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Migration and Settlement in
Canada: Dynamics and Policy
Termote, M.G.
IIASA Working Paper
WP-78-037
1978
Termote, M.G. (1978) Migration and Settlement in Canada: Dynamics and Policy. IIASA Working Paper. WP-78-037
Copyright © 1978 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/874/
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DRAFT
MIGRATION AND SETTLEMENT IN CANADA:
DYNAMICS AND POLICY
ｾＱ｡ｲ｣
September 1978
*Instltut
.
G. Termote *
WP-78-37
National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS)
Quebec
Working papers are internal publications
intended for circulation within the Institute only. Opinions or views contained
herein are solely those of the author.
2361
Laxenburg
Austria
I
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Preface
To promote international scientific cooperation and to
disseminate research results, the Migration and Settlement Task
of the Human Settlements and Services Area at IIASA initiated a
comparative analysis of patterns of interregional migration and
spatial population growth in National Member Organization Countries.
To carry out the study, a network of national scholars
was established, an integrated methodology for multiregional
demographic analysis was developed and a package of computer
programs to implement this methodology was written.
The contri-
butors were invited to prepare reports on migration and settlement in their respective countries.
computer analysis was done by IIASA.
An outline was provided and
The results of the various
case studies will be discussed at a conference to be held at
IIASA in September 1978.
In this report, Professor Marc Termote of the Institut
National de la Recherche Scientifique in Quebec analyzes the
regional demographic changes in Canada.
The investigation on a
provincial basis leads him to draw attention to some very important implications of recent demographic behavior of the population and to propose a more rigorous population distribution
policy.
Frans Willekens
Leader
Migration & Settlement Task
This report owes much to D. Philipov and F. Willekens, both from
IIASA, and to R. Frechette, from INRS. Of course, being thankful to these friends does not exonerate the author from all the
errors he left.
iii
Table of Contents
Preface
iii
1.
SHORT HISTORICAL INTRODUCTION
2.
CURRENT PATTERN OF SPATIAL POPULATION
A.
3.
1
ｾｔｗｏｒｇ
13
The Data
13
2.1
Regional Disaggregation
13
2.2
The Choice of the Period
2.3
Births
13
14
2.4
Deaths
15
2.5
Migration
15
2.6
Population Data
18
2.7
Relative Importance of ComPonents of Regional
Growth
18
2.8
Regional Fertility Differentials
21
3.
Regional Mortality Differentials
25
4.
Regional Migration Differentials
28
5.
Regional Differences in the Age-Sex Structure
37a
MULTIREGIONAL ANALYSIS
40
A.
The Multiregional Life Table
40
1.
The Life History of the Birth Cohort
40
2.
The Life Expectancies
42
B.
Population Projection and Stability
46
C.
Spatial Reproduction and Migraproduction Levels
56
4.
CONCLUSION:
5.
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
68
SOr{E POLICY ASPECTS
78
Appendix A.
Observed demographic rates (1966-1971).
population.
Total
80
Appendix B.
Multiregional life table for total population:
86
Appendix C.
1.
Probabilities of dying and migrating
(1969- 1971 )
2.
Expected number of survivors of exact age
x in each region
3.
Expectations of life
Stable equivalent population by province and
age, Canada, 1971
v
101
1.
SHORT HISTORICAL INTRODUCTION
Like most other immigrant countries, Canada has experienced
a rather high rate of growth of its population.
In 1851, the
total population (excluding Newfoundland, which became part of
Canada only in 1948) was only 2.4 million, but it had more than
doubled 50 years later (5.4 million), and almost doubled again
in the next 30 years (10.4 million in 1931).
It took only 35
years more to have it doubled again (20 million in 1966), but
in the last decade the growth rate declined markedly:
while the
population had increased by 30% between 1951 and 1961, it increased only by 15% between 1966 and 1976.
In absolute numbers,
however, the increase did not drop in the long run; 3 million
were added to the Canadian population over the last 10 years
(1966-1976), while a comparable 9.6 million were added over the
preceding 35 years (1931-1966).
This high growth rate was accompanied by a considerable re1
distribution of the population of Canada among its provinces
(see map of territorial deliniations) characterized mainly by
a marked Westward shift, particularly to the two most western
provinces, Alberta and British Columbia:
as shown in Table 1,
the share of these two provinces was only 4.7% in 1901, but was
four times larger three quarters of a century later (18.3% in
1976).
The two other western provinces (the so-called Prairie
'provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan), experienced a rapid
growth during the first decades of the century (particularly
Saskatchewan, the share of which increased from 17% in 1901 to
8.9% in 1931) but have seen their share steadily decreasing since
1931
(from 15.7% to 8.5% in 1976).
1It should be emphasized that this study will be limited to
analyzing migration and population redistribution among provinces:
the dynamics of population redistribution for other spatial units
has been considered elsewhere.
See for instance, C. Dionne and
M. Termote, The Interregional Redistribution of the Population
of Canada (Statistics Canada, forthcoming); where the spatial
units are the 67 "economic regions": and L.O. Stone, Migration
in Canada, Regional Aspects (Statistics Canada, 1969) and Migration Profiles, (Statistics Canada, 1977), where the urban-rural
dimension is included.
- 2 -
The two most populous provinces of Canada have always been
Ontario and Quebec:
those two provinces contained 71% of the
total population in 1901, but this heavy concentration dropped
to 63% between 1901 and 1911, a share which remained almost constant since then (in 1976, their share was still 63%); since the
end of the last world war, the share of Ontario is constantly
increasing (from 32.8% in 1951 to 36.0% in 1976).
With the ex-
ception of Newfoundland (the share of which remained almost-constant since the entrance of this province in the Canadian Confederation), all other maritime provinces (Prince Edward Island,
Nova Scotia and New Brunswick) experienced a continuous decline
in their share of Canada's population (taken together, the share
of these three provinces decreased from 16.6% in 1901 to 7.0%
in 1976).
Summarizing the westward shift of the population since
the beginning of this century, we may conclude that the Maritime
provinces lost half of their share, mainly in favor of the two
most western provinces which had their share increased fourfold,
while the two central and also, most populous provinces since
1911 contain an almost constant part of the total population of
Canada.
This important shift in the distribution of the population
among provinces does, however, not imply a smaller concentration.
In order to obtain an index of concentration, the observed percentage of population in each province was subtracted from the
percentage expected in case of equal distribution among provinces
(10% for the 1901-1941 period and 9.1% afterwards), and the positive differences were summed, the index so obtained for each
census year represents the percentage of Canada's population
that would have to be redistributed to obtain equal population
numbers in all the provinces.
The indices for the 1901-1976
period are:
1901
51.2
1951
43.6
1911
43.0
1961
44.8
1921
40.3
1966
45.7
1931
40.9
1971
46.4
1941
42.0
1976
46.4
Province or
1901
1911
1921
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
Newfoundland
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
Prince Edward Island
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
Nova Scotia
8.5
6.8
6.0
4.9
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.7
3·.6
New Brunswick
6.2
4.9
4.4
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.3
3. 1
2.9
2.9
Quebec
30.7
27.8
26.9
27.7
29.0
29.0
28.8
28.8
28.9
27.9
27. 1
Ontario
40.7
35. 1
33.4
33.1
32.9
32.8
33.6
34.2
34.8
35.7
36.0
Manitoba
4.7
6.4
6.9
6.8
6.3
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.5
Saskatchewan
1.7
6.8
8.6
8.9
7.8
5.9
5.5
5. 1
4.8
4.3
4.0
Alberta
1.4
5.2
6.7
7.0
6.9
6.7
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.6
8.0
British Columbia
3.3
5.5
6.0
6.7
7. 1
8.3
8.7
8.9
9.3
10. 1
10.7
Yukon and
Northwest Territories
0.2
O. 1
O. 1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Territory
Canada
1931
1941
Sources:
Statistics Canada, 1971 Census (catalogue 92-702 and 99-701) and 1976 Census.
Table 1:
Percentage Distribution of Population, by Provinces 1901-1976
w
- 4 -
These indices show that during the first two decades of this century, there was an important decrease in the concentration of
population, but that since 1921, there has been a steady movement towards a greater concentration, with however, an apparent
stabilization since the 1970's.
The interprovincial redistribution of Canada's population
is mainly due to fertility and migration.
Histdrically, there
have undoubtedly been important differences in the mortality conditions among provinces; for instance, in 1931 the expectation
of life at birth was 60.0 years for males and 62.1 for females,
but in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, expectations of life
were respectively 635 for males and 65.5 for females, which, at
the other extreme, was only 56.2 for males and 56.8 for females
in Quebec.
In 1971, the expectation of life for the whole of
Canada had increased to 69.3 years for males and 76.4 for females;
Quebec still had the lowest expectation of life, but the difference with the Canadian average was considerably reduced (1.0 years
instead of 3.8 for males and 1.1 instead of 5.3 for females); at
the other extreme, Saskatchewan (followed by Alberta and Manitoba)
still had the highest expectation of life, and here again the
difference with the Canadian average is considerably lower, for
males 0.8 years instead of 3.5 and for females 1.2 instead of
3.4).
The intrinsic mortality rate is, however, a more signifi-
cant measure of the impact of mortality on population redistribution:
in 1971, this rate for males was 14.4 for the whole of
Canada, with 14.6 (in Quebec) at one extreme and 14.1
(in
Saskatchewan) at the other; for females, the rates were respectively 13.1, 13.3 and 12.9.
With differences being so small,
the impact of mortality on population redistribution has to be
negligible.
Fertility differentials, however, have undoubtedly played
an important role in the redistribution of Canada's population.
Table 2 not only shows that gross fertility rates may be,even in
the 1970's, almost twice higher from one province to another,
but also illustrates the considerable disparities in the evolution
of these rates:
Quebec which had the highest gross fertility
- 5 -
-Canada
Highest provincial rate
Lowest provincial rate
1931
32
40 (Quebec)
22 (British Columbia)
1941
28
37 (New Brunswick)
23 (British Columbia)
1951
35
44 (New Brunswick)
32 (British Columbia)
1961
39
56 (Newfoundland)
37 (Ontario)
1971
22
34 (Newfoundland)
19 (Quebec)
Note:
see notes at the end of table 6.
Table 2:
Gross Fertility Rate (in %) of Women, 1926-1971
rate in 1931, had the lowest rate in 1971.
The decrease of
Quebec's rate was particularly rapid; starting at 40% in 1931,
it was still at 38% in 1946 and remained constant at the 38% 39% level for each year during the whole 1946-1960 period: but
in only 10 years, from 1961 to 1971, it decreased to a level
twice smaller.
On the other side, Ontario, which in 1931 had
a gross fertility rate of 26% (the second lowest rate) had in
1971 a rate which was only slightly smaller (22%).
This considerable and rapid convergence in fertility rates,
as well as the already negligible differences in the mortality
conditions, will give to migration an increasing impact on population redistribution.
This is why the historical analysis of
this component will be a little less sketchy.
International migration has been an important source of
demographic growth not only for Canada as a who£e, but also for
most of its provinces.
However, precise historical data are hard
2
to find; some rough estimates indicate that during the last de-
cades of the 19th century, the Prairie provinces (Manitoba and
Saskatchewan) received a fair amount of international migrants,
probably as large an amount as inmigration from other parts of
Canada: these two provinces had received almost twice as many
2
See L.O. Stone, Migration in Canada, Regional Aspects, op.cit.
pp . 1 4 0- 14 1 .
- 6 -
immigrants (85,000) than Ontario (44,000) or British Columbia
(43,000); their share in the total number of immigrants (223,000)
was 38%.
This 1891-1901 period (and the 1901-1911 period, for
which no data on international migration exist) corresponds to
the peak of the western settlement.
During the 1911-1921 period
the share of the Prairie provinces in the total immigration flow
(855,000) was still considerable, but declining
ＨＳＰＥｾＬ
while
Ontario, which had received only 20% of immigrants in 1891-1901,
emerges as the main pole of attraction, with a share of 35%.
The Great Depression reduced considerably the flow of international
migration:
there were 750,000 of them during the 1921-1931 de-
cade (with 40% going to Ontario), but only 190,000 in 1931-1941
(Ontario still receiving 40% of them).
After a slow increase
during the 1941-1951 period, ,immigration became very large in
1951-1961, with a total inflow of 1,2 million people, 55% of
them settling in Ontario, 17% in Quebec and 12% in British Columbia.
Finally, the immigration figure reached a new peak (1.4 million)
in 1961-1971, with Ontario still receiving more than half of the
inflow (53%).
Using rough estimates of emigration (for which no data eXist)3,
one may obtain some indication on the contribution of international
migration to total demographic growth.
For the whole of Canada,
this contribution represents 25% (30% in the second half of the
decade).
But, as we indicated
ｰｾ･ｶｩｯｵｳｬｹＬ
the provinces did not
receive a share which was proportional to their share in Canada's
population.
Table 3 presents the provincial shares in immigra-
tion and emigration and in total population for the 1961-1971
period (the 1966-1971 period will be considered in the next chapter.
The results presented in this table indicate the direction
of the bias which is introduced in our multiregional analysis
by eliminating international migration.
For instance, it is
obvious that the share of Ontario (and to a lesser degree British
Columbia) in the stable population distribution, as obtained by
3we adopted the emigration estimates prposed by Statistics
Canada in its Technical Report on Population Projection for Canada
and the Provinces, 1971-2001, Ottawa 1975, p. 197-201.
- 7 -
Population (average)
1961-71
2.5
Immigration
Emigration
Newfoundland
0.5
2.7
Prince Edward Island
O. 1
0.5
0.6
Nova Scotia
1.2
3.8
3.8
New Brunswick
0.7
3.7
3.1
Quebec
20.3
29.7
28.4
Ontario
53.3
36.1
35.0
Manitoba
3.6
4.2
4.8
Saskatchewan
1.6
4.2
4.6
Alberta
6.2
6.3
7.4
12.4
8.6
9.6
O. 1
0.2
0.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
British Columbia
Yukon and
NorthwestTerritories
Canada
Table 3:
Share (in %) of Provinces in International Migration
and Total Population 1961-1971
Source:
Statistics Canada, Technical Report ... op.cit. p. 201,
table 7.4.
considering only mortality, fertility and interprovincial migration, will be underestimated:
these provinces receive a share
of the international migration inflow which is much larger than
their share in the total population, while their share in the
emigration flow corresponds more or less to their share in the total
population.
Correlatively, all 8 other provinces receive less
than their share--their share in emigration being close to their
share in total population, this implies that their share in the
stable population distribution will be over-estimated (this is
particularly valid for Quebec).
The pattern of interprovincial migration is not very different from the one shown by international migration.
Since the
beginning of this century, Ontario and British Columbia have been
- 8 -
the gaining provinces, in the same way as they are the main beneficiaries of international migration.
The Prairie provinces
(Manitoba and Saskatchewan) made large gains through interprovincial migration, in the first decades of this century, but
started to lose during the 1921-1931 period and since then, their
net interprovincial migration figures are continuously negative;
we have seen that the same historical pattern is valid, on the
whole, for the international migration flows of these two provinces.
Alberta benefited from the
than the Prairie provinces:
II
go west ll movement longer
its net interprovincial migration
became negative only in the 1930's- since the 1950's, mainly
thanks to its important natural resources (oil), Alberta has
again been attracting more interprovincial migrants than it had
been losing (the gain is particularly considerable since 1974
as a result of the "energy crisis ll ) .
The four Maritime provinces
have consistently been losing population through interprovincial
migration.
Finally, Quebec was able to balance more or less out-
migration with inmigration, at least until the 1940's.
Since
the end of the Second World War, however, Quebec's net interprovincial migration has been negative for almost each year.
An analysis of the evolution of interprovincial migration
over the last 25 years is obviously not feasible with census
migration data, which are available only for the 1956-1961 and
1966-1971 periods.
Such an analysis is, however, meaningful,
because it is important to know whether
ｴｨｾ
interprovincial mi-
gration pattern observed through 1971 census for the 1966-1971
period, and which will be projected in our multiregional demographic analysis, may be representative for a longer period, or
reflects an exceptional situation.
In order to have some indi-
cations on the evolution of interprovincial over the 1951-1975
period, we will use yearly migration estimates obtained by
Statistics Canada from data on family allowance transfers.
These
estimates are based on some assumptions which are, of course,
always disputable--moreover, they are not comparable to migration data obtained from the census, because of multiple migrations, mortality and emigration among interprovincial migrants
and because of underenumeration.
Actually, for the 1966-1971
- 9 -
period, the number of interprovincial migrants estimated from
the data on family allowance transfers is twice as large as the
number of interprovincial migrants. enumerated at the census.
But, if the level of the yearly rates of migration so obtained
is disputable, the evolution of these rates may be considered
as correctly respresenting the real trend.
As the census data
on migration, used in our multiregional analysis, are for a fiveyear period, we will present, in table 4, only the evolution over
the five five-year periods from 1951-1976.
From the rates presented in Table 4, we may derive some
interesting results:
(a) Three provinces have a lower than average outmigration
rate:
Quebec has the lowest rate (linguistic and ｣ ｵ ｬ ｴ ｵ ｾ ｡ ｬ
aistance is probably the main factor), followed by Ontario (which
has the strongest and most advanced economy among all provinces)
and Newfoundland (physical distance is here the main factor,
this province being a large island in the Atlantic far from any
other province).
Prince Edward Island has the highest outmigra-
tion rates, which is not surprising, this province being a small
island, close to Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
The
latter two provinces plus the two Prairie provinces (Manitoba
and Saskatchewan) and Alberta, have also high outmigration rates,
almost twice as high as
the Canadian average; these provinces
are all industrially underdeveloped (with the exception of Alberta
in the last periods).
(b) There is a strong correlation between inmigration rates
and outmigration rates:
on the whole, the higher the
tion rate the higher the inmigration rate.
ｯｵｴｭｩｧｲ｡ｾＧ
The most striking
exception to this rule are British Columbia and Alberta, which
have the highest inmigration rates but only middle range outmigration rates (even if these are above average), and Ontario
(which has an inmigration rate twice that of Quebec, while
it has an outmigration rate only slightly larger).
These three
exceptions are also the three only provinces which are benefiting
from interprovincial migration.
(c) Over the long period (1951-1976), the province which
has the highest net interprovincial migration rate is British
Columbia, but Ontario is the province that
benefits most from
OUT-MIGRATION
IN-MIGRATION
NET MIGRATION
(4)
(2)
(3 )
(1)
(2 )
(3 )
(4)
1.6
2.0
2.4
1.7
2.2
-0.8 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6
3.6
3.6
6.8
5.7
4. 1
4.0
-2.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4
4.2
3.0
3.3
4.7
4.9
4.0
3.9
-0.8 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6
3. 1
3.9
2.9
3.2
5.2
5.2
3.6
3.6
-2.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.4
Quebec
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.7
1.5
1.3
0.9
1.1
-0.4 -0.1
Ontario
2.5
2.2
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5
Manitoba
3.8
3.8
3.3
3.3
4.6
4.5
4.0
4.4
-0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1
Saskatchewan
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.6
5.0
4.9
3.7
4.4
-1.5 -1.4 -0.9 -1.8
Alberta
5. 1
5. 1
3.6
4. 1
4.7
4.6
3.8
3.8
0.4
0.5 -0.2
0.3 .
British Columbia
4.3
3.8
4.0
4.6
3.3
3.2
2.7
3.0
1.0
0.6
1.6
Canada
2.6
2.6
2.0
2.0
2.6
2.6
2.0
2.0
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4 )
Newfoundland
1.2
1.4
1.3
Prince Edward Island
4.7
5. 1
Nova Scotia
3.9
New Brunswick
(5)
(5)
(1)
0.8
0.5
(5)
0.0 -0.4
0.2
0.3
ｾ
1.3
Table 4:
Interprovincial Migration Rates (in %); Yearly Average for Five-Year Periods, 1951-76
Source:
Statistics Canada, Technical Report •.• , op.cit. pp. 204 and 207 (the rates for 1966-71
have been corrected), and Statistics Canada, Interprovincial Migration ... , Ottawa,
1977, pp.
0
- 11-
these migrations, as its net gain represents more than half (53%)
of the total net gain received by all provinces having a positive
net interprovincial migration.
Alberta has had a small (but re-
cently increasing) positive net migration, in numbers as well
as in rates.
All other provinces have been consistently losing
population through interprovincial migration the most disfavorable situation being that of Saskatchewan (which takes 27% of
the total net loss) followed by a group comprising all 4 of the
Maritime provinces and Manitoba; Quebec's migration rates are
only slightly below zero, its share (22%) is the total net loss
being, however, second only to that of Saskatchewan.
(d) Let us consider the 1966-1971 period with regard to the
general evolution over the whole 1951-1976 period.
It is indeed
important for assessing the significance of our multiregional
analysis which uses 1966-1971 data to note that the 1966-1971
outmigration rates are close to the 1951-1976 average rates,
with a difference not exceeding 10% (except for Prince Edward
Island, where however the absolute number of migrants is small).
Of course, net migration rates being much smaller, are much
more sensitive to a particular situation, so that these rates
for 1966-1971 may be quite different than those estimated for
the whole 1951-1976 period (see for instance, the figures for
New Brunswick and British Columbia).
On the whole, it appears
that for the 7 provinces which have higher than average outmigration rates (and also negative outmigration, except for the
two Western provinces, Alberta and British Columbia), there
has been a steady decline in these rates as well in the net migration rates (the Prairie provinces being an exception for the
latter), so that in 1971-1976, some of these previously permanent losers have even become winners:
this is the case for all
four Maritime provinces and since 1974 even Saskatchewan is a
winner.
The main victim of this reversal in migration trends
is Ontario which, after having been for half a century the
main beneficiary of interprovincial migration, is now a province
of net outmigration.
Whether this considerable reversal in the
interprovincial migration pattern of Canada is only temporary
and exceptional (i.e. due to conditions which are particular
to the period), or whether it marks the beginning of a new trend
-
12 -
(possibly towards a more balanced pattern of interprovincial
'
migration flows) remains an open ques t lon.
4
4The causes of this reversal in interprovincial migration
trends are presently being investigated through a simultaneous
equation model, by M. Termote and R. Frechette in a study commissioned by the Canadian Ministry of Urban Affairs.
-
2.
13 -
CURRENT PATTERN OF SPATIAL POPULATION GROWTH
The main purpose of this chapter is to describe the most
important demographic characteristics of the 1966-1971 period.
Before that, a short critical presentation of the data used is in
order.
A.
2.1
The basic data
ｴｨ･ｭｳ･ｬｶ･ｾ
being presented in the appendix.
The Data
Regional Disaggregation
As mentioned previously, the spatial units useq in
ｴｨｩｾ
multiregional population analysis of Canada are the ten provinces (see map} ｾ
The Yukon and Northwest Territories were left
out, as data for these regions are either nonexistent or highly
unreliable; the impact of this exclusion should, however, be
negligible as together these two regions represent only 0.3% of
the total population of Canada.
2.2
The Choice of the Period
Only the census is able to provide reliable data on the age
structure of migrants.
The first time in the census history of
Canada that a specific question on migration was introduced in
the census questionnaire was in 1941.
The 1951 census had no
migration question, but detailed data relating to the 1956-1961
period were collected in the 1961 Census on a 20% sample basis
for persons aged 5 years and over in 1961 and residing in private
households (including of course one-person households).
The
sample was increased to 30% in the 1971 Census, and all households (private and public) were considered:
the head of each
household had to answer the question "where did you stay 5 years
ago (on June 1, 1966)".
The 1976 Census also contained a question
on the place of residence 5 years earlier, but the results are
as yet not tabulated.
The 1971 Census being the most recent one
for which data are available, the choice was clear:
our multi-
regional population analysis will refer to the demographic conditions observed during the two-year period from June 1, 1966 to
5
See note 1 , page 1.
13a -
I
II
I
1
,
\
I
!
\
i,
0--,-
ｾＮ
I
., .!
