12月14日 - オーストラリア・ニュージーランド銀行

ANZ RESEARCH
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS WEEKLY
14 DECEMBER 2012
INSIDE
Economic Update
The Week Ahead
In Focus
Data Preview
Data Calendar
Forecasts
豪準備銀行が与えたもの、連邦準備理事会が奪ったもの
•
予想通り、米連邦準備理事会は今週、新たな債券購入プログラムを発表した。FOMC（連
邦公開市場委員会）は、今月末で終了する「オペレーション・ツイスト」の後に、米長期
国債を毎月450億ドル購入する方針である。購入は期限を定めないオープンエンド型とな
り、現在行われている不動産担保証券の総額400億の毎月の買い入れに追加されることに
なる。それに加えて、FOMCは、金融政策のしかるべくスタンスを維持する期限の目安と
してマクロ経済指標を数値目標に導入した。これは、インフレ率が前年比2.5%を上回らな
い限り、失業率が6.5%（現在は7.7%）以下になるまで事実上のゼロ金利を続けることを
意味する。
•
量的緩和の拡大は、豪州経済に重大な影響をもたらしている。米国経済への追加流動性の
注入により、ドルは低水準を維持する見込みであり、そしてその結果豪ドルは高止まりす
る見通しである。豪ドル高は非鉱業部門の事業運営を圧迫し続けており、現に、一部の鉱
業の事業運営もコモディティ価格の下落により圧迫されている。実際、11月のNAB景気動
向調査からは、豪州の輸入競争に晒されている非鉱業部門の景況感指数は依然として弱く、
鉱業部門の景況感指数は大幅低下したことが明らかになった。今週、豪準備銀行の
Stevens総裁は、「余波」への取り組みをテーマに講演し、一部の通貨に負わされた圧力
は海外の各国中銀が実施する非伝統的な金融政策措置によりもたらされたものであると語
った。連邦準備理事会の発表を受けて、今後は豪準備銀行の豪ドルに対する自由放任主義
を巡る更なる議論が生じる可能性があろう。
•
ビクトリア州は、中間予算に関するアップデートを公表した最初の州であり、他の州は今
後数ヶ月にかけて発表する。ビクトリア州の財政に対する安定的見通しと穏やかな資本支
出プログラムにより、大手格付け機関2社は同州の格付けをAAA格付け（アウトルックは安
定的）に据え置く見込みである。
•
その他、イタリアのモンティ首相は引き続き金融市場を釘付けにしている。欧州株式相場
は、モンティ首相が辞意を表明し、今度の選挙に出馬しないことが判明したことを受けて
乱高下した。中国では、主要景気指数は、経済成長が上向きつつあることを示唆している。
11月の鉱工業生産は市場予想を上回ったが、輸出は予想を大幅に下回った（前年比2.9%、
予想は同9%）。
•
今週号のIn Focusでは、豪州の労働力の最新動向について産業別に細かく検討していく。
1
1
3
5
9
13
CONTRIBUTORS
Ivan Colhoun
Head of Australian
Economics & Property
Research
+61 2 9227 1780
[email protected]
Justin Fabo
Head of Australian
Economics, Corporate &
Commercial
+61 2 9227 1646
[email protected]
Andrew McManus
Economist
+61 2 9227 1742
[email protected]
Dylan Eades
Economist
+61 3 8655 9093
[email protected]
Savita Singh
Economic Analyst
+61 2 9227 1500
[email protected]
今週の予定
•
豪州では、Debelle豪準備銀行総裁補佐（金融市場担当）は月曜日にカンファレンスでパネ
ルディスカッションに参加する予定。豪準備銀行の11月理事会議事録は火曜日に、第四4
四半期に関する豪準備銀行の公報は木曜日に公報される。ニュージーランドについては、
市場の焦点は第3四半期GDPと12月のANZ企業景況感調査となろう。
•
欧州は、欧州連合首脳会議が昨夜閉幕し、ユーロ圏の貿易統計、建設および信頼感に関す
るデータが発表される。英国の第3四半期GDP確定値ならびにドイツのIFO景況指数も発表
を控えている。欧州中央銀行の総裁は、月曜日に欧州議会でブリーフィングを行う。
•
米国は、11月の資本財・耐久財受注と第3四半期GDPの確定値など重要指標の発表を控え
ている。また、個人所得および個人支出、複数の連銀の景況指数、多数の住宅関連データ
なども予定されている。連邦準備理事会委員が週内に多数講演する予定である。
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 2 of 21
IN FOCUS
鉱業の雇用者数は更に軟化したが、小売と製造業の雇用は安定の兆しが出現
Justin Fabo
Head of Economics,
Corporate & Commercial
+61 2 9227 1646
[email protected]
豪州統計局は昨日、11 月までの 3 ヶ月分の四半期労働力統計の詳細を発表した。重要なポイント
は以下の通り。
•
11 月までの 1 年間における雇用者数全体の伸び率は 2000 年までの年間伸び率平均の
半分程度にとどまり、雇用者数は 19 産業のうち 6 産業が減少した（図表 1 と 2）。
•
11 月までの 3 ヶ月の鉱業の雇用者数は更に減少し、これは資源セクターで見られた雇
用削減の状況証拠と一致している。
•
公共部門の雇用者数は 1 年間で急減し、特にニューサウス・ウェールズ州が目立つ。ま
た、雇用削減はここ数ヶ月クイーンズランド州で発生している。
•
直近 3 ヶ月において建設業の雇用者数は、近頃の急速な落ち込みを経て安定しているよ
うだ。
•
小売業と製造業の 1 年間の雇用者数は、低迷期間を経て増加に転じた。
•
農業の雇用者数は短期的に目覚しい回復を遂げた後、過去 6 ヶ月間伸びが急激に軟化し
たように見える。
•
サービス業の雇用者数の伸びは強弱感が一段と強まっており、企業のコスト削減の影響
が最も大きい職業で軟化しているように見える。
•
非自発的失業による「離職者」は増加し続けており、世界金融危機の水準に接近しつつ
ある。
•
自営業の不振とは対照的に、賃金・給与所得者数の伸びが際立った底堅さを見せている。
付録には、11 月までの 1 年間の主要州の産業別雇用者数の増減を示した。
図表 1：産業別の雇用者の増減、2012 年 11 月までの 1 年間
Public Administration and Safety
Construction
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Wholesale Trade
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Administrative and Support Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Other Services
Retail Trade
Information Media and Telecommunications
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Mining
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Manufacturing
Education and Training
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
TOTAL
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
'000 change in employment, year to November 2012
Source: ABS
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 3 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 2：豪州の産業別雇用者数–2012 年 11 月
Employment (sa)
% of total
000s
Employment
Employment
q/q change
y/y change
%
2.8
-11.2
-3.4
-17.9
-5.2
-2.5
-4.2
Mining
263.3
2.3
-8.4
-3.1
20.5
8.4
9.6
10.1
Manufacturing
972.2
8.4
9.2
1.0
21.1
2.2
-0.7
1.0
Utilities
147.6
1.3
-4.6
-3.0
-12.6
-8.0
5.1
-9.9
1,007.8
8.8
24.2
2.5
-21.4
-2.1
3.0
-1.5
423.3
3.7
1.9
0.4
-16.8
-3.8
0.4
-2.4
Retail trade
'000
y/y%
%
317.6
Wholesale trade
%
Aggregate
hours worked
Agriculture
Construction
'000
Average annual
growth since
2000
1,222.4
10.6
8.7
0.7
16.0
1.3
1.5
-1.6
Hospitality
783.2
6.8
4.5
0.6
19.8
2.5
2.0
4.1
Transport & postal
600.8
5.2
47.5
8.6
21.0
3.6
2.4
2.5
IT, media & telecomms
222.0
1.9
-15.4
-6.5
16.4
8.6
-0.1
11.8
Finance & insurance
420.2
3.7
-2.3
-0.5
-6.3
-1.5
1.7
-2.3
Rental & real estate
196.8
1.7
-6.5
-3.2
3.7
1.9
3.0
0.7
Professional services
904.0
7.9
-12.4
-1.4
41.8
4.8
3.6
4.4
Administrative services
399.2
3.5
2.8
0.7
3.3
0.8
2.0
-3.5
Public admin.
