Formulation of integrated landslide-flood hazard maps for target areas

Closing Ceremony
of the Croatian-Japanese Joint Research Project
Activity Results of the Croatian-Japanese Project on
“Risk Identification and Land-Use Planning for Disaster
Mitigation of Landslides and Floods in Croatia”
Research Institute for Natural Hazards
and Disaster Recovery,
Niigata University
Hideaki MARUI
Application in other areas in Croatia and/or in neighboring countries is
envisaged
Project Purpose
Development of the methods of formulating land-use guidelines for
mitigation of landslide-flood disasters
Scope of the Project
Prepare manuals of the methods
Dissemination of research results
Capacity Development
Component ③
Formulation of integrated landslide-flood hazard maps for the target areas
Application of the methods to study areas/model areas
Component ①
Development of landslide risk assessment methods,
and landslide early warning system
Component ②
Development of flash flood/debris flow simulation
models and early warning system
Conceptual Diagram of the Project
Project Administration
Japanese Embassy
JST
Responsible Authority
Ministry of Science,
Education and Sports
Joint Coordinating Committee (JCC)
Implementing Institutions
Niigata University
ICL
DPRI, Kyoto University
JICA
Project Team
Chief Advisor
Project Director
Project Manager
Japanese Project Coordinator Croatian Project Coordinator
Japanese Researchers Croatian Researchers
Working Group (WGs)
LEGEND
Participation
Participation
as observer
WG3: Integration
Hazard Mapping/Land-use
WG1: Landslide
WG2: Flood/Debris Flow
Implementing Institutions
University of Split
University of Zagreb
University of Rijeka
Croatian Water
Geological Survey
Cooperating Authorities
Current Status
of the
Joint Project
JST Higher objective
Application of research results and land-use guidelines for
Adriatic and Balkan countries
Clarification of problems and methods to attain the higher objective
JST Objective of the project
Formulation of land-use guidelines for mitigation of landslide and flood
disasters in Croatia on the basis of scientific research results
Development of early warning system and
Its implementation for the target areas
Development of method
for formulation of
land-use guidelines
100%
Formulation of integrated landslide-flood hazard maps for the target areas
Development of method
for risk identification
Development of formulation method
for integrated landslide-flood hazard map
50%
Analysis of
Flood
Discharge
Using
Available
Meteorological
Data
Installation
Development
of Monitoring of Flash- flood/
System on
Debris flow
Flood Discharge Simulation
and
Methods
Calibration
Development Evaluation
of Danger
of Dynamic
Degree
Ring Shear
Apparatus by Landslide
Dynamics
Formation
Evaluation
Installation of
of Digital
of Danger
Comprehensive Elevation
Degree
Map
by Analytical Monitoring
System
by Image
Hierarchy
Analysis
Process
(AHP)
0%
Flood Research (WG2)
Landslide Research (WG1)
Integration Research (WG3)
Integrated Landslide-Flood Hazard Map
①-1 Image analysis/Formulation of DEM
Evaluation of endangered areas by landslide dynamics
Formulation of DEM using satellite images, laser scanning, aerial photos etc.