Ｚｾ
ｾ
I
-'
lI
!/
'/
'
/
.... ＭＧｾ
... ......... ,...
....
ｾＺＬ ｟Ｍ
...--: ... ': ＭＺ Ｎ［ｾ
.
-
--'-,::::>
-J:-
....
".
Ｎｾ
/
! I'
!
;
ＡＢｾＺＧｉ
ｾ［Ｍ
J? ;.
1
i·
;
-ｾ
... ｾＭ
!' .
,-,
ｾＮ
-- 0; ,
ｾ
ｾ
r";
ｾ
>
ｾ
"'-
i
i
f··;
£
,.ｾ ': ;
ｾ
ｾ
II .
:
'.'
";"'i
ｾ
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)
-
.-._.--
---
-
14 -
May 31, 1971.
2.3
Births
Vital statistics data on the number of births by sex,
and by age (five-year age groups) of the mother, are available
for each province and by civil year (from January 1 to December
31)6.
In order to translate these data into census years, we
had to use monthly data for 1966 and 1971.
The monthly data,
however, are not disaggregated by age of mother,and by sex, so
that we had to apply the distribution (by sex,and by age of the
mother) observed for the whole year 1966 to the total number of
births regjstered from June to December 1966; the same was done
for the sub-period January 1971 - May 1971.
By doing this, we
may of course introduce some errors, but it seems fairly well
acceptable to assume that the impact of these disaggregation
errors will be negligible since they refer only to a short subperiod, we may suppose that they will be dissolved when the
data for the sub-periods are added to the "correct" data observed for 1967-1970.
A more important g:roblem results ,fr0m the fact
ｴｨｾｴ
fQI;
Newfoundland, no disaggregation by age of the mother exists.
As Newfoundland has the highest fertility rate among all provinces, we estimated the number of births by age of the mother by
adopting the age-specific fertility rates observed for Prince
Edward Island, which has the second largest total fertility rate
and which is also an island in the Atlantic Ocean.
The differ-
ence between the total number of births so estimated and the observed total number of births was then distributed over the fiveyear age groups of the mother proportionately to the percentage
of each age group in the total number of births previously estimated.
By applying the structure of age-specific rates of one
province to another province, we may of course introduce some
errors.
be small.
It is, however, highly probable that these errors will
Indeed, it has been found that " •• even under greatly
differing conditions of fertility, the relative levels of
6statistics Canada, Vital Statistics, Yearly. For the 19661971 period, the exact references are:
catalogue No
, pp
- 15 age-specific rates for women in the age group from 15-19 to
40-44 are not very different".7
We may thus be confident that
the estimated disaggregation by age of the mother of the total
number of births observed in Newfoundland will be an acceptable
one.
8
2.4
Deaths
Vital statistics data on the number of deaths are available
by sex and age, for each province.
There was therefore no parti-
cular problem, except for the translation from civil years to
census years.
The procedure which was used for solving this
prQblem was similar to the one adopted for the data on births.
2.5
Migration
As mentioned before, only interprovincial migration is con-
sidered here.
Besides the well-known limitations inherent to
census data on migration which are derived from a question on
the place of resj dence "five years ago"
..
.
Climitations related to
ｾ
underenumeration , multiple migration, return migration, emigration and mortality
among migrants) and which are always to be
kept in mind in interpreting the results, there are a number of
particular problems which had to be solved in order to make these
7Methods for Population Projections by Sex and Age, United
Nations, 1957, Population Studies No. 25, St/SOA/Series A, p.44.
8Note that Statistics Canada, in projecting the population
over the 1971-2001 period, chose to apply to Newfoundland the
age-specific fertility rates observed in Nova Scotia, modified
by a ratio equal to 1.35, representing the excess fertility of
Newfoundland. The choice of Nova Scotia was justified by the
fact that the 1.35 ratio between the total number of actual
births in Newfoundland and the total number of births estimated
using Nova Scotia fertility rates was more or less constant over
the 1961-1971 period.
Such a constant ratio is an important criterion when fertility projections have to be made (this was the
case for Statistics Canada) but is not relevant for us, as we
consider only the characteristics of a single period. As a check,
we compared Newfoundland's fertility rate as obtained by our way of
disaggregating by age of mother with the rate obtained by Statistics Canada: our figure is 38% while Statistics Canada obtains
37%.
9As is well-known, the rate of underenumeration is usually
larger at the ages of high mobility. This is also the case for
the 1971 Canadian census: the underenumeration rate for migrants
between municipalities has been estimated by Statistics Canada to
be 1.9% for all ages, but 2.6% for the 15-19 age group, 4.5% for the
20-24 age group, and 2.5% for the 25-39 age group.
- 16 -
data useful and more meaningful for our analysis.
Most of these
problems relate to the age of the migrant.
(a) Migrants in the 0-4 age group (age at the end of the
census period) are not enumerated,
since they were not alive on
June 1, 1966 and therefore had no place of residence at the time.
In order to obtain migration data for this age group, we had to
rely on the results of the question on the place of birth:
those
residing in 1971 in one province and born between 1966 and 1971
in another province are by definition migrants.
Data obtained
by this way are not strictly comparable to data directly obtained
from the migration question, because rates of underenumeration
may differ from one question to another, but it may be believed
that differences are small.
Another way to obtain migration estimates for the 0-4 age
group, would have been to assign to the children aged 0-4 the
mobility status observed for the head of the family (or household in the case of non-family members), or to apply the adequate
fertility rates to the observed number of female migrants (assuming no fertility differentials between female migrants and female
non-migrants).
The advantage of the latter method is that one is
insured that the number of projected migrants in the 0-4 age
group is always in conformity with the numbers of mothers or
household heads who are projected to move.
But, on the other
hand, one has to assume that these children in the 0-4 age group
who are assigned to a migrant mother or household head were all
born before the migration of the mother of the household head.
(b) Migrants in the 5-14 age group had not to answer, for
obvious reasons, the census questionnaire, and therefore the
question on migration.
Statistics Canada assigned to the popu-
lation in this age group the mobility status of the head of the
family (for the family members) or of the household (for nonfamily members).
The procedure seems
acceptable, but again,
as in the case of the number of 0-4 migrants, the data are not
strictly comparable with those obtained directly from answering
the migration question.
-
17 -
(c) Only the total number of migrants aged 65 years and over
was tabulated by Statistics Canada.
For the purpose of our multi-
regional demographic analysis, it was, however, more meaningful
to use age-dis aggregated data for this population.
gation ｰ ｲ ｯ ｣ ･ ､ ｵ ｲ ･ Ｑ ｾ ｨ ｩ ｣
The disaggre-
has been adopted is based on a linear
extrapolation within the 65 years and over age group, with the
following rule:
if x represents the total number of enumerated
,migrants in the 65 years and over age group, then the number of
migrants in the 65-69 age group is estimated to be equal to Ｕｾ ［
the number for the 70-74 age group equal to ＴｾＵＧ
the number for
x
the 75-79 age group equal to 315 , the number for the 80-84 age
group equal to ＲｾＵＧ
and the number for the 85 'years and over
age group equal to T5 (the number 15 in the denominator being
of course obtained by summing the weights given to each age
group, from 1 to 5).
This procedure is clearly rather arbitrary, but probably
no more so than any other procedure which could have been adopted.
In the case of Canada, it seems to lead to a slight over-
estimation of migration for the oldest age group, and a slight
underestimation of migration for the 65-69 age group, but at these
ages the migration figures are so small that it is in any case
preferrable toabstain from interpreting the results.
(d) Migrants with unknown place of previous residence are
quite numerous:
in the 1971 Census, 279,300 persons (7.1% of
the total number of intermunicipal migrants aged 5 years and
over) reported that they had moved between 1966 and 1971, but
did not indicate their 1966 place of residence.
Some of these
migrants did, however, report their previous province of residence, leaving unknown only the previous municipality of residence, so that we had only to distribute part of the migrants
with unknown
previous place of residence; this distribution was
done proportionately to the number of known interprovincial
10This disaggregation procedure was suggested and realized
by Dimiter Philipov,
from IIASA.
-
18 -
fl ows. 11
.
migratlon
(e) Because of random rounding applied to all 1971 census
data, the number of migrants summed over all age groups does not
correspond to the total (i.e. all age groups) of migrants
ｴ｡｢ｾｬ｡ﾭ
ted directly; the difference between both figures has been redistributed proportionately to the age group data.
2.6
Population Data
The 1966 and 1971 Census data on population were used.
These
census figures are available for each of the 10 provinces by 5year age groups, and were averaged in order to obtain the necessary estimates of the populationB.
ｦｩｧｵｲｾ
atr mid-period.
The 1966-1971 REGIONAL GROWTH PATTERN
The purpose of this section is to describe the pattern of
each of the various components of multiregional demographic
growth as well as the resultant age and sex structure.
First,
the relative importance of each component of growth should be
investigated.
2.7
Relative Importance of Components of Regional Growth
Table 5 presents a decomposition for each province of the
total increase in population between 1966 and 1971, into its
three components:
natural growth (difference between number of
births and number of deaths), net interprovincial migration (difference between number of inmigrants and number of outmigrants)."
and net international migration (difference between number of
immigrants and number of emigrants).
These data suggest the
following comments:
11 This is one of the three factors which explains why the
total number of interprovincial migrants (980,160) used in our
analysis differs from the figure published by Statistics Canada
(1971 Census, catalogue no. 92-719, table 32). According to
this publication, the total number of interprovincial migrants
aged 5 years and over was 851,495. To this figure we added
52,600 "unknown migrants", and 85,160 migrants aged betwe:en'O and
4 years; by subtracting the 9,095 migrants who had left either
Yukon or the Northwest Territories (which are excluded from our
study), we obtain a total number of interprovincial migrants
equal to 980,160.
-
19 -
(a) Two-thirds of Canada's increase in population is due
to natural growth and half of Canada's demographic growth is
concentrated in Ontario, which represents only 35% of the total
population--half of Ontario's demographic -growth is due to migration, mainly international migration.
British Columbia and
Alberta, which in 1966 contained respectively 9% and 7% of Canada's
total population, took respectively 20% and 11% of the total increase, while Quebec, with a share in total population of 29%
had
ｯｮｾｹ
16% of the total increase.
(b) The relative contribution of each component of growth
differs considerably among provinces.
Natural growth is the only
source of growth in the Maritime provinces, representing in some
cases (New Brunswick and Newfoundland) almost twice the total
increase of population.
The same is valid for the two Prairie
provinces (except for the not negligible role of international
migration in Manitoba's growth).
Ontario, Alberta and British
Columbia are benefiting from all three sources of demographic
growth, but the role of migration (particularly interprovincial
migration) is by far dominant in British Columbia (where natural
growth represents only 28% of total growth) while it is only
secondary in Alberta (where the contribution of migration was
only 36%, at least in 1966-1971; as mentioned before, since the
oil crisis of 1973-1974, migration to Alberta has become very
important).
Quebec's growth is due mainly to natural growth,
but international migration compensated for 50%, a considerable
loss due to interprovincial migrati.-on;.
(c) Seventy percent of Canada's natural growth is concentrated in 3 provinces:
(11%).
Ontario (34%), Quebec (27%) and Alberta
But 2/3 of Canada's growth due to international migration
goes to Ontario, and 18% to British Columbia:
vinces have to share the remaining 15%.
all 8 other pro-
And as far as interpro-
vincial migration is concerned, it is the same pattern:
Ontario
and British Columbia receive 87% of the total gain through interprovincial migration, but
in this case, it is British Columbia
which is the main beneficiary (it received 60% of total interprovincial gains).
On the negative side, the two main losers from
interprovincial migration in 1966-1971 are Quebec and Saskatchewan
which both take 1/3 of total interprovincial losses.
(1)
Total increase
(2 )
(3)
(4)
Natural growth
Net interprovincial migration
Net international migration
28,708
49,096
3,106
5,211
NOva Scotia
32,921
37,411
New Brunswick
17,769
35,233
Quebec
246,919
Ontario
Newfoundland
Prince Edward Island
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
- 17,589
- 2,799
-
-
1,139
966
8,790
4,300
8,764
- 8,700
288,727
- 78,404
36,596
742,236
373,072
60,757
308,407
25,181
49,259
- 34,535
10,457
- 29,102
50,868
- 79,309
-
661
Alberta
164,671
105,295
26,423
32,953
British Columbia
310,947
88,494
138,215
84,238
10,075
6,500
3,135
440
1,553,431
1,089,166
Yukon and Northwest
Territories
Canada
464,265
Table 5:
Components of Multiregional Demographic Growth 1966-1971
Sources:
(1) Statistics Canada, 1966 and-1971 Census. Total increase ｾｳ
the difference between
total population enumerated at the 1971 Census and total population enumerated at the
1966 Census; (2) Statistics Canada, Vital Statistics; (3) Statistics Canada, 1971
Census; data corrected for migrants of unknown origin and for rounding errors; (4)
obtained as a residual, by subtracting the sum of column (2) and (3) from column (1).
IV
0
- 21 -
As mentioned before, international migration is not accounted
for in our multiregional analysis.
Given its considerable share
in the total growth of some provinces, and the very uneven interprovincial distribution of the gains from international migration,
one may, however, assume that the impact of international migra12
.
tion on population redistribution must be far from negligible
2.8
Regional Fertility Differentials
It is not surprising that in a country extending over such
a wide area and where considerable socio-economic regional disparities exist, the differences in fertility may be quite large.
Table 6 presents the age-specific fertility rates for each province observed in 1966-1971
(by lack of space, and because of the
negligible role of the 10-14 and 45-49 age groups, these groups
were left out), as well as the resulting total (Ugross") fertility and reproduction rates, the crude birth rate and the mean
age of fertility.
Quebec has the lowest total fertility rate, and the lowest
rates for the three youngest age groups (as mentioned before,
the decrease in fertility in Quebec was particularly rapid and
is quite recent) it also has the lowest crude birth rate and the
highest mean age of fertility, and is the only province where
the 25-29 fertility rate is significantly higher than the 20-24
- - - . __._- -
----
._._.-
- -
-
rate, while still being the lowest of all 25-29 provincial rates.
Quebec's gross fertility rate implies that if the 1966-1971
rates continue to prevail, the population is just about to reproduce itself (but Quebec's fertility has continued to decline
during the 1970's, so that presently it does not insure its own
reproduction:
in 1976,· the gross fertility rate was 16%.
The
only other province which has a fertility level significantly below average is British Columbia (except for the younger age groups;
this would be partially due to immigration).
tility regime which is about average.
ｾｦ｡ｮｩｴｯ｢｡
Ontario has a ferand the Maritime
province of Nova Scotia have almost the same, slightly above average fertility level, which the three other Maritime provinces and
Saskatchewan have all four relatively high rates, the highest rates
being those of Newfoundland, which in 1966-1971 had still a gross
fertility rate of 38% and a crude birth rate of 2.6%.
12Some considerations on the impact of internationavmigration on
the interprovincial redistribution of the Canadian population
are presented below, in chapter 4.
Table 6.
Provincial fertility differentials 1966-1971
Age-specific fertility rates
Total
fert.
rate
00
GRR
Crude
birth
rate
Mean age of
fertility
1
2
"
Observed
Pure
25.5
26.5
28. 1
1.5
18. 7
26.8
28. 1
26.5
1.3
18.3
26.0
27.1
1.0
28.2
1.4
19. 1
26. 1
27.4
2.4
0.8
22.0
1.1
16.5
27.3
28.2
4.2
2.0
0.6
24.5
1.2
17.8
26.4
27.0
8. 1
4.7
2.4
0.8
26.6
1.3
18.2
26.4
27.3
9.5
8.6
5.0
2.8
0.9
29.5
1 .5
18. 7
26.3
27.3
2.9
9. 1
8.0
4.4
2.2
0.7
27.4
1.4
20.0
26.0
26.9
British
Colombia
2.8
7.8
7. 1
3.8
1. 7
0.5
23.7
1.2
17.0
25.8
26.6
Total Canada
2.2
7.7
7.5
4.3
2.2
0.7
24.7
1.2
17.8
26.5
27.3
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39.
40-44
Newfoundland
2.8
11. 4
10.9
6.7
4.3
1.7-
38.0
1.9
Prince Edward
Island
2.2
8.8
8.6
5.5
3.5
1.4
30. 1
Nova Scotia
2.8
8.4
7.5
4.4
2.5
0.9
New Brunswick
2.7
8.7
7.9
4.8
2.9
Quebec
1.1
6.5
7.0
4.2
Ontario
2.5
7.7
7.4
Manitoba
2.5
8.0
Saskatchewan
2.7
Alberta
"
N
N
- 23 -
Table 6 Notes:
(1)
The total (or "gross") fertility rate is the sum of the
age-specific fertility rates; when the total fertility
rate is multiplied by five (the width of the age groups)
one obtains the gross reproduction rate (GRR), which,
when larger than
1.05 (1.05 instead of 1.0 because of
mortality before the last age of reproduction), indicates
that the population is reproducing ｩｴｳ･ｬｦｾ
(2)
Rates and mean ages were computed directly from vital
statistics data published yearly by Statistics Canada.
They refer to a yearly average reflecting the whole 19661971 period (and not to the arithmetic mean of the yearly
figures).
All rates are obtained by dividing one fifth
of the number of births observed between 1966 and 1971,
by the arithmetic mean of the 1966 and 1971 relevant female population.
(3)
The observed mean age of fertility has been computed with
the formula:
m= I
(x+ 2 . 5) . p (x) 100
x
where p(x) is the percentage share observed for age x;
the mean age depends thus on the age structure of the
female population.
In order to eliminate the effect of
the age structure, one has also computed a "pure" mean
age, i.e., the mean.age of the fertility schedule, by
using the formula:
-* = \L (x+2.5).r(x)
m
x
\
l
r(x)
x
where r(x) is the age-specific rate.
In order to illustrate the importance of the fertility differentials among provinces, we present in graph I, the pattern of age
specific fertility rates of the two extreme cases (Quebec and Newfoundland) compared to the Canadian average.
The comparison between pure and observed mean ages does not
bring much, the difference between both measures being small; only
in the 4 Maritime provinces is there more than one year difference,
the difference being the largest in Newfoundland, which has also
the lowest mean age of female population (26.4 years).
- 24 -
o
-/0
110
,
-. I
. .1 .
100
ｾ
Ｍ［ｾｬＬＺｊ
":
Ｎｾ
._
I
j
.;
'•.ｾ
ｾ t
.'" ..i,..-_1i "
Ｍｾ
_4
I
ｾＧＱ
i -
I.
. I
ｾ
I
,_..
.
; _.
J" G VJ; FOLlf(.l) L AN:!> ｾ
ｾ:
:
"
"I
9,0
,
.,
,-
....... ....
.
.ｾ f
;
6,0
....
ｾ
,
ｾ
9
o
,
f,
70
o
'f'
ｾｬｊｅ
f
60
.. ｾ
.... '
, ,'wi,
ＧＡｉＨ［Ｌｾ
"
ｾ
t'
_\'
,
I,
.
;
: -/
,
:
\
,
,
I
'
.' l
.
,0
,
f
,
t:
ｾ
,
°t!
ｾＮ '
ＭｾｃｬＧ
'.... I
30
I
' ""0
ＧＯｾ
; I.
',
. I
.
, J,
i '
,.
, \.
: I
ｾ
t','
'\
II
'
O l D
Ｎｾｦ
"
:\
,.
: I
:
'
\
:ｾ
t\
I ,
"/
''\
I
I
.:
t
J'
ｾ
..
Ｇ｜ｾ
'/
'/
15 '
20
25
30 .
35
'\\.'
ＺＢＧｾ
40
, 45
50'
age groups
-_._-- ---------.. _.--- -.-- ---. --
-. -
Graph 1.
I
;
•
• I,
2
"f
•
o ,,/
40
.
•
.. tt.N
.Q. PI',!)A
ｾＭＮ
50
•,
r
. i. ｾＮ｟Ｍ
.;
1
I
r
_ ...
-
Age-specific fertility rates (in J) for Quebec,
Newfoundland and Canada, 1966-1971
- 25 -
3.
Regional Mortality Differentials
It would be rather fastidious to present for each province
the observed death rates at each age group; this would moreover
not be very useful, as mortality differences among provinces are
rather small, except for infant mortality and for mortality at
the older ages.
This is why we will present, in Table 7, for
each sex, only the death rates for the 0-4 and 60-64 age groups,
as well as the total death rate (sum of the age-specific death
rates), the crude death rate and expectation of life at birth.
The mean age at death is almost the same in each province:
it is
77.4 for Canada as a whole, with a range going from 77.2 (in
Prince Edward Island) to 77.6 (in Ontario).
Infant mortality is still quite high in Canada (which has
4.5 deaths per thousand in the 0-4 age group), and the differences
among provinces are quite significant:
for males as well as for
females, the highest rate (in Newfoundland) is 44% higher than the
lowest rate (in Ontario), the range going from 4.5 per thousand tc
6.5 per thousand and from 3.5 per thousand to 5.0 per thousand
respectively.
On the whole, the provinces with the lowest infant death rate
have also among the highest death rates in the older age groups
(as an example, we present the rate for the 60-64 age group). This
is, of course, not quite unexpected:
in regions with high infant
rates, only the fittest do survive, and may be able to benefit
from
a more healthy environment because of the lack of industria-
lization often correlated with high infant mortality.
death rate for the 60-64 age group
The highest
is found in Quebec (which has
also one of the lowest infant mortality rates), where the figures
for males and females respectively are 25.8 and 12.8 per thousand,
which is more than 40% higher than the lowest rates (observed in
Saskatchewan) .
It is striking that the 4 Maritime provinces, plus Quebec
have all infant mortality rates which are higher and life expectancies which are lower than the Canadian average,
ｷｨｩｬｾ
all the
5 provinces west of Quebec have all infant mortality rates which
are below average and life expectancies which are above average,
this being true for males as well as for females.
Table 7.
Provincial mortality differentials 1966-1971
0-4 death rate
(per thousand)
F
M
60-64 death rate
(per thousand)
F
M
Total
death rate
(per thousand)
M
F
Crude
death rate
(per thousand)
F
M
Life expectancy
M
F
Newfoundland
6.5
5.0
21.1
11.8
550.0
422.2
7.2
5.1
69.1
75.7
Prince Edward Island
6.2
4.1
22.8
10.1
534.2
363.2
10.6
7.8
68.8
76.2
Nova Scotia
5.1
3.9
23.9
12.4
569.2
401. 7
9.9
7.3
68.9
76.1
New Brunswick
5.2
4.2
22.5
11.6
556.6
399.0
9.0
6.6
69.0
75.9
Quebec
5.0
4.1
25.8
12.8
606.2
438.8
7.8
5.6
68.6
75.4
Ontario
4.5
3.5
24.7
11.6
583.4
390.3
8.7
6.5
69.5
76.4
Manitoba
5.4
4.0
20.0
10.4
529.6
369.0
9.5
6.6
69.7
76.6
Saskatchewan
5.9
4.6
17.5
9.1
490.5
341.8
9.6
6.1
69.8
76.6
Alberta
4.9
3.9
19.1
9.7
508.2
357.3
7.8
5.0
70.1
76.8
British Colombia
5.0
3.9
21.6
10.6
531.5
361.1
9.8
6.7
69.7
76.7
TOtal Canada
5.0
3.9
23.4
11.5
563.0
392.2
8.6
6.1
69.3
76.2
Source:
Calculation of rates and life expectancy is based on data published in Statistics Canada, Vital
Statistics (Annual), and refers to a yearly average reflecting the whole 1966-1971 period (and not to
the arithmetic mean of the yearly figures) • All rates are obtained by dividing one fifth of the number
of deaths observed between 1966 and 1971 by the arithmetic mean of the 1966 and 1971 relevant population.
N
""
- 27 -
Because of differences in age structure, it is of course, not
very meaningful to compare crude death rates aMong provinces.
a comparison with crude birth rates may be interesting.
