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2013 CY - IN Japan

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2013 CY - IN Japan
“Outlook for the Arctic Shipping from the
Japanese ship owner’s Perspective
-2016 Summer”
北極海運に関する邦船社からみた
2016年夏の展望
2nd.June,2016, Tokyo, JAPAN
Japan Norway Arctic Science and Innovation Week 2016
Hiroyuki GODA 合田浩之
Ph.D, Manager
Government and Industrial Affairs Group
Management Planning Headquarters
Nippon Yusen Kaisha Ltd.
日本郵船㈱渉外グループ 調査役
[email protected]
1
Contents(目次)
【1】Northern Sea Route (Northeast Passage) in
2015 - 2015年の北東航路/北極海航路
【2】Northwest Passage in 2015
2015年の北西航路
【3】Outlook for the Future Arctic Shipping
北極海運の将来展望
[email protected]
2
【1】Northern Sea Route (Northeast Passage) in 2015
2015年の北東航路/北極海航路
(1)Destination shipping is Major.
Transit shipping is miner.
北極圏を目的地とする海運が太宗。欧亜の近道としての利用は僅少。
(2)Yamal peninsular, Gulf of Ob is
the center for “the Destination”. ヤマル半島/オビ湾関連貨物が中心
(3)Non Russian Flag Vessels got permission from NSRA
ロシア・北極海航路局から通航許可を得た非ロシア船(4) Most of ship owners,
which has interested in the Arctic, think Brake bulk Cargo is most promising. 北極に関
心のある大方の船会社は,コンテナに入らない大きく,重く,長尺の貨物部門が有望
とみて投資。
(4) Most of ship owners, which has interested in the Arctic, think Brake bulk Cargo is
most promising. 北極に関心のある大方の船会社は,コンテナに入らない大きく,重く,
長尺の貨物部門が有望とみて投資。
(5)Cargo related Japan(日本関連貨物)
[email protected]
3
(1)Destination shipping is Major.Transit shipping is miner.
北極圏を目的地とする海運が太宗。
欧亜の近道としての利用は僅少。
Table1.Cargo Volume of Northern Sea Route
Unit : million ton
C.Y.
2013
2014
2015
Transit Shipping
1.30
0.30
0.10
Destination Shipping
2.80
3.70
4.50
Total
4.10
4.00
4.60
Russia Deputy Ministry of Transport Mr.Olersky
(The BarentsObserver 2015/10/17)
C.Y.
Suez Cana Transit
Suez Canal Authority
2030
5.00
78.00
83.00
Unit : million ton
2013
2014
754.46 822.34
[email protected]
4
Via NSR as Transit total 4 vessels.
NSR 0.3% vs. Suez Canal 99.7%
[email protected]
5
Arctic Liner shipping may become
economically feasible around 2040
, if the ice cover continues
to diminish at the present
rate. – CBS Maritime,
Jan.2016.
北極海航路を経由したコ
ンテナ海運(定期船海運)
が経済的にひきあうのは,
2040年あたりか。
[email protected]
6
(3)水深の浅い箇所Shallow Draft:
大型船は通れない。Large vessels can not sail
15m
New Siberian Islands
(Sannikov Strait)
12m
中東からの大型原油タンカー,
アジア―欧州航路の大型コンテナ船
鉄鉱石輸送の大型ばら積み貨物船
は通れません。
[email protected]
7
欧州航路(インド洋・スエズ運河経由)は,
世界最大船型のコンテナ船が就航する檜舞台。
Largest Containerships assigned Asia-Europe Trade
40.0
コンテナ船のコンテナ1個当たりの運送費
(2011年6月の時価)
35.0
米 30.0
ド
ル
/
コ 25.0
ン
テ
ナ
一
20.0
本
運送費/TEU/日
Power (運送費/TEU/日)
15.0
10.0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
船の大きさ(1隻あたりのコンテナの積載本数)
[email protected]
8
Economies of Scale
⇔ 小型船では,割高な輸送費に
ばら積み貨物船の貨物1トン当たりの運送費
(2015年7月 時価)
0.80
0.70
米 0.60
ド
ル
/ 0.50
重
量
ト
ン 0.40
運送費/MT/日
Power (運送費/MT/日)
0.30
0.20
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
船の大きさ(1隻あたりの載貨重量トン)
[email protected]
9
航行日数の事前の予見可能性 Predictability of Transit Time
≒気象/氷況の予測の精度
通過所要日数(2013年)
Transit Time (2013 CY)
「ばらつき」が多い…
北極海航路情報室データ
NSRA Information Office
Vessels
20day~
18-20days
16-18days
14-16days
12-14days
10-12days
~10days
Total
1
2
1
6
9
4
1
24
最長Max. 22days 15hour
最短Min. 7days 10hour
平均Avg. 13days 23hour
神戸大学海事科学部
石黒一彦准教授による。
Associate Prof. K.Ishiguro, Kobe
Univ.