- Numerical simulation for evaluation of endangered areas
－
Achievement
Quotient
２００９（ＦＳ）
２０１０（Method selection）
Image Analysis/ＤＥＭ
２０１１（Analysis） ２０１２（Completion）
Partial achievement
Evaluation of endangered areas
○ Image processing/Formulation of DEM
（for Zagreb area, Rijeka area and Split area)
○ Numerical simulation of landslide and debris flow
based on soil mechanics and hydraulics
Image analysis/DEM
【Left】Image processing
using ALOS-satellite image
【Right】 Formulation of
Contour map using LPS
（with 5m pitch）
Kostanjek landslide area
２０１3（Application）
Accomplished
Accomplished
Integrated Landslide-Flood Hazard Map
①-2 Image analysis/
Formulation of DEM
Situation of 3D Laser Scanning
at Duće near Split
Target slops
Results of 3D Laser Scanning
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
②-1 Comprehensive monitoring system (Grohovo landslide)
- Installation of monitoring system in the Grohovo landslide area
- Development of the early warning system
- Collection of basic data to clarify the mechanism of the landslide
Achievement
Quotient
２００９（ＦＳ・Items）
２０１０（Planning）
２０１１（Installation）
２０１２（Analysis）
Installation of system
○ Comprehensive monitoring
system with combination of
extensometers, GPS，total
station
○ Automated real time
monitoring using Wi-Fi
communication system
monitoring
Mmmp
２０１3（Analysis)
accomplished
Analysis of mechanism
Observation
Center
Relay
Station
Total Station
Landslide area
Schematic diagram of the comprehensive
landslide monitoring system
②-2 Comprehensive
monitoring system
Total Station：１
Prisms for TS:23
Extensometers：11
GPS：10
GPS and
Solar panel
TS
GPS
Total Station
(Top of the
opposite
GPS reference point
（New building of Rijeka
University）
Extensometer
Measurements（1unit:mm）
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
②-3 Monitoring by extensometers
Concept of monitoring
by extensometers
te
Ex
n
Ext e
t er
so me
ns
om
e
et
te
Ex
n
m
so
et e
rC
St abl e
Rock
r B
2
A
1
1 2 : Landslide Blocks
St abl e
Ground
Location of the Total Station on the
top of opposite slope (All data are
transferred to Rijeka University)
【Behavior of extensometers】
1)Movement of Block➀:
Extensometer Ａ shows compression
Extensometer Ｂ shows extension
Extensometer C shows no change
2) Movement of Block ➀＋➁ at the same time:
Extensometer Ａ shows compression
Extensometer B shows no change
Extensometer Ｃ shows extension
Long span extensometer
on the top of main scarp
Line of extensometers
at the center of
Grohovo landslide
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
②-4 Results of monitoring
by extensometers
at Grohovo landslide
25 Nov.2011-10 Feb.2012
1. Left up figure shows accumulation
value of movements. Point （P11） is
treated as a stable point. Compression
is indicated by (+), extension by (-).
2. Lower convex shapes shows Block 1
and 2. Distance from basement line
shows amount of movement.
3. Left down figure shows the estimated
two landslide blocks on the target
slope.
4. Upper Block is colored by red. Middle
Block is colored by green.
5. It is necessary to check the margin of
the upper Block.
- Margin can be at Point P0 at the top
of the slope.
- Margin can be over the ridge.
6. Two additional extensometers will be
installed to check the location of the
margin.
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
②-5 Monitoring system(Kostanjek landslide)
- Installation of monitoring system and arrangement of early warning system
in the large scale landslide behind Zagreb city area
Achievement
Quotient
２００９（ＦＳ・Items）
２０１０（Planning）
２０１１（ Installation）
２０１２（Monitoring）
２０１３（application)
Installation of monitoring system/on going
○ Combination with extensometers, GPS, accelerometers
Displacement measured in the
tunnel in Kostanjek landslide area
using extensometer
To add additional extensometers
Installation of extensometers in
Kostanjek landslide area
(Zagreb)
With dense collaboration with
the Office of Emergency
Management (OEM) of Zagreb
City
Early Warning System
Length:1.3km
Width:1.0km
Depth:90m
Necessity of Emergency Operation
Overview of Kostanjek Landslide In Zagreb City
All GPS-Receivers show large displacement
Why the current state of the Kostanjek
landslide is so dangerous?
168cm
1st stage 1963-1975
Increase velocity
V=14cm/year
Total displacement
=14cm ･ 12yers
=168cm
2nd stage 1975-1991
Decrease velocity
V=13cm/year
Total displacement
≒13cm ･ 16yers
≒208cm
376cm
4th stage 2012(Oct)-2013(March)
Increase velocity
V≒20cm/year
Total displacement
≒8cm
3rd stage 1991-2012 ??
Sometime occur ?