But
The three
provinces with the youngest age structure (Newfoundland, Alberta
and Quebec (see below, Section 5) have quite normally the lowest
crude death rates, but Newfoundland's and Alberta's crude birth
rates are the highest among all provinces while Quebec's are the
lowest.
If crude death rates may not be compared between provinces,
" pure " mean ages may be, as they eliminate the effect of age
structure on
ｴｾ･
mortality level; correlatively, a comparison of
observed and pure mean ages permits to measure the impact of the
age structure.
Table 8 presents these various mean ages.
Table 8.
Observed and. pure mean "ages of death
Provinces 1966-1971
Observed
Pure
M
F
M
F
Newfoundland
57.9
61.5
77.6
79.3
Prince Edward Island
64.5
69.8
77.2
78.8
Nova Scotia
63.4
68.4
77.2
79. 1
New Brunswick
62.4
66.9
77.4
79.1
Quebec
59.9
64.2
77.5
79.2
Ontario
63.2
68.0
77.6
79.3
Manitoba
64.6
67.9
77.5
79.1
Saskatchewan
65. 1
66.6
77.4
78.9
Alberta
62.2
64.0
77.6
79.1
British Colombia
64.9
68.0
77.3
78.9
Total Canada
62.5
66.6
77.4
79.1
Source:
see notes at the end of Table 6.
- 28 -
From these results we may conclude that if the age structure is
not taken into account, no significant disparities suhsist:
for
males, the range of the pure mean age goes from 77.2 to 77.6, and
for females from 78.8 to 79.3, while the range of observed mean
age goes respectively from 57.9 (Newfoundland) to 65.1
(Saskatche-
wan) and from 61.5 (Newfoundland) to 69.8 (prince Edward Island).
For males as well as females, the difference is the largest in
Newfoundland and Quebec, reflecting their younger age structure,
resulting from their previous high fertility rates.
Finally, despite all these differences, the number of years
a baby born in 1966-1971 may expect to live does not vary
much:
the range goes from 68.8 to 70.1 for males and from 75.4
to 76.8 for females, the lowest life expectancy being observed in
Quebec and the highest in Alberta.
4.
REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALS
It is obviously impossible to analyse here all migration rates,
by age and sex for each origin-destination flow (these data are
presented in the Appendix).Considering that the age and sex structure of these rates is rather similar for all flows, we will analyze
only total (i.e. for all ages and sexes) migration rates between
provinces.
We will, however, also present the mean age for each
migration flow and discuss the migration rates by age and sex for
all flows.
(In the next chapter, when constructing the multiregion-
al life table, we will of course introduce a disaggregation by age
and sex).
From Table 9 it is seen that, as far as total migration rates
are concerned, provinces could be classified in 3 groups.
(a)
Three provinces have a small rate of total out-migration: two
of them (Ontario and British Columbia) are also the main beneficiaries of inter-provincial migration (see Table 5, column
3) while the third one (Quebec) is also (with Saskatchewan) the
main loser from inter-provincial migration.
The low rates
of Ontario and British Columbia are mainly due to their favorable economic situation (for British Columbia, its peripheral location may also play a role) while in the case of Quebec
Table 9.
Total migration rates
ｾ
NFD
PEl
NS
Newfoundland
---
0.2
1.7
Prince Edward Island
0.5
---
Nova Scotia
0.8
(per thousand) between provinces 1966-1971
QUE
ONT
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC
TOTAL
0.8
1.0
8.4
0.3
O. 1
0.4
0.7
1·3.5
4.6
2.9
1.4
7.7
0.6
0.3
1.1
1. 3
20.3
0.6
---
2.4
1.4
7.8
0.5
0.2
1.0
1.8
16.5
0.4
0.5
3.2
---
3. 1
7.0
0.5
0.2
0.8
1.2
16.9
O. 1
0.0
0.2
0.4
---
3.9
0.2
O. 1
0.3
0.7
5.9
Ontario
0.2
o. 1
0.6
0.4
1.6
---
0.6
0.2
0.7
1.5
6.0
Manitoba
O. 1
O. 1
0.5
0.3
1.1
5.7
---
2.4
4.2
6-.3
20.7
Saskatchewan
0.0
0.0
0.2
O. 1
0.4
2.9
4. 1
---
10.6
7.4
25.8
Alberta
O. 1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.5
2.7
1.1
1.7
---
8.9
15.5
British Columbia
o. 1
O. 1
0.3
O. 1
0.5
2.4
0.7
0.7
3.2
---
8.2
'New Brunswick
.
Quebec
Source:
ｭｾ
Migration rates are obtained by dividing one fifth of the 1966-1971 migrants enumerated at the 1971
census, by the arithmetic mean of the population enumerated in 1966 and 1971 in the province of
origin. Because of rounding,the total out-migration rate is not necessarily equal to the sum of
the destination-specific rates.
IV
IJ:)
- 30 -
(which is in a relatively poor economic condition), the low
rate of out-migration may be explained by cultural heterogeneity.
The fact that Quebec is 80% French speaking and
that there are only small French speaking minorities in the
other provinces, constitutes a formidable cultural barrier
which is difficult to overcome.
Quebec's only relatively
large migration rate is with Ontario, and this is for a
large part the reflection of an urban growth phenomenon,
(Canada's capital city, Ottawa, is located on the border between Ontario and Quebec, but on Ontario's side).
All pro-
vinces east of Ontario have their highest out-migration rates
with this province, and all provinces west of Ontario have
their second highest rate with Ontario:
being centrally lo-
cated and economically dominant, this province is able to
attract large numbers of migrants from allover Canada.
Actually, 37% of the migrants who left a province other than
Ontario went to Ontario.
(b)
Four provinces have middle range out-migration rates:
three
of the four Maritime provinces are in this group, and they
are also provinces of net out-migration:
Newfoundland (13.5
per thousand), Nova Scotia (16.5 per thousand) and New
Brunswick (16.9 per thousand).
The fourth province in
this middle range group is the Prairie province of Alberta,
which, on the contrary, is gaining from interprovincial
migration.
The relatively low rate of Newfoundland island
(which is, from the economic point of view, a depressed
area, with a very high unemployment rate), may be explained
by its location in the Atlantic Ocean, far from the main
economic centers of Canda.
to move
ｾ｡ｳ
In such a case, once the decision
been made, distance is not a major factor in the
choice of destination; this is why it is not surprising to
find that almost two-thirds of Newfoundland's out-migrants
went to Ontario, more or less 3,000 kilometers away.
Ontario
is also the main destination of the migrants from Nova Scotia
and New Brunswick (almost half of them went to Ontario) and it
attracts a sizable number of out-migrants from Alberta, corning
second only to British Columbia which received almost 60% of
Alberta's out-migrants.
-
(c)
31 -
Finally, three provinces have relatively high out-migration
rates.
All three of them have a level of economic develop-
ment which is well below average, and are located so as to
make it easier for potential out-migrants to actualize their
propensity to leave:
Prince Edward Island is a tiny island
with an economy based on fishing, located close to Nova
Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, while Manitoba and
Saskatchewan are both agricultural regions which are located
between Canada's two main poles of economic growth, Ontario
on one side and Alberta-British Columbia on the other side.
Instead of analyzing these "crude" out-migration rates (which
are obtained by dividing the total number of out-Migrants by the
total population, in the same way as the "crude" birth rate is
obtained by dividing the total number of births by the total
population),
one may calculate "gross" migration rates by summing
the age-specific migration rates, and multiplying this sum by five
(the width of the age-groups) to obtain (similarly to the gross
reproduction rate) what has been called the "gross migraproduction
rate"
(GMR), which shows the number of out-migrations per person,
in the absence of death.
Table 10 presents, for each migration
flow and for the total out-migration of each province, the result
of these calculations.
It is clear that Ontario occupies a dominant position in the
inter-provincial migration pattern:
its GMR to each province of
destination is always much lower than the one of the corresponding
counter-flow.
The reverse
ｾ
true for Prince Edward Island's GMR's.
The two Prairie provinces have the highest expected number of interprovincial out-migratiomper person.
A person born in Saskatchewan
(which has also one of the highest gross fertility rates), is even
expected to leave his province twice over his entire life span.
For reasons already mentioned, it is not surprising that a person
born in Prince Edward Island is also expected to leave his province
more than once.
At the other end, we find the smallest number of
out-migrations
per person in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia,
which again is not unexpected.
These three provinces are the only
three provinces where the GMR is below the Canadian average (0.72);
ｾ
Table 10.
Gross migraproduction rates between provinces 1966-1971
NFD
PEl
NS
NB
QUE
ONT
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC
--
0.01
O. 12
0.06
0.08
0.58
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.96
Prince Edward Island
0.04
--
0.35
0.22
0.10
0.56
0.04
0.02
0.08
0.10
1. 50
Nova Scotia
0.06
0.05
--
O. 17
0.10
0.55
0.03
0.01
0.07
o. 13
1. 18
New Brunswick
0.03
0.04
0.24
--
0.23
0.49
0.04
0.01
0.06
0.09
1. 23
Quebec
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.03
--
0.29
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.05
0.44
Ontario
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.03
O. 12
--
0.04
0.02
0.05
O. 12
0.44
Manitoba
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.08
0.42
--
O. 17
0.30
0.52
1. 56
, 0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.22
0.30
--
0.78
0.61
1 .'97
Alberta
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.04
o. 19
0.08
O. 12
--
0.74
1. 20
British Columbia
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.04
O. 18
0.06
0.06
0.24
--
0.60
FROM:
Newfoundland
Saskatchewan
Source:
TOTAL
The gross migraproductin rate is obtained by summing the age-specific out-migration rates and multiplying the result by five (the width of the age group); this rate represents the number of out-migrations a person should make over his entire life span if he was not submitted to mortality.
W
l\J
- 33 -
all other provinces have an expected number of out-migrations
per person equal or superior to one.
These GMR's show therefore,
the high geographical mobility of the Canadian population,.even
over such large distances as those which exist between provinces.
(As a point of reference, let us mention that the lowest GMR in
Canada--0.44 for Ontario-- is almost equal to the highest GMR
in Bulgaria--0.46 for the North-West region, with Canadian distances very much larger indeed) .13
As far as mean age of migration is concerned, table 11 reveals wide disparities among provinces, for total migration as
well as for the out-migration flows
province.
originating from a given
Because of the age selectivity of migration, and the
significant
ｰｲｾｶｩｮ｣ｾ｡ｬ
disparities in
ｴｨｾ
age structure (see
below, next section of this chapter), it is, of course, not surprising to find a considerable difference between pure and observed
mean age:
on the whole, this difference represents 10 years
(observed mean age of all inter-provincial migrants is 26 years,
but the pure mean age is 36).
The lowest "pure" mean age of migration (about 30 years) are
'those of the out-migrants from the four
ｾＱ｡ｲｩｴ ｭ･
provinces, while
the highest are those of Quebec (36) and Alberta (38).
It is in-
teresting to note that on the matrix of table 11, the highest
mean ages are generally close to the diagonal:
the mean age of
migration seems to be higher for short distances than for long distances.
rule:
There is, however, one main exception to this apparent
British Columbia receives among the oldest migrants from
every province of origin, and more precisely, from all provinces west of the Maritimes, which all seem
to send their
"oldest" migrants to the west coast; this could be related to retirement.
13 See D. Ph 1. 1 lPOV,
.
M.19ratlon
.
.
an d Sett 1 emen t 'ln Bu1 garla.
ment and Planning, 1978.
Environ-
ｾ
Table 11.
Mean age of interprovincial migration flows 1966-1971
NFD
PEl
NS
---
29
(43)
Prince Edward Island
25
(30)
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
NB
QUE
ONT
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC
TOTAL
23
(31 )
24
(32)
25
(35)
23
(30)
23
(31 )
26
(32)
25
(32)
24
(34)
23
(31 )
---
25
( 32)
25
(31 )
22
(26)
23
(28)
22
(27)
27
(38)
25
(30)
26
(31 )
24
(30)
24
(31 )
26
(34)
--
--
25
(31 )
23
(30)
24
(30)
23
(27)
22
(26 )
24
(28)
25
(30)
24
(30)
22
(27)
27
(36)
26
(34)
---
24
(32)
24
(30)
23
(29 )
23
(29)
23
(29)
25
(32)
24
(31 )
Quebec
24
(30)
28
(40)
I (35)
26
26
(37)
---
27
(36)
26
(33)
27
( 37)
25
(32)
29
(40)
27
(36)
Ontario
24
( 31 )
25
(32)
25
(31)
24
( 31 )
25
(32)
---
26
(34)
26
(34)
25
( 31)
29
(37)
26
(33)
Manitoba
22
(25)
23
(30)
22
(26 )
23
(27)
26
(31)
26
(32)
--
--
25
(32)
25
( 31 )
30
(39)
27
(34)
Saskatchewan
26
(32)
25
(30)
23
(28)
24
(31 )
26
(33)
26
(31 )
25
(31 )
---
24
(30 )
29
(38 )
26
(33 )
Alberta
26
(31 )
23
(30)
23
(29)
24
(31 )
26
(32)
26
(33)
24
(31 )
25
(34 )
--
--
29
(41 )
27
(38)
British Columbia
24
(29)
23
(28)
24
(30)
26
(31 )
27
(32)
26
(32)
26
(33)
29
(38)
26
(32)
---
26
(33)
FROM:
Newfoundland
w
-'='
- 35 -
Table 11 note:
The figures without brackets refer to observed mean
ages, while the figures between brackets refer to the
pure mean age of migration (i.e. excluding the effect
of the age structure).
Being based on census data,
the "observed" mean age does however, not correspond
to the mean age at the moment of migration, but is
the mean age of the migrant at the moment of the census; if we assume a uniform distribution of the number of migrants over the census period, about 2,5 years
should be subtracted in order to obtain an estimate
of the mean age at migration. See also note 3 at the
end of Table 6.
Finally, we present in graph II, the age structure of all
interprovincial migrants.
are
As expected, the rates for females
close to those of males, with females having slightly,
higher rates until the 20-24 age group (the higher rate at this
age could be partially explained by nuptiality, but we doubt
this would be of any significance for interprovincial migration);
all other age groups have lower rates for females, except for
the 55-74 age groups (this could be related to widowship), but
there are at least two features of the age profile which are
not quite in conformity with the "standard" profile as obtained
in other countries.
l
The first, and less .significant, difference to be mentioned
is the increase in the out-migration rate
at the older ages:
one should expect a small peak at the 65-69 age group, followed
by a slight decrease of the rate
for the subsequent age groups,
but it seems to be the reverse in Canada.
One should, however,
remember that in the absence of any age disaggregation of migration flows for the population aged 65 years and over, one has
to estimate the number of migrants in each age group older than
65 years.
This is why we prefer to disregard this peculiarity
of the Canadian age profile.
ISee A. Rogers, The Formal Demography of Migration and Redistribution: Measurement and Dynamics, IIASA, 1978, p.
-
36 -
The second particular feature of the curve seems to be more
worthwhile of investigation.
Graph II shows indeed that the out-
migration rate for the 0-4 age group is lower than the one observed for the 5-9 age group, a feature which does not conform to
what we may expect from the "standard" profile obtained in most
other countries.
ror.
Again, this may be due to an
estimation er-
Indeed, as we already mentioned, the use of census data on
migration (data obtained from the question "where did you live
five years ago?") did not allow us to obtain data directly on
migration for the 0-4 age group, so that for this age group we
had to use data obtained from a comparison between the place of
residence at the census date and the place of birth.
It could
be that the percentage of under-enumeration is not the same for
the migration question and for the place of birth question, but
if this was the case, the rates for the 0-4 age group should be
even lower compared to
ｾｨ･
rates for the 5-9 age group,
｢･｣｡ｵｾ･
it is quite probable that people will be more able to answer a
question on place of birth, than a question on place of previous
residence.
One possible explanation is that the lower rates for the
0-4 age group is the result of a lower mobility over large distances for families with small children.
It has to be remem-
bered that interprovincial migration flows in Canada usually
imply very large distances.
In order to see whether migration
distance could have an impact on the shape of the age profile,
we chose to analyze the age profile of the migration flows between two provinces which are contiguous, relatively equal as
far as area and population are concerned, and for which the number of migrants in each age group is large enough to produce
significant results.
fully
The two flows which meet the most success-
these criteria are those between Ontario and Quebec
(these two flows represent 18 percent of all interprovincial migrants); the age profile (for males only) of these two flows
has been added to graph II.
Results are somewhat contradictory:
the rate for the 0-4
age group is in fact higher than the rate of the subsequent
younger age groups-as far as migration from Ontario to Quebec
-
37 -
°/00
20
.
;
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
\
\
9
,
"\.\
S
r-iaies
:\
F:ernales
\
.. ...
7
i
ｾ
..
ｾ
t
.....
"I,
. .,
.
'\
i
6
,
,
i
\
t··
; _.,
.,
I
,
Ｇｾ ,
5
.
"
.,
I,
I.
"
｟ｾ
.
.;
•
ｾ
•
.....
. ,
II
ＮｾＭ ｟Ｎ ＧＢ［
'"
l '
•
:
I
"",,"
....
ｾ
•
•••
I
1',.
3·
2
... -;.
_1 ..
!
,.
!
Ｍｴ Ｚ Ｍｾ ｴＮ ［ ＮＭｴ ｉ
o
r-' l'
: .-, ....
I
5-,10
I'
Graph II.
ﾷｦＭ ｾ
.
15
.
20
J.'
I
--+---'-+-;(·_·:...."1
l
25
30
35 ' 40 . 45
ｾ ＺＭ［
Ｍ ＫＧ ＮｦﾷＭ ｴｬＭ ｲ Ｎ ［ Ｍ ｴｬ Ｍｾ ﾷｲ
; ..
NT. -Qll"
ｏＭＺ ｾ ［
ｾ
50
55
60
65
ｾ
70. 75 : 8'0 : 85+: 'age
l __. i.- . _ I J .1. f... • .; .
Interprovincial migration rates (per thousand)
by age and sex, 1966-1971
- 37a -
is concerned, but this is not true for the flow in the reverse
direction.
Moreover, the general shape of the curve for these
two flows is not quite similar to the one obtained for all interprovincial flows; particularly the decrease in the out-migration
rate after 25-29 years, is much slower for these flows than for
all interprovincial migration flows.
The main lesson to be de-
rived from this analysis is that one should be very cautious
when adopting a "standard" age profile:
there are very many
specific conditions which could produce an age profile different
from the one.which is valid for the whole population of migrants.
5.
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE AGE-SEX STRUCTURE
As a result of the long-run evolution of fertility, mortal-
ity and migration, briefly described in chapter I, and of the
current pattern of fertility, mortality and migration, as analyzed in the previous sections of this chapter, each province
has inherited in 1966-1971 a particular age-sex structure; this
final section of chapter II will be devoted to the analysis of
this structure (the regional structure of the total,Canadian
population has already been described in chapter I).
Table 12 presents, for each province and for the whole population of Canada, the percentage of the 0-19, 20-64 and 65 and
over age groups, as well as the mean observed age of the total
population; the "rate of masculinity"
total population)
(percentage of males in
is not significantly different among provinces
(the rate varies between 50% and 51%) and is, therefore, not
presented.
Percentages of broad age groups are, of course, rather
rough measures of the age structure of a population, but they
may give a first idea of the age profile of the population.
If
one defines as "young" a population which has a relatively large
percentage of its population in the 0-19 age group, and similarly, as "old" a population which has a relatively large percentage in the 65 and over age group, then it appears that the
"youngest" populations are not always the less "oldest".
- 38 -
Table 12.
Age structure and mean age of the population
of each province 1966-1971.
% 0-19
%20-64
%65+
Mean age
Newfoundland
50
44
26.H
Prince Edward Island
43
46
fi
11
Nova Scotia
42
49
9
30.6
New Brunswick
45
47
8
29.4
Quebec
42
52
6
29.2
Ontario
39
53
8
31 .0
Manitoba
40
51
9
31.5
Saskatchewan
42
48
10
31.3
Alberta
43
50
7
29.2
British Columbia
38
53
9
31.9
Canada
41
51
8
30.8
31.0
Prince Edward Island for instance has the third largest percentage of its population in the 0-19 age group, but has the highest percentage in the "old age" group; the same is true for
Saskatchewan.
Both provinces are regions of heavy out-migration,
as we have mentioned, and this should explain to a great extent
the higher percentage of older people.
On the other hand, Ontario, which is the main beneficiary
of migration (international as well as internal), has a relatively small percentage of young people as well as old people:
in-
migrants and particularly immigrants are mostly in the 20-64 age
group.
On the whole, if we consider simultaneously the percen-
tage of "young" and "old" age groups, one may state that
- 39 -
Newfoundland is by far the youngest province, followed by Alberta
and New Brunswick, while the Prairie provinces (which are regions
of heavy out-migration) and British Columbia (where fertility is
low and the mean age
a
in-migration relatively high), are the
three "oldest" provirices,
Correlatively to these differences
in the percentages of
"young" and "old" age groups, there are significant differences
among provinces in the percentage of the "supporting" age groups
(20-64).
All Maritime provinces, plus Saskatchewan, have a per-
centage of "supporting" population
erage:
well below the Canadian av-
they are all regions of important and continuous net out-
migration, and age selectivity of migration has undoubtedly shown
its effects.
At the other side, the provinces of Ontario,
British Columbia and Quebec have the highest percentages of population in the 20-64 age group:
they are also the provinces with
the lowest fertility rate and they are the main beneficiaries of
international and internal migration (except for Quebec which
benefits only from international migration).
Canada being an immigrant country, where fertility was until
recently, relatively high and mortality relatively low, it is not
surprising to find that its population is young compared to other
"economically advanced" countries:
almost half of the population
is less than 25 years old, and the mean age is 31, with no major
disparities in the mean age among provinces (except for Newfoundland, which has a markedly lower mean age).
- 40 -
CHAPTER III - MULTlREGIONAL ANALYSIS
In this chapter, we present the main results obtained by
applying the multiregional model and programs developed at IIASA
by A. Rogers and F. Willekens, to the Canadian data presented
and analyzed in the previous chapter.
The three most important
outputs of this analysis are the multiregional life table (sec,tion A), the population projection and the stable equivalent
population (section B) and some measures of the role of fertility and migration in population redistribution
A.
ｾｳ･｣ｴｩｯｮ
C),
THE MULTIREGIONAL LIFE TABLE
Using the above described data on the number of deaths in
each province, by age and sex, and on the number of surviving
(census) migrants to each province of destination from each province of origin, also disaggregated by age group and sex, one is
able to compute age-sex specific probabilities of dying and migrating.
These probabilities allow us to determine the number
of survivors, deaths and migrations expected at each age in each
region, for a given set of regional radices (here put equal to
100,000), i.e., the hypothetical multiregional cohort.
From this, we may compute the number of years lived in each
region by the initial cohort, the survivorship proportions and
the life expectancies by place of residence.
1.
The Life History of the Birth Cohort
It would obviously be a very tedious task to analyze all
probabilities of dying and migrating (between all provinces) and
the corresponding expected number of survivors at each age group
and for each sex (the complete set of probabilities and numbers
of survivors is, however, presented in the Appendix).
We will
therefore, only present (in table 13), the probabilities that an
individual born in a particular province will still be there at
exact age 20 (which could be considered as the age of entry
- 41 -
in the labor market), at exact age 35 (because it is in the 2035 age span that mobility is the highest), and at exact age 65
(retirement age at least for males).
This is a way to see
whether a baby born in a given province will spend all his "active"
(Le. "working") life in his province of birth.
The figures of table 13 show once more how mobile the Cana-
dian population may be.
Some provinces (Saskatchewan, Manitoba
and Prince Edward Island) will have lost one third or more of
their new-born babies even before they enter the labor market;
in other words, one third. of these new-born
｢｡ｾｩ･ｳ
ｷｾｬ
ｨ｡ｶｾ
ｾｯ
be supported for at most 20 years by a local "active" (20-65 years
old) population which, as we have seen, is relatively smaller
than in the other provinces (precisely because of out-migration)
and they will never contribute to the labor force of their province of birth.