696.6
6.1
9.9
1.4
-39.3
-5.3
3.0
-6.3
Education
896.1
7.8
6.4
0.7
38.9
4.4
2.9
5.0
1,368.5
11.9
2.4
0.2
21.9
1.5
4.0
0.9
212.7
1.8
-7.1
-3.2
1.2
0.8
3.2
0.6
Health
Arts & recreation
Other services
458.0
4.0
8.3
1.8
11.6
2.6
0.8
2.3
All Industries
11,512.3
100.0
58.0
0.5
122.8
1.0
2.1
0.6
Source: ABS
増え続けている解雇数
解雇数の増加を示す状況証拠と一致して、非自発的「離職者」に区分された失業者数が 11 月ま
での 3 ヶ月間で増えている。フルタイムの仕事を探している人の割合については、「離職者」数
は、世界金融危機の発生期間中に経験した率に向けて上昇基調にあり、過去（1990 年代前半、
2000 年代前半）に起きた景気後退／減速期間の実績値と一致している（図表 3）。
•
ほとんどの州では離職者数の増加が見られ、いくつかの州において最近の公共部門の解
雇の増加トレンドは持続している（図表 4）。
•
非自発的離職者は、産業別で見ると建設、製造、小売、農業、職業別に見ると（特に）
肉体労働者および機械運転員の増加が目立つ（図表 5）。これらの産業および職業の非
自発的離職者の割合は雇用者全体の割合を上回っている。
•
職業別では、1 年間において雇用の低迷が際立ったのは、管理職、事務・管理担当者、
機械運転員である。対照的に、専門職の雇用者数は力強く伸びており、増加トレンドが
続いた（図表 6）。加えて、販売員の人員削減は減少している模様である。
図表 3：フルタイムの仕事の求職者
Share of total persons looking for full-time work
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
86
88
90
Job loser
Sources: ABS, ANZ
92
94
96
Job leaver
98
00
02
04
Former worker
06
08
10
Never worked
12
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 4 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 4：州別の非自発的離職者数
120
9.0
100
7.5
80
6.0
60
4.5
40
3.0
20
1.5
000s
10.5
0
0.0
86
89
NSW
92
95
Vic
98
01
04
07
10
QLD
13
SA
88
91
94
WA
97
00
Tas
03
06
ACT
09
12
NT
* フルタイム雇用の求職
Sources: ABS, ANZ
図表 5：産業および職業別の非自発的離職者数
30
By industry
25
Share of involuntary job losers
Share of total employment
Per cent
20
15
10
5
0
Sources: ABS, ANZ
By occupation
000s
140
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 5 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 6：職業別の雇用者数
4-quarter average, February 2000 = 100
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Managers
Technicians & trade workers
Clerical & admin workers
Machinery operators & drivers
Total
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Professionals
Community & personal service workers
Sales workers
Labourers
Sources: ABS, ANZ
産業別の雇用者数：一部のハイライト
鉱業の雇用者は更に減少
大幅に伸びた期間を経て、鉱業の雇用者数は過去 6 ヶ月間減少している。豪州統計局のデータは、
こうした減少がかなり顕著なのはニューサウス・ウェールズ州（特に炭鉱）、西オーストラリア
州、南オーストラリア州（図表 7 および 8）であることを示唆している。これは、西オーストラ
リア州を中心に資源セクターの求人広告の急減、そして鉱山会社がコスト削減を進めている状況
証拠と合致しており、鉱山会社はコモディティ価格安と根強い豪ドル高による不利な影響の一部
を吸収できている。実際、世界金融危機以来、鉱業の売上高に占める賃金総額の割合は目覚しく
伸びており、その結果、売上減によって現在、資源会社は労務費および他のコストへの関心を強
めている（図表 9）。
それにもかかわらず、石炭と金属鉱石鉱業の雇用者はほぼ横ばい、または少し減少基調を辿って
いるものの、その他鉱業の雇用者の伸びは、特に石油・ガスの採取、探査およびサポート・サー
ビスならびに「その他」鉱業を中心に、これまで強さを維持している。
120
18
100
15
80
12
60
9
40
6
20
3
0
0
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
NSW
Victoria
Sources: ABS, ANZ
Queensland
WA
SA (RHS)
Tasmania (RHS)
NT (RHS)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
図表 7：州別の鉱業の雇用者数
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 6 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 8：石炭および金属鉱石鉱業の雇用者数
Coal mining employment
105
Metal ore mining employment
60
90
Total
50
75
Total
40
60
30
45
Queensland
20
30
Western
Australia
10
15
Number of employed, seasonally adjusted
Number of employed, seasonally adjusted
70
NSW
0
0
00
01
03
04
06
07
09
10
12
00
02
03
05
06
08
09
11
12
Sources: ABS, ANZ
図表 9：売上高に占める賃金の割合（％）
22
Wages as % of nominal sales
19
16
13
10
7
01
02
03
04
Mining
05
06
07
08
Non-mining
09
10
11
12
Total
Source: ABS
これまでの ANZ のリサーチに言及した通り、鉱業投資ブームの明らかな受益者は、専門、科学お
よび技術サービス産業の雇用者である。サブセクターの建築およびエンジニアリングーサービス
の伸びはかなり強いが、最近安定してきたように見える（図表 10 と 11）。
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 7 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 10：豪州の専門サービスの雇用者の内訳
300
000s, seasonally adjusted
250
200
150
100
50
0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services
Management and Related Consulting Services
Other
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Legal and Accounting Services
Computer System Design and Related Services
Sources: ABS, ANZ
図表 11：州別の建築およびエンジリアリング・サービスの雇用者数
80
000s, seasonally adjusted
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
95
96
97
NSW
98
99
00
Victoria
01
02
03
04
05
Queensland
06
07
08
WA
09
10
11
12
Other
Sources: ABS, ANZ
公共部門は人員削減を継続
行政および公衆安全は、11 月までの 1 年間でいずれの産業よりも人員削減が多かった。これは、
州と連邦政府両方の財政緊縮を反映している。ニューサウス・ウェールズ州の行政の雇用者数は
大幅減となっており、クイーンズランド州の解雇発表は今や、当局の雇用者数の数値に現れてい
るようだ（図表 12）。雇用者数全体に占める割合としては、行政は、クイーンズランド州と南オ
ーストラリア州を含む一部の州で引き続きそれなりに増加傾向にあるようだ（図表 13）。
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 8 of 21
IN FOCUS
250
40
200
32
150
24
100
16
50
8
0
Employed persons (000s, sa)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
図表 12：州別の行政の雇用者数
0
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
NSW
ACT
Victoria
SA (RHS)
Queensland
Tasmania (RHS)
WA
NT (RHS)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
10
35
9
30
8
25
7
20
6
15
5
10
4
Share of state employment, trend
Share of state employment, trned
図表 13：州別の行政の雇用者数‐全体に占める割合
5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
NSW
Victoria
Queensland
SA
WA
Tasmania
ACT (RHS)
Sources: ABS, ANZ
医療および教育など公共部門の雇用者のその他の領域は、他よりも底堅さを見せている。近頃急
ペースだった公共医療サービスの雇用者数の伸びは鈍化したとはいえ、現在、雇用者数全体に占
める割合はほぼ 12%に達している（図表 14）。教育の雇用者数は、ここ 1 年で、特に学校にお
いて極めて力強く伸びている。
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 9 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 14：公共医療の雇用者数‐雇用者全体に占める割合
12.5
Share of total employment
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Health employment - % of total employment
Sources: ABS, ANZ
建設業の雇用者数は安定化の兆しを示している
建設業の雇用者数は、11 月までの 3 ヶ月で堅調に増えており、増加はほぼビクトリア州に集中
し、同州のこのところの大幅減の流れが反転した（図表 15）。これは、豪州の建設活動の収縮に