V≒6cm/year
Total displacement
≒500cm-168cm-208cm
≒124cm
500cm
Stop Excavation
Because:
This type of landslide can suddenly change the behavior
and the sliding velocity by normal rainfall events.
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
③-1 Evaluation of endangered areas using “Analytical Hierarchy
Process（AHP）”
- Modification of AHP-Method appropriate to the natural conditions of Croatia
Achievement
Quotient
２００９（ＦＳ・Data ）
２０１０（Modification） ２０１１（Application）
Modification of ＡＨＰ-Method
２０１２（Application）
２０１３（Application）
Completion
Evaluation of danger degree
○Interpretation of landslide topography
○Evaluation of danger degree of individual slopes using modified criteria
Modified criteria for AHP-Method in consideration
of the geomorphological and geological conditions
Evaluation of danger degree
using AHP-Method（Grohovo）
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
③-2 Evaluation of danger
degree by “Analytical
HierarchyProcess (AHP）
omis１
16
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
④-1 Evaluation of danger degree by landslide dynamics
Estimation of travel distance of sliding soil mass
Numerical simulation on travel distance of sliding soil mass was carried out concerning Grohovo
landslide.
It is necessary to get shear strength parameters of sliding soil mass and also sediment material on
river bed of Recina River.
Shear strength parameters of weathered flysh material is already tested.
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
④-2 Landslide dynamics
Numerical simulation of travel distance of sliding
soil mass of Grohovo landslide
（caused by increase of pore water pressure)
Occurrence of landslide
at the top of slope
Overburden pressure
to the upper block
Lower block is forced to
reach to the opposite slope
Sliding soil mass blocks
the river channel
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑤-1 Development of dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus
- Clarification of landslide mechanism
- Estimation of velocity and travel distance of sliding mass
Achievement
Quotient
２００９（ＦＳ）
２０１０（Design）
２０１１（Completion) ２０１２（Purchase)
２０１３（Testing)
Completion
○Measurement of shear strength of soil and pore water pressure
○Volume of soil specimen ca.300 cm3（ID= 100 mm, OD= 140 mm ）
○Loading corresponding to seismic wave form
1000
1200
3000
Effective Stress Path
Total Stress Path
400
τss = 210 kPa
Φa =
13.8 °
200
0
900
Shear Displacement (mm)
LwP
SB
Φm =
25.3 °
600
Stresses & Pressure (kPa)
LP
800
Shear Stress (kPa)
VLC
Normal Stress
Control Signal
600
Shear Resistance
300
Pore Pressure
0
Shear Displacement
0
200
400
600
Normal Stress (kPa)
800
1000
-300
0
0
40
80
Time (sec)
120
160
（frequency:0.1Hz）
Test results using soil sample from Kostanjek landslide area
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑤-2 Purchase of dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus
2010：Development of prototype undrained dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus
2011：Production of undrained dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus for practical use
2012：Purchase of the apparatus for practical use to Rijeka University
2011-2012：Invitation of young researchers for training of test procedures
（Training results：「Manual for test procedures using dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus）
Related publications：６ papers
Online publication:
K. Sassa, B. He, T. Miyagi, M. Ostric (クロアチア） et al (2012): A hypothesis of the Senoumi submarine
megaslide in Suruga Bay in Japan—based on the undrained dynamic-loading ring shear tests and
computer simulation．DOI 10.1007/s10346-012-0356-2, Landslides (impact factor:2.216).
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑤-3 Tests for earthquakeinduced landsldies
(Kostanjek)
Using soil samples from model sites
(Grohovo)
(Left up) Test results using soil sample (Marl) from
kostanjek landslide under undrained condition.
(Right up) test results using soil sample (Flysh) from
Grohovo landslide under undrained condition.
Soil sample of Kostanjek landslide shows lower
friction angle of 13.8 degree.
Soil sample of Grohovo landslide shows higher
friction angle of 20.4 degree.
