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES RISKS (Including FM & PR risks)
3.2 Governance Risk
Donor Relations
Environment
Decision Making
Accountability & Oversight
Borrower Relations
Security
3.1 Capacity Risk
Resources
Processes & Systems
PROJECT RISKS
4
Behavior & Norms
4.1 Design Risk
Other Key Relations
Civil Society
Capacity
Ownership
3.3 Fraud & Corruption Risk
Bank Image & Brand
Systemic Fraud
& Corruption
Technical
Complexity
Geographic
Dispersion
4.2 Safeguards Risk
Program
Dependencies
Sustainability
Social
Donor
Collaboration
Measurability
Other
Donor Delivery
Contract
*Management
Design Flexibility
38
Economic
Management
Transparency & Controls
4.4 Delivery Quality
Risk
Environmental
Arrangement
Complexity
Prevalence of F&C
4.3 Program & Donor
Risk
4.5 Other Risks (Top 2)
New Access to Information Policy
39

公開対象となる文書を特定する現行のpositive list方式から、非公開の文書の
みを特定しそれ以外は原則公開とするnegative list方式へパラダイムシフ
ト。
非公開文書の類型：個人情報、倫理委員会、attorney-client関係、職員の安
全に関する情報、IEG・IP・INT関連（機関ごとにそれぞれ個別の公開ルー
ルを策定）、メンバー国乃至第三者から秘ベースで提供された情報、
deliberative information、世銀の金融活動にかかる情報
非公開文書の太宗も一定期間（5,10,20年）経過後は開示することを原則と
する。
 他方で、結論にいたるまでのdeliberative processについては非公開とする。
→（従来の漸進的改革により世銀の公開対象文書の範囲が既にかなり広がっ
ていたこともあり）本改革により追加的に開示されることになる文書の類
型は、プロジェクトの準備段階や実施途中段階の情報、公開されるAAAの
増加、理事会関連文書等。
 新政策は2010年7月から適用

気候変動と開発 気候投資基金
（CIF：Climate Investment Funds）
○CIFは、途上国の気候変動問題への取組を支援するため、世界銀行に設立された多国間基金。
日米英を中心に基金設立の検討が進められ、昨年7月1日の世界銀行理事会で基金設立を決定。
○我が国は、最大12億ドルの拠出を行うことを表明。その他、米国が3年間で20億ドル 、英
国が3年間で8億ポンドを拠出予定。昨年9月26日のプレッジング会合において、日米英に加
え、ドイツ、フランス等7ヶ国が拠出表明。総額61億ドル。
ドナー国
拠出
ドナー国
ドナー国
世界銀行（基金の資金管理）
実施機関
被支援国
気候投資基金（CIF）
国際開発金融機関
（MDBs）
緩和対策
クリーン・テクノロジー
基金
（Clean Technology
Fund）
途上国における温室効果ガス
削減に資する緩和対策を支援
戦略気候基金
（Strategic Climate
Fund）
世界銀行
資金
支援
アジア開発銀行
米州開発銀行
適応対策
アフリカ開発銀行
気候変動の影響を
軽減するため支援
欧州復興開発銀行
資金
支援
森林保全（予定）
資金
支援
森林減少防止等の
ための対策支援
・・・
気候変動にかかる特定のプロ
グラムを設置・支援実施。 ※
温室効果ガスを削
減するための支援
（電力、運輸、ビ
ル分野等のプロ
ジェクトを実施）
40
※エネルギーアクセスのプログラムも検討