起因しており、鉱業関連建設の仕事が急増する中で建設業の雇用の大幅低迷の期間の後に生じて
いる。
建設業の雇用者数の増加については、11 月までの 3 ヶ月において自営業が増加したが、年末を
ベースにすると伸びは引き続き確実にマイナスである（図表 16）。対照的に、賃金・給与所得の
従業員は 11 月に前年比 2.1%と着実な伸びを見せた。
320
80
280
70
240
60
200
50
160
40
120
30
80
20
40
10
0
0
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
NSW
Victoria
Sources: ABS, ANZ
Queensland
WA
SA (RHS)
Tasmania (RHS)
NT (RHS)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
図表 15：州別の建設業の雇用者数
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 10 of 21
IN FOCUS
図表 16：州別の雇用者数の伸び
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
y/y % change
y/y % change
12
-12
-16
-16
03
04
05
Employers (trend)
06
07
08
09
Self-employed (trend)
10
Employees
11
12
Total employment
Sources: ABS, ANZ
製造業の雇用者数は引き続き豪ドル高でも予想外に底堅さを示している
製造業の雇用者数は 11 月までの 1 年間で増加したが、州の間でパフォーマンスに格差がある。
（図表 17）。大きな逆風が吹き荒れる中、最も注目すべき要因は輸出の競争力を弱める豪ドル高
であり、雇用者全体に占める製造業の割合は 1 年以上にわたりほぼ安定している（図表 18）。
450
32
400
28
350
24
300
20
250
16
200
12
150
8
100
4
0
50
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
NSW
Victoria
Sources: ABS, ANZ
Queensland
SA
WA
Tasmania (RHS)
NT (RHS)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
Employed persons (000s, sa)
図表 17：州別の製造業の雇用者数
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 11 of 21
IN FOCUS
20
80
15
75
10
70
5
65
0
Per cent of total employment
Per cent of total employment
図表 18：豪州の産業別の雇用者数の割合
60
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
Agriculture (LHS)
Manufacturing (LHS)
99
01
03
05
07
Construction (LHS)
Services (RHS)
09
11
Mining (LHS)
Source: ABS
小売業の雇用者は不確かながら安定化の兆しを示している
小売業の雇用者数は 11 月までの 1 年間で小幅に増加し、これは小売売上高の伸びの回復の遅行
効果を反映している（図表 19）。更に広く見ていくと、小売業の雇用者数のトレンドは、家計の
貯蓄率が描く道筋を追随している（図表 20）。先行きについては、貯蓄率の僅かな低下に現在の
水準近辺での豪ドルの安定という見方を取っている当社の予想を鑑みると、小売業の雇用者数は
雇用者全体にほぼ一致して伸びる見込みといえよう。
図表 19：小売業の雇用者数と小売売上高
10
8
y/y % change
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
00
01
02
03
04
05
Retail trade employment
Source: ABS
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Real retail sales, 12m forward
13
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 12 of 21
IN FOCUS
12.0
-5
11.6
0
11.2
5
10.8
10
10.4
15
20
10.0
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
Retail trade - share of total employment (LHS)
Source: ABS
01
03
05
07
09
11
Household saving ratio, inverted (RHS)
Per cent, inverted
Per cent of total employment
図表 20：雇用者全体に占める小売業の割合と家計の貯蓄率
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 13 of 21
IN FOCUS
付録–2012 年 11 月までの 1 年間の州別の雇用者数の増減
ニューサウス・ウェールズ州
ビクトリア州
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Construction
Construction
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Financial and Insurance Services
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Other Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Mining
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Public Administration and Safety
Mining
Wholesale Trade
Arts and Recreation Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Arts and Recreation Services
Administrative and Support Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Education and Training
Financial and Insurance Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Education and Training
Information Media and Telecommunications
TOTAL
TOTAL
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
'000 change in employment over the year to November
40
-20
クイーンズランド州
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
'000 change in employment over the year to November
25
南オーストラリア州
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Administrative and Support Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Public Administration and Safety
TOTAL
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Wholesale Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Education and Training
Arts and Recreation Services
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Arts and Recreation Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Construction
Construction
Information Media and Telecommunications
Wholesale Trade
Administrative and Support Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Accommodation and Food Services
Mining
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
TOTAL
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Other Services
Other Services
Mining
Health Care and Social Assistance
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'000 change in employment over the year to November
15
-15
西オーストラリア州
-10
-5
0
5
10
'000 change in employment over the year to November
タスマニア州
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Public Administration and Safety
TOTAL
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Arts and Recreation Services
Wholesale Trade
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Other Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Information Media and Telecommunications
Education and Training
Mining
Mining
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public Administration and Safety
Manufacturing
Financial and Insurance Services
Construction
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Other Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Education and Training
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Administrative and Support Services
Administrative and Support Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
TOTAL