But things are even worse if we consider what
happens between the ages 20 and 35:
-half of those who re-
mained until 20 will leave the province before reaching 35 (in
Manitoba however, only 40% will have left), so that finally
only 20% (in Saskatchewan, 15%), of those born in these provinces will still be there at age 65.
At the other extreme, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec and
Bl;"itish Columbia are able to retain
a relatively large part of
their newborn babies, so that more than half of them will still
reside in their province of birth by age 65.
For Ontario and
British Columbia, this is mainly due to a favorable economic
situation, while the relative spatial inertia of people born in
Quebec is probably to be explained less by economic conditions
(which are rather poor), than by cultural factors.
Not surprisingly,
ｴｨ･｟ｰｲｯ｢｡ ｩｬ ｴｩｾｳ
of surviving in the pro-
vince of birth are always higher for females than for males, reｾ
--
.
fleeting the lower spatial mobility of women and their higher
probabilities of survival.
The difference is, however, particu-
larly high in the case of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia;
this could be related to the fact that the economic structure of
these provinces provides relatively more jobs for women, and to
- 42 -
the fact that, being provinces of heavy international immigration, with a relatively high "rate of masculinity", women born
in these regions have a higher probability to find a partner in
their province of birth.
Table 13.
Probabilities (in %) of surviving at exact ages
20, 35 and 65 in the province of birth.
At age 20
Males
At age 35
Females
l-1ales
Females
At age 65
Males
Females
Newfoundland
78
79
48
51
29
34
Prince Edward Island
67
69
32
33
17
20
Nova Scotia
71
71
42
44
24
28
New Brunswick
72
72
42
43
23
28
Quebec
87
88
74
77
47
57
ontario
86
87
74
77
49
60
Manitoba
65
66
38
39
19
23
saskatchewan
61
61
27
28
14
16
Alberta
73
74
53
54
30
34
British Columbia
83
84
66
68
45
54
2.
The Life Expectancies
One of the most useful products of the multiregional.life
table is undoubtedly the disaggregation of life expectancy (at any
ｾｱ･Ｉ
by province of residence.
with the multiregional life table
one can calculate the number of years to be lived in every possible region of residence, for a person of a certain age presently residing in a given region, or for a baby to be born in a
given region.
Only the latter, i.e., the disaggregation of life
expectancy at birth will be analyzed, as the pattern described
in the previous section for ages 20-35-65 is quite similar to the
one for life expectancy at these ages.
Table 14 presents for
- 43 -
each province of birth
the expectation of life in each province
of residence, for each sex separately.
As we have already shown, the total number of years a newborn baby may expect to live is very similar among provinces of
birth.
There are, however, striking differences in. the share of
this total life expectancy which will be spent in the province
of birth.
For males, as well as females, this share may vary by
as much as 100% from one province to another:
babies born in
Saskatchewan will spend only about 40% of their life in this province, while babies born in Quebec and Ontario may expect to live
about 80% in their province of birth.
The figures illustrate,
once more, the high mobility over long distances of Canada's popｾｬ｡ｴｩｯｮＮ
As a reference mark, we could compare with the figures
obtained by D. Philipov for Bulgaria, where, even if the regions
are of a much smaller area than Canada's provinces, the lowest
percentage of life expectancy to be spent in the region of birth
is 74%, a figure which would put a province of Canada as one of
the most spatially inert.
1
Finally, it seems worthwhile to mention that every baby boy
born in any province east of Quebec or in Manitoba, will spend
at least 10 years (in most cases, about 15 years) in Ontario; for
baby girls, the corresponding figures are even higher:
from 12 to 18.
they vary
If all provinces of birth are considered, one may
state that the "average" boy born out of Ontario will spend at
least 6 years in this province - 7 years for females.
nomic impact of such
on
phenomenon
on these provinces of birth
one side, and on Ontario on the other side, ds of course, far
from neglig ible.
1
a
The eco-
D. Philipov, op.cit.
Table 14A.
Life Expectancies at b'irth, by province of residence.
MALES
PROVINCE OF RESIDENCE:
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC
TOTAL
15.6
0.7
0.4
1.1
2.4
69. 1
3.2
15.2
1.1
0.5
2. 1
3.5
68.8
3.2
3.3
14.6
1.0
0.5
2.2
4.4
68.9
4.0
37.6
5.6
13.6
0.9
0.4
1.9
3.4
69.0
O. 1
0.6
0.7
55.3
8.3
0.4
0.2
0.9
1.9
68.6
0.5
0.2
1.2
0.8
3.6
56. 1
1.0
0.5
1.8
3.8
69.5
Manitoba
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.6
2.4
10.5
34.4
2.7
6.8
11.0
69.7
Saskatchewan
0.2
o. 1
0.6
0.4
1.4
7.0
4.4
29.4
13. 1
13.2
69.8
Alberta
0.2
O. 1
0.7
0.4
1.4
6.3
1.9
2.0
43.0
14.2
70. 1
British Columbia
0.2
o. 1
0.6
0.4
1.5
5.9
1.4
1.2
5.8
52.7
69.7
PROVINCE OF BIRTH:
NFD
PEl
Newfoundland
42.0
Prince Edward Island
NS
NB
QUE
ONT
0.3
2.5
1.4
2.7
1.0
32.5
5.7
4.0
Nova Scotia
1.2
0.7
37.9
New Brunswick
0.8
0.6
Quebec
0.2
qntario
+=
+=
Table 14B.
Life Expectancies at birth, by province of residence.
FEMALES
PROVINCE OF RESIDENCE:
-
PROVINCE OF BIRTH:
NFD
Newfoundland
45.3
Prince Edward Island
SAS
TOTAL
0.3
2.8
1.5
3.0
17.8
0.8
0.3
1.3
2.7
75.7
0.9
34.8
6•1
3.9
4.2
17.3
1.1
0.6
2.8
4.5
76.2
Nova Scotia
1.3
0.8
40.4
3.5
4.0
17.0
1.1
0.5
2.5
5. 1
76. 1
New Brunswick
0.8
0.7
4.6
40. 1
6.9
15.4
1.0
0.4
2. 1
3.9
75.9
Quebec
0.2
O. 1
0.6
0.8
60.5
9.5
0.4
0.2
0.9
2. 1
75.4
Ontario
0.4
0.2
1.2
0.9
4. 1
61.9
1.1
0.5
L9
4.2
76.4
Manitoba
0.2
0.2
1.0
0.7
2.9
12.3
36.5
2.9
7.4
12.6
76.6
Saskatchewan
0.2
O. 1
0.6
0.4
1.6
8. 1
4.9
30.7
14.7
15.4
76.6
Alberta
0.2
O. 1
0.7
0.4
1.7
7.2
2.0
2.3
45.6
16.7
76.8
British Columbia
0.2
O. 1
0.7
0.4
1.7
7.0
1•5
1 .2
6.4
57.6
76.7
Note:
MAN
BC
NB
QUE
ONT
ALB
NS
PEl
Because of rounding, the total life expectancy may not be exactly equal to the
sum of the life-expectancies in each province of residence.
ｾ
(JI
-
B.
46 -
POPULATION PROJECTION AND STABILITY
It is well known that if a population is exposed to an un-
changing regime of fertility, mortality and interregional migration, it will ultimately increase at a constant rate of
｡ｮｾ
ｾｲｯｷｴｨ
reach a stable age-sex structure and a stable regional dis-
tribution.
This stable structure and distribution are indepen-
dent from the initial structure and distributbn and are a function only of the regime of fertility, mortality and migration. l
Besides analyzing fue stable equivalent of the 1966-1971 population, we will also briefly discuss the time
sults obtained for three intermediate years:
pattern and the re1976
(because of
the possibility of comparing with the 1976 census data), 2001
(because this year is the end-year of the population projections
made by Statistics Canada), and 2021
(because this year - or one
close to this - has been chosen as a reference Mark for all IIASA
comparative studies).2
Table 15 presents, for these three years and for the stable
eqtiivalent of the 1966-1971 population, as well as for 1971
ｾｨ･
initial year of projection), the following characteristics:
total population in absolute numbers,provincial share, rate of
growth of population, mean age of population, percentage of population less than 20 years old and percentage of population aged
65 and over.
1.
In interpreting the figures produced in table 15, it
should be emphasized that they are no more than the
result of a pure projection, and by no way may be considered as a forecast of the future evolution of the
population of Canada and its provinces.
Yet it may be
lThis is why a critical analysis of the data used in the projection is so important (see section A of chapter 2).
In order to
see the sensitivity of the results with respect to the data used
one may compare the results presented in this paper with those
obtained by C. Dionne and M. Termote in The Inteppegional Redistpibution of the Population of Canada, op.cit., see also section
C of this chapter.
ｾａ｣ｴｵ｡ｬ ｹＬ
because projection has been made with 1966-1971 ·data,
with rates computed on the arithmetic mean of the 1966 and 1971
populations, one should subtract two and a half years from the
years which have been chosen as a reference mark.
- 47 -
Table 15.
Population projection and stable equivalent.
Some characteristics of the total population
NFD
PEr
NS
NB
QUE
ONT
MAN
SAS
ALB
Be
CAN
1971
508
110
773
626 5,904
7,332
976
941 1,546 2,029
20,743
ABSOLUTE
1976
543
115
805
656 6,134
7,801
996
918 1,690 2,272
21,929
NUMBERS
2001
768
147 1,019
844 7,312 10,535 1,136
855 2,537 3,715
28,868
(in '000)
2021
978
176 1,200
993 7,845 12,691 1,261
854 3,226 4,964
34,188
391 2,136 3,681
18,116
STAB. 1,171
SHARE
(in %)
GROWTH RATE
(over 5 years)
(in %)
98
670
497 1,991
6,863
. 618
1971
2.4
0.5
3.7
3.0
28.5
35.3
4.7
4.6
7.5
9.8
100.0
1976
2.5
0.5
3.7
3.0
28.0
35.6
4.5
4.2
7.7
10.3
100.0
2001
2.7
0.5
3.5
2.9
25.3
36.5
3.9
3.0
8.8
12.9
100.0
2021
2.9
0.5
3.5
2.9
23.0
37.1
3.7
2.5
9.4
14.5
100.0
STAB.
6.5
0.5
3.7
2.7
11.0
37.9
3.4
2.2
11.8
20.3
100.0
71-76
6.9
4.2
4.3
4.8
3·.9
6.4
2.1 0.98
9.3
12.0
5.7
96-01
6.4
4.8
4.2
4.4
2.3
5.1
2.2 0.99
6.8
8.5
16-21
6.1
4.5
4.1
4.0
1.5
4.4
2.8 1.01
5.7
6.9
4.1
STAB.
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0 4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
!
I
4.6
1971
26.4 31.0
30.6 29.4
29.2
31.0
31.5 31.3
29.2
31.9
30.3
1976
27.0 31.5
31.2 30.2
30.5
31.7
32.1 32.3
29.9
32.6
31.2
2001
27.8 32.0
32.5 31.7
34.2
33.6
33.0 33.7
31. 3
34.4
33.4
2021
28.4 33.0
33.6 33.0
36.2
34.7
33.6 33.7
33.4
35.7
34.6
STAB.
28.5 33.4
33.7 33.2
35.8
34.9
33.7 33.8
33.0
36.3
34.5
1971
50.0 43.4
42.1 44.8
41. 7
39.0
39.9 41.7
42.6
38.0
40.7
% < 20
1976
47.8 41. 3
39.7 41.8
38.2
37.1
37.9 39.8
40.5
36.1
38.2
YEARS
2001
45.9 38.8
36.3 38.0
32.0
33.6
35.8 37.5
37.1
32.4
34.1
OLD
2021
44.8 37.1
34.7 36.2
29.6
32.1
33.9 36.7
35.7
30.8
32.5
STAB.
45.0 36.8
34.7 36.0
30.0
32.0
34.4 36.4
35.4
30.5
33.1
1971
6.0 10.9
9.0
8.4
6.5
8.3
9.8
7.2
9.5
7.9
1976
6.3 11.0
9.3
8.7
7.2
8.7
10.1 10.8
7.5
9.7
8.4
2001
7.2 10.6
10.1
9.6
10.1
10.5
11. 2 13.9
8.5
11.2
10.3
2021
7.6 11.4
11.0 10.7
12.6
11.4
11.1 12.6
9.5
12.4
11.5
STAB.
8.3 12.5
11. 7 11.5
12.4
12.2
11. 7 12.8
10.9
14.3
12.2
MEAN
AGE
% 65
YEARS
AND
OVER
9.5
-
48 -
worthwile to compare our projection for 1976 with the results
of the 1976 census.
In order to do this, we have, however, to
take the average of the 1971 and 1976 census figures, because
our projection is based on the average of the 1966 and 1971
population census figures.
Table 16 shows the results of this
comparison, and presents estimates of net international
ｭｩｾｲ｡ｴｩｯｮＬ
because this was excluded from the projection.
It is rather amazing to see how close the projected figures
are to the enumerated figures: in 7 of the 10 provinces the
difference is inferior to 10.000, and the largest difference
does not represent more than 2.3% of the concerned population.
The only provinces from which the difference is considerable
(in absolute numbers) are those which are the main beneficiaries
of
international migration, which has been excluded from our
projeGtion procedure: this
British Columbia.
ｩｳｾ･
case for Ontario, Alberta and
It may therefore be concluded that for a
short term (5 years) period, the multi-regional population
projection model could also be useful as a forecasting model,
at least if abstraction is made of international migration
Ｈｷｨｾ｣ｨ
has to be considered separately anyway, because of its
cyclical and political characteristics).
This conclusion is,
however, valid only for total population.
Indeed, international migration does not explain all of the
difference between enumerated and projected population.
These
usually small differences refer only to total population, but
they are not valid for each age group.
More particularly,
significant differences between the enumerated population
and the projected population do exist in each province for
the 0-4 age group, the projected figure being higher by about
10% in all cases; this reflects of course the decline in fertility which took place during the period of projection.
On the
other hand, the projected figures are always smaller than the
enumerated figures, for all provinces and for each of the 4
five years age-groups between 20 and 39; this reflects probably for a large part the impact of international migration,
but is of course also due to a change in the regime of inter-
Table 16.
Comparison between projected and observed figures, 1971-1976.
Enumerated population Difference between Net international
migration 1971-1976
(in ' 000) average
enumerated and
1971-1976
projected ('000)
('000)
Newfoundland
5 LI a
-3
-8
Prince Edward Island
115
a
a
Nova Scotia
809
4
4
New Brunswick
656
a
3
Quebec
6.131
-3
68
Ontaria
7.984
183
361
1 . 005
9
27
924
6
4
Alberta
1 .733
43
54
British Columbia
2.326
54
109
22.280
351
624
Monitoba
Saskatchewan
TOTAL CANADA
Sources:,
Statistics Canada, 1971 and 1976 Census, and International and Interprovincial Migration in Canada
1961-1962 to 1975-1976, Catalogue 91-208, July 1977, pp. 41-42.
+="
ｾ
- 50 -
ｰｾ｣ｶｩｮ｡ｬ
migration.
The under-estimation of the population
in the 20-39 age group is much larger (in absolute numbers)
than the over-estimation of the population in the 0-4 age
group; this explains for a large part the fact that net international migration (column 3 of table 16) is markedly larger
than the difference between enumerated population and projected
,
I
population (column 2 of table 16) in the provinces for which
the problem is significant (Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and
British Columbia).
We have thus to conclude that if the
multi-regional projection model did produce good results
in forecasting the growth of the total population over a
short period (5 years), it did perform poorly for forecasting
the changes in the age structure of this population.
It may be of some interest to compare qlso the results qf the
projection for the year 2001 obtained respectively by the multiregional model developed by Rogers and Willekens, with the results
obtained by Statistics Canada for the same year of projection,
but by applying a completely different approach.
1
Actually,
Statistics Canada did offer a large number of projections, each
projection being characterized by a different set of assumptions
on the anticipated evolution of the components of demographic
growth.
Among the set of assumptions considered as "the most
probable", we chose the one based on the assumption of a low
fertility, a gross reproduction rate of 0.9 instead of the 1.2
figure observed in 1966-1971, a relatively small net international migration (60,000 yearly instead of the observed
90,000), and a level of interprovincial migration equal to the
one observed for 1966-1971.
lThe approach adopted by Statistics Canada is mainly characterized by the use of absolute numbers (instead of rates) for
projecting migration and by'the fact that each component of
demographic growth is projected separately. See 'Technical
Report •.• , op.cit., pages 13-55.
As table 17 shows the results obtained by Statistics Canada by
using this set of basic assumptions are not very different from
those obtained by using the multi-regional model, at least as
far as the share of each province in the total population is
concerned.
The difference in the projected absolute numbers
is surprisingly small: Statistics Canada projected that the
population of Canada would reach 28.4 million by the year 2001,
while we obtained 28.9 million (it is probable that in Statistics
Canada I s proj ection, the impact--or--a lower than observed level
of fertility has been neutralized by the impact of a positive
international migration, assumed to be inexistent in our case) .
2.
The evolution of the share of each province in the
total population of Canada is obviously more meaningful
to analyze than the evolution of the absolute numbers.
Because of lack of space,--wecould not present:- all-relevant intermediate years between the initial year of
projection and stability.
We may, however, summarize
the general time pattern by stating that, with the
fertility, mortality and migration regime of 1966-1971,
stability will be reached after 627 iterations, i.e.
after 3135 years, thus in the year 5103 (the initial
year of projection being at mid-period between 1966 and
1971).
Actually, stability is almost completed by 2968,
thus after exactly one millenium (200 iterations).
A
separate analysis of the male population and of the
female population, shows that males reach stability well
before females: - 493 iterations suffice for males to
realize perfect stability, while females need 663 iterations.
As table-is shows, some provinces have already in
197'---
a share of the total population which is equal or
very close to their equilibrium share; this is the
case for Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Ontario. The latter, which in 1966-1971 was
a province with low out-migration rates and net inmigration, but low fertility, increases however its
share slightly.
Table 17 - Comparison between two 2001 projections.
Share of
each province (in %)
(1)
Statistics Canada
(2 )
IIASA
Newfoundland
2.4
2.7
Prince Edward Island
0.4
0.5
Nova Scotia
2.9
3.5
New Brunswick
2.4
2.9
Quebec
22.5
25.3
Ontario
41.0
36.5
Manitoba
3.4
3.9
Saskatchewan
1.9
3.0
Alberta
8.7
8.8
14.0
12.0
28.4
28.9
British Columbia
Total population of
Canada (in millions)
Sources: Column (1)- Statistics Canada, Population Projection for Canada and
the provinces.
1972-2001; Ottawa, 1974, Cataloque number
91-514, page 93, table 9.3, projection C, and page 15.
Column (2)- see table 15 of this chapter.
U1
IV
- 53 -
Three provinces show a steady decline in their projected
share: Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which in 1966-1971 had both
the highest out-migration rates and a net out-migration,
but "benefited" from a relatively high fertility level,
so that at least for !1anitoba, the decline was relatively
small); Quebec, which represented 28% of Canada's population
in 1971, but would contain on1¥ 11% of the total population at
equilibrium.
This province has everything ｡ ｧ ｩ ｮ ｳ ｾ
it: it has
not only the lowest out-migration rates, its ｩｮＭｭｩｧＫ｡ｴｩｯｾＬ
rates are even lower, that is why ｾｴ
experiences an important
loss in interprovincial migration (see column 3 of table 5);
Quebec has also the lowest fertility rates, barely reprodqcing
itself (see table 6); and even as far as mortality is concerned,
this province is in an unfavorable position, having the highest
death rates from older age-groups and the lowest life expectations at birth.
Finally, there are three provinces whict show a marked
increase in their share of the total population. British
Columbia
ｩｮＨＺｲ･｡ｾ･ｳ
by 50% its share during the first 50 years
of projection and reaches an equilibrium share twice as large
as its initial share
(this prc,vince has a low rate of out-
migration and a considerable positive net-migration, with
fertility rates which are about average).
Alberta shews a
smaller increase of its share in total population: its rate
of out-migration is. twice as large as that of British Columbia,
but it has the benefit
of
relatively high fertility rates.
The third province with an increase in its share of total
population comes rather as a surprise: Newfoundland, which
started as the second smallest prcvince of Canada, with only
2.4% of the total population,
･ｮｾｳ
up as being the fifth
largest province, with 6.5% of Canada's population.
This
is to be explained by its relatively low out-migration rates,
mainly by the fact that tJ-.is province has by far the highest
fert i1ity rates
and
the yot:ngest age structure.*
3. The evolution of the (five year)
growth in each province
ｩｳｾ ｲｫ･､Ｑｹ
rate of
､･ｭｯｧｲｾ ｬｩ｣
differert.
As is
*In a recent paper, K. Liaw (Dynamic Pronerties of the 1966-1971
Canadian Spatial population System, Environment and Planning A,
1978, volume 10, p. 394), obtained, ｡ ｦ ｴ ｾ
ｧｾｰＱｹｩｮｱ
a variation
of A. Rogers' model to data slightly different from those used
in the present report, stable provincial shares relatively close
to those we obtained:
34.9% for Ontario instead of our 37.9%;
9.1% for Quebec instead of our 11.0%; and 25.5% for British
columbia instead of our 20.3%.
- 54 -
well known, stable population theOl:y requires that, at equilibrium,
each region experiehces the same growth rate.
In the case of
Canada as a whole, and in the case of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick as well, this rate is leached after only 50 years, while
all other provinces would experience this growth rate (or a rate
very close to it)
｢ｹｴｾ･
yea:r 2971.
r10st provinces show a wave-
like evolution of their growth rate:
their peak appears
in 1976-1981, with the exception of Prince Edward Island (peak
reacted in 1981-1986) and Alberta (peak reached in 1971-1976).
Saskatchewan, however, shows a continuouly increasing rate of
growt.h; British Columbia
shows a steady decline in its growth
rate.
4.
Stable popu la tion the:ory not only require s tha t, at
equilibrium, each region has c consi:ant share in the
total pcpulation and a const-.ant and equal rate of demographic growth, but also ttat its age structure remains
constant.
It is obviously not possible in this brief
repc,rt to analyze in detail the proj ected evolution of
the age structure and the stable age structure of each
province.
We will limit our discussion to three aspects
of this age structure:
ｴｨｾ
mean age of the population,
the percentage of the population less than 20 years old,
and the percentage of thE' population aged 65 and over.
Table 15 shews that all provinces will have an aging
population, and that there are wide
rate of aging.
in the
Newfoundland, which was the "youngest"
province in1971, with thE
ｰ･ｲ｣･ｾｴ｡ｧ･
ｾｩｳｰ｡ｲｩｴ ･ｳ
ｬｯｷｾｳｴ
mean age, the highest
of people less than 20 years old and the
lowest percentage of people agee. 65 _and over volill
be aging at a much smaller rate than than any other
province.
At the other extreme, the province of
Quebec, which had the second lowest mean age in 1971,
an above aVerage percentage of young people anc the
second lowest percentage
cf old people, would, by the
year 2021, beccme the oldest province of Canada, with
the highest mean age, the lowest percentage of
ｹｯｾｮｧ
- 55 -
people and the highest percentage of old people
ｰｾｲ ･ｮｴ｡ｳ･
would double in these 50 years).
(the latter
The socio-economic
implications of so deEp a change in the age structure are
｣ｬｾ｡ｲｬｹ
important.
At equilibriun " hm·/ever, British Columbia would take
Quebec's place as the oldest pTovince cf Canada, with Newfoundland still being-byfar-tte youngest pTovince; all other
provinces
ｷｯｾｬ､
have
ｾｮ
age structure close to the national
average.
One of the interestinq features of the stacIe equivalent
population, when corrpared to the observee popDlation, is that
the effect of the age structure on thE' gro\\lth of the population
is eliminated.