(Left bottom) Structure of the ring shear apparatus
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑥-1 Devlopment of numerical
simulation method for
flashflood/debris flow
Estimation of endangered area
ArcGISのラスターデータ上で土石流の流れを有限
差分法により計算
崩壊地から、リエカ市まで、
約6㎞距離を約16分で到達
(時速約6m/s)
土砂・洪水災害統合ハザードマップ構築技術開発
⑥-2 Model experiment for flashflood/debris flow smiluation
Experiment on occurrence, flow and deposition of debris flow
石灰岩及びフリッシュ地域を想定した土石流発生･流動･堆積機構
解明のための急勾配水路・土石流氾濫試験台
Water tank
control gate
Video
camera
Cameras
(Kuraves)
Deposition
area
High speed
video camera
5m waterway
23
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑦-1 Flash-flood monitoring system
-Clarification of the mechanism of flash-flood
-Installation of monitoring in model watersheds
-Installation of early warning system
Measurement of rainfall amount:
using “Rader
Achievement
Quotient
２００９（ＦＳ・Items）
２０１０（Site selection）
Installation of monitoring system
２０１１（Installation）
+Rain gauge”
２０１２（Monitoring)
completion
２０１３（Monitoring）
Monitoring
Selection of radar and rain gauge
○Combined model with “Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model” and “Multi Phase
Flow Model” based on the measurement results in target watersheds
○Monitoring system using rain gauges, discharge gauge and rader
Model watershed
Weather
station
Discharge gauge
Schematic diagram of monitoring system
Target watersheds:
【Mountainous torrents】Surroundings of Rijeka
Mošćenička Draga（weather station 2・
discharge gauge 3）
Dubračina river（weather station ・
discharge gauge 3）
【Karst area】Surroundigs of Split
Sutina river（weather station 2・
discharge gauge 3）
⑦-2 Installation of flashflood monitoring system LOCATION
Available daily data from 1995
to 2005 (precipitation,
temperature and relative
humidity). Source: National
Meteorological and
Hydrological Service. The
station is still running and
operational.
5 km from the study site
at the altitude of 301 m a.s.l.
Equipments for flood monitoring ( SUTINA-KARAKAŠICA Catchment)
⑦-3 Installation of flashflood monitoring system
Dubračina river catchment area
Location of measurement
Mošćenička Draga catchment area
Stream gauge 1
Location of
equipments
Measurement results of discharge
Flood at Mošćenička Draga （1960）
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑧-1 Analysis of flood discharge using meteorological data
Grid-Cell ith-1
Distributed-parameter runoff model
Water Inflow
Rainfall-Runoff Model
+ Surface Soil Erosion Model
Sediment Inflow
Grid-Cell ith
Rainfall
Overland Flow
Soil Erosion by
Raindrop
Sediment Transport
Capacity of Flow
Deposition
Net Erosion
Water outflow
Overland
Flow Erosion
Sediment Outflow
Apip, Sayama, T., Tachikawa., Y. and Takara,
K. (2010): Spatial lumping of a distributed
rainfall-sediment-runoff model and effective
lumping scale. Hydrological Processes,
(Accepted).