Health Care and Social Assistance
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
'000 change in employment over the year to November
60
首都特別地域
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
'000 change in employment over the year to November
6
ノーザン・テリトリー
Accommodation and Food Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Construction
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Arts and Recreation Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Accommodation and Food Services
Administrative and Support Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Arts and Recreation Services
Mining
Manufacturing
Other Services
Administrative and Support Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Wholesale Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public Administration and Safety
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Mining
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Education and Training
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Public Administration and Safety
Other Services
Retail Trade
Education and Training
TOTAL
TOTAL
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
'000 change in employment over the year to August
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'000 change in employment over the year to August
5
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 14 of 21
DATA & EVENT CALENDAR
12月17日に始まる週
DATE
COUNTRY
17-Dec
NZ
Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence
AU
EU
US
DATA/EVENT
PERIOD
MARKET
ANZ
LAST
GMT
AEDT
Q4
--
104.0
103.0
21:00
08:00
Performance Services Index
Nov
RBA's Debelle Speaks on Banking Conference Panel in Sydney
--
55.0
57.4
Euro-Zone Labour Costs y/y
Q3
--
--
Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa
Oct
ECB's Draghi Briefs European Parliament in Brussels
--
--
21:30
08:30
00:00
11:00
1.6%
10:00
21:00
11.3b
10:00
21:00
14:30
01:30
Empire Manufacturing
Dec
0.0
--
-5.2
13:30
00:30
Net Long-term TIC Flows
Oct
--
--
$3.3b
14:00
01:00
--
$4.7b
Total Net TIC Flows
Oct
-Fed's Lacker (voter) Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Charlotte
US Treasury Auctions 2-Year Notes
CA
Tuesday
NZ
18-Dec
AU
14:00
01:00
18:00
05:00
--
--
14:00
01:00
Existing Home Sales m/m
Nov
--
--
-0.1%
ANZ Activity Outlook
Dec
--
--
31.6
00:00
11:00
ANZ Business Confidence
Global Dairy Trade Auction
Dec
--
--
26.4
00:00
11:00
Reserve Bank Board - December Minutes
--
--
00:30
11:30
08:30
19:30
EU
ECB's Nowotny Briefs Journalists in Vienna
UK
CPI m/m
Nov
--
--
0.5%
09:30
20:30
CPI y/y
Nov
--
--
2.7%
09:30
20:30
Current Account Balance
Q3
-$103b
--
-$117b
13:30
00:30
--
46.0
15:00
02:00
18:15
05:15
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
Dec
47.0
Fed's Fisher (non-voter) Speaks on the Economy in Gainesville, Texas
US Treasury Auctions 5-Year Notes
Wednesday
NZ
Current Account Balance
19-Dec
AU
JN
EU
GE
UK
US
CA
--
--
-1.8b
21:45
08:45
10:30
Q3
--
-4.1b
Westpac Leading Index m/m
Oct
--
--
0.7%
23:30
DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies m/m
Nov
--
--
-2.5%
00:00
11:00
Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance
Nov
--
--
-¥624b
23:50
10:50
Merchandise Trade Exports y/y
Nov
--
--
-6.5
23:50
10:50
Merchandise Trade Imports y/y
Nov
--
--
-1.5
23:50
10:50
Euro-Zone Current Account, nsa
Oct
--
--
3.5b
09:00
20:00
Construction Output sa m/m
Oct
--
--
-1.4%
10:00
21:00
Construction Output WDA y/y
Oct
--
--
-2.6%
10:00
21:00
IFO - Business Climate
Dec
--
--
101
09:00
20:00
IFO - Current Assessment
Dec
--
--
108
09:00
20:00
--
--
95.2
IFO - Expectations
Dec
Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes
09:00
20:00
09:30
20:30
MBA Mortgage Applications
Dec
--
--
6.2%
12:00
23:00
Building Permits
Nov
870k
--
868k
13:30
00:30
Building Permits m/m
Nov
0.2%
--
-2.7%
13:30
00:30
Housing Starts
Nov
873k
--
894k
13:30
00:30
Housing Starts m/m
US Treasury Auctions 7-Year Notes
Nov
-2.4%
--
3.6%
13:30
00:30
Wholesale Sales m/m
Oct
--
--
-1.4%
--
--
13:30
00:30
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 15 of 21
DATA & EVENT CALENDAR
DATE
COUNTRY
Thursday
NZ
GDP q/q
AU
20-Dec
JN
EU
DATA/EVENT
PERIOD
MARKET
ANZ
LAST
GMT
AEDT
Q3
--
0.3%
0.6%
21:45
08:45
GDP y/y
Q3
AOFM Auctions AUD 1b of 12 April 2013 Treasury Notes
--
2.3%
2.6%
21:45
08:45
RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions
Nov
Reserve Bank Board - Bulletin - December Quarter
--
--
275m
BOJ Target Rate
ECB Holds Governing Council Meeting
--
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
GE
UK
US
CA
Friday
NZ
21-Dec
GE
UK
US
--
0.1%
11:30
11:30
13:00
00:00
00:00
11:00
02:00
Dec A
--
--
-26.9
15:00
Producer Prices m/m
Nov
--
--
0.0%
07:00
18:00
Producer Prices y/y
Nov
--
--
1.5%
07:00
18:00
Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel m/m
Nov
--
--
-0.8%
09:30
20:30
Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel y/y
Nov
--
--
0.6%
09:30
20:30
Continuing Claims
Dec
--
--
3,205k
13:30
00:30
Core PCE q/q
Q3 T
--
--
1.1%
13:30
00:30
00:30
GDP Price Index
Q3 T
2.7%
--
2.7%
13:30
GDP q/q (Annualized)
Q3 T
2.8%
--
2.7%
13:30
00:30
Initial Jobless Claims
Dec
--
--
--
13:30
00:30
Personal Consumption
Q3 T
1.7%
--
1.4%
13:30
00:30
Existing Home Sales
Nov
4.9m
--
4.8m
15:00
02:00
Existing Home Sales m/m
Nov
1.3%
--
2.1%
15:00
02:00
02:00
House Price Index m/m
Oct
0.2%
--
0.2%
15:00
Leading Indicators
Nov
-0.2%
--
0.2%
15:00
02:00
Philadelphia Fed.