We chose
three provinces to show how impcrtant
this age structure effect may be:
land.
Quebec, Ontario and Newfound-
The first has low fertiJity, low out-migration rates and
a negative net migration; the second has low fertility, low outmigration rates but a sizable positive net migration; and the
third tas a very high fertility, relatively
rates and negative net migration.
ｬｯｾＡ
out-migration
As is showl! in graph
III,
the age structure profile is much smoother in the stable equiva.lent population of all tbese three J:rovinces.
cularly, the "gap" in
war years) disaPI,ears.
ｦｪ｟Ｎｾ
E
s iJ 1 m.:t.rate
different
ｷｾｹ
ｴｨｦｾ
years 25-39
Ｈｲ･ｬ｡ｴｾ･､
More partito the seccnd vlorld
Moreover, the ctanges in the age pro-
how vario'l::s pc.pnJ ationb may
and at a different rate.
｢ｦｾ
,.ging ir a
For instance; Quebec had
a vE:ry yOtJ1"lg age structure in 1966-·1971, with a high "peak"
at the 5-14 age groups
(the 0-4 age group is well below the
5-14 age group because the drop in Quebec's fertility started
only in the 1960's) and a sharply declining curve, while its
stable equivalent population shows an age profile with an
almost horizontal line until age 40 and a relatively slow decrease in the curve afterwards, the general level of the curve
being very much lower.
On the other hand, Ontario, which started
with an age profile relatively similar to the one observed for
Quebec, keeps at stability a sharply declining curve which is
- 56 -
much closer tG 1·.h.e initial level than in the case of Quebec;
the "stable curve" is actually very close to the initially
observed curve, except for the 0-25 age groups (this exception reflects Ontario's decline in fertility)
for
which the
difference is much smaller than in the case of Quebec.
Finally, Newfoundland shows an important increase in the
level of its curve, doubling more or less its figures at
each age group.
C.
SPATIAL REPRODUCTION AND MIGRAPRODUCTION LEVELS
One of the many important "by-products" of the multi-
regional life table lies in the fact that it allows for computing some refined measures of spatial fertility levels, such
as the the spatial net reproduction rate1which is defined as
z
.NRR.
1.
where
J
=
.L.
l:
x
=
0
l.
J
(x)f.(x)
J
.L.
(x)
=
the number of persons from the multiregional
life table population aged (x) in region
j ,
that were born in region
i
f.
(x)
=
the age-specific fertility rate in region j
1
J
J
It is clear that when the NRR's are summed up over all regions
of residence for a given region of birth, the resulting total
NRR is not equal to the traditional NRR, oecause this spatial
NRR does include the impact of migration on fertility (assuming
a migrant adopts the fertility regime of its region of residence):
on the whole, the spatial NRR for a region of high fertility and
Isee ROGERS, A., Spatial Migration Expectancies, IIASA, Laxenburg
(Austria), RM-75-57.
Table 18.
Spatial net reproduction rates 1966-1971
Region of Residence
Region of Birth
NFD
PEl
NS
Newfoundland
1. 16
0.00
0.04
Prince Edward I.
0.02
0.70
Nova Scotia
0.03
New Brunswick
ONT
MAN
SAS
ALB
0.02 0.03
0.25
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.03
1 .57
O. 11
0.08 0.05
0.24
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.04
1. 31
0.01
0.75
0.06 0.05
0.23
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.06
1. 25
0.02
0.01
0.07
0.78 0.09
0.21
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.04
1. 28
Quebec
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01 0.89
0.12
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
1 .07
Ontario
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.01 0.05
1. 00
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.04
1. 19
Manitoba
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01 0.03
o. 16
0.69
0.05
0.12
O. 15
1 .24
Saskatchewan
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01 0.02
O. 10
0.09
0.62
0.27
O.
ｾ｡
1. 30
Alberta
British Columbia
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
O.Ol 0.02
0.09
0.03
0.04.
0.88
0.20
1 .28
0.00
0.01
0.01 0.02
0.08
0.02
0.02
0.10
0.90
1.17
ｂｾ
QUE
BC
TOTAL
,
ｾｯｴ･Ｚ
Because of rounding, the total is not necessarily equal to the sum of the columns
U1
ｾ
-
58 -
heavy out-migration (to regions of lower fertility) will be
lower than the traditional (non spatial) NRR, while the total
spatial NRR for a region of low fertility and heavy out-migration
will be higher; of course, even with zero out-migration, the
NRR will be lower than the GRR (gross reproduction rate),
because of mortality.
A comparison between the GRR's of table 6 and the total
spatial NRR's presented in table 18 brings a confirmation of
this reasoning; because of heavy out-migration to provinces
of lower fertility, the total spatial NRR of Newfoundland,
Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan are significantly
lower than their GRR.
On the other hand, there is almost
no difference in the case of provinces of
like Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.
taking into account migration (and
ｭｯｲｴ｡ｾｩｴｹＩ
ｬｾｷ
out-migration,
The result of
is that the
range of the reproduction rates is reduced (the range goes
from 1.1 to 1.6 instead of 1.1 to 1.9).
From the figures of tables 6 and 18 we may conclude that,
at least for the 1966-1971 period, the population of each
province is able to reproduce itself (the GRR's of table 6
are all above replacement level, 1.05) and does not induce
through migration the population of other provinces to fall
below replacement level (the total spatial NRR's of table 18
are all larger than one).
Note, however, that only two pro-
vinces, Newfoundland and Ontario, are able to reproduce their
own population without the "help" of in-migrants.
The figure
on the diagonal from these two provinces is equal or larger
than one.
It is also interesting to see how Ontario benefits
from the spatial diffusing of reproduction: from 100 persons
born in Ontario, only a very small number give":birth to babies
in another province (from 0 in Prince Edward Island to 5 in
Quebec), but 100 persons born in any other province give birth to
at least 8 babies in Ontario (this is the case for the natives
of British Columbia), and this figure may reach 25 (for the
natives of Newfoundland) •
- 59 -
The impact of migration on reproduction is even more
striking if one considers the
ｾ｡ｴｩ｡ｬ
allocation of the net
reproduction levels, i.e. the share of each province of residence in the total number of babies to be born from G person
in a given province.
These shares are presented in table 19,
which shows that three provinces are particularly unattractive
for childbearing for its natives. Persons born in Saskatchewan,
Manitoba and Prince Edward Island have only about a fiftypercent chance to give birth in their province than in another
province; in other words, these three provinces will receive
only about fifty-percent of the expected number of offsprings
of their natives.
At the other extreme, Quebec and Ontario will
receive almost all the number of babies born from their natives;
moreover, Ontario will also receive a large part (from 16% to 19%)
of the total lifetime births from the natives of the Maritime
provinces.
Just as in the analysis 9f gross migraproduction rates
(table 10), we may compare the two elements symmetrical to
the main' diagonal of table 19, in order to look for the preference of a "parent"
(mother or father) between two provinces.
From this point of view, it is not surprising that Ontario gains
from all the provinces and Prince Edward Island loses from all
the provinces.
On the whole, it is obvious that the hierarchy
of "preferences" for provinces of childbearing is similar to
the hierarchy of preferences for provinces of in-migration.
This link between both patterns is expected: it is due mainly
to the fact that the ages of heavy migration (20-29 years)
correspond to the ages with the highest fertility rates.
In a way similar to the spatial net reproduction rate, one
may define the net migraproduction rate1as being equal to
z
, NHR,
1
where
m. (x)
,L, (x)
J
=
E
x
=
0
ｾ
' L.
J
(x)
m. (x)
J
=
the out-migration rate of region . for persons
aged (x)
J
=
as in the spatial net reproduction rate.
J
1
J
lAo Rogers, op.cit.
Table 19.
Net Reproduction Allocations (in %)
1966-1971
Region of Residence
Region of birth
NFD
PEl
Newfoundland
74
Prince Edward Island
MAN
SAS
ALB
16
1
0
1
2
100
4
19
1
0
3
3
100
5
4
19
1
1
3
4
100
6
61
7
16
1
1
2
3
100
0
1
1
83
11
1
0
1
2
100
1
0
2
1
4
84
1
1
2
4
100
Manitoba
0
0
1
1
3
55
5
10
12
100
Saskatchewan
0
0
1
0
1
13
-8
7
48
21
14
100
Alberta
0
0
1
0
1
7
3
3
69
16
100
British Columbia
0
0
1
0
2
7
2
2
9
77
100
NS
NB
QUE
aNT
0
3
1
2
2
54
8
6
Nova Scotia
2
1
60
New Brunswick
2
1
Quebec
0
Ontario
Source: table 18
Be
TOTAL
0'\
o
- 61 -
These net migraproduction rates are an important complement to the regional life expectancies as defined and analyzed in section A of this chapter (see table 14).
The latter
are based on duration times, i.e. the expec±ed number of years
to be lived in a particular region j
region i.
by an individual born in
But migration being also a recurrent event, it is
important to know the expected number of migrations to region j
to be made during a lifetime by an individual born in region i .
This is what the NMR's are measuring.
Table 20 presents the results
of the computation of the NMR's for all pairs of provinces; as the
differences between the NMR's for males and females are rather
small, only the NMR's for the total population will be analyzed.
The total column shows that, when the effect of mortality is
taken into account, an individual born in Prince Edward Island,
Manitoba or Saskatchewan will be a migrant at least once during
his lifetime, while it takes at least two individuals born in
Quebec, or Ontario to find one migrant.
hundred
ｰ･ｲｳｯｾ
If we take a cohort of a
born in any of the Maritime provinces, at least
seven will make a migration to Ontario during their lifetime.
Alberta and British Columbia are also very attractive for persons
born in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
The figures of "table 20 are,
however, more significant once they are transformed in relative
numbers: table 21 presents
the net migraproduction allocations
for all provinces, i.e. the share of each province of residence
in the total number of migrations expected to be made by an individual born in a given province.
The figures of table 21 show rather surprisingly that once
mortality is taken into account and when
lifetime migration is
considered, the differences for staying in the region of birth
(figures along the main diagonal) are not very large: the range
goes from 65% (for an individual born in Saskatchewan) to 77%
(for an individual born in Quebec).
In other words, whatever
his province of birth, an individual will spend at least 2/3 of
his life in the province where he was born.
But he will also
make a number of migrations to other provinces, the largest part
of these expected migrations being made to adjacent provinces.
Once non-contiguous provinces are considered, the
very small and are rather identical.
ｮｵｭ｢･ｾｳ
become
Table 20.
Spatial Net Migraproduction Rates
1966-1971
-
!
Reg.ion of Residetlce
Region of Birth
NS
NB
QUE
ONT
MAN
SAS
ALB
BC
0.00
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.08
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.79
0.01
0.74
0.08
0.06
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.02
1.08
Nova Scotia
0.01
0.01
0.66
0.05
0.02
0.08
0.08
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.92
New Brunswick
0.01
0.01
0.06
0.67
0.03
0.07
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.93
Quebec
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.32
0.04
0.01
0.00
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.42
Ontario
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.33
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.47
Manitoba
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.06
0.76
0.07
0.10
0.07
1.10
Saskatchewan
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.04
0.09
0.84
0.20
0.09
1. 28
Alberta
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.67
0.10
0.91
British Columbia
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.09
0.43
0.62
NFD
PEl
Newfoundland
0.58
Prince Edward Island
TOTAL
Note: Because of rounding, the total is not necessarily equal to the sum of the columns.
..
"
0'
IV
Table 21.
Net Migraproduction Allocations (in%)
1966-1971
Region of Residence
Region of Birth
NFD
Newfoundland
74
Prince Edward Island
PEl
NS
NB
1
4
2
2
1
69
8
5
Nova Scotia
2
1
72
New Brunswick
1
1
Quebec
0
Ontario
ONT
HAN
SAS
ALB
10
2
1
2
2
100
2
7
2
1
3
2
100
5
2
8
2
1
4
3
100
6
72
4
8
2
1
3
2
100
0
2
2
77
10
2
1
3
3
100
1
1
3
2
4
72
4
2
6
5
100
Manitoba
0
0
1
1
1
5
69
6
10
7
100
Saskatchewan
0
0
1
0
1
3
7
65
16
7
100
Alberta
0
0
1
1
1
3
4
5
74
11
100
British Columbia
0
0
2
1
1
5
4
4
14
69
100
Source: Table 20
:,")
QUE
BC
TOTAL
0"1
W
- 64 -
This could mean that once the decision has been made to
move
over a large distance (i.e. beyond adjacent provinces), the
distance in itself is not important any more: the marginal
cost of moving a few more hundred miles becomes negligible.
As the empirical results of many migration models have shown,
when large distance migration is considered, economic factors
become dominant; this helps to explain the
relatively large
number of expected migrations to Ontario for persons in the
Maritime provinces.
In the Canadian case, however, linguistic
and cultural factors play also a role: these migrants from the
Maritimes tend to by-pass Quebec.
Finally, after analyzing the implications of the 1966-1971
migration regime, as far as duration of stay (regional life expectancies) and frequency (gross and net migraproduction rates)
are concerned, one may look for the equilibrium implications of
this migration
ｲ･ｧｩｾｮ･Ｌ
i.e. the stable population equivalent
which would be obtained if only migration differentials were in
effect. In order to obtain this type of result, we put agespecific mortality and fertility rates equal in each province,
and keep only the observed age-specific interprovincial migration
rates.
The differences between the stable population equivalent
obtained previously (with fertility, mortality and migration
differentials being considered) and the stable population
equivalent obtained with only migration differentials taken
into account, are a measure of the impact of fertility (and
for a small part mortality) on population redistribution
(mortality differentials being rather small and negligible, the
difference between the two stable equivalents
may be viewed as
measuring the impact of fertility differentials only).
As far as the Canadian case is concerned, this impact is
rather important.
Let us analyze the figures of table 22 which
presents the characteristics of the stable equivalent
by considering only migration
obtained
differentials and putting fertility
and mortality conditions equal over all provinces.
These figures
should be compared to the corresponding figures of table 15.
Table 22.
Absolute numbers
(in '000)
.lJhare (in %)
Mean age
Stable Equivalent
with Migration Differentials OnLy
aNT
MAN
SAS
4,482
9,491
783
457 2,588
5,653
2.1
17.9
37.8
3. 1
1.8 10.3
22.5
100
35.1
34.9
35.3
34.6 35.5 34.2
35.9
35.2
NFD
PEl
NS
NB
QUE
283
98
726
536
1.1
0.4
2.9
34.9
35.7
35.3
ALB
BC
CAN
25,095
0'1
U1
I
% Less 20 years
32.9
32.5
32.3
32.7
32.3
31.7
32.6 32.7 32.8
31 .2
31 .9
% 65 years and
over
12.6
13.9
1 3. 1
13.3
12.4
12.9
12.2 13.6 11.4
13.8
12.9
- 66 -
If, in 1966-1971, the fertility and mortality conditions
had been the same in all provinces, and had been equal to the
Canadian average, then the stable equivalent
to
the initial
Canadian population would have been 25 million instead of 18
million.
Three provinces would have benefited considerably
from the situation: Quebec,
ｏｮｴｾｲｩｯ
and British Columbia.
As expected, these are also the three provinces which in 19661971
had below average fertility rates (see table 6): by attrib-
uting
to these provinces the national (average) fertility rates,
one allows them to increase markedly their demographic "performance".
This is, however, not necessarily reflected in the
share of each province in the total population.
Because the
total population of Canada has increased also, the share of
Ontario and British Columbia are only marginally affected by
their fertility regime.
This is not the case for Quebec, the
share of which increases from 11% to 18% once fertility (and
mortality) differentials are excluded.
Note, however, that
this 18% share of Quebec is still much lower than the initial
29% share.
Thus, even if Quebec had had a fertility regime
identical to the Canadian average, it would still - at equilibrium experience a substantial reduction in its population figure (from
6 million to 4.5 million) and in its relative share (29% to 18%).
Actually, Quebec's below-average fertility accounts for about 40%
in the decline of its relative share (7% divided by 18%) as far
as the stable equivalent to initial population is concerned.
Interprovincial migration is thus the dominant factor in this
projected evolution.
The policy implications of this kind of
result are of course important, and will be discussed later, in
the next and final chapter of this report.
All other provinces benefit also (but only slightly) from
the increase in the stable total population, except Newfoundland,
which has four times less inhabitants once its over-fertility is
eliminated.
The effects of fertility (and mortality) differentials on
the mean age and on the age structure of each province in the
stable equivalent are not less striking.
As expected, the mean
age of population increases markedly in all
ｾＮ｡｢ｾｶ･
ｰｲｯｶｩｮ｣･ｳｾｨ｡ｴ
have
average fettility level (for Newfoundland, the mean age
- 67 -
increases from 28.5 to 34.9 once fertility rates are put identical in all provinces), while the mean age decreases (but only
slightly) in those provinces which have a fertility level below
average (Quebec and British Columbia).
ing
It is also not surpris-
to- see the percentage of persornless than 20 years old
decreasing in the provinces which had above average fertility
(from 45% to 33% in the case of Newfoundland) and increasing in
the provinces that had below average fertility
(but here again,
the increase is small in Quebec and Ontario).
The reverse is
true for the percentage of persons aged 65 and over.
By eliminating fertility (and mortality) differentials
the stable state is reached much more rapidly:"only" 308
iterations (i.e. 1540 years) are necessary, instead of 627; and
convergence towards stability is also much faster: after 100
iterations (i.e. 500 years, which corresponds to the year 2468),
one has reached a state which is very close to stability (200
iterations were needed when fertility differentials were taken
into account).
Finally, these fertility differentials have also a
considerable impact on the stable national (and thus provincial)
rate of growth: this rate (over five-years) drops from 4% to 3.2%
once fertility and mortality differentials are eliminated.
It has often been stated that we may expect a continuation
of the trend towards convergent fertility rates (mortality rates
are already almost identical among provinces).
Based on the
results just discussed, one may conclude that provincial fertility rates which converge towards the national average impl.y
a lower rate of demographic growth, a population which is older
(i.e. with an higher mean age, a lower percentage of young people
and a larger percentage of old people) and an important redistribution of the population among provinces, benefiting to the
provinces which have below average fertility levels.
But the
main conclusion is probably that the interactions - both at the
regional level and from the multiregional point
of view - between
fertility and migration need to be investigated more in depth.
This, however, goes beyond the scope of this short report.
1
IFor a more detailed analysis of the spatial interactions between
fertitity, mortality,'and migration, Lee C. DIONNE and M. TERMOTE,
op.cit.
- 68 -
4.
CONCLUSION:
SOME POLICY ASPECTS
Canada has a number of basic features which explain why
the spatial distribution of its population represents for its
future a highly challenging problem.
The fact that Canada is a confederation implies that the
spatial distribution of political power is with it as a fundamental issue.
Some fields (defense, money) are clearly of the
exclusive competence of the federal government; others (education, for instance) are solely a provincial domain, but in most
cases there is an overlapping of competence.
It is quite obvi-
ous that in this "struggle" between the two levels of government
(i.e. federal and provincial), the demographic weight of a province (i.e. its share in the total population) is a prime factor.
A second feature rests in the fact that the spatial distribution of its population is basically linear and multipolar.
Canada's territory is second in size only to that of the Soviet
Union, but its total population figure reaches only the 91st
rank.
This relatively sparse population is, however, distributed
as a "long, thin ribbon" along the 6,500-km border with the
United States, with half a dozen points of heavy concentration:
in the west, on the Pacific Ocean, Vancouver (British Columbia);
Edmonton and Regine (Alberta); Winnipeg (Manitoba); WindsorToronto-Ottawa (Ontario); Montreal-Quebec (Quebec); and finally,
a relatively small pole on the Atlantic Ocean, Halifax (Nova
Scotia).
As often emphasized, "The narrowness and length of
this band of habitation deprives Canada of a point of gravity
and a corresponding point of identification.,,21
Any important
shift of population along this line is therefore first viewed as
a regional (provincial) problem, and only marginally as a
national (dis-) equilibrium process.
This line, "a mari usque ad mare" (Canada's motto, meaning
"from ocean to ocean"), is particularly dense between Windsor
21 R . Beaujot, Canada's PopuZation: Growth and Dualism, Population
Reference Bureau, Washington D.C., 1978, p. 4.
- 69 -
(Ontario) and Quebec City:
between these two cities, in a rect-
angle about 1,000 km long and 150 km deep, live 55% of the
country's total population.
It could be said that there is a
"knot" in the ribbon, and that this knot lies between Ontario
and Quebec.
The strength of this knot depends on the equilib-
rium between the demographic weights attached to its two sides.
This leads us to the last,22 but certainly not the least, of
the factors we want to mention, namely, the Anglo-French antagonism.
Canada's prime issue, and much of its future, resides in
this demographic "tete-a.-tete" between the two founding "races".
And yet despite all this, Canada still has no population
policy, and more particularly, no policy of spatial redistribution of the population.
In a recent analysis of Canada's popu-
lation trends and public policy issues, Stone and Marceau had
to conclude in the following way:
"It can be said generally
that few public policies have been adopted to reach demographic
objectives.
Those that seem closely related to demographic
objectives, such as the Immigration Act, have in fact been
adopted most often to meet a great number of needs which are
quite different and sometimes contrary to the requirements of a
certain control of demographic evolution."23
the same conclusion:
Beaujot arrives at
"Like the U.S., Canada has no national pop-
ulation policy in the sense of a coherent set of programs deliberately aimed at influencing the size, rate of growth, distribution, and composition of the country's population. ,,24
22 Th ere lS,
.
f course, anot h er lmportant
.
.
0
phenomenon WhlCh
should
be mentioned, namely, the rapid growth of several large cities
and the depopulation of many small communities. But as this
report is limited to the population redistribution between
provinces, we have to neglect this rural-urban dimension.
2 3L . o. Stone and C. Marceau, Canadian Population Trends and Pub lie
Policy Through the 1980's, Institute for Research on Public Policy,
Montreal, 1977, p. 57.
24 R . Beaujot, Ope cit., p. 38.
70
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Graph III.
L--.--__ＭＮ ｲＭＮ ＬＮ ＭＮ］Ｚ ［Ｚ ｾＧ［ＭＬＮ ﾷ
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70
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Observed (-) and stable equivalent (---) populations
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- 70a -
The need for a policy of direct intervention in the spatial
redistribution of the population has, however, become even more
apparent, at least to the author of this report, if we consider
the results of our multiregional analysis.
It is obvious, and
we have emphasized it more than often, that projecting the 19661971 multiregional demographic rates until a stable equilibrium
is reached, does not represent a forecast of the future.
'But
the behavioral characteristics implied in this type of multiregional projection may, however, help the policy-makers in
formulating the objectives and means of a long-range population
policy.
One of the main results of our multiregional projection
has been to show how negligible the share of Quebec's population
(and thus of the French component) will be in the long run if
the 1966-1971 fertility, mortality and interprovincial migration
rates are kept fixed:
Quebec's share in the total population of
Canada would be reduced from the present 27% to 11% at equilibrium.
It is clear that if Canada wants to remain a truly bilin-
gual country (or, more exactly, a country where two languages
and two cultures coexist), some measures are needed today (the
long run starts today ... ).
These measures may influence directly
the components of regional demographic growth, or they may influence them indirectly.
Let us first consider the first type of
intervention.
The 11% figure of Quebec's long run share in the total population of Canada was obtained by assuming that the fertility
level would remain constant.
But Quebec's fertility level con-
tinued to decline markedly in the 1970's relatively to the fertility level of the other provinces and is now well below replacement level.
In order to estimate the impact of fertility
differentials, we have put the fertility rates in each province
equal to the Canadian figure and so obtained an increase of
Quebec's long run share from 11% to 18%, which shows how sensitive the results are to the fertility regime, but which also indicates that with a declining fertility level in Quebec, its
- 71 -
already low (11%)
long run share would probably be significantly
reduced if our mUltiregional projection was based on 1978 figures.
Direct interventions in the field of fertility seem, however, considered with great reluctance (Canada has never had
a national fertility survey and did not join the countries participating in the World Fertility Survey), and it is doubtful
whether they would produce any sizable result.