※砕氷船の到着待ちで洋上で停
泊ということも,しばしばありま
す。Vessels often have to wait
until Ice breaker arrive.
[email protected]
10
(2)Yamal peninsular, Gulf of Ob is
the center for “the Destination”. ヤマル半島/オビ湾関連貨物が中心
Destination Shipping at NSR 2015
NSR Cargo Transportation
Unit:Million Ton
C.Y.
2013
2014
Transit
1.176
0.274
Destination
2.738
3.709
Total
3.914
3.983
Mr.A.Olshevskiy of NRSA
2015
0.04
5.392
5.432
Oil and Products
Gas-Condensate
Coal
Ore-Condensate
Other Dry Cargo
Total
Unit:Million Ton
Discharge Load
Total
0.337
0.526
0.863
0.114
0.114
0.320
0.036
0.356
0.080
0.080
3.285
0.698
3.983
3.942
1.454
5 .3 9 6
Sabetta
Dudinka
Obskaya Guba
Pevek
Nurma-Yaha
Indiga river bar
Discharge Load
Total
1.959
0.016
1.975
0.432
0.797
1.229
0.498
0.498
0.245
0.111
0.355
0.299
0.299
0.294
0.294
Total
3.938
1.454
Mr.Vladimir Vasilyev of CNIMF
Remark
Gulf of Ob
Yenisei River
Gulf of Ob
East Siberian Sea
Gulf of Ob
Laptev Sea
5.392
“International Seminar on Sustainable Use od the Northern Sea Route” held by the Sasakawa Peace
Foundation, The Ocean Policy Research Institute on the 4th.Feb. 2016 at Tokyo, JAPAN
[email protected]
11
(1)Destination shipping is Major.Transit shipping is miner.
北極圏を目的地とする海運が太宗。
欧亜の近道としての利用は僅少。
Table1.Cargo Volume of Northern Sea Route
Unit : million ton
C.Y.
2013
2014
2015
Transit Shipping
1.30
0.30
0.10
Destination Shipping
2.80
3.70
4.50
Total
4.10
4.00
4.60
Russia Deputy Ministry of Transport Mr.Olersky
(The BarentsObserver 2015/10/17)
C.Y.
Suez Cana Transit
Suez Canal Authority
2030
5.00
78.00
83.00
Unit : million ton
2013
2014
754.46 822.34
[email protected]
12
(3)Non Russian Flag Vessels got permission from NSRA
ロシア・北極海航路局から通航許可を得た非ロシア船
Table 2.Non Russian Flag Vessels, which got
permissions from NSRA (As of Oct. 05th)
Type of Ships
No. Share
Offshore Support Vessels
13 11.7%
Vessels for Marine Engineerging
24 21.6%
Scientic Research Vessels
1
0.9%
Cruise ship
1
0.9%
Sisemic Reserch vesels
7
6.3%
Vessel for Transportation
65 58.6%
(Breakdown)
Product/Chemical Tanker
9
8.1%
Crude Oil Tanker
1
0.9%
Multi Purpose Carriers
3
2.7%
General Cargo ships
9
8.1%
Heavy Lifter
23 20.7%
Bulker
18 16.2%
Reefer boat
1
0.9%
Palet Carrier
1
0.9%
Total
111 100.0%
Hiroyuki Goda (Source NSRA)
• Construction of Plants,
Infrastructures for Yamal
Project.ヤマルプロジェク
トのプラント・インフラ建
設関連の船
• Oil and Gas development
石油開発関連の船
• Reefer Boat ; Whale meat
for Japan冷凍船(鯨肉輸
送-日本向け)
• Cruise ship belongs to
Hapag Lloyds. ドイツ船社
のクルーズ客船
[email protected]
13
(4) Most of ship owners, which has interested in the Arctic,
think Brake bulk Cargo is most promising. 北極に関心のある大
方の船会社は,コンテナに入らない大きく,重く,長尺の貨物部
門が有望とみて投資。
Table3.