US Treasury Auctions 5-Year TIPS
Dec
-2.0
--
-10.7
15:00
02:00
--
--
Retail Sales Less Autos m/m
Oct
--
--
0.0%
13:30
00:30
Retail Sales m/m
Oct
--
--
0.1%
13:30
00:30
Net Migration sa
Nov
--
200
260
21:45
08:45
Credit Card Spending y/y
Nov
--
3.9%
-0.9%
02:00
13:00
Credit Card Spending sa m/m
Nov
--
0.5%
0.3%
02:00
13:00
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
Jan
--
--
5.9
07:00
18:00
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
Dec
--
--
-22.0
00:01
11:01
Current Account (BP)
Q3
--
--
-20.8b
09:30
20:30
GDP q/q
Q3 F
--
--
1.0%
09:30
20:30
GDP y/y
Q3 F
--
--
-0.1%
09:30
20:30
Total Business Investment q/q
Q3 F
--
--
3.7%
09:30
20:30
Total Business Investment y/y
Q3 F
--
--
4.5%
09:30
20:30
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Nov
--
--
-0.6
13:30
00:30
Durable Goods Orders
Nov
--
--
0.5%
13:30
00:30
Durables Ex Transportation
Nov
--
--
1.8%
13:30
00:30
PCE Core m/m
Nov
0.1%
--
0.1%
13:30
00:30
PCE Core y/y
Nov
1.6%
--
1.6%
13:30
00:30
PCE Deflator m/m
Nov
0.0%
--
0.1%
13:30
00:30
PCE Deflator y/y
Nov
--
--
1.7%
13:30
00:30
Personal Income
Nov
0.4%
--
0.0%
13:30
00:30
Personal Spending
Nov
0.4%
--
-0.2%
13:30
00:30
Dec F
75.0
--
74.5
14:55
01:55
Dec
-5.0
--
-6.0
16:00
03:00
00:30
University of Michigan Confidence
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity
CA
Dec
00:30
00:30
Bank Canada CPI Core m/m
Nov
--
--
0.3%
13:30
Bank Canada CPI Core y/y
Nov
--
--
1.3%
13:30
00:30
Consumer Price Index sa m/m
Nov
--
--
--
13:30
00:30
Consumer Price Index y/y
Nov
--
--
1.2%
13:30
00:30
Core CPI sa m/m
Nov
--
--
--
13:30
00:30
Gross Domestic Product m/m
Oct
--
--
0.0%
13:30
00:30
Gross Domestic Product y/y
Oct
--
--
1.0%
13:30
00:30
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 16 of 21
FIVE WEEKS AT A GLANCE
MONDAY
17 DECEMBER
NZ: Westpac consumer
confidence (Q4)
AU: RBA’s Debelle speaks
SI: NODEX (Nov)
EU: Trade (Oct), WPI (Q3),
ECB’s Draghi and
Constancio speak
US: Empire manuf. (Dec), TIC
Flows (Oct), Fed’s Lacker
and Stein speak
CA: Existing home sales
(Nov)
TUESDAY
18 DECEMBER
NZ: ANZ business
confidence (Dec), ANZ
activity index (Dec)
AU: RBA minutes
PH: Unemployment (Oct)
IN: RBI meeting
HK: Unemployment (Nov)
UK: PPI (Nov), CPI (Nov)
US: Current account (Q3),
NAHB housing index (Dec),
Fed’s Fisher speaks
WEDNESDAY
19 DECEMBER
NZ: Current account (Q3)
AU: BREE Australian Energy
Projections
JN: Trade (Nov)
MA: CPI (Nov)
PH: BoP (Nov)
TA: CBC meeting
HK: HKMA meeting
UK: BoE minutes
GE: IFO (Dec)
EU: Current account (Oct),
Construction (Oct)
US: Housing starts (Nov),
Building permits (Nov)
THURSDAY
20 DECEMBER
NZ: GDP (Q3)
AU: RBA FX transactions, RBA
Bulletin
JN: BoJ meeting
HK: CPI (Nov)
BR: Current account (Nov)
UK: Retail sales (Nov)
GE: PPI (Nov)
EU: Consumer confidence (Dec
A), ECB governing council
meeting
US: GDP (Q3 T), Philly Fed
(Dec), Existing home sales
(Nov), House prices (Oct)
CA: Retail sales (Oct)
FRIDAY
21 DECEMBER
NZ: Migration (Nov), Credit
card spending (Nov)
HK: BoP (Q3)
BR: Unemployment (Nov)
UK: GDP (Q3 F), Current
account (Q3)
GE: GfK consumer
confidence (Jan)
US: Durable & capital goods
orders, Personal income &
spending, PCE (Nov), Univ.
of Michigan confidence (Dec
F), Kansas Fed manuf.
(Nov)
CA: GDP (Oct), CPI (Nov)
24 DECEMBER
Public Holiday (JN)
TA: Unemployment (Nov),
Ind. prod. (Nov)
VN: CPI (Dec), Trade (Dec)
SI: CPI (Nov)
25 DECEMBER
Public Holiday (AU, NZ,
EN, GE, US, CA)
VN: Retail sales (Dec), Ind.
prod. (Dec), GDP (Q4)
(released 25-31)
26 DECEMBER
Public Holiday (AU, NZ,
GE, CA)
SI: Ind. prod. (Nov)
SK: Consumer confidence
(Dec)
US: Case Shiller (Oct),
Richmond Fed manuf. index
(Dec)
27 DECEMBER
JN: Housing starts (Nov),
Vehicle production (Nov)
HK: Trade (Nov)
CH: Industrial profits (Nov)
BR: Central Govt. Budget
(released 27-28)
US: Consumer confidence
(Dec), New home sales (Nov)
28 DECEMBER
JN: CPI (Nov), Ind. prod.