River
Channel
Grid-Cell ith+1
Total Sediment Transport
- Bed load
- Suspended + wash load
27
Integrated landslide-flood hazard map
⑧-2 Analysis of flood discharge using meteorological data
1.8
0.035
Runoff analysis using distributed-parameter
model
1.6
0.03
1.4
0.025
0.02
1
0.8
0.015
Q (mm/min)
P (mm/min)
1.2
P mm/min
Q mm/min
0.6
0.01
0.4
0.005
0.2
0
0
5/30 19:12 5/30 21:36 5/31 0:00
5/31 2:24
5/31 4:48
5/31 7:12
5/31 9:36 5/31 12:00
Date (Time)
River channel nets for
distributed-parameter
Runoff model
Rainfall hyetograph and discharge hydrograph
Measured in model site (Salt Creek)
Salt Creek watershed
indicated by DEM
Runoff amount
基盤露出面だけに降雨を
与えた流出計算結果
28
Capacity building and technology transfer
⑨-1 Capacity building（Training course in Japan）
- Young researchers are invited for “Capacity building”
- Various training course are organized for study of new
knowledge and technology
Achievement
Quotient
２００９
２０１０
２０１２
２０１１
completion
○Interpretation of aerial photos, AHP Analysis, Soil tests,
Numerical simulation for landslide, debris flows & floods
○Field works in landslide areas and torrent watersheds
Training results for 2010 (4 persons)
氏名
Laszlo Podolski
Martin Krkač
Goran Vlastelica
Sanja Dugonjić
所属
クロアチア地質調査所・研究員
ザグレブ大学・助教
スプリト大学・助教
リエカ大学・助教
期間
10/10/6-10/12/5
10/10/6-10/12/5
10/10/6-10/12/5
10/10/6-10/12/5
グループ
統合
地すべり
統合
統合
Training plan for 2011 (7 persons)
氏名
Laszlo Podolski
Pavle Ferič
Ivo Andrić
Ivana Sušanj
Darija Bilandžija
Martin Krkač
Kristijan Ljutić
2013
所属
期間
クロアチア地質調査所・研究員
11/10/18-11/12/7
ザグレブ大学・助教
11/10/18-11/12/7
スプリト大学・助教
11/11/6-11/12/20
リエカ大学・助教
11/11/6-12/1/26
ザグレブ大学・助教
12/1/11-11/2/14（予定）
ザグレブ大学・助教
11/12/1-12/1/30（予定）
リエカ大学・助教
11/12/1-12/1/30（予定）
グループ
統合
統合
洪水
洪水
洪水
地すべり
地すべり
【←】
Report of the
training course
In 2010
【↓】
Training for the
analysis of flood
and debris flow
at Kyoto Univ.
Capacity building and technology transfer
⑨-2 Capacity building（Training course in Japan
Achievement
Quotient
２００９
２０１０
２０１１
２０１２
2013
on going
Training results for 2011 (7 persons)
氏名
所属
期間
グループ
Laszlo Podolszki
クロアチア地質調査所・研究員
11/10/18-11/12/07
統合
Ｐａｖｌｅ Ｆｅｒｉć
ザグレブ大学・助教
11/10/18-11/12/07
統合
Ｉｖｏ Ａｎｄｒｉć
スプリト大学・助教
11/11/06-11/12/20
洪水
Ｉｖａｎａ Ｓｕšａｎｊ
リエカ大学・助教
11/11/06-12/0１/26
洪水
ザグレブ大学・助教
Ｄａｒｉｊａ
Ｂｉｌａｎｄžｉｊａ
2011年実績（7名）
１2/01/11-12/02/14
洪水
Martin Krkać
ザグレブ大学・助教
11/11/30-12/01/30
地すべり
Ｋｒｉｓｔｉｊａｎ Ｌｊｕｔｉć
リエカ大学・助教
11/11/30-12/01/30
地すべり
【上図】2010年
度研修報告書
【
2011年11月、洪水WG
洪水・土石流解析演習状況
Training plan for 2012 and 2013 （5 persons)
氏名
所属
期間
グループ
Ｋｒｉｓｔｉｊａｎ Ｌｊｕｔｉć
リエカ大学・助教
12/04/11-12/06/01
地すべり
Ｖｉvoda Martina
リエカ大学・助教
12/04/11-12/06/01
地すべり
Ivana Susan
リエカ大学・助教
12/08/03-12/10/16
洪水
Petra Domlija
リエカ大学・助教
13/01/17-13/03/19
統合
Sanja Berna
ザグレブ大学・助教
13/01/17-13/03/19
統合
2012年4，5月、地すべりWG
30
リングせん断試験機操作状況
ワークショップ実績（周辺諸国への波及および連携）
Organization of Workshops （Collaboration with neighboring countries）
⑪ Technology transfer（International Workshop）
1st Workshop
in Dubrovnik,
Nov. 2010
(41 papers from
8 countries)
2nd Workshop
in Rijeka,
Dec. 2011
3rd Workshop
in Zagreb,
Mar. 2013
4th Workshop
in Split,
Dec. 2013
Participation from neighboring countries:
Albania, BiH, Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, Kosovo, Macedonia, Monte Negro, Serbia, Slovenia
(50 papers from
11 countries)
31
Dissemination and publications
Publications:
Already published（at 2012.9）