(A fertility
survey made in Quebec showed that even with extremely pro-natalist
policy measures, the women of Quebec would increase only marginally their fertility level).25
The impact of international migration seems to be at least
as important as the impact of fertility differentials.
As we
showed in the second chapter of this report, international migration represents about 30% of Canada's total population growth,
and most of the gain from migration between Canada and the rest
of the world benefits Ontario and British Columbia:
total net gain went to these two provinces.
85% of the
A recent article
by K.-L. Liaw shows that by taking international migration into
account, Ontario's long run share increases from 35% to 41%, and
British Columbia's share from 25% to 30%, while Quebec's long
run share decreases from 9.1% (compared to our 11%) to 6.6%.
It
is clear from these figures that Canada's international migration policy has strongly influenced the interprovincial redistribution of its population, and, if maintained, will represent
an additional source of decrease in the French component of
Canada's population.
Once a group feels that it is going to
represent only 6% of the total community, it is not surprising
that it starts to question the survival of its distinct culture
and to ask for some policy measures.
25 J. Henrlpln
..
.
d amcy k , La fin de Za revanche des
an d E. Laplerre-A
berceaux: qu'en pepusent Zes Quetiecoises? Presses de l'Universite
de Montreal, 1974, p. 164.
- 72 -
Fertility being disregarded as a field of direct intervention
because it is viewed as a personal and confidential ques-
tion, and a direct intervention on internal mobility being excluded for much the same reasons (it would be considered an
attack on the personal freedom of the Canadian citizens), it is
not surprising that the prime - and more precisely - sole domain
where a national population policy seems to have taken shape is
international migration.
It does not seem exaggerated to state
that the essential content of the Canadian population policy
will be put into force through immigration policies.
This is
indeed the conclusion reached by the Department of Manpower and
Immigration:
"There are few firm handholds for policy in the
field of demographic planning.
One ... can be furnished through
the control of immigration volume. ,,26
If controlling the volume of immigration means reducing the
number of immigrants, then the provinces which receive the main
bulk of these immigrants (Ontario and British Columbia) will see
a decrease in their relative share of the population to the benefit of those provinces which do not gain from international migration:
immigration policy measures have then a direct influence
27
on population redistribution.
One should, however, also take
into consideration the capacity of each province to retain these
immigrants.
Not only do Ontario and British Columbia receive
much more than their share of immigrants, but they also receive
after a few years immigrants who at their entrance into Canada
had chosen another province.
At the other extreme, Quebec loses
about one third of its immigrants three years after their arrival.
The spatial distribution of the population may be influenced
not only by a control of the volume of immigration, but it may
also be affected by the choice of the selection criteria for
26Department of Manpower and Immigration, Report of the Canadian
Immigration and ｐｯｰｵｾ｡ｴｩｯｮ
Study, Ottawa, 1974, Volume 1, p. 7.
27This is, of course, even more valid if we introduce the urban
dimension, as most immigrants settle in metropolitan areas.
- 73 -
immigrants.
The fact that in 1974 these selection criteria were
modified to disfavour immigrants whose occupation "is not in
demand in Canada ll has given an advantage to the provinces which
are the economic leaders of the country:
it is highly probable
that most of the "occupations which are in demand in Canada" are
located in Ontario and British Columbia.
Both these direct and indirect influences of immigration
on the interprovincial redistribution of population, and more
particularly on the linguistic "balance ll
(and thus on Quebec
versus the rest of Canada), have received in recent years a lot
of attention among policy-makers and have led in 1977 to an unprecedented agreement between the federal government (which has
always considered immigration a domain of exclusive federal competence) and Quebec:
an agreement whereby Quebec is allowed to
intervene in the selection (and thus also in the number) of
immigrants who have chosen to settle in this province.
This kind of measure is probably the closest the federal
government has come to intervening in the spatial redistribution
of the population.
A recommendation by the Special Joint Com-
mittee of the Senate and by the House of Commons on Immigration
Policy (in 1975), that
lI
area demand be ... used experimentally to
encourage prospective immigrants to settle in communities where
population growth is desired and is compatible with regional
development plans ll has - to date - not been more than a suggestion.
Even if this type of recommendation was adopted by the
legislative body, its impact may be doubted (because of the
internal mobility of these immigrants), and its result would
probably be an increase in the relative attractiveness of the
provinces which are already receiving the largest part of the
immigration flow, because it is precisely in these provinces
that
lI
area demand ll is the strongest.
As already mentioned, there is no direct intervention by
the federal government in the field of internal migration.
Freedom of movement on Canadian territory is considered a basic
right which may not be affected in any way.
I.
(This is probably
- 74 -
the main reason why the principle of an "identity card", adopted
in most European countries, has never been accepted in Canada) .
Provincial governments may, however, also try to influence the
geographic mobility of the population.
The Quebec government
has been particularly active during the last years in developing
policies which, directly or indirectly, have had a strong impact
on interprovincial migration flows.
A direct interference in the field of fertility and internal
migration being excluded, the Quebec government has chosen, besides the above mentioned measures concerning international migration, to influence lingusitic mobility in order to try to
protect the survival of the French culture.
The most striking
policy measure in this field has been to allow (since 1977)
into English schools only those children whose parents themselves
went to an English school in Quebec.
The immediate result of
this kind of policy has been to reduce considerably the amount
of in-migration from the other provinces (which are all Englishspeaking), and to increase (actually, to double) the number of
out-migrants.
Of course, the volume and composition of the flow
of international immigration in Quebec has also been affected.
This type of policy measure represents probably the most
striking example where intervention in one domain (education, in
this case) has had a considerably indirect impact on the spatial
redistribution of population.
Indeed, even if there is no di-
rect intervention in the spatial redistribution of population,
there are a great number of policy measures which have an indirect influence on this redistribution.
And even if there were
a population redistribution policy, it is highly probable that
its effects would be more than offset by those resulting from
other policy measures.
It may be said that almost all policy
measures, in every field, have an indirect impact on population
redistribution.
Let us mention only a few of them.
As mentioned, there is no direct intervention in the field
of fertility.
But the modifications to the Criminal Code
adopted in 1969 in order to allow doctors to practice abortions
- 75 -
once a committee has accepted for therapeutic reasons the request for abortion, may have had an important - and yet difficult to estimate - impact on provincial fertility differentials,
and thus on population redistribution, because the number of
these committees and their readiness to accept abortion greatly
vary from one province to another.
Any employment policy obviously has regional implications
and has therefore, in some way or another, an impact on the
spatial distribution of the population.
Recognizing that migra-
tion is one of the main adjustment processes to regional labor
market disequilibria, the Economic Council of Canada recently
recommended that "Canadians who want to improve their financial
situation must to some extent be ready to move into the regions
where well-paid jobs are offered, particularly if these jobs are
located in the social and cultural environment where these mi28
grants corne from."
In order to help the functioning of this spatial adjustment
process, the federal government has subsidized moving expenses
of workers and their dependents who move from "labor surplus
areas", but this help was authorized only when the worker was
unemployed, had a job to go to, and was unable to pay the costs
himself.
The impact of this kind of intervention has, however,
been negligible:
only about one hundred workers and their fami-
lies were assisted in this way each year.
Moreover, helping
people to move does not represent a policy of spatial redistribution of population as long as no objectives in spatial terms
are defined.
This kind of spatial objective is by definition present,
at least implicitly, in a regional developnent policy.
"Since
the birth of the Confederation, a balanced regional development
has always been implicitly, if not explicitly, one of the
28Economic Council of Canada, Living Together' - A Study of Regional
Disparities, Ottawa, 1977, Catalogue No. EC 22-54/1977. See
summary, p. 10.
- 76 -
objectives of national policy."29
The first problem, of course,
is to define what is understood by a "balanced" regional development.
Equilibrium is a relative concept:
we put into it.
it depends on what
From what we may infer from the activities of
the various agencies set up by the federal government in the
last two decades, balanced regional development means improving
the economic viability of some regions that are considered "poor"
and suffering from lagging growth.
It is obviously not possible in this short review to give
a detailed account of Canada's regional development policy.30
Besides, the usefulness of this exercise would be disputable.
As concluded by Brewis in his study of regional economic policies
in Canada:
"There is a serious lack of co-ordination among the
various bodies concerned ... and it is often difficult to know who
is responsible for doing what ... there seems to be something for
everybody.
But how effective are these various incentives, and
what sort of a pattern of regional development is likely to
emerge from them?
No one is sure ... to a very large extent the
government is still operating in the dark.,,31
Things have, however, improved since the creation, in
1969, of the Department of Regional Economic Expansion (DREE).
This department tries to co-ordinate various regional programs
and, with a relatively small budget, attempts to influence regional economic growth differentials.
The financial help provid-
ed by this department has been about equally divided between
three programs:
infrastructure works (particularly roads, water
distribution and sewers in urban regions), rural development and
29Economic Council of Canada, First Annual Review, Ottawa, 1964.
30For a detailed analysis of regional economic policies in the
1960's, see T.N. Brewis, Regional Economic Policies in Canada,
Macmillan, Toronto, 1969, p. 303. For the 1970's, see the
Annual Reports of the Department of Regional Economic Expansion.
31 T . Brewis, Ope cit., p. 247.
- 77 -
subsidies intended to promote the establishment of new plants
or the expansion of existing ones in regions with a low economic
growth rate.
Among the criticisms which have been directed towards the
activities of DREE, one may mention the large spatial dispersion
of the help which is provided, the fact that a large part of this
help goes to urban regions which have problems of industrial
concentration, and the fact that most of the aid goes to small
private industries which are rarely the most polarizing, having
often a rather low "multiplier effect".
One of the regional development policy measures which may
have a significant and immediate impact on regional development,
and thus on population redistribution, consists of the policy of
the federal government intended to decentralize some of its services.
The first step in this way had been taken about ten
years ago when it was decided to move some federal agencies,
previously located in Ottawa, to Hull, which is in fact a suburb
of Ottawa but located on Quebec territory, on the other side of
the Ottawa River, which constitutes the border between Ontario
and Quebec.
This kind of policy measure, which actually is in
line with the sUburbanization of the capital city of Canada,
has clearly had an important impact on migration flows between
Ontario and Quebec.
In the last years, the federal government
has started to move some of its services to far remote, underdeveloped regions of the country, but the impact of this measure
is as yet rather negligible.
Many other policy measures having an indirect effect on
population redistribution should be mentioned:
transportation
policy, export policy, federal and provincial taxation policy,
defense policy, housing policy, and so on.
Moreover, one should
not forget that each province may have its own policy measures.
The main conclusion of this highly sketchy review of some
policy aspects related to the spatial (interprovincial) redistribution of population in Canada, is probably that no conclusion can be made:
there are too many interrelations between
- 78 -
different policy measures taken at various government levels,
and there are too many indirect influences to be considered besides the direct impact of a given policy measure.
It is hoped
that this brief report on the spatial redistribution of the
Canadian population will, however, have contributed to stimulate
further studies of all these interrelations.
5.
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
Anderson, LB.
(1966), Internal Migration in Canada, 1921-1961,
Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 87.
Barrett, M. and C. Taylor (1977), Population and Canada, University
of Toronto, Toronto.
Beaujot, R.
(1978), Canada's Population: Growth and Dualism, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C., 47.
Brewis, T.N.
(1969), Regional Economic Policies in Canada, Macmillan,
Toronto, 303.
Department of Manpower and Immigration, (1974), Report of the
Canadian Immigration and Population Study, Ottawa.
Department of Manpower and Immigration,
Policy for Canada, Ottawa.
(1976), Toward a Demographic
Economic Council of Canada, (1977), Living Together - A Study of
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George, M.V.
(1970), Internal Migration in Canada. Demographic Analyses,
Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa, 249.
Grindstaff, C.l., C. Boydell and P. Whitehead, (1971) ,Population
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Hawkins, F.
(1972), Canada and Immigration: Puhlic Policy and Puhlic
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Jennes, R.A.
(Spring 1974), Canadian Migration and Immigration.
Patterns and Government Policy, ｉｮｴ･ｉＧｲｴ｡ ｩｯｮ｡ｾ
Migration Review,
8, 1, 5-22.
Liaw, K.-L.
(November 1976), Sensitivity Analysis of Discrete
Time Interregional Population Systems, Demography, 13, 4,
521-539.
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Liaw, K.-L.
(1978), Dynamic Properties of the 1966-1971
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A,
Rogers, A.
(1975), Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography,
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(1978), The FOP/1/al Demography of Migration and Redistribution:
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(1974), Population Projections for Canada aru1 the
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International Migration Review, special issue, ｾＬ
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Stone, L. o. and A. J. Siggner (editors),
Canada:
(1974), The Population of
CICRED, Paris.
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(1977), Canadian Population Trends and
Public Policy Through the 1980's, Institute for Research on
Stone, L.O. and C. Marceau,
Public Policy, Montreal, 109.
Willekens, F. and A. Rogers, (1976), Computer Programs for Spatial
Demographic Analysis, RM-76-58, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
(1977), More Corrrputer Programs for
RM-77-30, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Willekens, F. and A. Rogers,
Spatial Demographic Analysis,
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P.EOOUAR
""""""-""""*"*"""'"
,u c ll.1.
4 ..
"--
II q '13 7.
ｾａｉｔ ｎｉ
1!'I
15
2:?1
<'5
11'5
59'
5'5
n0
ＮＷｬＱｾｊ Ｕ
511316,
3CJ3S5.
2320<1,
3'"
-_.-
ｉｨｾＮ
2 lJ 4.
:sc; 3.
394.
4sQ.
/152.
4&"1.
'1 9 2.
11"1".
a65.
432.
ＳＸＨｾ
•
3r'.& •
2 1H.
.H??8.
5
-.---.
l{oo3.5.
2C1ih5.
.B2!l.
Ｂｪｾ
TOTAL
-
133i!l.
55
..
---,'
PH.
1"35.
S71>2'·.1\ •
,4GE
_ _..
07 _sail.
/j3'HIII •
ｱ＿｢ｾｬＢＱＮ
ｾＵ ｑｬＷｃＱＮ
".
t-69.
71\334.
b;>Q·14.
/:lflll,,3.
.
BHUNSloiIC
N.5COTIA
C; 1 •
ｾＴ
1I'''lb7,.
239720.
ｾＬ
•
uc;
lH1
---0.-
(., {t'
9? ｾｈＧ 9 'i.
9"'1,C;f,.
75
85
ｾ
P.EDOUAR
ｾＢｉｪｬｾＧ Ｎ
9'511!'i'.
"14873.
Cjll,.' 19.
ＮａｉｬＧ ｾ ｃ
liS
NIll ｏｾＧｕｏｆＮ
ｃｏｈＨＱｾｔ
!'i!rlAI. kF';,rU"
••• ** ....... *************.**********
Ｎ［｣ｬｩｾＱＷ ｃ
35
1I111
ｏｾ
ａｴＮｾ
** •
Cl!'S:"9.
ＮｬｃＱ ＳｾＹ
ＮＲｾＡＱＷｬｦ
l\U93.
,,'5
7'5 'I q b.
71J
75
80
6&2b2.
'5.:1539.
ll1il2l7Q.
8'5
ＲﾷｾＰＷＸＮ
P.EOOUAR
ｄｾｬｌｏｆＮｗｎ
ｾＮ
?Ilq.
1(1("IH'",.
AClI6O:.
ｾｶＮＲＱ Ｎ
liS?.
II"".
517.
97&.
111c8.
110,'/".
17 31,.
1 7 23.
1675.
1597.
1(195.
13112.
1225.
1 lilll •
73&.
433.
73"190.
&7b50.
4CJ79/J.
3/11193.
32 7 ':i?.
ＲＹ ｲｾＷ
•
;>*,321.
23"127.
22 v1 'H.
ＲｾＱｬ ＦＮ
ＮＲＵｾＸＱ
15955.
13128.
9825.
5 9 &7.
N.SCOTIA
CiJ.
1413 •
3541.
1I929.
5653.
81 7'3.
91'113.
9359.
95112.
9S& I.
9553.
9375,
8733.
79711.
Hilt.
5751.
4199,
252Q,
ｃｉ ｾｓｎｕｒｂ
Ｎｾ
13&9.
2557.
':!i!II.
41"27.
5315.
5931.
&301.
&1I1Q.
&112"1.
&3111.
f,\II23,
571;!.
525l.
11&30.
3828.
2783.
11.>&1.
0.
0.
4118.
11117.
1918.
i!3/J8.
3779.
5231.
blH2.
&5&4.
&7S1,
&&90,
&51&,
&230,
5712.
4982.
4033.
2857.
1&12,
ＮＸｾＲＳ
&164.
8462.
Ｑ ＰＷｾＮ
19923.
2115&1>.
2& 717 •
27757,
&'6332.
28239.
2 7 533,
2& 117 ,
23983.
ＲｾＹＲＦＬ
17"''12,
12323.
7300,
ａｂｏｔｉｎａｾＮ
0.
269.
&1l0.
715,
837.
1292.
1&(:\8.
1790.
188S,
1891:1.
1885.
1805,
1&95,
1553.
1377 •
11110,
831.>,
51'1&,
2" 4.
31&.
3111,
41&,
420.
&15,
801,
A38.
839,
8&4.
86111,
843 •
801,
74b,
&5& •.
511,
332.
ef, ｾｪＬＨ［
..
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AL
••• * •• *.*** •• Ｊ Ｊ ｾＪＮ ＪＮ ＪＮ Ｊ
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15
?PI
97211.
Qf> 7r,'9.
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ＮｬＡｩＧｾＢＹ
p.f.nnUAR
N.SCC'l1A
BfWNSW IC
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90 h 65.
l1.3/).
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37 7 •
7/lh.
97'1.
235.
537.
758.
BA I.
14 11 •
17 79.
•
ＱｾＸＷＮ
3,
G.. 9\7.
\:j'lI.
Q.,Q.
1"?h.
1 H17.
U<:I
fi
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"",Q9.
ＱＲｾｨＮ
1I,
5;1
92714.
ＲＨｾ｡Ｂ
'l051311.
ＲＧＷｾｇＮ
ｑｾＧｩＵＹＮ
Ｓｾ
')'5
61:1
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7'/1
75
I.
Ｑｾ
ＸＲＶｾ＿
2??2.
761135.
71359.
509':)1.
1131"'b.
0>923.
3/176.
4149.
4b1lEl.
5'l1l\.
')1I1?-.
1>294.
b515.
oS2li'1.
SUA.
l1f\9.
11bS.
1 127.
53a3.
5436.
536S.
51C(l9.
11l")3.
11,<;9.
IVl9h.
2il'T Ill.
<:1\')11.
lWB.
1'i ｾｲ (' •
1;:>39.
933.
tHlC, •
62').
3Cl'l.
25 1l 25.
22277.
17892.
12775.
7 4 79.
4457.
3'12/1.
3252.
2369.
1 11 12.
fl0
ＳＧＱＲｾｲ［ｉＮ
ｱｾ｜ｻ
65
2:U73.
53[,'.
•
10
ｏｎｔａｾ
'" .
<)47.
Iba G•
212"'.
2506.
3S1I1.
ＴＲｱｾ ＱＮ
•
aU[fifC
VI •
:i9033.
35f\'1(1.
33311 1 •
311<)/1.
l Qb 4 •
f\ 7351.
A?I17h.
155<"1.
f,b(1f\9.
5 ＨｈｾＵＦＮ
SCeJT I A
••
ｎＬｪＮｆｮｬＩｾｮ
ＮＢ ｨ ｲﾷｾ ｊ
rl.
ＮｾＶＳＦ
&11 q.
St-3r.
4923.
3998.
2841.
1&09.
1/1.
.3 'Ill a •
6529.
918&.
117b8.
1 8 59&,
22968.
25111.
2b453.
27258.
27406.
2t-et2.
ＲＢＵＹｾＮ
23511.
20540.
16755.
12137.
7204.
MANITOfiA
.,.
2el •
441.
&30.
79111.
11&8.
1481.
1637 •
1&95.
11':)1'l.
1701.
1703.
Ib08.
1476.
130&.
1082.
794.
480.
SASKATCI1
ALBERTA
8.COLUMB
\lI •
0.
371.
825.
1102.
1433.
2478.
3523.
3899.
4051.
'1097.
4105.
3911.
3752.
3429.
311117.
21183.
1811.
1081.
0.
623.
1576.
23B6.
lib.
206.
2B7.
32&.
4b&.
582.
7111B.
707.
789.
B12,
ＸＳｾＮ
801.
748.
&85.
592.
455.
292.
ＳｾＸＲＮ
1I391.
5735.
&5b7.
1131.
771115.
8071.
8202.
811181.
17 1' .
6979.
59&2.
4574.
2887.
,
INITIAL
Ar.E
OF COHORT
ｒｅｇｉｏｾ
TOTAl.
N".FOU"ID
'"
23.' •
4(/1
1'" ＮＰｾｉｬＱＧＺ
Q7Hl') •
973/:13.
97 ... 87.
9"SfP.
9')91<'.
QS ｾｉ en.
Cl47'18.
93 97 2.
45
5'"
Q(",)52.
'"
S
Pl
15
2ri1
25
31'
35
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bill
Cji!n",-,.
ｾＷＺｈＧｨＮ
1\25213.
65
751>4'1.
70
&b21 7 •
75
542')3.
39335.
23298.
Bl1'
as
ｬｯｉｓ ｾｕｒｂ
IC
••••••••••• *••••••••••••••••••••••
•••
N.SCOTIA
ｒｾｕｏｄｅＮｐ
.
0.
211>.
391.
5411.
t-3 1l .
745.
a57.
｢ｲｾＮ
b79.
ｇｾＡｊＮ
ｾＷＲＮ
1<'31.
1333.
111211.
1431 •
lli"'7.
1347.
12/j 1 •
1 t7 7.
1 :>',B.
8u7.
1>12.
356.
9511.
t01 G•
ＱｾＰｦ｜Ｎ
l"aPl.
111:19.
998.
93/).
"41\.
729.
571.
3b7.
"'.
12 7 2.
2578.
3 4 (12.
lIiHl t •
532'i.
6338.
b 77 2.
&9!9.
6939.
b94a.
bH31\.
b533.
bVl59.
53&7.
4 11 37.
3270.
1969.
BRllNswIC
ｾｬｈ ｾＰＱ
•
9"444.
83227.
77"'23.
72tl'59.
511129.
4 Ｖｲｾ
9.
021173.
ＳＧ ｾ
b',.
35684.
32'lIS.
303t-5.
28"''''8.
252411.
21770.
17597.
121185,
7213.
QUEBEC
ｾＮ
Ib25.
2815.
37117.
4491 •
ＷＨＱｬｴｊｾＮ
ｇｾｓＲＮ
1014&.
Iftl"4b.
112'822.
1078&.
105i12.
9Cl46.
91 11 7.
7Cl8S.
&/173,
4590.
259".
ONHRIO
MAIIIITOBA
0.
111.
201.
450.
&51.
625.
1102.
1345.
1511.
1583.
1&48.
1&57.
1630.
1530.
1418.
125b.
104111,
7&3.
IIb2.
2708.
5413.
71>52.
10109.
16889.
209 4 4.
22895.
24284.
250bl.
25303.
25023.
23848.
21882.
1 9 135.
15b29.
11342.
6747.
SASKATCH
AI.BERTA
B.COLUMB
0.
0.
312.
0.
495.
1134.
1&51.
2145.
102.
Ibl).
228.
3I1l b •
432.
522.
651.
Hl2.
109.
142.
754.
72S.
683.
625.
540.
415.
2&7.
730.
'lab.
12&0.
218b.
2891.
3192.
3378.
3443.
3496.
3398.
3211.
2951.
2b0"'.
2143.
156&.
937.
ＳＱＶｾＮ
41 'n.
4671.
5434.
5877 •
6262.
61130.
6384.
6154.
5600.
48U.
3721.