(Nov P), Retail trade (Nov) ,
Unemployment (Nov)
SK: Current account (Nov),
Ind. prod. (Nov)
PH: Trade (Oct)
TH: Current account (Nov),
Trade (Nov)
US: Chicago PMI (Dec),
Pending home sales (Nov)
31 DECEMBER
Public Holiday (JN)
AU: Credit (Nov)
CH: HSBC manuf. PMI (Dec)
IN: Current account (Q3)
SK: CPI (Dec)
US: Dallas Fed. manuf.
activity (Dec)
1 JANUARY
Public Holiday (AU, NZ,
CH, JN, EU, UK, US, CA)
CH: Manuf. PMI (Dec F)
TA: HSBC manuf. PMI (Dec)
SK: Trade (Dec)
2 JANUARY
Public Holiday (NZ, JN)
SK: HSBC manuf. PMI
(Dec)
TH: CPI (Dec)
BR: Manuf. PMI (Dec)
UK: Manuf. PMI (Dec)
GE: CPI (Dec)
EU: Manuf. PMI (Dec F)
US: Construction spending
(Nov), ISM (Dec), Markit
PMI final (Dec)
3 JANUARY
Public Holiday (JN)
CH: Non-manuf. PMI (Dec)
HK: Retail sales (Nov), PMI
(Dec) (released 3-7)
BR: Trade (Dec), Manuf. PPI
(Nov)
UK: PMI construction (Dec),
Mortgage Approvals (Nov)
GE: Unemployment (Dec)
US: ADP employment (Dec),
ISM NY (Dec), FOMC Minutes
7 JANUARY
TA: CPI (Dec), WPI (Dec),
Trade (Dec)
EU: PPI (Nov)
CA: Ivey PMI (Dec)
8 JANUARY
AU: Trade (Nov)
GE: Current account (Nov),
Factory orders (Nov)
EU: Consumer confidence
(Dec F), Retail sales (Nov),
Unemployment (Nov)
US: NFIB small business
optimism (Dec), Consumer
credit (Nov)
9 JANUARY
NZ: Building permits (Nov)
AU: Retail sales (Nov), Job
Vacancies, RBA chart
pack
CH: CPI, PPI, Ind. prod.,
Fixed assets, Retail sales
(Dec) (released 9-18)
TH: BoT meeting
MA: Trade (Nov)
UK: Trade (Nov)
GE: Ind. prod. (Nov)
CA: Housing starts (Dec)
10 JANUARY
NZ: Trade (Nov), ANZ
commodity price (Dec)
AU: Building approvals (Nov)
CH: Loans (Dec), Trade (Dec),
Money supply (Dec) (released
10-15)
IN: Trade (Dec) (released 1015)
MA: Ind. prod. (Nov)
UK: BoE meeting
EU: ECB meeting
US: Wholesale inventories
(Dec), Fed’s George speaks
CA: House prices (Nov),
Building permits (Nov)
4 JANUARY
SI: PMI (Dec)
CH: HSBC services PMI
(Dec)
BR: Ind. prod. (Nov), PMI
services (Dec)
UK: PMI services (Dec)
GE: PMI services (Dec F)
EU: PMIs (Dec F), Flash CPI
(Dec)
US: Nonfarm payrolls (Dec),
Factory orders (Dec), Nonmanuf. ISM (Dec), Fed’s
Bullard speaks
CA: Unemployment (Dec)
5 JANUARY
SI: GDP (Q4 A) (released 515)
11 JANUARY
SK: BoK Meeting
JN: Current account (Nov)
UK: Ind. prod. (Nov)
US: Trade (Nov)
CA: Trade (Nov)
12 JANUARY
IN: CPI (Dec)
13 JANUARY
CH: GDP (Q4) (released 1318)
14 JANUARY
NZ: Card spending (Dec),
REINZ house prices (Dec)
(released 14-17)
AU: Housing finance (Nov),
ANZ job ads (Dec)
IN: Ind. prod. (Nov)
EU: Ind. prod. (Nov)
US: Fed’s Lockhart speaks
15 JANUARY
NZ: Food prices (Dec)
SI: Retail Sales (Nov)
UK: PPI (Dec), CPI (Dec)
GE: CPI (Dec F), GDP (YoY),
Budget (2012)
EU: Trade (Nov)
US: Empire manuf. (Jan),
Retail Sales (Dec), PPI
(Dec), Business inventories
(Nov)
16 JANUARY
JN: Machine orders (Nov),
Domestic CGPI (Dec)
BR: COPOM meeting
EU: CPI (Dec)
US: CPI (Dec), TIC flows
(Nov), Ind. prod. (Dec),
Manuf. prod. (Dec),
Capacity util. (Dec), NAHB
Housing Index (Jan)
17 JANUARY
NZ: ANZ job ads (Dec), ANZ
consumer confidence (Jan)
AU: Labour force (Dec)
SI: NODEX (Dec)
HK: Unemployment (Dec)
EU: Construction (Nov)
US: Building permits (Dec),
Housing starts (Dec), Philly
Fed (Jan)
18 JANUARY
NZ: CPI (Q4)
JN: Ind. prod. (Nov F)
HK: HKMA meeting
UK: Retail sales (Dec)
US: Univ. of Michigan
consumer confidence (Jan)
20 JANUARY
GE: IFO (Jan) (released 2024)
EU: PMIs (Jan A) (released
20-23)
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 17 of 21
CENTRAL BANK RELEASES FOR 2013
CENTRAL BANK RELEASES FOR 2013
JANUARY 2013
rd
FEBRUARY 2013
MARCH 2013
5 : RBA
7th: ECB, BoE
8th: RBA SNP
13th: BoJ
18th: HKMA
19th: BoJ Minutes, RBA
Minutes
20th: BoT, BoE Minutes
5 : RBA
6th: COPOM
7th: ECB, BoE, BoJ
8th: BoC
12th: BoJ Minutes
14th: RBNZ, SNB
19th: RBA Minutes, HKMA
20th: BoE Minutes
21st: RBA Bulletin, FOMC,
CBC
2nd: RBA
3rd: BoT
4th: ECB, BoE, BoJ
9th: BoJ Minutes
16th: RBA Minutes
17th: BoC, COPOM, BoE
Minutes
20th: HKMA
24th: RBNZ
26th: BoJ
MAY 2013
JUNE 2013
JULY 2013
AUGUST 2013
2 : ECB, BoJ Minutes, FOMC
7th: RBA
9th: BoE
10th: RBA SNP
18th: HKMA
21st: RBA Minutes
22nd: BoJ, BoE Minutes
27th: BoJ Minutes
29th: BoT, COPOM
4 : RBA
5th: BoC
6th: ECB, BoE
11th: BoJ
13th: RBNZ
14th: BoJ Minutes
18th: RBA Minutes, HKMA
19th: BoE Minutes
20th: RBA Bulletin, FOMC,
SNB, CBC
2 RBA
4th: ECB, BoE
10th: BoT, COPOM