Order book of Ice- Class Vessels(1AS,1A) and Icebreakers
Icebraker 1AS 1A
total
7
7
Multi-Purpose
Anchor Handling Tug/Supply
3
1
4
4
4
Multi-Purpose/Heavy Lift Cargo
3
3
Icebreaker
2
1
3
Ocean-going Salvage Tug
1
2
3
Pass./Car Ferry
2
2
Chem Parcel Tanker
2
2
Transport (Heavy Lift)
1
1
Bulk Carrier
1
1
Cement Carrier
1
1
Fully Cellular Container
1
1
LNG Carrier
1
1
Multi-Functional Support
1
1
Seismic Support
Total
8
4
22
34
source NYK, As of 1st. Nov. 2015
[email protected]
14
(2)Yamal peninsular, Gulf of Ob is
the center for “the Destination”. ヤマル半島/オビ湾関連貨物が中心
Destination Shipping at NSR 2015
NSR Cargo Transportation
Unit:Million Ton
C.Y.
2013
2014
Transit
1.176
0.274
Destination
2.738
3.709
Total
3.914
3.983
Mr.A.Olshevskiy of NRSA
2015
0.04
5.392
5.432
Oil and Products
Gas-Condensate
Coal
Ore-Condensate
Other Dry Cargo
Total
Unit:Million Ton
Discharge Load
Total
0.337
0.526
0.863
0.114
0.114
0.320
0.036
0.356
0.080
0.080
3.285
0.698
3.983
3.942
1.454
5 .3 9 6
Sabetta
Dudinka
Obskaya Guba
Pevek
Nurma-Yaha
Indiga river bar
Discharge Load
Total
1.959
0.016
1.975
0.432
0.797
1.229
0.498
0.498
0.245
0.111
0.355
0.299
0.299
0.294
0.294
Total
3.938
1.454
Mr.Vladimir Vasilyev of CNIMF
Remark
Gulf of Ob
Yenisei River
Gulf of Ob
East Siberian Sea
Gulf of Ob
Laptev Sea
5.392
“International Seminar on Sustainable Use od the Northern Sea Route” held by the Sasakawa Peace
Foundation, The Ocean Policy Research Institute on the 4th.Feb. 2016 at Tokyo, JAPAN
[email protected]
15
Discharging the construction materials at Sabetta Port
サベッタ港建設資材の陸揚げ風景
“Barents Observer” 2014/04/14
[email protected]
16
Development of Novy Port
ノヴィ港(石油積み出し港)の開発
Arctic-Info 2015/05/25
Barents Observer 2015/10/05
[email protected]
17
Cargo related Japan(日本関連貨物)
①project cargo for yamal(ヤマルLNGプラント関連貨物)
Vessel Finder 2016/01/11
[email protected]
18
(5)Cargo related Japan(日本関連貨物)
②Whale Meat(鯨肉)
[email protected]
19
Topic1:COSCO “Yong Sheng”
https://www.vesselfinder.com/news/4083-First-vessel-ever-from-China-toSweden-via-Northwest-Passage
[email protected]
20
Topic 2:Korean Flag Vessels
UAE ⇒ Sabetta/Yamal
[email protected]
21
Topic 3: Swedish Anker handling vessels
without escort by Russian Ice breaker
• Maritime Denmark
2016/01/19
[email protected]
22
【2】Northwest Passage in 2015
2015年の北西航路
• The Destination shipping is much more important
than the transit shipping at the Northwest
Passage too.北西航路でも,近道としての利用で
なく,北極圏を目的地とする海運が大切。
• Only cruise ships sailed through the all route of
the Northwest passage in summer. 北西航路を通
過する船の多くはクルーズ船。
• Transit - Northwest Passage:17 vessels in 2015.
17隻が2015年は、北西航路を「通し」で航海
(CNC 2016/04/03)。
[email protected]
23
Bulker(ばら積み貨物船)
• Iron ore shipment by Nordic Bulk Carriers Ltd. from
Baffin Island to Spain under 5 years of C.O.A.
[email protected]
24
Commercial Ice Breaker, which stood
by the Shell’s oil rig at Chukuchi Sea.
Arctia Ltd.(Finland) press release 2015/12/04
[email protected]
25
Cruise ships (クルーズ船)
not only northwest passage, but
also….