23b1.
\D
IV
.. ..... "_ ..... _."._ .. .......... -
A[·E
ｌａｉｔ ｾｊ
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.
20
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25
91,17 11 •
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ｱｾＶｴＬＢＮ
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55
95",,7.
ＧＲｾＮ
44"('1.
ｾ［Ｗ
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Q:Ji7"J9.
87393.
62237.
711'1f'15.
L107.
｢ｬｾ
65
7 III
75
c.VI
85
Ｑｾ
15
＿ｾ
305.
32:5.
21,7.
195.
11 b.
INITIAL
ｾｅｇｉｮｎ
.......•.... -._
TOTAL
5
'91.
37/151.
21"3".
.".
III
L1.,S.
65;''17.
52b39.
AGE
11"t"Ii'?('l.
'l7qQf-.
'n 7il2.
97';<;".
'H 1/19.
"/I". fOU,,'O
3('\
'10229.
"35.
35
9Sb1!3.
719.
7Sq.
76&.
7&1.
711&.
713.
&65.
5 9 2.
/j'l3.
3b2.
21&.
50
qllE':7S.
935H.
9151'l.
<;5
/!o62'H.
｢ｾ
f'lS
B33H.
7t-33 A •
Ｗｾ
Ｖ｢ ｂｾＮ
75
511 4 35.
H1I58.
23593.
Ij!'l
80
85
Cl17.
547.
7115.
9t-1ll.
a,,?.
725.
54b.
3 4 2.
ＱｾＬ ＷＮ
1155.
1l?P'4.
1223.
1l?02.
1 '. II 7.
1138.
112129.
879.
&bll.
416.
ＱｬＧ ･ＺｾＰＢＧＮ
q"J3':l5.
922&1.
89752.
672"Jb.
82Q92.
711709.
753 9 1.
72381.
&9/147.
b&11I8.
&21158.
518112.
5111"6.
114425.
35251.
211391.
13331.
ONURIO
MANITOBA
0.
1551.
3379.
11895.
&292.
8774.
0.
75.
1&7.
23&.
2Q7.
1107.
551,
&25.
b64.
735.
757.
7&2.
740.
702.
626.
529.
395.
245.
ｉｾｑＱＰＮ
12570.
13B56.
111873.
15b12.
15772.
1532&.
14371.
12754.
10&10.
7871,
4818.
SASKATCH
ALBERTA
e.
0.
124.
300.
422.
536.
825.
11 4 7.
13112.
1483.
lSb0.
1&21,
1610.
1547,
145121.
1287.
2&.
bt.
85.
107.
14&.
207.
2&1.
294.
315.
338.
351.
347.
331.
310.
27b.
218.
1115.
1070.
79121.
-480.
8.COLUMB
A.
212.
503.
792.
1055.
1538.
20173.
253b.
2910.
321213.
3481.
3651.
371214.
3&4&.
3352.
2919.
2288.
1483.
1.0
w
...... -............
OF COHORT
P.EDOlJAR
0.
ＳＲｾＮ
(1.
174.
391/1.
503.
591.
1\9".
9':\9.
333.
132.
135.
1111l1.
141 •
137.
1211.
113.
92,
bl.
5"'.
11 I •
158.
17 A•
183.
231.
267.
29&.
ＮＵ ｾ
V'l.
'13.
841.
947.
lC'l:-12.
ＱｾＳＸ
•
1(·1£11 •
1"'12.
CllE.!:IEC
BRUNSI'IIC
23\ •
11'5 •
ｉｾＢＮ
12 L1 •
11'.
4/11 •
ｾＯｬ
.
139.
263.
ｱｾ｢ｩ＼ＷＮ
25
Ｈｾ
N.SCOT!"
1':; •
31 •
113.
4Q.
57.
1•
ｉｾ
/.5
5;1
ｾｓ
P.EDOUAR
sq.
<J7 7 25.
97 II<Hl.
9";>11.
117 •
150.
17 C; •
t 97.
I"
15
QUEf1tC
OF COHORT
ｾｏｉｇｅｨ
'
ONTARIO
N.SCOTIA
281'1.
255.
221.
175.
113.
ｾＮ
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2 9 &.
/)51.
9'H.
1('\l/".
0'28.
488.
bol.
7t-b.
6lil.
1111BlII.
123a.
12'H.
1 6 3':l.
18b",.
19711.
ＮｾＱ Ｓ
2017.
1933.
1805.
1598.
1323.
977.
597.
14i'b.
1411.
1375.
1333.
1254.
111 3.
929.
&65.
1115.
Ｓｾ｡Ｎ
31il5.
301.
295.
BHUNSwIC
ＲｴＱ ｾ｢Ｎ
ＮＱＳｾＲ
QUEBEC
ONURIO
0.
100000.
95177.
917b3.
10&9.
19117.
2553.
2979.
3847.
5114.
5917 •
61149.
&&88,
&775.
&&54.
&389.
5915.
51 6 1.
4220.
3009.
1711.
ＸＹＱｾＴＮ
8be-03.
83045.
764111.
75177.
'72&75.
703bll.
67&74.
&11471.
&0207,
54502.
1171111.
3802&.
2720&.
15900.
MANITOBA
USKATCI'l
Al.BERTA
B.COL,.UMB
0,
0.
88.
21213,
0.
275.
680.
101&.
1300.
186&.
2548.
292121.
3138.
32&3.
3303.
3247.
30 9 1.
2858.
2'530.
2097 •
1542.
Q30.
0.
459.
I1bll.
1824.
2457.
35"'0.
45119.
5259.
51120.
b275.
&b97.
&938.
&9b5.
b7&2.
&190.
5359.
41b8.
2&73.
217,
512,
71la,
93b.
1205.
14b7.
Ib2&,
171 4 ,
17b3.
178&,
1755.
1&60,
1571.
11105.
1178.
87&.
538.
3iJiI.
3&8,
1l43.
558.
6113.
'7U,
71lZ.
777 ,
793.
773.
727.
b 7 3.
589.
458.
298.
I ｾＮ 1 l I ｾ L "l: c·
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1 C, Till.
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tｾ •
Q7"h<l.
4?.
1,,. ＢＧｾＮｴ
r,
it'
ｾ
q7UH3.
Cl72p. ...
Dbp.IlI'l.
CJ1,241.
"l e, , 17 •
9504Cl.
Q"2SlI'.
9?<)S".
15
21"
2<;
ｾ
t r:: ｾ
MM.
J T(lH A
Ｊ Ｊ Ｎ Ｊ Ｎ Ｊ ｾＮＪ ＪＮ Ｊ ｴ
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35
ｾｪＯ
45
5PO
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t .. I •
?b5.
:3 I "l •
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ll:'l ｾ •
3S"'.
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831131'.
ｾ＼ＮｉＧＩ
tiS
7"CJ'lI.
ｊ＿ｾＧ
70'
75
lH"
85
II.
25 U •
5'" II?
11121'" •
<'41\':'1.
ｾＺｓＢＮ
1 7 3.
I
en.
"'.
ONTARIO
ｃｅｈｾｕｑ
111.
(lI.
IbVl.
Pel.
'552.
741.
841t..
I et51 •
425.
0;91.
""q.
"Q4.
Au".
97P,.
1\1/19.
11112.
I 151 •
1125.
107&.
9 Q b.
A/8.
728.
532,
319.
518.
12"6.
l&H.
1921:1.
24 CJ .,.
33 7 3.
194.
252.
2,,11.
?62.
253.
2U7.
ＮｾＷ､ Ｂ
RRUNS .. IC
?h3.
22\.
•
N.SCOTIA
"'.
3<;.
I I 7.
l 75.
192.
9q.
ＮＷｾｊｃ＿ｬ
ＮｾＵｱＷｬＱ
5<,
ｐＮｅｲ ｃｬｴｊａｾ
22A.
ＲｾＷＮ
179.
11.1(;l.
901.
ＱＲｾＢＧＮ
\I.IH9.
15.,8.
ISCJ7.
159 I •
156'5.
148£1.
137/1.
1214.
1Ol ｾ 1 •
731.1.
447.
4",Ut-.
44S5.
41>f>1..
4743.
4&93.
4525.
4188.
3b53.
29&2,
2100.
1165.
ｾＮ
2289.
51')5.
7397.
9034.
1201'l5.
15229.
17302.
18&39.
195010.
198211.
19540,
18&58,
171 9 1.
15097.
12391,
9031.
5397,
MANITOBA
SASKATCtol
ＱＰｾｈＢ ＰＮ
0.
14 9 1.
2472.
31H 1,
3484.
3SH'I.
38'14.
4Q!7Ii.
4098,
4143.
41\111.
3980,
3780.
31180.
3138,
2&&&,
2011'l,
12&2,
89485.
79125,
71418.
&530&.
55396.
45154.
38548.
34037.
30723.
27889.
25457,
23157.
20&28.
17&CJ5.
14151.
9985.
5754.
8.COlUMB
ｈｾｅｂｬａ
0.
1579.
3&41.
5099.
&285.
8772.
10879.
11755.
12138.
12109,
11844.
11408,
liH 22.
9UEl.
8b24,
7082.
5149.
30&1,
I'l.
1817,
4714.
70S".
ＹｾＰＱＮ
11991.
14594.
1&3£18.
17&18.
18458.
19219.
1 9 581,
191142.
18729.
17082.
14717,
113&3.
7212,
1.0
ｾＰｉｇｅｾ
BRUNSWIC
QuEBEC
ONTAFl 10
MANITOBA
SASKATCH
ALBERTA
8,COlUMB
11!.
0.
44.
1&2.
222.
21.11.1.
3111.
(11'1&.
Sill.
&12.
bb7.
&8a.
671.1.
&52.
0.
137 •
3911.
5 9 5.
722.
1127.
17<>Q).
2183.
2481.
2&72.
27"3.
27 6 3.
2681.1,
25kl2.
2200.
181'10.
1288,
73&.
0.
1237.
2&54,
3710.
470&,
7J09.
981'11.
11432.
1250b.
13277 •
13&15.
13511.1,
12971,
12014.
1058&.
8724.
&38&,
383&,
0,
1&1.17.
321&.
4049.
5039.
73CJ7.
7947.
78&3.
7&51.
1339.
71/131,
b&99,
b29&.
573&.
51'l21.
411 9 ,
100-"'100,
86937.
75984.
0.
4&5&.
8&01.
10841.
13 4 07.
2e1.l07.
235 7 1,
23793.
23524.
22 8 70.
21917.
20717.
1 9 25\.
17473,
15254,
12436,
89&8.
5278,
0,
2&04.
58&2.
8381l,
NI'l.FOlmo
Ｒｾ
<j1/1J II ,
Q121l\.
<)H'I Q •
</1>51 0 •
27.
4U.
74.
79.
58.
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"l';I'''''.
120.
511.
3'"
35
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11)5.
ge.
582.
7bl.
25 I,
118.
272.
137.
liS
CJIJ"II';.
9 Vii I.
Q2';"".
ＧＮＬｾ
"ItS<19.
?<13 •
55
;;'7"81.
6Q1
"5
70
75
133353.
"93.
287.
946.
111l u f>.
10811.
111l<j3.
1 0 82.
"
12
1'5
<ll<'
ｬＢｲｾｖＧｑＱＮ
8et
77rJ,'H.
68278.
5t. 7 711.
1119"Q.
85
＿Ｕ ｾＦＮ
P.EOOUAR
N.SCOTIA
,OTAL
'i
+="
OF COHORT SASI<ATCH
**********************************
ｌａｉｔ ｾＱ
AGE:
***
ｾＮ
ｾＮ
/jll.
5'5.
II.1CJ.
ＲｾｨＮ
2b5.
236.
196.
11l1.l.
a".
105.
259.
3118.
1.118.
?Q.I.
u
1 ".
142.
Ill".
136.
12(1.
un.
81.1.
55.
ＱｾＳ ＱｬＮ
91>4.
MH.
655.
708.
'S211.
319.
5 U l.
455.
337.
2r.l5.
2"l82.
1771,
Ｂ｡ＷＴｾＮ
6101.14.
1.13215,
323b').
27U7.
2403&.
21733.
19924,
18301.
Ib703,
14884.
1291",
10523,
71>03.
4547.
ＱｾＷＹＳＮ
15326.
181.132.
20292.
2154&,
221.1119.
23133,
2349&.
23334,
Ｒｾ
1".
20540.
11707.
13&74.
8675.
kEC,ION OF COHORT
ａｔｒｅｾｌａ
AGE
ｾａｉｔ ｾＱ
***
.I*** •• **.*.A*.**********.********
TPTAL
ＮＧ ［ｾ
FOll"1n
P.€lJOUAR
N.scnfu
BRUNswIC
QUEBEC
ONTARIO
""NITOB.
SASKATCH
ALBERTA
0,
5b8,
1112.
Illbl.
1722.
2229.
2777 •
30b5.
3171.
31B7,
3152.
309O,
2959,
272b,
241b,
2008,
147&.
893.
0,
Hl0000.
870.
lb08.
2067.
234&.
2458.
2782.
3123.
3237.
3294,
3287.
3255,
3143.
2923.
26bb,
22 9 7,
1757.
111 9.
919119.
8I1b77.
78721.
•
0.
1II.
t'l.
0.
\'I.
111.
QJA2 J.
'
18.
38.
124.
355.
469.
550.
b3.
1&7.
C'12.
411&.
b90.
859.
12&2.
'11',\ 1 3.
3Q.
b8.
911.
1VI 1 •
139.
218.
274.
29\.
Hi'o.
314.
'::is
ＮＹＵｾｬｴｂ
31f, •
｢ｾ
ｦ＾ＳｾＢＳＮ
Ｗ Ｓ ｾＮ
H5.
292.
251;.
213.
1';<;.
92.
1139.
252&,
3bbl.
11581.
b305.
8311b.
9859.
10912.
11723.
121112.
12097,
l1bb2,
10824,
954b.
7878.
5777 ,
3477,
1/1
ｊｈｴｬｾＧＢ Ｑ
5
pi
'17&31.
15
97t<3i3.
'lh931.
91:>2 Q7.
Ｒｾ
25
32'
35
4(:\
lI5
ＮｾＴＷＵＹ
ＹＵｾ ＶＮ
9U<'<I(,'.
Q?9SI.
Ｕｾ
b5
&8 4 22.
5b82'5.
41998.
25 11 44.
HI
7S
1\0
85
51:1.
bb.
':>9.
87.
116.
137.
149.
144.
142.
\39.
129.
118.
1'13.
81.
53.
1>'\8.
854.
10211.
11.53.
11&5.
1111.
1159,
1105.
10311.
915.
757.
559,
3110.
ＲＸｾＮ
332.
380.
4b?.
596.
bb7.
718.
734.
71b.
b87.
b37,
5b8.
1178.
355.
21b.
ＱＸｾＹＮ
2272.
25b5.
2154,
2848,
26117.
2752.
25b3,
22117.
1831.
130b.
7113.
13719.
bb475.
59255.
53501.
4 9 415.
45905.
42513.
39i!22.
35747.
31898.
27497,
22099,
15703,
9084,
ｂｾｕＮｌｏｃＮｂ
0,
281111,
flb35.
9937.
12b55.
lb290.
1 9 132.
212&1,
22714.
237tl9,
211708.
25218,
25154.
2 11 303.
22190.
1 9 1b0.
111828,
9112b.
\0
U1
INITIAL
*.*
*.****.*.*****.***.***************
111
5
10
15
ＮｬＱｉ Ｇ＼ｾＺ ｃ Ｑ
Nrj.FOUND
P.EOOUAR
C3.
t'l.
<171\.'7.
975b2.
4 S.
b3.
90'!.
<173111.
Ｒｾ
25
50
35
42
115
50
55
<1.,2 HI.
Q5654.
HI
7'5
80
85
ｾｅｇｴ｡ｎ
TOTAL.
91:l8.8? •
60
b'5
OF COHORT
tl.COL,UM8
AGE
94 Q39.
<14 ")S2.
ｾｉＮ
1?3.
1 9 2.
?<l9.
＿ｾＱ ＧＬ
Cl2bil7.
30 I •
9ilbll7.
1\"/577.
830 7 7.
7&';1:\2.
b7SQ8.
5"rHI'I.
41511.
25159.
ＳｾＰＮ
292.
i!79.
257.
226.
1 9 0.
13<1.
83.
- ..
8.
34.
72.
87,
74.
ｾｉ Ｎ
\ 17•
.. 138.
152.
.__ 1118.
1113.
140.
131.
11 9,
103.
81,
52,
N.SCOTIA
BRUNswIC
0.
0.
bll,
155.
215.
2b8,
335.
1153.
550.
597.
6111,
b63.
b48.
b311.
595.
530.
445.
329,
200.
- --
13':>.
3311.
1171.
5211.
bl>3,
839,
H10'; ,
llt1fl.
1146.
1147.
1124,
1072.
1012.
898.
7114,
550,
Bb,
QUEBEC
ONTAR J 0
MANITOBA
SASKATCH
"LBERTA
B,COLUMB
0.
0,
1058,
2261.
3338',
11240,
59b0,
8147.
9b1l4,
10&08,
11309,
l1b59,
11585,
11113,
10311.
9099.
7511.
5508.
3313,
I'l,
3b7,
T82.
103111.
1180,
15bl,
207'5,
2302,
23&8,
23bfl.
23115.
i298.
221b.
20117.
1845,
1560.
llb5.
717.
0,
314.
E>55,
887.
1\', 9 e. ,
1228,
1445,
16bl,
1749.
1824,
1877.
1889.
1832,
1758.
1655,
0,
14 76,
U00""',
94t'190,
89589·.
8b227.
831 99 ,
77759,
715",b,
67392,
b1l427,
6168Q,
591180,
50948,
53721,
4(j30&,
113340,
35873,
26b15,
1b157,
211'i.
519.
752.
928.
1357,
1992.
2111b,
2718.
ＬＵｾＹＲ
2981,
29blll,
2858.
2"53,
2324.
18911,
1350,
7bb,
ＬｾＵＱＳ
14&9.
1I?93,
5ibB,
7180,
8919.
9602.
10062,
10155,
1004&,
9b8Q,
9i!11,
8513.
75&0.
6281,
1155,
755,
i!77 9.
4&19,
lXPrCTATIONS OF LIFE
Ｊ Ｎ Ｊ ｾ ＪＮ
AGE AGｾ
,."'.
'"
5
1(11
1']
if F". A TFr.
.... ***,,.. ...
..
.\ r. [
,.
., .... F OUNO
P.ErJOUAR
N.5COTtA
BRUNSiIlIC
OUEln:C
ONTARIO
MANITOBA
SASI(ATCI1
ALBERTA
B.COLUMB
ＨＺＧＮ＿ｦ｜ｾＰ＿Ｂ
Vl. ＱＧｃｾＺｱ＿
5
f'.?'lQ716
"'. ;:>tU ll 33
'Il. 27 7 Ij'lt>
ｾ • "I. F\:3 II t.
?631QI>q
2.llq01:1Q7
2.hllblb6
?575bQ\I,
2./188771'1
I. Q1H\190
1.11o?423
1.461?31
I.Q2/1741t.
1.3711877
1.31 eHfl8
1.2373%
1.1341353
1.021 .. '-1
0.q1d4522
0.78b510
0.1,7211:18
0.563915
0.4619'1'1
0.36'14('\5
0.28b222
0.2169&5
0.164H3
2. 8 12795
2.8862"''1
2.86351,2
2.811>267
2.7'52918
2.I>t>0522
2.514210
2.3jCn53
2.1'196'137
1.861i'llq
1.&1765'1
1.3801 q b
1.152'.J39
l1I. q 38"6Q
0.7112151
0.564Q05
0. 4 15476
0.2Q8332
16. t>5f\l/lIl':i
,5'1. 11')11 U/,;>
12.'Hbl>72
11.613454
10.2 4 1526
8.872ql>1
7.557136
&.30q545
5.144446
4.0112qQ6
3.1&04Q6
2.39&753
1,82QQa5
0.72 q Q83
e1.7Q70111
0, ＷＴｾｈＱＳｱ
0.725500
0.701>856
0.6IHH1911
0.6H576
0.588555
0.5312'17
0,471424
1,lq7501
1.230187
1,225513
1,213111
l,l q :l307
1.15q342
1.0q575&
1.'1)11014
0.q154qq
0.8144fl4
0.710488
0.60663q
0.5UJq47
0.41Q673
0.338273
0.265341
0.205Q38
0.164339
2.54548q
2.bI3340
2,5q8711
2.567534
2.523225
2. ＴｾＰ｣ｈＲ
2.335/>08
2.1 11 8002
2.1'118&08
1.83211&
0.3':>05/12
0.2114640
0.243111 9 2
0.1Ql>81111
0.155019
0.1206Ql
0.0'15750
0.332254
e1.340744
0.:H7Q32
0.333058
0.32b9ql
11I.31bH8
0.3"'l11131
0.2831 4 7
0,2b\'lb43
0.235932
0.20'l277
0.181632
111.154763
0,129'H3
0.107338
0,08&&39
0.0611430
0.057113
N.SCOTIA
BRUIIISWIC
QUEBfC
ONTARIO
MANITOBA
SA5KATCI1
AL,BERTA
B.COl.UMB
ＲｱＮＵＸＷＱＭｾ
5.II IH517
6.(lI.s7b5
25.31 7 724
ＧｩＮＹｾ Ｓ ＼ＡＲ
ｾＮｱＳ＿ａｮｨ
ＲＱＮｾ ｲ［ｬ｡Ｐ
5.7"'<l35Q
3.683 11 b3 ＱＦＮＲｾＶＸＯＱＶ
3.767225 16.5415'l7
3.737231 16.341>3';2
16,0lt19B:'I4
ＳＮ｢ＶＷ ｾＶ
3.57&4/,0 15.588313
3. Q37<121 14.868792
3.217666 13,775S22
2.'1/12"66 12.5177&1
2.634b18 110183101
2.31/1806 Q,837223
1. 9 '18215 ＸＮＧＵｾＱＷＰＵＱ
1.bQ3664 7,223412
1.4.,5423 6.015727
1.1364'18 4.8'18258
0.&QI 4 0Q 3,886450
0.66Q774 2,981447
2.22540Q
1", 48 1 6 21
0.337&26 1.&&&877
1,10 4 0 5 1
1.1251'l7
1.10'1593
1,\'\72 Q24
1.037 87 2
0. 9 88261
0.91708Q
0.833771
0,74362Q
0,652751
0,561727
0.47880 Q
0. 4 004b8
0,328Q68
0,2642 4 3
0.21115b79
0,156&75
0.121457
0.532929
0.541474
11I,52Cib86
"'.51/1'17Q
0,4Q71 8 0
0,478211
2,433836
2,482836
ＰＮｑＵＳｱ＿ｾ
3.'1432'10
4.11'11'11/11
3. '12.1 886
3.779102
3.6.18511 7
3.385511
3.107351
2.1\11111131
2./1933'12
2.18/1111/13
1.1l1i28118
1.5'18184
1.3351'1117
1.0 9 2234
0.871t-25
0.671283
0.5011111>'1
0,3 7 2632
3.Q47550
4.037402
4.005612
3.q39il72
3.852630
3.72/1432
3.536Q73
3.305&88
3.0430Q2
2.71,1'536
2.4&1&48
20151320
1,8'14/1Q4
1.5'11133'5
l.i7183Q
1.O16618
0,195416
0,627942
"I
ＷｾＮＱ ｾＵ ｾ ｑＳＮＵｾ ＲＵＷ
6 'I • .? (' '11 ｾＮＱ［
5
h'l.' 'ib3t'U
1 Ｈｾ
15
ＢＳｍＷ｣ｾＮｪＨ｢
2C1
?'i
ＵｾＮＱｾＷＧｬＷＯＱ
301
4e;
'5r:"
4'i.3</3'J:'I9
/I ;:'I • I. 7 ｾ ｾ ;1 ｾｉ
3b.C1 11 3 Q (
31./191\4 11 /1
25
3[:\
3'5
Q'"
/I'i
ＹｾＲＱ［Ｇ｜Ｎｮ｣
ｾＵ
'='5
23. ＿ｾｓｴＮＵｾ
Ｔｾ
TOTAL
｜ｬｴ Ｏ［＼ｾｩＧ＿Ｗ
'j<i.<;jl,llIJ?