16th: RBA Minutes
17th: BoC, BoE Minutes
20th: HKMA
25th: RBNZ
1st: ECB, BoE, FOMC
6th: RBA
9th: RBA SNP
14th: BoE Minutes
17th: HKMA
20th: RBA Minutes
21st: BoT
28th: COPOM
SEPTEMBER 2013
OCTOBER 2013
NOVEMBER 2013
DECEMBER 2013
rd
3 : RBA
5th: ECB, BoE, BoC
12th: RBNZ
17th: RBA Minutes
18th: BoE Minutes
19th: RBA Bulletin, FOMC,
SNB, HKMA
23rd: CBC
th
th
APRIL 2013
3 : FOMC Minutes (Dec)
9th: BoT
10th: ECB, BoE
11th: BoK
16th: COPOM
17th: BoC
18th: HKMA
22nd: BoJ
23rd: BoE Minutes
31st: RBNZ, FOMC
nd
th
st
1 : RBA
2nd: ECB
9th: COPOM
10th: BoE
15th: RBA Minutes
16th: BoT
19th: HKMA
23rd: BoC, BoE Minutes
31st: RBNZ, FOMC
nd:
th
5 : RBA
7th: ECB, BoE
8th: RBA, SNP
19th: RBA Minutes, HKMA
20th: BoE Minutes
27th: BoT, COPOM
3rd: RBA
4th: BoC
5th: ECB, BoE
12th: RBNZ, SNB
17th: RBA Minutes
18th: BoE Minutes
19th: RBA Bulletin, FOMC,
HKMA
*注：記入されているのは、議事録およびその他と特定されている以外は、各中央銀行の金利政策発表日である。
日時はあくまでも予定であり、各中央銀行による変更もあり得る。
略称一覧：BI：インドネシア中央銀行、BNM：マレーシア中央銀行（マレーシア国立銀行）、Boc：カナダ中央銀行、BoE：英中央銀行、
Bok：韓国銀行、BoJ：日本銀行、BoT：タイ銀行、BSP：フィリピン中央銀行、CBC：中華民国中央銀行、COPOM：ブラジル中央銀行（金
融政策委員会）、ECB：欧州中央銀行、FOMC：連邦市場公開委員会、HKMA：香港金融管理局、豪準備銀行：豪準備銀行、RBI：インド準備
銀行、RBNZ：ニュージーランド準備銀行、SNB：スイス国立銀行
Sources: Central bank websites
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 18 of 21
FORECASTS
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2011
2012F
2013F
2014F
Private final demand
5.5
5.7
4.3
2.9
Household consumption
3.3
3.8
2.7
3.1
Dwelling investment
1.3
-5.3
4.7
6.1
Business investment
17.0
15.8
9.1
1.6
Public demand
0.1
2.2
-0.3
0.5
Domestic final demand
4.2
4.9
3.2
2.4
Inventories (contribution to GDP growth)
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Gross National Expenditure (GNE)
4.6
4.8
3.1
2.4
Exports
-1.3
5.1
5.3
5.9
Imports
11.5
6.6
6.3
3.3
Net Exports (contribution to GDP growth)
-2.7
-0.5
-0.4
0.4
2.1
3.7
2.8
2.8
3.3
1.8
3.0
2.4
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.5
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.5
Employment (annual % change)
1.7
0.5
0.9
1.5
Unemployment rate (annual average %)
5.1
5.3
5.7
5.7
Economic activity (annual % change)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Prices and wages (annual % change)
Inflation*: Headline CPI
Underlying (RBA core)^
Wages
Labour market
External sector
Terms of trade (annual % change)
13.6
-8.6
-4.9
0.1
Current account balance: AUD bn
-32.5
-56.2
-78.6
-78.6
% of GDP
-2.3
-3.8
-5.1
-4.9
* 炭素税を含む。豪準備銀行の加重中央値および刈り込み平均の平均を使用した統計的測定手段。
AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATES CURRENT
DEC 12F
MAR 13F
JUN 13F
SEP 13F
DEC 13F MAR 14F
JUN 14F
SEP 14F
RBA cash rate
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
90 day bill
3.17
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15
3 year bond
2.81
2.55
2.30
2.50
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.40
3.80
10 year bond
3.37
3.15
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.10
4.50
3s10s yield curve
0.56
0.60
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
3 year swap
3.11
3.15
2.90
3.10
3.20
3.40
3.50
3.80
4.20
10 year swap
3.96
3.95
3.70
3.90
4.00
4.20
4.30
4.60
5.00
INTERNATIONAL INTEREST
RATES
DEC 13F MAR 14F
JUN 14F
SEP 14F
CURRENT
DEC 12F
MAR 13F
JUN 13F
SEP 13F
RBNZ cash rate
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
NZ 90 day bill
2.66
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
3.17
3.25
3.67
US Fed funds note
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
US 2 year note
0.24
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1.40
US 10 year note
1.59
1.90
1.90
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
3.00
3.90
Japan call rate
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
ECB refinance rate
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
UK repo rate
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 19 of 21
FORECASTS
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES CURRENT
DEC 12F
MAR 13F
JUN 13F
SEP 13F
DEC 13F MAR 14F
JUN 14F
SEP 14F
Australian exchange rates
AUD/USD
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.03
1.01
0.99
NZD/USD
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.83
0.81
0.80
AUD/¥
88.4
81.9
81.9
81.9
81.9
81.9
80.3
78.7
79.1
AUD/€
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.80
0.79
0.78
0.78
AUD/₤
0.65
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.65