In process（at 2012.10）
Items
Scientific Journal
number
３
Items
Scientific Journal
number
１０
Proceedings
１１
Proceedings
２
Extended abstract
Master Thesis
Bachelor Thesis
Annual Report
Book
１９
７
２
６
2
Extended abstract
Master Thesis
Bachelor Thesis
Annual Report
Book
２１
２
1
‐
2
Interviews by media:
報道実績
項目
Television
テレビ
件数
4
Radio
ラジオ
5
新聞
広報
Webその他
4
5
10
記事
Hrvatska radiotelevizija（クロアチ
ア公共放送局）他
Hrvatska radiotelevizija（クロアチ
ア公共放送局）他
Večernji list他
ザグレブ市戦略企画策定室他
クロアチア国スポーツ・科学省他
Situation of Interviews by Televison
（Bottom：at Rijeka City/ 2011. March)
(Middle： at Zagreb City/ 2011. November）
32
To attain the target
ＪＳＴ Higher Project
Application of research results and land-use guidelines for
Adriatic and Balkan countries
ＪＳＴ Objective of the project
Formulation of land-use guidelines for mitigation of landslide and flood
disasters in Croatia on the basis of scientific research results
Cooperation with
Dissemination to
Administrative
Local Inhabitants
Institutions
Formulation of integrated landslide-flood hazard maps for target areas
Already accomplished
Already accomplished
Flood hazard map
Landslide hazard map
Identification of
endangered areas
targeting watershed
Distributedparameter
Runoff model
＋
Surface soil
erosion model
Runoff Analysis
Identification of
endangered areas
targeting
river channel
Flash-flood/
Debris flow
Simulation
Identification of
endangered areas
targeting selected
landslides
Application of
Landslide
dynamics
Identification of
endangered areas
for wider
target areas
Application of
Analytical
Hierarchy
Process
(AHP)
1st Step: Identification of Individual Landslide
Landslide Inventory Map
2nd Step: Evaluation of Landslide Susceptibility
Landslide Hazard Map
3rd Step: Recognition of Current Landuse
Landuse Map
4th Step: Interpretation of Risk Factor of Current Landuse
Landuse Risk Map
5th Step: Interpretation of Current Landuse
Vulnerability Map
Framework for Landslide
Risk Identification
Recognition of Individual landslides
Evaluation of landslide Susceptibility
Landslide Hazard Map
Recognition of Current Landuse
Importance of Objects to be protected
Risk Factor of Current Landuse
Evaluation of Urgency
Landslide Risk Map
6th Step:Evaluation of Urgency for Landuse Management
Prototype of Landslide Risk Map
SATREPS
A Certain Modifications
should be necessary.
SATREPS
Science and Technology Research Partnership
for Sustainable Development
Output of the Joint Project on
Risk Identification and Land-use Planning for Disaster
Mitigation of Landslides and Floods in Croatia
Manual for Hazard Mapping and Formulation
of Landuse Guideline
WG3 Leader of Japanese Research Team: Prof. Hideaki Marui
We are going to finalize
Necessary Modification
Jointly with Croatian
Research Team in the
Next 3 months.
Formulation of Integrated Hazard Map
42
Formulation of Integrated Hazard Map
Integrated Hazard Map for landslides and floods
in Medvednica Mountains in Zagreb City
43
Most recent landslide in Rijeka region
A new landslide occurred in February 2014 at Grohovo-Village!
New landslide / Width:100m, Length:280m
Grohovo landslide
1:5000
New landslide
New landslide
Grohovo landslide
1:5000
1:5000
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御清聴ありがとうございました。
Hvala na pažnji!
Large scale landslide on the opposite
slope of Grohovo landslide