[email protected]
26
Cruise Tourisum in the Nordic Countries
(2014年 北欧諸国へのクルーズ観光)
Norway(ノルウェー)
Remark
Denmark(デンマーク)
Remark
Port
call
passenger
Port
call
passenger
寄港地
寄港隻数 訪問客数
寄港地
寄港隻数 訪問客数
Nordkapp
109 122,000
Copenhagen
313 740,000
Tromso
112,000
Sweden(スウェーデン)
Leknes (Lofoten Islands)
60,000
Stockholm
470,000
Longyearbyen (Svalbard Islands)
37,100
Finland(フィンランド)
Bergen
32,300
Helsinki
420,000
Iceland(アイスランド)
Reykkavik
105,000
Akureyri
73,000
Arctic Cruise 北極クルーズ
Faroe Island (Denmark)
35
(フェロー諸島,デンマーク領)
Greenland (Denmark)
(グリーンランド,デンマーク領)
Qaqortoq
23
14000 in 2015
Illuissat
51
8600 in 2015
NORDREGIO, State of The Nordic Region 2016 - NORDREGIO report 2016:1
[email protected]
27
【3】Outlook for the Future
Arctic Shipping北極海運の将来展望
①Destination Shipping北極圏自体を目的地と
する海運
②Transit Shipping 欧州-アジアの近道としての
北極海利用
③Japanese ship owners 邦船社の取り組み
[email protected]
28
①Destination Shipping
北極圏を目的地とする海運が有望。
http://www.ggg.gl/projects/specialty-metals-kvanefjeld/
http://www.baffinland.com/the-project/location-and-project-history/
[email protected]
29
We expect Finnish projects
フィンランドのプロジェクトへの期待
http://www.arcticcorridor.fi/
[email protected]
30
③Japanese Ship Owners
邦船社の活動
• “Sanko Odyssey”
From 31th.Aug 2011(Murmansk) to 22nd. Sep.(China)
Owner : Sanko Line, Charterer: Nordic Bulk Carriers
[email protected]
31
1.MOL; Yamal LNG Project
(商船三井;ヤマルLNGプロジェクト)
「Icebreaking」LNG Tanker (172400-cbm)
①Teekay(Canada)
6 ships
※China LNG…50%
②Mitsui OSK(Japan) 3 ships
※China Shipping…50%
③Dynagas(Greece) 5 ships
Sinotrans 25.5%
China LNG 25.5%
Dynagas 49.0%
※Dynagas got T/C (15 years)
4 standard ships in addition.
(2019~)
LNG World News 16th. JAN 2016.
[email protected]
32
2.K-Line(川崎汽船)
• For Snowvit project
• T/C to Statoil (Norway)
• From 2006
[email protected]
33
3.NYK Group 日本郵船
①ICO Terminals (Zeebrugge,Belgium)
Hub port operation, cargo handling for Yamal Project cargo
• ICO terminal is 100% NYK
Subsidiary company.
• Main business domain is
RORO Vessels (PCC)
operations.
http://www.icoterminals.com/en/news/gr
oundbreaking-ceremony-7102015
[email protected]
34
Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers
ノルウェー・日本合弁 Norway Japan J/V
• T/C to ENI, 10 years
http://issuu.com/knutsenoas/docs/
knut_n_nr1_2015_-_lavoppl__st
• Two shuttle Tankers will be
assigned to Barents Sea,
Goliat Oil Field
soon.(Company Magazine
“Knut’n” 2015.No.1,p.17.)
2013/07/13 NYK Press Release
Shuttle Tanker (123,000
DWT), ”Hilda Knutsen” and “Torill
Knutsen”
[email protected]
35
Conclusions 結論
• The driving force of shipping is cargos and
passengers, i.e. real demand. 実需が海運を新
興する。
• Commerciality of the “Arctic shipping” has
been already established in the sense of
“Destination shipping”.北極圏を目的地とする
海運は,既に商業性が確立されている。
• In Foreseeable future, the Transit shipping as
international logistics will remain rare cases.
[email protected]
36
Thank you for your kind attention!
ご清聴ありがとうございました。
“Asuka II” at Antarctica Peninsular, on 25th.Jan.2016 南極半島における「飛鳥Ⅱ」
http://www.asukacruise.co.jp/gallery/essay/index.cfm?action=detail&essay_id=1454
[email protected]
37
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