0.65
0.64
0.64
AUD/NZD
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.24
1.24
AUD/CAD
1.04
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.13
1.11
1.09
AUD/CHF
0.97
1.05
1.07
1.09
1.11
1.13
1.11
1.09
1.07
AUD/CNY
6.58
6.62
6.56
6.51
6.46
6.41
6.23
6.05
5.88
AUD trade-weighted index
78.0
77.2
77.0
76.7
76.4
76.1
74.4
72.8
71.6
83.9
78.0
78.0
78.0
78.0
78.0
78.0
78.0
80.0
International cross rates
USD/¥
€/USD
€/¥
1.31
1.29
1.29
1.29
1.30
1.31
1.31
1.29
1.27
109.8
100.6
100.6
100.6
101.4
102.2
102.2
100.6
101.6
₤/USD
1.61
1.63
1.63
1.63
1.63
1.61
1.59
1.57
1.55
€/₤
0.81
0.79
0.79
0.79
0.80
0.81
0.82
0.82
0.82
USD/CAD
0.98
1.03
1.05
1.07
1.09
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
USD/CHF
0.92
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
USD index
79.9
80.2
80.4
80.6
80.5
80.4
80.5
81.4
82.5
6.24
6.30
6.25
6.20
6.15
6.10
6.05
6.00
5.95
Asia exchange rates
USD/CNY
USD/HKD
7.75
7.80
7.80
7.80
7.80
7.80
7.80
7.80
7.80
USD/IDR
9694
9750
9750
9700
9600
9500
9400
9300
9200
USD/INR
54.5
52.0
51.5
51.0
50.5
50.0
49.5
49.0
48.5
USD/KRW
1074
1080
1070
1060
1050
1040
1030
1020
1010
USD/MYR
3.06
3.06
3.05
3.04
3.03
3.02
3.01
3.00
2.99
USD/PHP
41.1
40.8
40.5
40.4
40.3
40.2
40.1
40.0
40.0
USD/SGD
1.22
1.21
1.21
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.19
1.18
1.18
USD/THB
30.65
31.50
31.40
31.20
31.00
30.80
30.70
30.60
30.50
USD/TWD
29.05
29.50
29.40
29.40
29.30
29.20
29.10
29.00
28.90
USD/VND
20850
21200
21300
21500
21500
21500
21500
21500
21500
PGK/USD
0.484
0.536
0.547
0.563
0.563
0.563
0.563
0.563
0.563
FJD/USD
0.569
0.589
0.591
0.591
0.591
0.591
0.591
0.591
0.591
Pacific exchange rates
Australian Economics Weekly / 14 December 2012 / 20 of 21
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ーストラリア・ニュージーランド銀行グループ社（ABN 11 005 357 522) （「ANZ」）がお客様の国／地域において発行および配布するものです。受
領者は、いかなる目的であれ、本文書を複製、配布または公表することはできません。本文書の作成に当たり、いかなる人の目的、財務状態またはニーズ
も考慮していません。本文書のいかなる記述も、商品、証券もしくは投資の販売を申し出、もしくは購入の申し込みを勧誘すること、いかなる種類であれ、
何らかの取引を行い、または法的行為を締結することを意図していません。前記にもかかわらず、本文書が受領または入手された法域において、本文書に
記載のサービスや商品の販売を申し出たとみなされる場合において、かかるサービスや商品が現地の法律または規則に抵触する時は、かかるサービスや商
品は、かかる法域の居住者向けであることを意図せず、かかる居住者には提供されません。かかる現地の法律、規制その他の制限は、常に、現地の裁判所
の非専属管轄権に基づき適用されます。投資判断を行う前に、受領者は、ご自身の状況を踏まえて、独立した財務、法務、税務その他関連する助言を求め
るとよいでしょう。
本文書に記載された見解および推奨は、執筆者個人のものです。これらの見解および推奨は、執筆者が知り得た情報および執筆者が信頼できると判断した
情報源から得た情報に基づいていますが、重要な部分において主観的な判断や分析を含む場合があります。特段の記載のない限り、これらの見解および推
奨は、本文書の作成日時点のものであり、予告なく変更されることがあります。また、全ての価格情報は、一例を示しているにすぎません。見解や推奨の
中には、見積りや予想、その他の予測に基づいているものもあり、合理的に予期することができない重大な不確実性と偶発性を伴います。従って、かかる
見解や推奨は、常に実現するとは限らず、また誤りであることが後に明らかになる場合もあります。本文書で示される過去の実績値が、将来において再現
されるとは限りません。過去の投資と同程度の利益や損失が実現されるといった表明や、大幅な損失を避けられるといった表明は行われません。更に、本
文書には、「将来の予測に関する記載」が含まれています。実際の事態や結果、または実績は、かかる将来の予測に関する記載で想定または予想されたも
のとは大きく異なる場合があります。あらゆる投資には危険が伴い、利益が出る場合もあれば損失が出る場合もあります。外国為替レートにより、本文書
に記載の商品やサービスの価値、価格または収益に悪影響がおよぶ可能性もあります。本文書に記載の商品やサービスは、全ての投資家に適しているもの
でもありませんし、これらの商品やサービスの取引には危険を伴うものと考えられます。ANZ、ANZ の関連会社および関係会社ならびにこれらの会社の
執行役、従業員、請負業者および代理人（執筆者を含みます）（「関係当事者」）は、本文書に記載された見解や推奨の正確性、完全性または現在性に関
し、いかなる表明も行いません。ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者は、本文書に記載された情報の正確性、完全性または現在性に影響を与える恐れのある事
項を後に知った場合でも、かかる事項をお客様に通知する責任を負いません。
ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者は、本文書に記載の商品もしくはサービスの実績または関連する投資に対する収益を保証しません（法律により保証が要求
される場合を除きます。この場合、法律で要求される範囲に限り保証が行われます）。また、ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者は、不法行為（過失を含みま
す）、契約、衡平法により、またはその他本文書に起因もしくは関連して、直接的または間接的に生じる、あらゆる責任を明示的に排除し、かつあらゆる
損失、損害、請求、負担、訴訟手続き、支出または諸費用（「負担」）について責任を負いません。
本文書が電子メールなどの電子的な送信手段により配布される場合、情報が傍受、破損、滅失、破壊され、遅延してもしくは不完全な形で到着し、または
情報にウイルスが含まれる可能性があります。従って、かかる送信が安全なことまたは誤りがないことは保証できません。ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者
は、本文書を電子的に送信した結果生じる、いかなる責任も負いません。
利害の開示
ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者は、次の通り、本文書に記載の商品およびサービスについて利害関係を有している場合があります。
• ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者は、本文書に記載の商品またはサービスを取引するために顧客から手数料を受領する場合があり、かつ社員および取引の
紹介者は、当該手数料の分配を受け、または総売上高に応じたボーナスを受領する場合があります。
• ANZ および ANZ の関係当事者またはその顧客は、本文書に記載の商品またはサービスについて、利害関係を有しまたは買い持ちもしくは売り持ちポジ
ションを取る場合があります。また、随時、本人または代理人としてこれらの購入または販売を行う場合があります。
• ANZ および ANZ の関係会社は、本文書に記載の商品のマーケットメーカーを務める場合があります。
ANZ は、ANZ の 1 つ以上の営業地域内に存在する情報が他の営業地域へ流出することを防ぐため、情報バリアやその他の措置を利用する場合があります。
上記の開示に関する詳細は、ご要望に応じて、お客様の ANZ 担当者から入手できます。