｜ＯＮｾＵＧ
1.1','13
35
lid T1 AL ｾ F[; I "/., nF t: (l fl nRT ＧｾｉＮｆｏｕｎｮ
*** ••• *.*****-***** •• * •• **-****** •
l q • 1'1'1"",,,
lc;.b7/14Q7
12.5'1':;>4;8
.. Q.6b4188
7.:3115(:,1
__ 85.
5.5638b8
?C'
55
1.\'1
ｾ｢
&'5
7t1J
75
8e
6'i
7(-1
75
lie
85
",I • 3 I I" Q 5 5:;.3,2'11'11
.; q • <; 1 ;:> 4 'i 1 ｪｩＭＱＮｱＷＨＢｾＴ
5/1.71/1230 ｾ Ｎｦ｜Ｗ＿Ｔｕ｢
Ｑ ＮｑｍＳＶｾＳ
23.326214
ｾＧＯｉ ｊＧＬＲＮｓｾ
2Qi.3h730h
ｬＱ ＶＲｩＧｾＮＬＺＨｉＯ
17.7'J?21\7
3';.7973;»1 Ｑ｣［Ｎｾｨ ＴＢＯｉ
31.2q<1QI5 1:5.16<;;>08
21,. '125<;77 ＲｾｲＱＢＷ｜Ｎ
q.B?';Ilr;
Ｒ Ｎａｬｾｉ＾ｱｑ
ｯｾ［ｲ｜ｩＷｑＮＱｉ
7.1-.6f\9?h
15. IJ5e.":35 &.1799(;&
12.n Q217 /1.1\6/11 en
Q./17732 Q ＳＮｾｑＱＷＨ
7.1/1'1452 2.719557
5.3Hl2aq I.Q7U6St>
..
AGE
INITIAL
"'''''''
_
ｾｆｇｉＨｬｎ
Ｓｾ
35
/112'
I)
'5
5'il
5'5
6i1
65
Ｗｾ
75
80
85
ＢＮｾ｢ｉＱｬＴＱ
0.0496/13
OF COHORT
ＰＮＷｂＶ Ｒｾ
1'1.113[,'1174
ＲＱｾｬＭｴｱ ＯＮＰ
0.:37371014
0.283357
16.1 9 2345
1'5.440588
ｬｑＮＲＸＷｾＧＵ
ＰＮＴＱｩＢｈｾＦ
ＱＮｾＳＲ ＵＰ
1.43108&
1.233614
1,0 Q3079
21.8&5015
0.70111714
0.5604q&
".452720
P.EOOUAR
P.EPOlJIIR
ＳＮＵＷｾＸ｢ｑ
ｾＮｱＷ＿ＱＵ
U.?7;>I IJ 8
ｾｱＮ ［＾ＷｵＳ
ＷＮＳ ＷｾＲ
",."llC'S?2 17.8/11>853
0.8711755 lQ.I\II!>IIf13
12.f>353q(ll
ＱＵｾＢＲＶＮＧＱ
1'I.711331ll 1"".1132&78
9.?f\321 9
Ｑ ＧＮｾ ｩ ｉｬＱＵ
11'.5753<;5 7. ｱＲＺｾｦ＾ＳＵ
6.72 2f. h;\
? (j 'IS;' 7 i?
"./11'15'12 5.hS?3S 9
0.357'155 /1.1>912'14
71.28/,3 11 " 3.82 Qll bQ
0.227 Q 21:1 ＴＱＲｾＶＰＮＳ
001744(8 2.395631
1('1.1283 7 6 1.1}28'171
'5.545 9 55
l'I.1'!92HI
･ＢｕｱＲＷＮｬＱｾ
5?,. ｜ＢＲｓＳｾｬ｡
/15 ＰＵｾＧＶ ＲＮ
/l1}l.c;5>1667
35.'1"'\1:11
31./lv'9'''118
2 7 • 1 ｾＱ .,' 1 '3 u
Ｒ＿ＱＷ Ｇ＾ＮｾＲ
ＰＮＱＳｾＧｩＷＹ
l?'.1If"84<l
0.OIq28/,4
21.[:\7617'5
ＰＮｑｾＲｱ＿
ＷＢＮＲＳｾ
h
0.1q3d79
0.172755
111.151':>';2
N".F (llJ"!)
ｨｱＮｾＷ＼ｬｑ｢
5
10
15
2('1
<'5
ｾＮＲＱＵＲＷＢ
2.17'11115
l.q7?9H
1.76'lb78
1.55032 4
1.3113512
1.145198
1'1.'1590';'1
11,.88t>106
ＱＶＮＧＵ ｾＸＷｱＳ
"''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
TOTAL
U
ｾＮＲＧＳｈｲ ＺＭ
\,\.23 5 7Q/\
ＵＸＹｾＶＳＮＡＨ
ＱＷＮｾ ＷＵＸＱ
l q .211-2V:4
15.721"<;<1
12. 5 "33'18
q.72b53q
ＱＮＴＢＧｾＸＷ｢
ＵＮｾＬＩｈＧｉｑｱ
5.116276
4.119081:13
4.23859&
3.77/1545
3.315b/ll
2.81-61'1"'1>
ＲＮｑＹＵＦｾ
2.l'I21Q24
1.&501&7
1.31/1753
1.11112333
ｾＮＷＵＦｑＱＷ
ｾＬＵ｢ＱＴ Ｗ
ＷｾＲ ＵＴＬＲ
ＰＮＴＵＳＴｾＸ
2,407002
2,357571
2.2&1704
2,101731
0,41Q168
0.379/112
0.339875
0.3008'l7
0.21.2057
0.225013
0.1Q0813
0.15Q018
0.128 Ci 23
0,102b24
0,08324Q
1.H7788
1,504184
1,301Q&2
101081&3
0,Q27118
0.75'1524
0.60&Q20
0,47111232
0.357121
0.278488
ＱＬｑｕｾＷＹＸ
I
\0
0'1
AI;E
ｌａｊｔｉｾｬ
***
TOTAL
ｾ
5
1 ｾＬ
15
Ｒｾ
2"
3Yl
30;
11i1l
7?Q4195!'o
b'l."II7ga
011.
'if':.1\ ｾＸＱ Ｇｾ
'15.7 y,1,52
ul.i'11387
5::\
&r>
65
Ｗｾ
75
aPt
ae.;
t.". fOUN!)
ｃｉｾｓｎｕｒｬｆ
'l.Q53521'l
e.Qf,Q271
"'.&192111
0.&912117
(1.' "IQ'}"I0
C'I.l"1l131
Po ｾ［＼ＩＱＳｾＬ＿Ｎ
ＹＲＱＷ｢ｬＮｾ
ｲｾＮ ｊＱｦＬ ＧＲ
'l.lb3Sq",
ＱＰ Ｎ＼ｪｾｬＧ Ｒ｢Ｗ
ｾＮ｢Ｗ ｢ＯＮＵ
ｾＮｉ ｦＭ ｬＳＱＮ
0.4189&2
0.11823;:>11
0 .....H\761
Ol. HI;:>2111
0.71113&3
l'I.b391155
0.5b2 Qtl3
0.&52"121
0.&233&b
0.59111&7
111."'511111)5
0.511'15i'l3
0. J'b"284
tlI.4C/1&7C/1I1
(lI.,9f,!lP.8
<1.1"1(>'11\,:.,
"1.1"'''7117
0.171,1,113
ｾＮＱＦＲｱＳＸ
ＲＹＢｬｵ Ｎｾ
C'l.13 q 22 11
0. 13 ｾｪ 1173
Ol.12i1 JU>lb
ＦＱ ＹＸｾＱＮＢ
ＸｱＬｾｬｦＦＢＮＱＲ
ＲＵＱＴｾＳＮ Ｒ
('1."9hI92
1.'1.09;,.,97
(Il. (lI8 '12/J 1
0.t'l7.?118&
19 • tJ 524?3
15.Bill tJ lJVl
12.1.111 4 11
9.IH'30QQ
7. (111)997
5.70/l098
Ol. (;\11;1111.,9
1'1."'&551111
C/I.tlI52131
＿ＱＳ ＶｊＱ Ｎｾ
ｃＧＮ ＲＳＹ ｑＱｾ
ｾＮｑｊＳ Ｕ Ｑ
V'I.f,l?'l<;37
".LlI21297
QI.0?&317
0.02051 11
5117 &
0.0 IJ I9"9
('I • ｜ｾ
ｾＮＳＵＲＱＹ
0.299'17C)
QI.3iJ5&98
e.?AI93"l
0.C'?1l317
"'.172663
0.12'l"9&
111.09&187
ＳＸｾＱｑＵＲＮＰ
AGE
**********-***********************
ill
II'"
lie;
50
55
Hl
&5
7rlJ
75
8 III
85
ＰＮＲｾＴＰ Ｕ
0.162294
0.1247115
0."'93390
0.0&9369
2.&1l858B
2.f>Q8123
2.&5q4Q&
2.591738
2. 5 11"2 7
2.111211S11
2.272S32
2.O922&3
1.885&29
1.&bf>51\1
1.441112&
1.225&&4
l.lII159P13
0.818 4 84
0.&391 4 1
0.478363
0.344227
121.240&89
MMI I TOBA
ｏｉｾａｔｎｏ
11.3115778 35.383Q80
11.55&1115 31.373350
11.389155 27.11"1 8 0
Ｑ ＮｾＸＹｓＦＸ
ＲＳＮ ＰｾＳＱＰ
10.715837
10.23/'1)85
9.58138&
8.7881113
7.9111252
&.99871121
&.0b9tl95
5.159857
4.2 9 4903
3.4922&8
2.770138
2.12&12131
1.5949&8
1.19512154
19,87b675
1&.8&b3 q 2
111.5321120
12.225123
ll1J.40995&
8.81321 7
7.393503
&.131847
ＵＮｾｈＧＷＴ Ｆ
4.0(/1HH0
3.131 46 1
2.3&8871
1.7&1219&121
1.338&41
Nw.FOUND
P.EOOUAR
N.5COTIA
BRUNSIOIC
QUEBEC
ONTARIO
MANITOB4
7?'l11)IB3
,.,9. 78'i5(,:(1
ｬ＾ＧＱ Ｎ｡ｾ
(1U
ＢＧｾＮ ＱｬＹｉｊ
\2
!'i5."3"'2bI5
Si'l.1I At>7\:l
4b • Ｌｨｾ ｾ 2 3 7
(/I.15qg39
Yi.l&3/l91
V'i.Ql8513 7
1'I.1Il116877
0.1115229
1'\."2 11'172
'
e.&2C/1786
0. bC""43Vl
O.569779
0.56777&
121.373507
0.3'.12291
121.3777&9
QI.3bA&70
0.3585112
0.346811
1. 11 57184
1.4923/l1i!1
1. 48 1675
1. 459239
1.432615
1.3945"'&
1.3?79112
1.2.B8b&
1.1205;:>1
0. 9 96832
0./Ib81/l52
111.739357
0.614356
0.496039
0.31179115
0.290114&
0.208883
0.145491
7.528881
7.&970O&
7.&12'153
7.4&411"
7.2851.11&
7.022478
4.&4834&
4.72948&
4.&13981
4."3&2&b
4.22/l?19
3.929119
3.5119510
3.15btll72
2.770712
2. 4 04171
2.05880 4
1.735846
1.43&218
1.1&2&121&
0.91 8 tl&9
0.702077
0.52&513
0.40098&
Ｑｬ Ｎ［Ｚ＾ＹＢｉｬｾｨ
Ｓ｢Ｎ Ｇｬ ｩ ｾＱ
3?. II S'l Q,;
27.7<15051
?3.5851i?'
19.&8"'53 11
J{>.,1747J4
12.1li:!80 11 9
9.C)20757
7.533"",;
5.7116791
;>I.I.,Q,:>/l9
"l.15&lbl
et.l'H q l2
ｾＮ ｂＵ＼Ｑ ｖＧＡ
QI. Cl" 3"47
ｾＮＰｐＮｾＵＷＱ
ｾＮｑｬＷＯＱ ｾＰ
V1.lllllHil
0.J7ilf>!\S
ｾＮＵＳ ＸＵＰ
11. Bt'I.HI3
"'.133/>(13
C'I.I i:'(/I8iJS
Ｂ Ｎｦ｜ｮｑｴＭｾＹ
CI'.4'1/l397
P.'.44'i6Q'j
('1.3911313
0.3112'>37
0.292:;150
0.3C1'7553
O.2795&8
'l.2 4 8f199
0.216927
PJ.16543&
fIl.155?93
0.1nQib4
0.1011161
0.078189
ｾＲＵＳ｢ｬＧ ＮＰ
Qio1V,7!l3b
ｾＮｉ ｓＦｨＹｾ
ＰＮｾＹＳＷＨｬＷ
0.06&911
QI.(/Ill'l7bfl
QI.Lol4319&
0.031,,790
ｑｉＮｾＢＧＯｊｱＱｬＳ
ＢＮＱ ｬＳｾ｢ｉｬＲ
0.04313&
OI.03?851l
:1l.Q12/l171
I1'.Pl17291
0.C1I2S1"'1
0.01201"13
0.1'11':'&41
1'1.012121
ｾＮｩＱｬ ｜ＰｉＩＢＱ
B.COl.UH8
2.177509
2.805184
7.1023&9
7.230311
7.1111103
&.9011&0
&.&38b6&
11.&8&851
11.917381
11.7711538
11.1195831
11.133&31
10.&5833&
U.022311Jl
9.2731149
8.45551&
7.&lanll
&.732344
5.8&1339
5.01219&82
4.1 9 1882
3.433532
2.736325
2.143240
1.&87&71
ＲＮＷｾＹＳＵ
2.5 7 2390
2.111118&9
2.2483711
2.0&730&
1.8 7 1269
1.&713&O
1. 47 2981
1.2 7 82 IJ 7
1.121924&&
0.919123
0.7&0713
11I.618H18
121.469817
121.38318&
0.31!l&64i!
ＦＮＲＸＹＳｾＰ
5.8101.151
5.253158
4.&&&717
4.0H585
3.5139731
l.9&9&8&
2.4&7515
2.008282
1.597721
1.232829
0.Cf3&47&
0.72812134
\0
\0
TOTAL
ｑｉＮｬｦ＾ＲｾＢ Ｑ
Al.BERTA
ｾｃｔａｋｓ
SASKATCH
***
ｒｅｇｉｮｾ
OF COHORT
ＰＮＱｉｾＷＵＴＶ
ＴＳＩｬｉ ｊ ｩＮｾ
INITIAL
5
IL'I
15
211:
25
30
35
QUEBEC
N.Sr..OTIA
I 111,2&1'
t'I.li)<14&1
I'l. I 121-, II ...
31.8?9815
MANITOI'lA
".EOOllAR
iii.
ＦｈＧＢ ｾＮｨＳ
II'"
.,,,
ＷＵＧＡｉＩｾ＼
.,Q.1\7f-t'"Q
S'5.15 7 11111
OF COHnRT
ｾｮｊ ｅｈ
*.* •• Ｊ ＪＮ ＪＮ Ｊ Ｊ Ｎｾ Ｊ Ｎ｟Ｊ Ｊ ｾ
ＰＮｾＱｬＳＨ｜Ｘｂ
0.19 9 il40
0.1511177
0.121424
QI.fl9P1B';4
0.06&945
ｾｬｑ｢ＸＵｬｐＮＰ
0.043385
ＦＮ｢ｉＴｾＷ
6.tlI9S7&3
5.5150112
4.8950Z8
4.257107
3.&252&7
3.O1912&
2.453951
1. 911 3 4 12
1.48&887
1.110793
0.82&781
SASI<ATCH
ALBERTA
B.COLUI'IB
29.994755 13.8279211J 14.225282
25.9Cf352& 14.0755 tl1 9 14.53"09&
ＲＱＮＸＵｾＳＲ
13.7&2953 1 4 .34711&3
18.17201& 13.290278 ＱＴＮｾｉ ｃＦＳ
11.1.905835 12.732174 13.5871Z1
12.2891,116 11.938378 12.999919
10.37651& 10.854304 12.190155
8.11 7 5097 9.&77144 11.250298
7.587901 8.502248 10.235373
&.45/.6I(lS 7.3&1,759 Cf.1687&3
5.4'14483 6.287f>41 8.12b1481
4.535773 5.281309 7.O&7440
3.721384 4.35&749 b.029817
2.99'U08 3.519445 5.e32395
2.3&851.18 2.775&92 4.10588&
1.81&407 2.118795 3.2536&1
1.37&781 1.590501 2.530921
1.075&4l 1.222110 1.97&040
klGION
COHORT
ａｔｾｅｩｉｌａ
AGf
ｾａｉＧ ｎｉ
***
-* •• ***.*-.*.*.**.*-*******.******
T 01 ＭＧＮｾ
.4
5
I ?'
15
ｾｲ
25
3'·'
35
4'i'1
1.15
ｾＵ
55
Ｖｾ
b5
701
75
80
85
1.... ｾｉＱＧ｛Ｗ
u9. ＷｾｲＧ ＯＭＵ
1>11.1\63514
ＡＩｾＧＮ
rJ(' 7.' <;5
'>5.Ydil9b
5".f>5""17
ｬ｣ｾＬＮｑｪｾＮＩＧＴ
41.23''1152
3b.5i116f,7
5? .eS /J3Bb
2 7 .I.IIH5\J
23,521\/10"
19 ,1:1!l3'Slb
lb,".5/173CJ
12,796979
9,9;'10739
7.513520
5.775552
ﾷ ｬｾ
•
F (1,! ｾＧＱＩ
ｕｾ
p. t-
ｾｬ
flU AR
ｪｾ
•
SC(l TI A 8Io1UNSI'I!C
QUfHEC
ONTARIO
HANITOfJA
SASKATCH
1.5<'1'\241>
1.5411b4Pl
1.534849
1. 5r'lll 738
1. 4 7bb77
1.4313111
1.35IH>99
1.2b(/l325
1.143455
1.Qllb243
0.684005
b.721>973
6.847479
b.H7172
b.b21831
&.443B81Z1
1.<:129784
1. 9 511187
1. 9 1 9 048
1. 8 5b831
1.784436
1.b93b37
1. 5 72728
1. 4 2 9 851
1,277413
1,1241J0
0. 9 73':141
0,829HIil
0.692232
ＲＵ｢ＬｦＱｉＮｾ
ｪｾ ｬ ｢ＢＮＧ
r..17'i51\1>
V'l0l77212
(1.17343P1
"'.11,93'1"
001b Q212
",.1<,5;\111:>l.lQ3H3
0. !3Cl3r.q
ｾＮｖＧｬＢ ｩｦＬＲ
0.1>79843
1'l.f,'l17118
1Il.41'l'nl>i'
0.41""'i2
ＢＧＮ ＬＱ｜ ｾＳｉ＾ｴｬ
ＱＧｬＮｦ＾ｂｾｱｐｬＳ
ＢＮＴＱ ｾＹＸ
" • 0 /.I ? :, 'i 5
ｃＧｉＮＢｾ
ＰＮｃｾＷＧｩＲＸＴ
". t. 3" r! 112
0."0",9b2
0.367284
0.3713':11
fI.3515Qll
ｾＩＮｑｬｈＳＢ｜
｢ＵＶ＿ｉｗＮｾ
0.",f,775""
O!, cit,! 5'1b
ＰＬｬｾＵＯｪＷ Ｖ
ｾＮｬ ｢ＢＧ＿Ｓ
V'i.h'l'114
ｩＱＬｾＴＷｂＹ｢
ｾＮ＼ＱＸ｢ＹＲＷ
t'!.01.11374
"'.1-1351"'''
Ｎｾ
,12'1569
1'l,f'l2 i1 1 1J3
0.01 9 319
0. O! 1 ｾ｜Ｑ 4(;j
0.011783
f'I.,,7?b42
iII.r-5119B1
"', ＢＧｊｉＬＵＹｾ
0.035384
lil.l'I2591l9
0.lillBSb2
0.?12c!l'Il
Q!.llJ ll b71
0.129504
0.V'i9&873
0.071521
0.1 t1b595
0.082307
0.0b17&9
0,045871:1
BRUNSI"IC
QUEBEC
ONTARIO
MANITO!!A
SASI(ATCH
1. 6 01115b7
1.b31'l086
l,b14'192
1.5811'177
1.54'1b59
1. ＵｾｉＢＧ｢Ｔｾ
6.43357b
b,5S"'787
f;.,481b75
b,34993<:1
1.435009
1ol8<:1112
1,207752
1.18591.14
1,1 4 116115
1.U3318
1,050328
ＱＮＴＲ ｾＸ
5.b30827
5.20471&
4.715475
4.1 9 3720
3,b51.1bH
3.119239
2,&05152
2,12bbB&
1.&91478
N'" ｄｊｾｕＱＨｆＮ
P,fUOUAR
N.SCOTIA
0,bbQ939
l1I.b71>373
ＷｾＮｬＧ｜ｴＶｓＱＹ
0.1b?jIlQ
0, ,iI\S83b
ｾｯＱＯＭ＼ｬｩＳＹ｢
ｖＧｩＮｾ ＷＧＩＯｉｾ
lid
15
f,9.1l"t.1R2
I;, II./- j/ll; 34
<;9.7')471';/1
(.l,
C' ｾ
Ｇ ＢｕＧｊｦｬ｟ｾＮＵ
Ｎｾ
25
3'"
35
41d
45
r; ill , "3 <j b ') 1 b
"
ＮＬ ｴＶＲｾＱＨｩＧ
1 ',;j C; ') b
0. ,ll\b.,83
\0\ • !'I i\ 41 4 ｾＮＬ
a.",:;,A47?
101.""/61-121
ｾＵＲＸＷＳＮ｢
1'5 5 ｾ c; "
",1 C;,'45?
Il • I'I :s 149
Pl.132b?3
0.tlQA17
31.87b9QQ
ｾＮｬ ｉＧ Ｉｃ［ Ｚｉｾ
ｾＮｦＧｉ ＳＵ ｦ［ＮＱ
ｓｾ
ＲＷＬＵｾｉＳＨＡｊｱＹ
o .I,'l: 1J :534
55
bil
b5
70
75
60
85
2j,UIl,0"b
19,51.1/:1977
15,q941f>0
12,7882e-1:I
9,9,'3578
1. Ｅ ｾ Ｒ ｓ
S.750034
"".C911.H
11l ... ＷｾＬＮＭｉＵＧｩ
2,\""'')1\-'2
45,b8 9b lb
41."1 /19 \2
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0."'322f,b
0,023725
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1il.45i1851
0,348237
0.203 8 1 3
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0.503491
0.393293
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4,91b4B9
4,375tl83
3,013':140
3,253318
2,714337
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1.005954
0.751257
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5.8570 4 1
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2.151224 44.178387 15.322210
2.1761132 4O.255414 15.59Vl290
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1.924328 27,925013 14.419382
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1.367450 15.94&750 10.947282
1.2310 4 3 13.bIll412& 9.B4114Q\5
1,0/&500 11.405104 8.728101
9.52920& 7,b0343b
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0.7811455 7.76 9 192 &.1197805
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0.553312 4.683140 4.4393b5
0.423181Z1 3.&91b96 3.52b158
0,3320&9 2.752882 2.14163&
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0.2tl??117
0.22 7 949
0,194450
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0.378522
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5.849471 112.176b23
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5.347203
4.959130
4,51218737
4.028514
3,542583
3.0b5130
2.60 9 181
2.181754
1.7881b0
1.431378
1.10 8 519
0.840982
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23.723049
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7.7221
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